Business opportunities in Turkish Maritime Industry Marco Rensma Director MEYS Emerging Markets Research Istanbul, 24 May 2012

Transcription

1 Business opportunities in Turkish Maritime Industry Marco Rensma Director MEYS Emerging Markets Research Istanbul, 24 May 2012

2 Content presentation 1. Introduction MEYS Emerging Markets Research 2. Global trends seaborne trade and shipbuilding 3. Economic developments Turkey 4. Turkish maritime industry: 4.1 Developments seaborn trade Turkey 4.2 Trends in Turkish shipbuilding 4.3 Market of tankers and bulk carriers 4.4 Market of mega yachts 4.5 Market of naval ships 4.6 Market of offshore supply vessels 5. Outlook maritime industry Turkey

3 1. Introduction MEYS Emerging Markets Research

4 What we do International market research and advisory for Dutch companies Focus on the emerging markets of: Romania Turkey Hungary Morocco Czech Republic Vietnam Business clients from industry, construction, trade & logistics, transport Official partner TurkeyDesk - Fenedex Writing articles on emerging markets for: Fenedexpress, monthly magazine Fenedex Romania Magazine, quarterly magazine Dutch Romanian Network Presentations for companies, business associations, and universities on emerging markets and globalisation Parttime lecturer Global Marketing, The Hague University of Applied Sciences

5 2. Global trends seaborne trade and shipbuilding

6 Increased volume world seaborne trade International developments seaborne trade (millions of tons loaded) Source: UNCTAD Note: (*) Iron ore, grain, coal, bauxite/alumnia and phosphate Oil Main bulks* Other dry cargo Container

7 f 2013f 2014f Growth rate (%) USD/barrel Growth rate world seaborne trade could become lower after Source: UNCTAD, IMF, own calculations Seaborne trade Global economy Oil prices (R-axis)

8 Declining world volume new orders and order books World volume (million GT) Source: SAJN New orders Order books

9 Declining demand tankers and bulk carriers; small increase container ships 160 World order book (mill. DWT) World order book container ships (mill. TEU) Source: RS Platou Tanker < DWT Tanker > DWT Capesize

10 2008M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M04 Million USD Falling prices for new tankers, bulk carriers and container vessels Suezmax Capesize TEU Source: RS Platou

11 Numbers Lower demand mega yachts * New orders Note: (*) Jan. - April Source: Camper and Nicholson, Boat International, SuperYacht Times Deliveries

12 2007okt 2008jan 2008apr 2008jul 2008okt 2009jan 2009mei 2009aug 2009nov 2010feb 2010mei 2010aug 2010nov 2011feb 2011mei 2011aug 2011nov 2012feb 900 Increasing demand for offshore supply vessels (excl. tugboats) Volume world order books OSVs (number) Source: Marcon International

13 e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e Million CGT Increasing overcapacity at shipyards worldwide Completions Shipbuilding capacity Overcapacity Source: POSCO Research Institute

14 3. Economic developments Turkey

15 Turkey higher economic growth rate than EU-27 10,0 Economic growth rate (GDP, %) 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0-2,0-4,0-6,0 Source: IMF EU-27 the Netherlands Turkey

16 Strong increase total foreign trade 300,0 Total foreign trade Turkey (billion euro) 250,0 200,0 Economic liberalisation 150,0 100,0 50,0 Source: Turkstat

17 Turkey relatively small export sector Ireland Malta Hungary Estonia Slovakia Netherlands Belgium Czech Republic Lithuania Slovenia Bulgaria Latvia Austria Switzerland Denmark Sweden Germany Poland EU-27 Croatia Norway Finland Romania Portugal United Kingdom Spain Italy France Greece Turkey Source: Eurostat Exports, 2011 (% of GDP) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

18 Turkey large deficit current account Current account balance, 2011 (% GDP) Norway Switzerland Netherlands Sweden Denmark Germany Estonia Korea Japan Austria Slovak Republic Ireland Israel Belgium Finland Slovenia United Kingdom Australia France Canada Czech Republic United States Italy Spain New Zealand Portugal Iceland Greece Turkey Source: IMF

19 2009M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M03 30,0 High inflationary pressure Inflation Turkey (%) 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0-5,0 Source: Eurostat Total Food Energy

20 Weak Turkish Lira 105 Real effective exchange rate TRY (2010 = 100) Source: Bank International Settlements

21 2010M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M04 Turkey Central Bank (still) holds interest rate relatively low 7,50 Policy rate (%) 7,00 6,50 6,00 5,50 5,00 Source: Central Bank Turkey

22 Economic outlook Turkey positive 10,0 Growth rates for Turkey (%) 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 Source: EIU GDP Private consumption Exports Government consumption

23 Turkish current account deficit remains high after ,0 Balance current account Turkey (% GDP) ,0-4,0-6,0-8,0-10,0 Source: IMF

24 4. Turkish Maritime Industry

25 4.1 Developments seaborne trade Turkey

26 Turkey strategically located for international seaborne trade

27 Ports are located all along Turkish coast 175 Ports 90 per cent private operated Source: ISPAT

28 Busy times at Turkish seaports 400 Volume goods handled at Turkish seaports (million tons) Cabotage Source: UMA Total volume Export/import

29 2009M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M03 60% Slowing down growth rate seaborne trade Growth rate seaborne trade Turkey(%) 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% Source: Turkish customs Exports Imports

30 Turkey relatively large merchant fleet Greece Japan Germany China excl. Hong Kong Republic of Korea US Norway China, Hong Kong SAR Denmark Taiwan Singapore Bermuda Italy UK Turkey Russia Canada India Malaysia Belgium Iran Saudi Arabia Brazil Indonesia Cyprus UAE Netherlands France Viet Nam Sweden Total DWT merchant fleet as a percentage in world total, (%) (a) Source: UNCTAD Note: (a) Vessels of 1,000 GT and above operating under national and foreign flag

31 Relatively young merchant fleet Age merchant fleet Turkey, % in total DWT (December 2011) 30+ years Mainly smaller vessels < DWT years years 0-9 years Source: Turkey Chamber of Shipping

32 Strong increase container handling Volume container handling Turkish ports (x TEU) Source: UMA, TURKLIM

33 Turkish ports relatively small globally China United States Singapore Hong Kong Japan Korea, Republic of Malaysia UAE Germany Spain Taiwan Netherlands Belgium Italy India Indonesia United Kingdom Brazil Egypt Australia Thailand Viet Nam France Panama Turkey in container handling Container throughput, 2009 (x TEU) Source: UNCTAD

34 4.2 Trends in Turkish shipbuilding

35 Concentration of shipyards in Istanbul (Tuzla Bay) and Yalova (27) (8) (1) (1) (1) (1) Yalova (21) Canakkale (2) Izmit (6) Sakarva (1) 71 shipyards as of (1) Hatay (1) Source: UMA

36 Turkey among the best of the rest Top 20 economies for shipbuilding, 2010 deliveries (% in world total DWT) China Republic of Korea Japan Philippines Romania Viet Nam Denmark Taiwan Croatia Germany Turkey US Russia Spain Indonesia Netherlands India Italy Poland Bulgaria 1,24% 0,60% 0,56% 0,50% 0,44% 0,35% 0,35% 0,33% 0,22% 0,17% 0,15% 0,12% 0,12% 0,09% 0,08% 0,08% 0,07% 21,77% 31,34% 41,07% Source: UNCTAD 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

37 Large overcapacity at Turkish shipyards Number of ships built at Turkish shipyards Ship deliveries and max. production capacity (x DWT) Ship deliveries Production capacity Source: Turkey Chamber of Shipping, UMA

38 Order books Turkish shipyards are under pressure. Focus primarily on tanker building Total order books Turkish shipyards (x GT) Order books by type of ship 2010 (%) 71% 9% 17% 1% 2% - Container General cargo RO-RO Bulk Carrier Tanker Source: Turkey Chamber of Shipping, SAJN

39 4.3 Market of tankers and bulk carriers

40 Tankers and bulk carriers most used vessels in Turkish merchant fleet Note: (*) ships over 150 GT Source: UMA Merchant fleet Turkey (DWT)* Tankers Bulk carriers Total

41 Tankers and bulk carriers main shipbuilding marketsegments Ship deliveries Turkey 2010 (percentage of built tonnage) 4,6 1,2 16,8 18,7 58,6 Source: OECD Tankers Other dry cargo/passenger Others Bulk carriers Offshore

42 Since 2007 domestic demand for tankers higher than foreign demand Tanker deliveries Turkish shipyards (number) Source: OECD, Turkey Chamber of Shipping Export Domestic

43 Decreasing volume order books, particular for tankers Order books Turkey (number) jan 2009feb 2009dec 2010dec 2011mei 2011okt Source: OECD, Turkey Chamber of Shipping, Clarkson tanker bulk dry cargo container

44 4.4 Market of mega yachts

45 Strong increase international tourism Foreigners arriving (persons) Source: Turkstat

46 Others China UAE Taiwan New Zealand UK US Germany Turkey Netherlands Italy Turkey third largest builder of mega yachts Source: Camper and Nicholson Mega yachts builders 2010 (% in total boat length)

47 * Lower demand mega yachts from Turkish shipyards Market of mega yachts Turkey (number) Completed New orders Note: (*) Jan. April Source: SuperYacht Times, Camper and Nicholson

48 Euro Lower prices 2012Q1 after records in and * Note: (*) Jan. - April Source: Boat International, Super Yacht Times, The Yacht Market Average asking prices mega yachts Turkey (Loa per metre)

49 Examples of mega yachts built in Turkey Boat: Peri 37M Builder: Peri Yachts Boat length (Loa): metres Asking price: euro Boat: Aegean Yacht Ketch Builder: Aegean Yacht Boat length (Loa): metres Asking price: euro

50 4.5 Market of naval ships

51 Strong increase turnover Turkish defense industry Defense industry Turkey (x USD) Source: SaSad Turnover Exports

52 Million USD Strong increase in expenditures on military equipment Development Defense Industry Support Fund Income Expenditures Source: Undersecretary Defense Industry (SSM)

53 Large investment programs Turkish navy MILGEM Investment program of 2 billion dollars over a period of 15 years Building of twelve (four optional) Patrol and Anti-Submarine Warfare Ships GENESIS Upgrading weapons systems on board 8 frigates Submarines Building of 6 submarines Value of the contract 2 billion dollars Cooperation between HDW from Germany and several Turkish companies, among others Aselan and Havelsan TF-2000 Building of 6 anti-air frigates Value of the contract 3 billion dollars First delivery 2018

54 4.6 Market of Offshore Supply Vessels

55 2007okt 2008jan 2008apr 2008jul 2008okt 2009jan 2009mei 2009aug 2009nov 2010feb 2010mei 2010aug 2010nov 2011feb 2011mei 2011aug 2011nov 2012feb Turkey small builder in global market of OSVs Volume order books OSVs Turkish shipyards (number) Turkey 1% of global market Source: Marcon International

56 Examples Turkish built OSVs RMK Shipyard Offshore multi-purpose ship DWT Delivery 2009 North Sea Shipping (Norway) CEMRE Shipyard Offshore support vessel LOA 86 metres Delivery September 2011 Havyard (Norway)

57 5. Outlook maritime industry Turkey

58 Market segment Outlook Market opportunities Market threats Tankers ++ Increasing demand oil and gas transport Strong domestic base Partly replacement merchant fleet Regional energy hub Relatively low labour costs Bulk carriers + Growing economy Turkey Partly replacement merchant fleet Relatively low labour costs Container ships + Growing economy Turkey Regional trading hub Relative low labour costs Mega yachts ++ Strong increase international tourism Higher incomes in Turkey Naval ships +++ High government expenditures Increase foreign demand OSVs ++ Investments by oil and gas industry Increasing energy demand Turkey Falling newbuilding prices -> excess capacity Strong competition Asia High investments costs Falling newbuilding prices -> excess capacity Strong competition Asia Lower growth rate global economy Falling newbuilding prices -> excess capacity Strong competition Asia Lower growth rate global economy Strong competition from Europe Volatile and small global market Political developments Difficult market to enter for new foreign companies Strong global competition High investments in R&D Strong dependence on foreign imports

59 Thank you for your attention! Marco Rensma Mobile: +31(0)