U.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013

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2 U.S. Overview Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013

3 Uneven global economic recovery Annual real GDP growth projections (%) Projections World United States Euro Area Japan Other advanced economies Brazil China India Mexico Russia South Africa Source: IMF, July 2013.

4 Markets have recovered Indexed S&P 500 Index monthly average (October 2007 = 100) S&P 500 Index Sources: Standard and Poor s, Moody s Analytics.

5 Weak employment rebound compared with previous recoveries Percent change in total nonfarm employment from the start of a recession Months after the start of recession Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Milken Institute

6 Labor market gaining some momentum Non-farm employment, United States Percent change, year ago Difference from previous month, thousands Absolute change (right) % change (left) Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.

7 Unemployment is dropping United States Percent Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody s Analytics.

8 Workforce participation rate in decline United States Percent Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody s Analytics.

9 Long-term joblessness still a challenge Percent unemployed for 27 weeks or more Percent Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody s Analytics.

10 Employment gap by education Jobless rates for adults, 25 and older Percent High school diploma Less than a high school diploma 8 6 Some college or associates degree Bachelor s degree and higher Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11 State and local government cuts act as a drag on the economy U.S. employment Percent change, year ago 4 2 Private Government Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.

12 Consumers remain cautious U.S. real personal consumption expenditures Percent change, year ago Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight.

13 Consumer debt service ratio is lowest in 30 years Debt service payments as percent as a share of disposable of disposable personal income, percent Source: U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

14 Auto sales continue strong recovery Light vehicle sales Millions, SAAR Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Milken Institute.

15 U.S. home sales pick up Single-family home sales Percent change, year ago Existing homes New homes Sources: National Association of Realtors, Moody s Analytics.

16 Fewer foreclosures and delinquencies Percent of mortgages past due and in foreclosure Percent 11.0 Percent % Mortgages in foreclosure (right) % Mortgages past due (left) Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): National Delinquency Survey; Moody's Analytics.

17 U.S. home prices are rising steadily Median existing single-family home price Percent change, year ago Sources: National Association of Realtors, Moody s Analytics.

18 Housing starts are trending upwards United States Millions of units Single-family units Multi-family units Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, IHS Global Insight.

19 Home mortgage interest rates are rising Contract interest rate on fixed-rate conventional 30-year loans Contract interest rate, percent Source: Federal Home Loan Bank Board.

20 10-year Treasury bond yields are up Treasury constant maturities nominal - 10 year (% per annum, NSA) Percentage Points Source: U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

21 U.S. corporate bond spreads 7-year corporate bonds (spread over U.S. Treasury) BBB-rated A-rated Source: Thompson Reuters Datastream.

22 U.S. corporate profits are steady U.S. corporate profits before tax (without IVA and Ccadj.) US$ trillions Sources: Federal Reserve Board, IHS Global Insight.

23 Purchasing managers index indicates growth in business operations Institute for Supply Management diffusion indices Index Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing Sources: Institute for Supply Management, Moody s Analytics.

24 Business investment lost ground U.S. fixed nonresidential private domestic investment Percent change, year ago Equipment and software Structures Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight.

25 Manufacturing is on the mend Value of new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft Percent change, year ago Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, IHS Global Insight.

26 Tech spending rebounds Real U.S. private domestic investment and personal consumption expenditures on ITC equipment and software Percent change, year ago Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, IHS Global Insight.

27 U.S. small businesses still cautious Small Business Optimism Index Index Sources: National Federation of Independent Businesses, Moody s Analytics.

28 U.S. commercial and industrial lending returns to normal Quarterly change, US$ billions Sources: Federal Reserve Board, IHS Global Insight.

29 U.S. manufacturing is competitive Costs, relative unit of labor (2008 = 100) Source: Oxford Economics.

30 Extraction of natural gas and crude oil from shale drives growth in production United States Trillions of barrels 3.5 Trillion cubic feet Oil production (left) Natural gas production (right) Source: Energy Information Administration.

31 Exports are stagnant U.S. international trade in goods and services Percent change, year ago Exports Imports Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, IHS Global Insight.

32 U.S. trade in goods and services Merchandise exports by region, Country Value (US$ bil.) Share of U.S. Exports (%) Canada % EU % Mexico % South America % China % Japan % United Kingdom % Germany % South Korea % Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

33 Two-speed recovery Projections after 2013 Real GDP growth, percent Developing economies World Advanced economies Source: International Monetary Fund.

34 Foreign exchange rates are stable U.S. dollar vs. GB pound, euro, Japanese yen Indexed U.S. dollar exchange rate, Jan 2007 = Yen Euro 60 Pound Sources: IMF-IFS, EUROSTAT, European Central Bank, National Central Banks, IHS Global Insight.

35 Major equity indices In U.S. dollars Previous DJIA peak = Dow Jones Nikkei 225 Euro Stoxx 50 Shanghai A Share 20 0 Source: Bloomberg.

36 Federal government net saving United States US$ billions, SAAR Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight.

37 Federal balance sheet still growing United States $ Billion 4,000 3,500 3,000 Other assets 2,500 2,000 Treasuries 1,500 1,000 MBS / Agency debt Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Milken Institute. Note: Other assets include lending to banks and liquidity to key credit markets.

38 Lower R&D expenditures inhibit U.S. competitiveness Selected countries, most recent year R&D expenditure as a percent of GDP Israel Finland Korea Japan Germany United States France United Kingdom China Sources: OECD, World Bank.

39 Innovation and high-quality research go hand in hand Selected countries Quality of scientific research institutions (score) 6.5 United Kingdom Canada France United States Israel Japan Switzerland Germany South Korea India Brazil China Innovation (score) Source: World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness report

40 Average science and math scores of 15-year-old students lag competition 2009 Scores (scaled to OECD average) 110 Science literacy Math literacy OECD Average U.S. Canada Japan Germany U.K. Czech Republic Poland Mexico Sources: U.S. National Center for Education Statistics, MAPI.

41 STEM majors tend to earn more Average U.S. annual earnings by occupations and degree (2009) All majors STEM majors STEM Health-care professional Managerial Social sciences Source: Georgetown University: Center on Education and the Workforce.

42 Consumer confidence returning more slowly to lower-income households Consumer confidence, 1985= $50,000 and over $25,000- $34, Under $15, Source: The Conference Board.

43 CEOs forecast continued slow economic growth Third Quarter 2013 Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Survey Indices Source: Business Roundtable, September 2013.

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