Kantar Public Election Talk: German Election. Is Merkel s reelection a forgone conclusion?
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1 Kantar Public Election Talk: German Election Is Merkel s reelection a forgone conclusion?
2 Dr. Nico A. Siegel CEO Kantar Public Germany Managing Director Infratest dimap Jürgen Hofrichter Senior Director Infratest dimap Christoph Döbele Consultant Kantar Public 2
3 1 Basic facts on electoral system and history
4 German Electoral System Christinan Union Social Democrats Liberals/FDP Greens Left AfD Election system: Personalized proportional representation Two votes: one for candidate in constituency, one for party list (at state level) 299 seats for directly elected candidates (majority vote) Remaining seats: 299+ distributed among party lists (strict proportional representation) 5% threshold or 3 direct seats Total seat distribution according strict proportional representation 299 constituencies 4
5 German Electoral History Christinan Union Social Democrats Liberals/FDP Greens Left AfD Germany: country of coalitions (grand coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD built two out of the three last governments) no single party governments at Federal level 16 states, strong federalism 13 different government coalitions in 16 states 5
6 German Electoral History turnout ,5 60 turnout ,5 86,0 87,8 87,7 86,8 86,7 91,1 90,7 88,6 89,1 84,3 77,8 79,0 82,2 79,1 77,7 70,8 71,5 6
7 German Electoral History: party vote shares of CDU/CSU and SPD , Christian Union Social Democrats ,0 45,2 50,2 45,3 47,6 46,1 44,9 48,6 44,5 48,8 44,3 43,8 41,4 35,1 38,5 35,2 33,8 41,5 25,7 29,2 28,8 31,8 36,2 39,3 42,7 45,8 42,6 42,9 38,2 37,0 33,5 36,4 40,9 38,5 34,2 23,0 25,7 7
8 German Electoral History In 18 Federal Elections (FE), Social Democrats became strongest party only three times: 1972, 1998 and 2002 Long-term party identification of electorate: larger share for Christian Union, particularly among elderly voters Social Democrat only have the chance to become strongest party if candidate, party competence profile is strong and CDU/CSU top candidate for chancellor office is weak! 8
9 2 Ahead of the German elections
10 Unemployment rate Economic growth 14 10,0 12 Eurozone 8,0 6,0 10 4,0 Germany 8 2,0 6 0,0-2,0 Eurozone 4 2 Germany -4,0-6,0-8, , Unemployment rate (according to labour force survey) Source: Eurostat Real GDP growth Source: OECD / federal statistical office Germany 10
11 Perception of general economic situation 11
12 Satisfaction with the Federal Government 12
13 Generalised perception of fairness 13
14 Which party should lead the next government? 14
15 Which party should lead the next government? 15
16 Vote intention 16
17 Vote intention over time Christian Union Social Democrats Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 If there were a federal election next Sunday, which party would you vote for? Universe: Persons entitled to vote in Germany / Order of the parties represents the results of the last Federal Election In percent 17
18 Vote intention over time ,5 9 7,5 AfD Liberals Left Greens Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 If there were a federal election next Sunday, which party would you vote for? Universe: Persons entitled to vote in Germany In percent 18
19 Candidate preference: Merkel vs. Schulz 19
20 3 and what about populist attitudes?
21 Europeans and populism All in all, are you very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not very satisfied or not at all satisfied with the way democracy works in (COUNTRY)? UK NL satisfied 0 not satisfied don t know GERMANY FRANCE 21 21
22 Europeans and populism UK NL 65 For more than 20 years, the elites in (COUNTRY) have completely failed totally agree / tend to agree tend to disagree / totally disagree don t know 12 7 FRANCE GERMANY 22
23 Europeans and populism UK 23 NL 9 74 What we need in our country is a strong leader who restores order GERMANY totally agree / tend to agree tend to disagree / totally disagree 17 6 don t know FRANCE 23
24 Satisfaction with the way democracy works 24
25 Everything will be all right! Everyone will be raging! 25
26 4 What else we do around the elections
27 Social Media Monitoring #btwgezwitscher monitors tweets about party candidates Identifies current topics and discussions Activities on twitter largely mirror mass media coverage fqefeqff CDU SPD FDP AfD CDU Night of TV Debate - 03 September
28 Exit Poll on election day 28
29 Exit Poll on election day correspondentes in 624 polling stations (+152 postal vote districts) Exit-Poll pm forecast: 250 CATI interviewers in 5 studios Ca interviews, Thereof with a longer questionnare official result: 29
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