Local systems, Europe and globalisation: How to get it right?
|
|
|
- Candace Jones
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Local systems, Europe and globalisation: How to get it right? Jean-Paul Fitoussi Professor, IEP Paris President, OFCE «Culture and Knowledge: Local Systems in a Global Context» European Colloquia Prague, November 30th 2006
2 I - Prolegomena Globalisation The phenomena of globalisation is happening in a world populated by nation States, without any emptiness in between the Nations. What is the function of a Nation state if not to protect its population? More than ever the Nation States of the world are well and alive the hyper power of the United States, the super power of China, Russia, India, etc Jean-Paul Fitoussi/2
3 I - Prolegomena Globalisation Hence the rhetoric of globalisation clashes with the reality of the phenomena as power and protection are putting strict limits on the interplay of free markets. The European Union is a case of its own: it is populated by nations which are no more full states as they have given up important elements of sovereignity especially in the euro area and the Union is not yet a full state. Jean-Paul Fitoussi/3
4 I - Prolegomena Globalisation Hence the concern among the European populations about protection. Protection is not protectionism. Indeed, it is the main incentive for people to live in society. Besides each nation is organized in several territories which constitute themselves local systems of protection. In other words some of the protection is delegated to local systems. Jean-Paul Fitoussi/4
5 I - Prolegomena Glocalisation But local systems have a dynamic of their own, just because they are the places where people live. From that came the idea of glocalisation, meaning that what matters is the direct link between the territories and the world. I do not subscribe to this idea. The local system, the country system and the european system are narrowly cooperating or so it should be to increase the welfare of the citizens (which are all living in local systems). Jean-Paul Fitoussi/5
6 I - Prolegomena Hence the title of this congress, «La cultura e la conoscenza: sistemi locali in un contesto global» is both right and wrong. Jean-Paul Fitoussi/6
7 II The short run - Forecasts 2006/ Real oil prices - Relative stability of the dollar Jean-Paul Fitoussi/7
8 Forecasts 2006/2007 Weight 2005 GDP (in volume) Germany France Italy Spain Euro Zone England European Union (15) new countries European union (25) U.S Japan Industrial countries Russia China Other asiatic countries Latin America Africa Middle East World Jean-Paul Fitoussi/8
9 Real oil prices Source: World Economic Outlook, IMF, April Jean-Paul Fitoussi/9
10 Relative stability of the dollar? 1,3 1,2 Euro 1,1 1 Yuan 0,9 Yen 0,8 0, Source: Financial Markets, BCE, 2006 et calculs OFCE. Jean-Paul Fitoussi/10
11 III - The long run - GDP Trends Assessing European economic performances - GDP per capita (PPP) - The widening of the gap : GDP growth Jean-Paul Fitoussi/11
12 III - The long run If we look ahead, the most likely evolution would be the following: - The share of Asia in the world GDP will importantly increase - The share of the US wil increase in the OECD GDP - The share of the euro area will decrease at the world level, at the OECD level and at the European level Jean-Paul Fitoussi/12
13 GDP trends Asia* 269 6,4%** ,0%** Euro zone 136,5 USA 160,2 2,0%** *Asia includes China, India, South Corea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapour ** Average growth Sources : Banque Mondiale & OCDE. Jean-Paul Fitoussi/13
14 GDP Trends England 2,4 % Euro Zone 2,0 % Japan 1,3 % Sources : OCDE-PIE. Jean-Paul Fitoussi/14
15 Assessing European economic performances Can such evolutions be avoided? The increase of the share of Asia is utterly normal, but the decrease of the share of the euro area is pathological. What are the reasons and how can it be avoided? Since the beginning of the 1980s, European Economic performance has been poor. The catch-up process visà-vis the US has come to a term at the beginning of the eighties. Jean-Paul Fitoussi/15
16 GDP Per capita (PPP) 0.9 France 0.8 Euro Royaume-Uni Jean-Paul Fitoussi/16
17 GDP Per capita (PPP) 0,90 Germany France 0,85 0,80 England 0,75 0,70 Italy Euro 4 0, Jean-Paul Fitoussi/17
18 The widening of the gap : GDP Growth 6% 5% USA 4% 3% 2% England 1% FRA EURO 0% 1997q1 1998q1 1999q1 2000q1 2001q1 2002q1 2003q1 2004q1 2005q1 2006q1 Jean-Paul Fitoussi/18
19 IV What s wrong with the european government - The monetary policy of the ECB - Consumer prices index Jean-Paul Fitoussi/19
20 And now? The monetary policy of the ECB Apparently, the monetary policy of the ECB has been successfull England Euro zone USA 0 sept m ai-06 janv ier-06 sept m ai-05 janv ier-05 sept m ai-04 janv ier-04 sept m ai-03 janv ier-03 sept m ai-02 janv ier-02 sept m ai-01 janv ier-01 sept m ai-00 janv ier-00 sept m ai-99 janv ier-99 Jean-Paul Fitoussi/20
21 Consumer prices index 5 4,5 4 3,5 USA 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 Euro zone England Sources : OCDE-PIE. Jean-Paul Fitoussi/21
22 And now? 7 But in actuality, it has been a policy of benign neglect vis-à-vis the exchange rate 1, Taux directeur de la BCE (e.g.) 1,3 1,2 3 2 Taux de change euro dollar (e.d.) 1, ,9 0 0,8 s ept m ai-06 janv ier-06 s ept m ai-05 janv ier-05 s ept m ai-04 janv ier-04 s ept m ai-03 janv ier-03 s ept m ai-02 janv ier-02 s ept m ai-01 janv ier-01 s ept m ai-00 janv ier-00 s ept m ai-99 janv ier-99 Jean-Paul Fitoussi/22
23 Macroeconomic policies & industrial strategy This monetary strategy seems all the more detrimental that the level and the evolution of the exchange rate impact on the industrial structure. One of the main determinant of industrial policy is the exchange rate, especially in sectors characterised by increasing returns. Jean-Paul Fitoussi/23
24 The difficulty is compounded by the fact that Europe has no growth policy, and in particular no policy to react to the slowdown of internal demand. Fiscal policy is a case in point. Jean-Paul Fitoussi/24
25 V Macroeconomic policies & industrial strategy - Reactivity of fiscal policy - Structural reasons for the lack of reactivity - Proposals of reform Jean-Paul Fitoussi/25
26 Reactivity of fiscal policy Cumulative impulse Zone Euro RU USA Japon RU EURO -4 USA Jean-Paul Fitoussi/26
27 The economic cost of the non-political Europe: The European economic government - The European contradiction lies in the following : no policy to sustain internal demand; so growth can only be export led; but appreciation of the euro. It is as if the EU did not draw the consequences of being a big country, and continues to behave as if it were a small economy, or a developing country. Why it is so? - A federal economic government - The composition of the European economic government Jean-Paul Fitoussi/27
28 Structural reasons for the lack of reactivity - Limited national sovereignty Lack of legitimacy for the European government, once discretionary action exceeding its mandate is required Jean-Paul Fitoussi/28
29 Proposals for reform The stability and growth pact Exclude investment from deficit figures (golden rule) Jean-Paul Fitoussi/29
30 Proposals for reform The ECB Accountability : Political determination of the inflation objective and political determination of exchange rate policy Jean-Paul Fitoussi/30
31 Proposals for reform Competition doctrine Political guidelines for competition doctrine, in order to allow the conduct of industrial policies. Jean-Paul Fitoussi/31
32 A new Community? Towards an European Community for Environment, Energy and Research. Trying to combine the energy problem with the increasing «demand» for environment. Jean-Paul Fitoussi/32
Market Insights. March 29, 2019
March 29, 2019 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.2% 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.4% 2.3%
Market Insights. June 30, 2018
June 30, 2018 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.7% 1.2% 1.3% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.3%
Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip?
Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip? Ross DeVol Chief Research Officer (310) 570 4615 rdevol@milkeninstitute.org www.milkeninstitute.org Presentation
Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies
Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Marine Terminal Management Training Program October 15, 2007 Long Beach, CA Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. 1 Agenda Economic
The structure of the euro area recovery
The structure of the euro area recovery Rolf Strauch, Chief Economist JPMorgan Investor Seminar, IMF Annual Meetings Washington, October 2017 The euro area: a systemic player in global trade Trade openness
Session 4. Growth. The World Economy Share of Global GDP Year 2011 (PPP)
Session 4. Growth Stylized Facts on Standards of Living across Countries Characterizing Growth over 1 Years: The US Economy Growth Dynamics of the G7 Countries and the OECD Economies Characterizing Growth
Global Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Mark A. Wynne Vice President & Associate Director of Research Director, Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Presentation to Vistas Conference
sector: recent developments VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO
The economy and the banking sector: recent developments VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO January 2006 Recent performance of the economy and prospects Factors behind the period of slow growth Challenges to the Banking
The outlook: what we know, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns
The outlook: what we know, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns 24 April 2017 Seoul Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1
Airlines, the economy and air transport demand
Airlines, the economy and air transport demand Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1 Returns for airlines investors lower this year;
France : Economic developments and reforms, where are we heading?
France : Economic developments and reforms, where are we heading? The Economic Club of New York : 18 April 2018 François VILLEROY de GALHAU, Governor of the Banque de France 1 WHERE ARE WE STARTING FROM?
Outline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook
2017 International Economic Outlook Everett Grant Research Economist Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas October 2017 The views expressed are those of the author and
The Euro Area: A Reality Check
Fletcher School, Tufts University The Euro Area: A Reality Check Prof. George Alogoskoufis Monetary Cooperation in Europe Four sub-periods in the evolution of monetary cooperation in the European Union.
GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST
GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST BREXIT TRUMPISM EURO-TRUMPISM 4 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 LET S GET GEOPOLITICS IN PERSPECTIVE
After the British referendum
Future of Europe After the British referendum Broader issues for the UK and the EU David Marsh, Managing Director, OMFIF 27 October 2016 Nicosia 1 European politics moves against integration A new phase
Better in than out? Economic performance inside and outside the European monetary union. Roma, Rapporto Europa 2015
Better in than out? Economic performance inside and outside the European monetary union Rapporto Europa 2015 Roma, 9.7.2015 1 Table of Content I. The political threat Why European monetary union? II. Europe
Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness
Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness 9 June 2015 Bank of Canada and European Central Bank Conference Tim Lane Deputy Governor Bank of Canada The global economy remains weak and
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 11 th MULTI-YEAR EXPERT MEETING ON COMMODITIES AND DEVELOPMENT 15-16 April 2019, Geneva Saudi economic growth strategy on the face of oil price uncertainty
16. Key Facts about Long Run Economic Growth
Fletcher School, Tufts University 16. Key Facts about Long Run Economic Growth E212 Macroeconomics Prof. George Alogoskoufis How we Measure and Compare Living Standards Living standards are usually measured
The Shifts and the Shocks Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times
The Shifts and the Shocks Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times Peterson Institute for International Economics 9 th October 2014 Washington DC The Shifts and the
Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel. 29 June 2007 John Walker
Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel 29 June 2007 John Walker jwalker@oxfordeconomics.com Oxford Economics Founded in 1981 Over 300 clients including blue chip companies and government
Emerging from the euro debt crisis Making the single currency work
Emerging from the euro debt crisis Making the single currency work Dr. Michael Heise, Allianz SE American Institute for Contemporary German Studies Johns Hopkins University Washington D.C., August 20,
2019 Global Travel Forecast: Air, Hotel and Ground Prices
2019 Global Travel Forecast: Air, Hotel and Ground Prices Methodology 28 countries and 10 US cities Airlines, Hotel, Rental Car Forecast in USD, guidelines on currency exchange forecast Forecast projections
RISI LATIN AMERICAN CONFERENCE. (São Paulo, 16 August 2016) The Latin American Economy: Some Successes, Many Disappointments
RISI LATIN AMERICAN CONFERENCE (São Paulo, 16 August 2016) The Latin American Economy: Some Successes, Many Disappointments Andrea Boltho Magdalen College University of Oxford and Oxford Economics GDP
Car Production. Brazil Mexico. Production in thousands. Source: AMIA Asociacion Mexicana de la industria automotriz.
Car Production Production in thousands 4000 3000 2000 1000 Brazil Mexico 0 2013 2014 2015 Source: AMIA Asociacion Mexicana de la industria automotriz. Mexico s Expanding Middle Class Percent of population
Financial Stability Implications of Changing Global Finance: Policy Panel Global Finance in Transition
Financial Stability Implications of Changing Global Finance: Policy Panel Global Finance in Transition May 7 and 8, 2013 İstanbul, Turkey Outline 1 The Financial System 2 Weak Growth 3 4 5 Unprecedented
RISI EUROPEAN CONFERENCE. (Barcelona, 6 March 2018) The European Economy Things look good just now. Can this last?
RISI EUROPEAN CONFERENCE (Barcelona, 6 March 2018) The European Economy Things look good just now. Can this last? Andrea Boltho Magdalen College University of Oxford and Oxford Economics CONCLUSIONS OF
Susan J. Adams, PhD IMF-PFTAC Coordinator
A MACROECONOMIC PORTRAIT OF THE PACIFIC: A Presentation for PEGASeS August 16, 2007 Susan J. Adams, PhD IMF-PFTAC Coordinator Compiled by the IMF Asia and Pacific Department Edited by PFTAC OUTLINE OF
The U.S. & Global Economic Outlook Greg Ip, U.S. Economics Editor, The Economist Remarks to The American Sportfishing Association
The U.S. & Global Economic Outlook Greg Ip, U.S. Economics Editor, The Economist Remarks to The American Sportfishing Association Hilton Head, S.C. Oct. 9, 2012 How We Got Here Great Moderation = More
Vermont Economic Conference:
Vermont Economic Conference: Mapping Our Economic Future Michael Dolega Director & Senior Economist TD Economics January 5 2018 Summary Global economy gathering speed, leading to another upgrade in outlook.
Dr Neil J. Bristow. 8 th WSD Steel Success Strategies European Steel Conference London, 30 th November H & W Worldwide Consulting
Dr Neil J. Bristow 8 th WSD Steel Success Strategies European Steel Conference London, 30 th November 2010 neil.j.bristow@hwworldwideconsult.com +61240286268 H & W Worldwide Consulting 1. Brief comparison
US imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly
US imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly Ratio to GDP (current dollars) 0.07 US merchandise imports, 1978 2008 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 Industrial Non-OPEC other 0.01 0 OPEC = Organization
Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real
Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry
Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry Presented to: AAPA Marine Terminal Management Training Program April 24, 2006 Charleston Riverview Hotel Charleston, SC - USA
Global Construction Outlook: Laura Hanlon Product Manager, Global Construction Outlook May 21, 2009
Global Construction Outlook: Short-term term Pain, Long-term Gain Laura Hanlon Product Manager, Global Construction Outlook May 21, 2009 What This Means for You The world is set to be hit this year with
MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES DURING THE NEXT RECESSION
OXYGEN EVENTS CONFERENCE GALA PERFORMANCE 2017 MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES DURING THE NEXT RECESSION - THE CASE OF ROMANIA - Ph.D. Andrei RĂDULESCU Senior Economist, Banca Transilvania Researcher, Institute
Trade and Economic Trends
Trade and Economic Trends Marine Terminal Management Training Program Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Commerce & Transportation IHS Global Insight Long Beach, CA September 21, 2009 The Global Recession
Austria: Key Economic Features
Austria: Key Economic Features and EU Guanghua School of Management Josef Christl, Macro-Consult 16. Oktober 2017 Austria: a small, but rich country Population, mn. GDP per capita PPP, USD 1600 60000 1400
Recent Fiscal Developments and Outlook: The April 2014 IMF Fiscal Monitor Julio Escolano
Recent Fiscal Developments and Outlook: The April 214 IMF Fiscal Monitor Julio Escolano Division Chief, Fiscal Policy and Surveillance Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF Joint Vienna Institute, Vienna, June,
The Nordic countries in figures
The Nordic countries in figures 2010 Order your Nordic Statistica Yearbook 2010 on www.norden.org Nordic countries in figures 2010 ANP 2010:773 T RY K S A G N R. 541-618 Nordic countries in figures 2010
The Baltic economies: Current situation and future trends, possibilities and pitfalls
The Baltic economies: Current situation and future trends, possibilities and pitfalls Riga, 15 October 2015 Morten Hansen Head of Economics Department, Stockholm School of Economics in Riga Member of the
Global trade: how does it look?
Edmonton, December 2018 Global trade: how does it look? Marie-France Paquet The Office of the Chief Economist Global Affairs Canada Overview 1. Canadian economy at a glance 2. Provincial economy at a glance
De-Globalization: Does That Word Mean What You Think it Means?
De-Globalization: Does That Word Mean What You Think it Means? Presentation to 35 Annual Monetary & Trade Conference Mykyta Vesselovsky, Ph.D. Office of the Chief Economist Global Affairs Canada April
Setting the scene The ICT landscape in BRIC countries
1 Setting the scene The ICT landscape in BRIC countries / Disclaimer The views expressed are those of the presenter and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European
The Eurozone integration, des-integration and possible future developments
The Eurozone integration, des-integration and possible future developments 18 th Monetary Policy Workshop at the Berlin School of Economcs and Law, 12 13 October 2017 Overview Position 1: The euro itself
THE ICELANDIC ECONOMY AN IMPRESSIVE RECOVERY BUT WHAT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD?
THE ICELANDIC ECONOMY AN IMPRESSIVE RECOVERY BUT WHAT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD? FROM BUST TO BOOM. AN EPIC BUST After 16 years of growth with a short pause for breath in 2002, the Icelandic economy entered
XL Meeting of the Network of Central Banks and Finance Ministries: Latin America Roundtable
XL Meeting of the Network of Central Banks and Finance Ministries: Latin America Roundtable Ernesto Talvi Academic Director, CERES (Uruguay) Nonresident Senior Fellow & Director Economic and Social Policy
China s Industrial Capabilities and Trade
China s Industrial Capabilities and Trade Loren Brandt Thomas Rawski June 16, 2005 Key Facts: China, 2003 Population: 1.3 billion (1 st ) GNP: $US 1.4 trillion (3 rd ) Foreign Trade: $US 850.1 (3rd) GNP
Global economic cycle has slowed
Year-on-year % change Confidence index, 50= no change Global economic cycle has slowed 25% 70 20% International trade growth 65 15% 10% Industrial production growth 60 5% 55 0% 50-5% Business confidence
School of international and Public Affairs. Columbia University Manuel Pinho
School of international and Public Affairs Columbia University Manuel Pinho SPHERE WITH CORE What matters to China matters to the world Do not give lessons to China: Europe and the US The challenges: Growth
Global growth forecasts Key countries/regions,
Global growth forecasts Key countries/regions, 2014-2018 Percent 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Developing Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean United States Euro area
Chief Economist s Report
Chief Economist s Report 22 February 2017 IATA Legal Symposium, Washington Brian Pearce Chief Economist, IATA Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1 Themes 1. World economy still stuck on
Outlook 2008/09 Life In the Aftermath of the Great Global Credit Crisis. May 8 th, Presented by:
Outlook 2008/09 Life In the Aftermath of the Great Global Credit Crisis May 8 th, 2008 Presented by: Patricia Croft, Vice President & Chief Economist Phillips, Hager & North Investment Management Limited
Grasshoppers, Ants and Locusts: the future of the world economy
Ralph Miliband Series on the Restructuring of World Power Grasshoppers, Ants and Locusts: the future of the world economy Martin Wolf Associate editor and chief economics commentator, Financial Times Professor
The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference
The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Big Issues The broken crystal ball A crisis that happens once in 100 years From a country oriented
Energy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union
Energy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union GTSP Annual Meeting May 29, 2008 Presented by M. Evans Looking back Overview Economic and demographic trends Energy trends and energy intensity Toward
The Herzliya Indices. National Security Balance The Civilian Quantitative Dimension. Herzliya Conference Prof. Rafi Melnick, IDC Herzliya
The Herzliya Indices National Security Balance The Civilian Quantitative Dimension Herzliya Conference 2015 Prof. Rafi Melnick, IDC Herzliya 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
The Great Convergence: China, India and the new global economy. Mark Thirlwell Program Director, International Economy July 2006
The Great Convergence: China, India and the new global economy Mark Thirlwell Program Director, International Economy July 2006 India Two views of the largest economies in 2005 Top 12 economies by GDP,
The Global Recession: How Bad, How Long? The Global Recovery: How Robust, How Widespread?
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK CONFERENCE 18 JUNE 2009 HILTON SANDTON, JOHANNESBURG The Global Recession: How Bad, How Long? The Global Recovery: How Robust, How Widespread? Nariman Behravesh Chief Economist June 18,
Global Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes. Tom Rogers. Lead Economist, Oxford Economics.
Global Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes Tom Rogers Lead Economist, Oxford Economics trogers@oxfordeconomics.com 16 th January 2013 Overview External environment showing signs
Airline industry outlook 2019
Airline industry outlook 2019 Brian Pearce Chief Economist 12 December 2018 Million barrels a day US$ per barrel Are the markets signalling recession ahead? 60 55 Business confidence (left scale) FTSE
Global Containerboard Outlook
Global Containerboard Outlook European Conference March 2018 Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper Packaging Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper
International Trade Economic Forecasts An Overview of Orange County and Southern California Exports
International Trade Economic Forecasts An Overview of Orange County and Southern California Exports Mira Farka Adrian R. Fleissig Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies Orange County / Inland
Chinese-US Economies in Comparison and Interaction: Now and Future as China Economist Surveys
Chinese-US Economies in Comparison and Interaction: Now and Future as China Economist Surveys Key outcome of the 19 th CPC National Congress: Chinese society's principal contradiction has changed 40 yeas
Assessing Risks to the Global Economy Amid Rising Political Uncertainty
AUTOMOTIVE Assessing Risks to the Global Economy Amid Rising Political Uncertainty 8 September 2016 Detroit Nariman Behravesh, Chief Economist, +1 781 301 9101, nariman.behravesh@ihsmarkit.com. All Rights
RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins
RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins CICA/RBC Q4 2011 Business Monitor Economic Results Overview Business and Economic Optimism Begin to Stablize 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % National Optimism
Maximizing Tourism Marketing Investments A Canadian Perspective
Maximizing Tourism Marketing Investments A Canadian Perspective Understanding the potential of markets Economics: GDP; Inflation; Unemployment; Employment; Disposable Income; Private Consumption; Consumer
URBAN LAND INSTITUTE
URBAN LAND INSTITUTE 2012 ULI FALL MEETING (Denver, 18 October 2012) The Global Economic Outlook Dark clouds on the horizon Andrea Boltho Magdalen College University of Oxford Oxford Economics and REAG
US-China Trade Conflict: Dejavu or New One
US-China Trade Conflict: Dejavu or New One Lessons From US-Japan Trade Conflict in 1980s and 1990s Tamotsu Nakamura & Yoichi Matsubayashi Plan of Talk 1. US-Japan Trade Conflict in Retrospect 2. Similarities
Abel M. Mateus Universidade Nova de Lisboa
Abel M. Mateus Universidade Nova de Lisboa It is widely known the success of Asian Tigers But is less known that Portugal was one of the few countries, similar to the Asian Tigers, that changed from a
Macroeconomic Imbalances in
Macroeconomic Imbalances in the Euro Area Jürgen von Hagen Rome, 21 May 2011 Europe: Growing imbalances within, balanced without 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 10 Figure 1A: Current Account Balances IE EL FR FI IT SE
International Economic Outlook: Shifting International Trade Routes
International Economic Outlook: Shifting International Trade Routes Larry Boorstein, Project Manager, AECOM Prepared for Shifting International Trade Routes, January 29-30, 2015, Tampa, presented by AAPA
U.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013
U.S. Overview Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 Uneven global economic recovery Annual real GDP growth projections (%) Projections 2013 2014 World 3.1 3.1 3.8 United States 2.2 1.7 2.7 Euro Area
The Mystery of Growing Foreign Exchange Reserve
The Mystery of Growing Foreign Exchange Reserve January - March 2007 Total increase = $136 Billion Trade surplus 34% To be explained 54% Net FDI inflow 12% Source: PBoC Renminbi Pressure Indicator Initial
The Revived Bretton Woods System: Does It Explain Developments in Non-China Developing Asia?
The Revived Bretton Woods System: Does It Explain Developments in Non-China Developing Asia? Presentation for conference on The Revived Bretton Woods System: A New Paradigm for Asian Development? Federal
Climate Change & India
Climate Change & India New Delhi How has India warmed over the past 117 years? How the temperatures have increased seasonally? How far away we are from 1.5 degree C target? Methodology 117 years (1901-1916)
China from a Macroeconomist s Perspective. Kim J. Ruhl
China from a Macroeconomist s Perspective Kim J. Ruhl NYU Stern China Initiative Research Luncheon February 22, 2011 China as number 1? Gross Domestic Product: 2010 (bil. USD, at exchange rates) 1. United
The U. S. Economic Outlook: Robert J. Gordon
The U. S. Economic Outlook: Upside and Risks Robert J. Gordon Ottawa a Economics Association Ottawa, a, September 14, 2017 Immigration Medical Care My Policy Package: Be Like Canada d University Tuition
The Future of the World s International Education
The Future of the World s International Education long-term driving forces or trends that influence almost everything at all levels of societal development. They have great importance now, and we are relatively
Outlook for growth, traffic and airline profits
Outlook for growth, traffic and airline profits Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1 50 = no change in output expected Widespread
Montreal Real Estate Forum. Economic Outlooks for March 31, Cooperating in building the future
Montreal Real Estate Forum March 31, 2015 Economic Outlooks for 2015 François Dupuis Vice-President and Chief Economist Desjardins Group Cooperating in building the future Outline The global economy and
Growth Strategies and Dynamics in Developing Countries. Michael Spence Hamilton Project/CGD Forum Washington D.C. April 14, 2008
Growth Strategies and Dynamics in Developing Countries Michael Spence Hamilton Project/CGD Forum Washington D.C. April 14, 2008 1 The Focus The subject is sustained high inclusive growth and the policies,
How Capitalism Was Built
How Capitalism Was Built The Transformation of Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia Anders Åslund Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Washington, DC, September
The World Picture A View for Sea Trade
The World Picture A View for Sea Trade Presented to: AAPA Marine Terminal Management October 20, 2008 Baltimore, MD Presented by: Scott Sigman Principal, Global Trade & Transportation IHS Global Insight
Inland Empire International Trade Economic Forecast
Inland Empire International Trade Economic Forecast Mira Farka Adrian Fleissig Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies Orange County / Inland Empire Regional SBDC Network California State University,
Opening address for dinner-debate
Opening address for dinner-debate Mohammed Barkindo Acting for the OPEC Secretary General European Parliament Strasbourg, France 4 July 2006 1 Outline Importance of EU-OPEC Energy Dialogue Current oil
National Responses to the Eurozone Crisis
National Responses to the Eurozone Crisis Which Labour Market Reform Strategy? Germany, Netherlands, Spain and Ireland Introduction What has been the policy response of European and national actors to
Assessing Australia s Innovative Capacity in the 21 st Century
Assessing Australia s Innovative Capacity in the 21 st Century Professor Joshua Gans MBS & IPRIA University of Melbourne November, 2003 This presentation is based on the National Innovative Capacity Project,
Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack
Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum Canada leading the pack Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com September 2017 Brighter global outlook gains traction
Lecture 3 The Lisbon Strategy
Lecture 3 The Lisbon Strategy Outline The Lisbon European Council held in March 2000 recognized the need of reforming labour,, product, and financial markets in order the performance of the EU economy
Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area Discussion by
Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area Discussion by Agnès Bénassy-Quéré May 25, 2007 1 International financial integration 6 Avg abs. value of current account in % of GDP 5 4 3 2 1 0 1870-74 1880-84
Henley Global Masterclasses 2017 Henley Business School, Greenlands, Henley-on-Thames Friday 12 May 2017
The End of the Golden Era for Global Investing Prof Sotiris Tsolacos International Capital Markets Association (ICMA) Centre and School of Real Estate & Planning Henley Global Masterclasses 2017 Henley
The World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review
The World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review Michael Keenan Harbor Planning and Economic Analyst Port of Los Angeles October 5, 2009 Review of 2007 Container Trade
Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013
1 Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 June 2012 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist Summary Higher economic growth in 2013, possible
The Economy of Finland
The Economy of Finland Aug 30st 2013, Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs Presentation for the American Fulbright Grantees Petteri Rautaporras, Economist at the Federation of Finnish Technology Industries
Can Manufacturing Still be a Driver of
Can Manufacturing Still be a Driver of Inclusive Growth? Robert Z Lawrence Albert L Williams Professor of Trade and Investment Harvard Kennedy School Senior Fellow, MasterCard Center for Inclusive Growth
Unconventional Monetary Policy: Thoughts on the U.S. and Japanese Experiences
Unconventional Monetary Policy: Thoughts on the U.S. and Japanese Experiences International Conference on Capital Flows and Safe Assets John Rogers Senior Adviser Federal Reserve Board May 27, 2013 The
Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009
Economic Outlook and Ports Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009 The Outlook for Trade Depends on Goods Demand Integrated international supply-chains offer efficiencies
AREA TOTALS OECD Composite Leading Indicators. OECD Total. OECD + Major 6 Non Member Countries. Major Five Asia. Major Seven.
Reference series Composite leading indicators OECD Composite Leading Indicators AREA TOTALS 7-03- 19 OECD Total 19 OECD + Major 6 Non Member Countries 19 Major Seven 19 Major Five Asia 19 Euro area 19
GLOBAL IMBALANCES: PRE- AND POST-CRISIS. GIAN MARIA MILESI-FERRETTI International Monetary Fund Research Department
GLOBAL IMBALANCES: PRE- AND POST-CRISIS GIAN MARIA MILESI-FERRETTI International Monetary Fund Research Department The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the IMF or its