Economic Update Edward Seiler NH&RA
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1
2 Economic Update Edward Seiler NH&RA 2
3 Annual Real GDP Growth (%) Actual (BEA) Forecast (CBO in red, OMB red + orange)
4 Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate (%) Unemployment Rate Bachelor's degree and higher, 25 yrs. & over Some College or Associate Degree, 25 yrs. & over High School Grads, No College, 25 yrs. & over Less than a High School Diploma, 25 yrs. & over Source: Bureau Labor Statistics 4
5 Cumulative wage growth from 1979: Low-wage and middle-wage workers wages have been stagnant, while those with very high wages saw a 52% increase 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% 10th percentile 30th percentile 50th percentile 70th percentile 95th percentile 52% 14% 10% 7% 5% Notes: The 50 th percentile is the wage at which 50% of wage earners earn less Source: Economic Policy Institute 5
6 Interest rates remain (historically) low, but are expected to rise Year Mortgage Yr Treasury 3-Month Treasury 7.0 Fed Funds Rate Forecast (Source: CBO) Actual (Source: FRED)
7 House Prices are expected to continue to rise 7
8 Why? Average months of supply is low National Seattle LA Boston DC Philadelphia Chicago Six months supply is often considered a normal market Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Source: REDFIN 8
9 Drilling down by price tier further highlights the issues The affordable tier s (highlighted) inventory is shrinking and now represents less than 3-months supply of homes for sale. Note: Price tiers defined relative to median price home in that market (100 = median) 9
10 Drilling down by MSA further highlights the issues 10
11 How does this translate into homeownership rates by income, age and race? Household income Median U.S. Household income < Median U.S < White 60 U.S. 50 Hispanic 40 Black 30 Source: US Census
12 As homeownership declined, rental shares increased 12
13 Renters are more likely than owners to be young, low income and single 13
14 However, in the last decade the share of higher income households has increased 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Share of Rental Households 2006 Share of Rental Households 2016 Share of Growth Metropolitan Statistical Area Share of Growth Under $25,000 $25,000- $49,999 $50,000- $74,999 $75,000- $99,999 United States 22% 19% 18% 13% 29% Atlanta 23% 19% 22% 15% 21% Baltimore 22% -5% 19% 10% 54% Boston 13% 2% 7% 16% 61% Chicago 21% 15% 15% 14% 35% Las Vegas 41% 28% 11% 7% 13% Los Angeles 27% 7% 15% 9% 42% New York 9% 15% 1% 11% 65% Philadelphia 22% 21% 11% 15% 30% Pittsburgh -60% 42% 42% 36% 40% San Francisco 1% -4% 0% 11% 93% Seattle 2% 3% 18% 25% 51% Washington, DC 22% 6% 10% 14% 48% $100,000 or More Source: JCHS 14
15 Additional units being built at high-end is in part due to increasingly expensive development costs with land and construction costs increasing faster than CPI U.S. Land (Normalized to 1998 = 100) CPI-U Turner Non-Residential Construction Cost Index RSMeans Construction Cost Index Sources: Land values from Costar CCRSI, CPI from BLS 15
16 Vacancy rates are rising and rents are increasing more slowly 16
17 And there appears to be slight easing of affordability pressures although the situation remains worse than it was a decade ago 17
18 Which populations are cost burdened? Income Metropolitan Statistical Area Under $15,000 Moderately Burdened $15,000 29,999 $30,000 44,999 $45,000 74,999 $75,000 and Over All Incomes Severely Burdened Mod Sev Mod Sev Mod Sev Mod Sev Mod Sev United States Philadelphia Pittsburgh Moderately (severely) cost-burdened households pay 30% - 50% (> 50%) of household income for housing Note that AMI for Philadelphia and Pittsburgh were $65,996 and $56,063 in 2016 Source: US Census, 2016 American Community Survey Age Race/ Ethnicity Metropolitan Under or Over Statistical Area Mod Sev Mod Sev Mod Sev Mod Sev United States Philadelphia Pittsburgh Metropolitan White Black Hispanic Asian/Other Statistical Area Mod Sev Mod Sev Mod Sev Mod Sev United States Philadelphia Pittsburgh
19 The availability of housing assistance continues to lag the growth of very low-income renters Renters with worst case needs (millions) Source: HUD Worst Case Needs 2017 Report to Congress. 19
20 Special Topic: The administration s proposed 25% steel and 10% aluminum tariffs Many areas we could talk about: Final versus intermediary goods Who uses these inputs? How it will affect jobs Infrastructure program Multi-stage retaliatory game and broader global repercussions Technology taking jobs Geography Is NAFTA excluded? But, Illinois relies on Brazil for 41% of its steel and China for 29 % of its AL 20
21 In closing Comments and questions welcome This is the first time I have given this economic update presentation How should I structure this in the future? What particular topics should I start showing, stop showing, continue (expand or contract)? Contact information: eseiler@dworbell.com
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