Blue Diamond Growers Quality Management ASFMRA in California Almonds Outlook 2018 Conference
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1 Blue Diamond Growers Quality Management ASFMRA in California Almonds Outlook 2018 Conference
2 California Walnut Acreage Thousand Acres Non-Bearing Source : USDA FAS Bearing
3 California Walnut Production Short Tins (Thousands) Crop Year Source : USDA FAS
4 California Walnut Price and Value $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 Walnut Price and Value $ $/Ton Billion $
5 World Walnut Production Metric Tons Source : USDA FAS
6 World Walnut Production 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , / / / / / /18 China United States Chile European Union Ukraine Turkey India Other Source : USDA FAS
7 California Pistachio Acreage 350, , , , , ,000 50, Bearing Non-Bearing Source : USDA FAS
8 California Pistachio Production (Million Pounds) 1, Source : USDA FAS
9 California Pistachio Price and Value $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $ Retiurn/Pound Billion $
10 World Pistachio Production (Metric Tons) 900, , , , , , , , , / / / / / /18 United States Turkey Iran Syria European Union Source : USDA FAS
11 World Almond Production (Metric Tons) 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , / / / / / /18 United States European Union Australia China Turkey Other Source : USDA FAS
12 California Almond Regions
13
14 2016 Crop Production in MM Lbs Tehama 17,435,407 Butte 54,268,739 Glenn 68,894,554 Sutter 8,276,874 Colusa 104,030,205 Yolo 27,994,264 Yuba 1,088,418 Solano 6,230,008 Others 292,219 Total North 288,510,688 Sacramento Valley
15 San Joaquin Valley 2016 Crop Production in MM Lbs San Joaquin 104,983,283 Stanislaus 290,994,947 Merced 222,318,431 Others 490,636 Total Central 618,787,297 Madera 242,618,187 Fresno 433,216,138 Kings 40,206,390 Tulare 73,857,751 Kern 433,172,990 Others 226,769 Total South 1,223,298, Total Crop = 2,130,596,210
16 California Almond Bearing Acreage 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , *
17 California Almond Yields and Total Receipts 2,500,000,000 3,000 2,000,000,000 2,500 1,500,000,000 2,000 1,000,000,000 1,500 1,000 Receipts Yield 500,000, * -
18 ABC 25 Year Average Almond Prices $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $
19 $- $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $ ,000 1,500 2,000 2, * Receipts Shipments Carry-Over Price California Almond Production & Shipments
20 California Almond Production & Shipments , , , , , , , ,600.0 Production and Shipments 1, * Receipts Shipments
21 USDA-NASS Acreage by Planting Year 100, , , , , , , , , , & Earlier
22 USDA-NASS Acreage by Planting Year 100, , , , , , , , , , & Earlier
23 California Crop Potential Crop Year New Bearing (000's) Total Pullouts (000's) Bearing Acres (000's) 1,000 1,046 1,102 1,145 1,181 1,216 Yield per Acre 2,250 2,295 2,341 2,388 2,435 2,484 Pounds Increase Crop MM
24 California Crop Potential Crop Year New Bearing (000's) Total Pullouts (000's) Bearing Acres (000's) 1,000 1,046 1,102 1,145 1,181 1,216 Yield per Acre 2,250 2,295 2,341 2,388 2,435 2,484 Pounds Increase Crop MM
25 California Crop Potential Crop Year New Bearing (000's) Total Pullouts (000's) Bearing Acres (000's) 1,000 1,046 1,102 1,145 1,181 1,216 Yield per Acre 2,250 2,295 2,341 2,388 2,435 2,484 Pounds Increase Crop MM
26 California Crop Potential Crop Year New Bearing (000's) Total Pullouts (000's) Bearing Acres (000's) 1,000 1,046 1,102 1,145 1,181 1,216 Yield per Acre 2,250 2,295 2,341 2,388 2,435 2,484 Pounds Increase Crop MM
27 Total Almond Market Demand Growing By 12%
28 Ending Inventory Carry-Out Very Manageable
29 Establishing the Orchard Approximately $6,000 per acre Add $1,000 if Removing Previous Planting Annual Variable Production Costs $2,800 to $3,200 per acre Three Years to First Crop 8 to 11 Years to Recover Initial Investment 20 to 25 Year Life Economics
30 Crop Farm Variation From Year Year Price $ Average $ 1.30 ($0.64) $ 1.94 ($0.00) $ 1.34 ($0.60) $ 2.48 $ $ 2.08 $ $ 1.56 ($0.38) $ 1.41 ($0.53) $ 0.86 ($1.08) $ 0.97 ($0.97) $ 0.91 ($1.03) $ 1.11 ($0.83) $ 1.57 ($0.37) $ 2.21 $ $ 2.81 $ $ 2.06 $ $ 1.75 ($0.19) $ 1.45 ($0.49) $ 1.65 ($0.29) $ 1.79 ($0.15) $ 1.99 $ $ 2.58 $ $ 3.21 $ $ 4.00 $ $ 3.13 $ $ 2.44 $0.50 $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $ ABC 25 Year Average Almond Prices Average Prices CAGR 25 Year $ % 10 Year $ % 5 Year $ %
31 Nonpareil Price Year Variable Cost $2.00 $2.20 $2.40 $2.60 $2.80 $2.90 $ $ 7, ($7,000.00) ($7,000.00) ($7,000.00) ($7,000.00) ($7,000.00) ($7,000.00) ($7,000.00) 2 $ 1, ($8,200.00) ($8,200.00) ($8,200.00) ($8,200.00) ($8,200.00) ($8,200.00) ($8,200.00) 3 $ 2, ($10,264.00) ($10,182.00) ($10,100.00) ($10,018.00) ($9,936.00) ($9,895.00) ($9,854.00) 4 $ 3, ($11,424.00) ($11,137.00) ($10,850.00) ($10,563.00) ($10,276.00) ($10,132.50) ($9,989.00) 5 $ 3, ($11,326.00) ($10,690.50) ($10,055.00) ($9,419.50) ($8,784.00) ($8,466.25) ($8,148.50) 6 $ 3, ($9,970.30) ($8,842.80) ($7,715.30) ($6,587.80) ($5,460.30) ($4,896.55) ($4,332.80) 7 $ 3, ($8,645.20) ($7,025.70) ($5,406.20) ($3,786.70) ($2,167.20) ($1,357.45) ($547.70) 8 $ 3, ($7,351.02) ($5,239.52) ($3,128.02) ($1,016.52) $1, $2, $3, $ 3, ($6,088.05) ($3,484.55) ($881.05) $1, $4, $5, $6, $ 3, ($4,856.61) ($1,761.11) $1, $4, $7, $9, $10, $ 3, ($3,657.01) ($69.51) $3, $7, $10, $12, $14, $ 3, ($2,489.58) $1, $5, $9, $13, $15, $17, $ 3, ($1,354.64) $3, $7, $12, $16, $19, $21, $ 3, ($252.50) $4, $9, $14, $20, $22, $25, $ 3, $ $6, $11, $17, $23, $25, $28, $ 3, $1, $7, $13, $19, $26, $29, $32, $ 3, $2, $9, $15, $22, $29, $32, $35, $ 3, $3, $10, $17, $24, $31, $35, $38, $ 3, $4, $12, $19, $27, $34, $38, $42, $ 3, $5, $13, $21, $29, $37, $41, $45, $ 3, $6, $15, $23, $32, $40, $44, $49, $ 3, $6, $15, $24, $33, $42, $47, $51, $ 3, $7, $16, $25, $35, $44, $49, $53, $ 3, $6, $16, $26, $35, $45, $50, $55, $ 3, $5, $15, $26, $36, $46, $51, $56, Annual Net Revenue $ $ $1, $1, $1, $2, $2, Return/Lb $1.80 $2.00 $2.20 $2.40 $2.60 $2.70 $2.80
32 Variety Groups as Percentage of Crop 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Nonpareil Industry Linear (Industry)
33 Variety Groups as Percentage of Crop 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Carmel Industry Linear (Industry)
34 Variety Groups as Percentage of Crop 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Butte/Padre Industry Linear (Industry)
35 Variety Groups as Percentage of Crop 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Monterey Industry Linear (Industry)
36 Variety Groups as Percentage of Crop 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% California Industry Linear (Industry)
37 Variety Groups as Percentage of Crop 3.0% Independence 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Industry
38 California Almond Production Issues Variety Options Self-Fertiles
39 California Almond Production Issues Variety Options Self-Fertiles Bees
40 California Almond Production Issues Variety Options Self-Fertiles Bees Water SGMA Peak Flows
41 California Almond Production Issues Variety Options Self-Fertiles Bees Water SGMA Peak Flows Labor
42
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