EXPECTATIONS FOR MARKETS AND TRADE

Transcription

1 EXPECTATIONS FOR MARKETS AND TRADE INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND FISHERIES (CONXEMAR-FAO) 2 October 2017 Stefania Vannuccini Stefania.Vannuccini@fao.org

2 Increasing number of cronically undernourished people: 815 million (11%)

3 Prevalence of undernourishment highest in Africa, but highest number in Asia

4 Food security and nutrition status Millions of children suffering nutrition deficiency Billions of obese or overweight people Vitamin A deficiency Causes blindness. 250 million preschool children affected. Iron deficiency Anaemia contributes to 20% of all maternal deaths. 40% of preschool children anaemic in developing countries. Iodine deficiency Impairing cognitive development in children 54 countries still iodine-deficient Source: WHO Trend Worldwide obesity has nearly doubled since Adults (aged 20 or older) More than 1.4 billion (35% of total) overweight in 2008 Over 200 million men and nearly 300 million women (11 % of total) obese in Children (under the age of 5) More than 40 million children overweight or obese in Source: WHO

5 Fish and Nutrition

6 Fish and Nutrition Fish provides many valuable nutrients protein long-chain omega-3 fatty acids (Eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and Docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) fat-soluble vitamins minerals like iron, calcium, iodine, zinc & selenium With numerous health benefits (known) reduced risk of cardiac death, aids neurodevelopment in unborn infants A daily intake of 250 mg of EPA and DHA per adult gives optimal protection against coronary heart disease related. At least eat fish twice a week! (probable) reduced risk of stroke, (possible) reduced risk of depression Which are important in developing countries fish provides nutrients where they are most needed cheap small pelagics growing component of developing country diets

7 Fish food supply

8 Fish contribution to human nutrition Latin America & the Caribbean Northern America Oceania Europe Africa Asia LIFDCs World Per capita fish consumption (kg) Share of fish in total animal proteins (%)

9 Fish production & utilization Fish production (million tonnes live weight) Per capita fish supply (kg) Non-food uses Aquaculture for human consumption Capture for human consumption Per capita food fish supply Excluding aquatic plants. 2016/2017: estimate/forecast

10 Fish food supply by species groups Million tonnes (live weight equivalent) Freshwater and diadromous fish Demersal fish Crustaceans Cephalopods Pelagic fish Molluscs, excl. cephalopods Marine fish, other Aquatic animals, others

11 Status of stocks: 2013 Percentage of stocks assessed 31.4% of overfished stocks 68.6%of stocks fished within biologically sustainable levels: 58.1% fully fished 10.5% underfished But signs of recovery due to improved management of some of the stocks

12 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook Joint OECD-FAO report (13 th ) Country collaborators Aglink-COSIMO, partial equilibrium model 10 year horizon Major temperate commodities Global coverage Special theme: Southeast Asia

13 200 Total fish production Million tonnes Aquaculture Capture OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook Excluding aquatic plants.

14 Surpass of aquaculture (2013 and 2021) Million tonnes Total capture 80 Capture for food Aquaculture OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook Excluding aquatic plants.

15 Per capita fish consumption Aquaculture for human consumption Capture for human consumption OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

16 Per capita fish consumption Kg (lw) World Developing countries Developed countries Africa Latin America North America Europe Asia Oceania OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

17 Per capita consumption of fish and meat in 2026 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

18 Share of production being traded million tonnes live weight Production Exports Excluding aquatic plants. 2016/2017: estimate/forecast

19 Exports of fish and fishery products US$ billion Excluding aquatic plants. 2016/2017: estimate/forecast

20 World fishery trade will grow at a lower rate Million tonnes(lw) Trend Imports excluding intra EU OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

21 Growth in trade volumes OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

22 FAO Fish Price Index ( = 100) TOTAL AQUACULTURE CAPTURE

23 Trade of fish and fishery products South America 10% Exports Europe 36% North America 17% Imports Asia 33% North America 8% Africa 4% Oceania 2% Central America & Caribbean 2% Asia 38% Africa 4% South America 2% Oceania 2% Central America & Caribbean 1% Europe 41%

24 Fish production million tonnes live weight Africa Asia Europe Latin America North America Oceania Inland fisheries Marine capture Aquaculture

25 Fish production million tonnes live weight Africa Asia, excluding China + Oceania China Europe Latin America North America Inland fisheries Marine capture Aquaculture

26 Major areas Million tonnes Fish production Asia, inland waters Million tonnes Fish production - Pacific, Northwest, area 61 Share in 2015 Area Total Capture Aquaculture Capture2.7 Aquaculture

27 Share of imports in food fish consumption Percentage Africa Asia Europe Latin America & Caribbean North America Oceania

28 Africa: imports Value 2% 35% 27% 6% 28% 1%

29 Regions more dependent on imports 7% 8% 62% 8% 15% 1% 23% 17% 8% 1% 49% 1% 4% 9% 68% 2% 4% 13%

30 Regions less dependent on imports 3% 11% 26% 2% 58% 1% 13% 18% 3% 51% 11% 4%

31 Key producers and traders Developing countries: 74% capture 95% aquaculture volume

32 Uncertainties Capture fisheries: Natural productivity of fish stocks and ecosystems Climate change, incl. El Niño phenomenon Aquaculture: Areas and water Fish seeds and feeds Diseases Technology, financial resources, regulations Trade and consumption Trade policies, market access, trade agreements, food safety and traceability 32

33 Climate change (Intergovernamental Panel Climate Change)

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35 Specific impacts of CC on food security

36 Impact of CC on fisheries and aquaculture

37 Challenges to fishing communities

38 Impacts of CC on consumption and trade Effects on availability and circulation of fish goods Patterns and livelihood of producers and exporters Change in species vs nutritional habits Impact on fish prices Impact on food security

39 Resilience

40 THANK YOU