SPM 9541 November 2010 Aad Correljé

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1 Gas system & actor description: The case of the Dutch gas system June 29, 2011 SPM 9541 November 2010 Aad Correljé 1

2 The Natural Gas Market Value chain Set up of regulatory and market system in the Netherlands Changes under market development Liberalization Dutch interests June 29, NAM

3 A value chain June 29,

4 Characteristics of the value chain. Specific Lumpy Investment, Long lead times, high upfront cost Fixed v. variable cost Seasonal and daily patterns Long distance Scale Economies Capacity utilization Volume Risk Price Risk Essential facilities June 29,

5 Integration and coordination of the gas value chain in the past Production: Oil Companies Long term TOP/DC Net Back contracts Transmission: National Joint Venture Operators Cost plus Storage: National Joint Ventures Cost plus Distribution: Public Local Municipal Firms Cost plus Retail trade: Oil parity pricing, market segmentation Long term planning and supply/demand coordination June 29,

6 Bcm Natural gas in Netherlands De Pous Lubbers Van Aardenne II Van Aardenne De Korte Wijers Groningen On-shore Off-shore Import Series5 Total supply June 29, A. Correlje

7 Transition: The 1960s Competing sources of energy Who gets what Role of the State (sheik-effect) Winners and losers June 29,

8 June 29, SHELL, 1962

9 Shell versus Exxon: Segmented markets Gas for all domestic users (heating & cooking) Industrial premium markets (chemical, metallurgical, keramic) Market value (heating oil, fuel oil, coal) Progresively declining prices Control over production 70-90% state share June 29,

10 Sector structure June 29, A. Correlje

11 Gasnet 64 en 68 June 29, Gasunie 1964/68

12 Tonnes Coalequivalent 140 Consumption June 29, 2011 Coal Oil Natural Gas Other 12 A. Correlje

13 Advantages No storage, no handling, nor dirt Easy control Wheater independent Production: < 1ct cm; utility: 6 ct; Consumer < 300 cubic: 25 ct: > 300: 20 ct > 600 cm. : 10 ct. Growth in Income, GDP and industry and housing boom June 29,

14 1000 of millions cubic metres Gas use Utilities Industry Elec. Prod. Export Inland sales June 29,

15 billion cubic meter Reserves Growth Cum. Use Gron. Cum. Use Terr. Cum. Use Tot. Gron. URR Tot. URR Tot. Remaining Res. June 29,

16 Export June 29, Odell, P.R,1969 Natural gas in Western Europe; a case study in the economic geography of resources

17 1000 of millions cubic metres Export Suisse Italy France Belgium Germany June 29, A. Correlje

18 1973/1974 oil crisis Security of supply, Club of Rome Reduction in consumption Stimulating small fields on-/off-shore Low cost Groningen marginal H- and L Gas: conversion, transmission, mix June 29,

19 1000 of millions cubic metres Reduction in Consumption Utilities Industry Electricity Prod. Export June 29, Aad Correlje

20 Thousands of millions m3 Natural Gas Production June 29, 2011 Off-shore On-shore 20

21 Stimulating small fields on-/off-shore June 29, Ruhrgas, 2005

22 Thousands of millions m3 Low cost Groningen marginal Groningen On-shore Off-shore Import June 29,

23 June 29, Odell, P.R,1969 Natural gas in Western Europe; a case study in the economic geography of resources

24 June 29, Gasunie, 2001

25 EU Gas Imports, 2001 Total: 250,3 bcm Nigeria 2% UK 5% Other 10% Russia 27% Netherlands 17% Source: IEA Norway 19% Algeria 20% June 29,

26 12000 Seasonal Variation June 29, A. Correlje Netherlands Norway Total Former Soviet Union Algeria Germany Libya

27 Summary: Gasunie, NAM and the others Marketvalue = price alternatives (heating and fuel oil) Users do not pay more but certainly not less! State secures production in coordination with sales to avoid shortages and excesses State receives +/- 70% of the profits Market segmentation Sectoral and regional policy Small fields policy June 29,

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