Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy: Situation and Outlook
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1 Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy: Situation and Outlook AAEA Annual Meeting Extension Track August 14, 2012 James G. Robb Director
2 29 land Grant Universities: USDA Members: ERS APHIS GIPSA NASS WAOB AMS Associate Members: AFBF ASI NCBA NPB CME-Group Canadian Consortium Noble Foundation CoBank TCFA CWB TCU
3 Topics: Markets, Numbers and U.S. Consumer and Per Capita Disappearance Feedstuffs are the Key Some International Trade Comments Sector Highlights Chicken Hogs/Pork Dairy Cattle/Beef USDA Data Sources NASS, AMS, FAS, and ERS All Forecasts LMIC
4 US Consumer and Consumption (Disappearance)
5 Dollars PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME Quarterly Current Dollar Dollar Data Source: Dept Commerce-BEA
6 Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX First Quarter, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: LMIC
7 U S BEEF CONSUMPTION Per Capita, Retail Weight, Annual Pounds Data Source: USDA-NASS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
8 U S RED MEAT & POULTRY CONSUMPTION Per Capita, Retail Weight, Annual Pounds Turkey Total Chicken Pork 50 Beef Data Source: USDA-NASS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
9 Drought A Game Changer
10 Feedstuffs are Key
11 U S TOTAL CORN SUPPLY AND PRICE Crop Year Bil. Bushels $ Per Bushel Supply Price Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
12 U.S. CORN DISAPPEARANCE AND STOCKS Crop Year Bil. Bushels Stocks Exports Food, Seed & Industrial Feed & Residual Data Source: USDA-NASS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
13 Trade Comments
14 U S BROILER EXPORTS As a Percentage of Broiler Production, RTC, Annual Percent Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
15 Percent 22 U S NET PORK EXPORTS As a Percentage of Production, Carcass Weight, Annual Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
16 1000 MT 30 CHEESE AND CURD EXPORTS Monthly 25 Avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Data Source: USDA-FAS
17 Percent U S BEEF AND VEAL NET IMPORTS As a Percentage of Production, Carcass Weight, Annual Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
18 FEEDER CATTLE IMPORTS FROM MEXICO Weekly Thou. Head Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS & APHIS
19 Mil. Head (Cow s & Heifers) 6 CANADA CATTLE INVENTORY January 1, Annual Mil. Head (Total) Beef Cows Beef Heifer Replacements Total Cattle Inventory Data Source: Statistics Canada
20 Chicken & Pork
21 BROILER EGGS SET Weekly Mil. Eggs Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-NASS
22
23 RTC BROILER PRODUCTION Quarterly Bil. Pounds Avg. 2007/ JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
24 RTC TURKEY PRODUCTION Quarterly Bil. Pounds Avg. 2007/ JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC 2014 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
25 Thou. Head 70 SOW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-NASS
26 PIGS PER LITTER Quarterly Head Data Source: USDA-NASS
27 COMMERCIAL PORK PRODUCTION Quarterly Bil. Pounds Avg. 2007/ JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC 2014 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
28 Dairy
29 CLASS III MILK PRICES FMMO, Monthly $ Per Cwt Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS
30 Thou Head DAIRY COW INVENTORY US Total, Monthly Avg JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data Source: USDA-NASS
31 Thou. Head DAIRY COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-NASS
32 Cattle/Beef
33 Mil. Head 52 JANUARY 1 TOTAL COW INVENTORY U.S., Annual Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
34 $ Per Cwt MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS
35 Bil. Pounds 7.0 COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTION Quarterly JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC Avg. 2007/ Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
36 $ Per Cwt ANNUAL AVERAGE CATTLE PRICES Southern Plains lb Steer Calves lb Feeder Steers Fed Steers Data Source: USDA-AMS, Forecasts by LMIC
37 $ Per Cow 200 ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual Data Source: USDA-AMS, NASS, Analysis and Forecasts by LMIC
38 $ Per Cwt CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVEN Cattle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly Latest Data: July 2012 Steer Price Breakeven Projected Breakeven Data Source: USDA-AMS, NASS, Analysis and Forecasts by LMIC
39 Thank You!
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