Liberal Budget Gains Disappear

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1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Liberal Budget Gains Disappear Majority, Liberals lose party status if an election held today Toronto, April 19 th - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll among 1126 voters, the gap between the s and their provincial challengers has widened once again, with almost half (46%) saying they would vote PC if an election were held today. One-quarter (27%) say they would support the NDP, while one-fifth (21%) say they would support the Liberals. Few (4%) would support the Green Party or another party (2%). Respondents most likely to say they are supporting the PCs include those aged (52%) or (50%), male (59%), and anyone earning more than $40,000 including: $40,000-$60,000 (47%), $60,000-$80,000 (47%), $80,000-$100,000 (49%), and the most wealthy (50%), parents (51%), the least educated (56%), living in Eastern (50%) or Southwestern (48%), or the 905 (49%). Respondents most likely to say they are supporting the NDP include those aged 34 and younger (33%), females (33%), earning $20,000-$40,000 (29%) or $40,000- $60,000 (32%), with a college/university degree (30%) or post-graduate degree (29%), and living in Toronto (30%), Southwestern (28%), or Northern (29%). Respondents most likely to say they are supporting the Liberals include those aged (24%) or 65+ (27%), female (26%), the least wealthy (29%), with a post-graduate degree (30%), and living in Toronto (28%). The bump in support following the Liberal budget is gone, said Dr. of Forum Research. "The s are back where we ve seen them for the past year, and Doug Ford looks on track to be Premier in a few months. While campaigns matter, and it s hard to count out an effective campaigner like Kathleen Wynne, the fact that the shine from the Liberals billions of dollars of promises has already diminished, must be a blow to their chances. PC Super-majority on the Horizon If an election were held today, we project a PC majority government with 94 seats. The NDP would serve as official opposition with 23 seats, while the Liberals would secure only 7 seats, one too few for party status in s legislature. 1

2 More than half of Ontarians think the PCs will win More than half (54%) say that the PCs will win the provincial election. One-fifth (19%), about the same as current Liberal support, say it will be the Liberals. 1 in 10 (10%) say it will be the NDP. A hopeful few (1%) say it will be the Green Party, while one-sixth (16%) don t who will win. Almost 9 in 10 (87%) of PC supporters think the PCs will win. Contrast that support with (54%) of Liberal supporters who think the Liberals will win, and the quarter (27%) of NDP supporters who say they NDP will win. Ford approval and disapproval even, Wynne still low Kathleen Wynne see s approval from one-fifth (18%), and disapproval from three-quarters (73%). Only 1 in 10 (9%) say they do not. Her net favourable score (Approve-Disapprove) is -54. Doug Ford s approval and disapproval are even, with (37%) saying they approve and (40%) saying they disapprove. One-quarter (23%) say they do not. Doug Ford s net favourable score is -3. Andrea Horwath sees the best net favourable score, with approval of (37%) and disapproval of (32%). A third (31%) say they do not about Andrea Horwath. Her net favourable score is +5 2

3 The bump in support following the Liberal budget is gone, said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. "The s are back where we ve seen them for the past year, and Doug Ford looks on track to be Premier in a few months. While campaigns matter, and it s hard to count out an effective campaigner like Kathleen Wynne, the fact that the shine from the Liberals billions of dollars of promises has already diminished, must be a blow to their chances. Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416)

4 Methodology The Forum Poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1126 randomly selected Voters. The poll was conducted April 18, Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample (such as age, gender) results are available at Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted by age, region, and other variables to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data. This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather, captures opinion at one point in time. Forum Research conducted this poll as a public service and to demonstrate our survey research capabilities. Actual results depend on the parties ability to get their voters out. Forum houses its poll results in the Data Library of the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian-owned Forum Research is one of the country s leading survey research firms. This Forum Poll and other polls may be found at Forum's poll archive at 4

5 Provincial Election Voting Preference Trending [Decided / Leaning] % Sample Con Lib NDP Green Other April 18, March 28-29, March 11, Feb 17, Jan 25, Jan 11-13, Nov 29-30, Oct 24-25, Sept 26-27, Aug 23-24, June 12-14, May 9-10, March 28-30, February 15-16, November 21 st, October th, September th, August 15 th, July 12 th, June 21 st, May 31 st, April 28 th, March 23rd, February 26 th -29 th, December 20 th, November 2 nd -4 th, August 11 th -12 th, July 8 th, May 11 th, May 1 st, March 26 th, February 28 th, January 30 th, December 20 th, November 29 th, November 1 st, October 1 st, August st, Popular Vote June7 th, Provincial Election Results June 11 th, June 5 th, May 27 th,

6 Overall Seat Distribution 6 % Con Lib NDP April 18, March 29, March 11, Feb 17, Jan 11-13, 2018 (124) November 29-30, October 24-25, September 26-27, August 22-23, June 12-14, May 9-10, March 28-30, February 15-16, November 21 st, October th, September th, August 15th, July 12 th, June 21 st, May 31 st, April 28 th, March 23rd, February 26 th -29 th, December 20 th, November 2 nd -4 th, August 11 th -12 th, July 8 th, May 11 th, May 1 st, March 26 th, February 28 th, January 30 th, December 20 th, November 29 th, November 1 st October 1 st, August st, Election June 12 th, June 5 th, May 27 th, May 20 th, May 12 th, May 2-3 rd,

7 Voter intent If a provincial election were held today in, which party are you most likely to vote for? + Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party are you leaning towards at this time? [Base=decided and leaning] Age/Gender Male Female Sample Liberal New Democratic Green Another Party Income <$20K $20- $40- $60- $80- $100- $40K $60K $80K $100K $250K Sample Liberal New Democratic Green Another Party Parents Yes No Moms Sample Liberal New Democratic Green Another Party

8 Education Secondary school or less Some college or university Completed college or university Post graduate studies Sample Liberal New Democratic Green Another Party Region Eastern South-western Northern Sample Liberal New Democratic Green Another Party

9 Wynne Approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kathleen Wynne is doing as premier? Age/Gender Male Female Sample Approve Disapprove Income <$20K $20-$40K $40-$60K $60-$80K $80-$100K $100-$250K Sample Approve Disapprove Education Secondary Some college or Completed college Post graduate school or less university or university studies Sample Approve Disapprove Region 9 Eastern South-western Northern Sample Approve Disapprove

10 Ballot intention New Other Liberal Green Democratic Parties Sample Approve Disapprove

11 Ford Approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job Doug Ford is doing as leader of the s? Age/Gender Male Female Sample Approve Disapprove Income <$20K $20-$40K $40-$60K $60-$80K $80-$100K $100-$250K Sample Approve Disapprove Education Secondary Some college or Completed college Post graduate school or less university or university studies Sample Approve Disapprove Region 11 Eastern South-western Northern Sample Approve Disapprove

12 Ballot intention New Other Liberal Green Democratic Parties Sample Approve Disapprove

13 Horwath Approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job Andrea Horwath (HOR-vath) is doing as leader of the NDP? Age/Gender Male Female Sample Approve Disapprove Income <$20K $20-$40K $40-$60K $60-$80K $80-$100K $100-$250K Sample Approve Disapprove Education Secondary Some college or Completed college Post graduate school or less university or university studies Sample Approve Disapprove Region 13 Eastern South-western Northern Sample Approve Disapprove

14 Ballot intention New Other Liberal Green Democratic Parties Sample Approve Disapprove

15 Expectation of winner Regardless of which party you will vote for, in your opinion, who will win the provincial election? Age/Gender Male Female Sample Liberal New Democratic Green Income <$20K $20- $40- $60- $80- $100- $40K $60K $80K $100K $250K Sample Liberal New Democratic Green Education Secondary school or less Some college or university Completed college or university Post graduate studies Sample Liberal New Democratic Green

16 Region Eastern South-western Northern Sample Liberal New Democratic Green Ballot intention New Other Liberal Green Democratic Parties Sample Liberal New Democratic Green For more information: Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. President Forum Research Inc. Tel: (416) Fax: (416)