The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference
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1 The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya
2 The Big Issues The broken crystal ball A crisis that happens once in 100 years From a country oriented economy to a world global economy A need for a new architectural structure of the financial markets and Institutions
3 Identifying Business Cycles Turning Points in the Israeli Economy The Present Cyclical Position
4 The Melnick State of the Economy Index Main Indicators Industrial Production Revenue in Commerce and Services Import Index Employee Posts in the Business Sector
5 Industrial Production (2004 = 100) Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
6 Revenue in Commerce and Services (2004 = 100) Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
7 Import Index (1994 = 100) Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
8 2, Employee Posts in the Business Sector , , , , , , , , Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
9 The Melnick Index (2004 = 100) The Present Cycle May The big crisis October The contraction recession March The high-tech bubble May Growth and Recovery August Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
10 Long Term Fundamentals
11 GDP per Capita in Israel (Rates of Growth, Percent)
12 Recent Economic Policy
13 General Government Expenditure (Percent of GDP) *
14 General Government Deficit (Percent of GDP) *
15 Public Debt (Percent of GDP, Gross Debt) *
16 Bank of Israel Interest Rate (Nominal and Real - Percent) Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Nominal Real
17 International Reserves 2008 (In US dollars, millions end of the period) 40,000 38,000 36,000 34,000 32,000 30,000 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08
18 The Dollar and Basket Exchange Rate Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Lower limit Upper Limit Basket Dollar
19 Latest Economic Developments
20 GDP and Business GDP (Rates of Growth, Percent) GDP GDP Business
21 Rate of Inflation (CPI, Percent) *
22 Unemployment (Percent) *
23 Labor Force Participation (Percent) *
24 Current Account (Percent of GDP) * -2
25 Foreign Investment (Billion U.S. dollars) * Inflow Outflow Direct Inflow Direct Outflow
26 Consumer Price Index (Percent change in previous 12 months) Jan-00 Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct
27 The World Economy Basic Assumptions
28 Source: IMF WEO Update November 2008
29 תחזיות ה- IMF לפעילות עולמית ב סחר עולמי תוצר עולמי ארה"ב גוש האירו שווקים מתעוררים ומתפתחים נוב- 08 אוק- 08 יול- 08 אפר- 08 מקור: World Economic Outlook
30 World Trade Volume (Annual Percent Change, IMF WEO October 2008) * 2009* *Forecast
31 Real GDP Growth (Annual Percent Change, IMF WEO October 2008) * 2009* USA Japan Euro Area *Forecast
32 Real GDP Growth (Annual Percent Change, IMF WEO October 2008) * 2008* 2009* China India *Forecast
33 Inflation (CPI, Annual Percent Change, IMF WEO October 2008) * 2009* USA Japan Euro Area *Forecast
34 Inflation (CPI, Annual Percent Change, IMF WEO October 2008) * 2009* China India *Forecast
35 Economic Policy Fiscal The 2009 Budget Monetary
36 Budget 2009 The budget will not be approved on time during the first quarter of 2009 expenditure will be 1/12 of 2008s budget The next government change the budget an I assume that government consumption and investment will increase by 2 percent in real terms Expected deficit 3.0 percent of GDP due to drop in tax collection Continuation of tax reduction al planned
37 Monetary Policy Monetary Policy will continue to be expansionary The Bank of Israel will set the lowest possible interest rate The Bank of Israel will support the financial system and the banking system acting on time as Lender of Last Resort The Bank of Israel will continue to support the Shekel
38 Consumer Price Index and Dollar Exchange Rate (Percent change in previous 12 months) Jan-00 Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct CPI Lower limit Upper limit Dollar
39 The Dollar and Euro Exchange Rate Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Lower limit Upper Limit Euro Dollar
40 Macroeconomic Forecast 2008
41 GDP and GDPB Forecast 2009 (Rates of Growth, Percent) * 2009* -4 GDP GDP Business
42 Rate of Inflation Forecast 2009 (CPI, Percent) * 2009* 1.7
43 Unemployment Forecast 2009 (Percent) * 2009*
44 Labor Force Participation Forecast 2009 (Percent) * 2009*
45 Current Account Forecast 2009 (Percent of GDP) * 2009* 1.0-2
46 Uses and Resources Forecast 2009 (Rates of Growth, Percent) Resources GDP Business GDP Imports Uses of Resources Private Consumption Government Consumption Gross Capital Formation o.w.: Fixed Capital Formation Exports C.B.S B.o.I Melnick
47 Bank of Israel Interest Rate Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09
48 Consumer Price Index and Dollar Exchange Rate 2009 Forecast (Percent change in previous 12 months) CPI inflation in percent Dollar exchange rate 3.92 at December Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan CPI CPI forecast Lower limit Upper limit Dollar Dollar forecast
49 BoI Interest Rate and Yields to Makam and Shahar 2009 Forecast Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 BoI Rate BoI Rate forecast Makam 12 months Makam forecast Shahr 10 Years Shahar forecast
50 Real Yield on Indexed Government Bonds 2009 Forecast (5 and 10 years maturity, percent) Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 5 year 5 year forecast 10 year 10 year forecast
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