Colorado Economic Update
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1 Colorado Economic Update Steamboat Economic Summit Place cover image here Brian Lewandowski Associate Director, Business Research Division October 21, 2016
2 Recession 8 Months Recession 18 Months Real GDP and Potential Real GDP Trillions, USD 22 Actual Projected Potential Real GDP Real GDP Source: Congressional Budget Office, August 2016 report An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2016 to 2026.
3 Employment Losses and Recovery Peak to Trough Months to Recovery % -6% -4% -2% 0% Percentage Change Number of Months Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Business Research Division.
4 Real GDP Growth Quarterly and Annualized Real GDP Percent Annualized GDP Annualized GDP Annualized GDP Present Quarterly GDP Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and June 2015 NABE Forecast.
5 Components of Growth Percent Change 8 Personal Consumption Expenditures 6 Year-over-Year SAAR Q Q Q Q Q2 SAAR Government Spending Year-over-Year SAAR Q Q Q Q Q Percent Change Fixed Business Investment Year-over-Year SAAR Q Q Q Q Q1-40 Q Q Q Q Q Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Business Research Division. SAAR Goods Exports
6 National Employment Thousands, Month-over- Month k +186K +251K +178K +174k +193K +220K Month Moving Average Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), National Bureau of Economic Research, Moody s Analytics, and the BRD.
7 Labor Underutilization Percentage of Labor Force Average U-6 U-6 9.7% 8.0 U Average U-3 U-3 6.0% 5.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
8 Labor Force Participation Rate
9 Labor Force Participation Rates National by Age Cohort LFPR Peak Age Group Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS).
10 Labor Force and Unemployment Rate National by Educational Attainment, Population 25 and Over, 2015 Percentage LFPR Unemployment Rate 0 Less than a High School diploma High School graduates Some college, no degree Associate degree Bachelor's degree Advanced degree Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS).
11 State Employment Growth August 2016 Year-over-Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
12 National Personal Income Growth 2015 Q2 to 2016 Q2 -CO Percent Change: 3% -27 th -fastest YoY -15 th -fastest QoQ -CO Per Capita Growth: 1.1% -15 th highest in nation Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
13 Household Wealth Q Q $ Trillions Other Assets Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Mutual Funds Corporate Equities Real Estate Total Liabilities Source: Federal Reserve Board, Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations (B.101) (Not Seasonally Adjusted).
14 Household Debt Burden Percent of Disposable Income DSR 14.0 FOR Financial Obligations Ratio (Right Axis) Debt Service Ratio (Left Axis) Q2 1984Q4 1988Q2 1991Q4 1995Q2 1998Q4 2002Q2 2005Q4 2009Q2 2012Q4 2016Q2 Source: Federal Reserve, Household Debt Service and Obligations Ratios. 8
15 Index of Consumer Confidence 1985= National and Mountain Consumer Confidence Mountain Region U.S Sources: The Conference Board and National Bureau of Economic Research.
16 Colorado Economy
17 Change in Population Thousands 120 Change in Colorado Population Net Migration Natural Increase Source: Colorado Demography Office.
18 Colorado Employment Growth Jobs Added, Thousands , Best years since Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
19 Colorado Employment Change August 2015 August 2016 Total Jobs Gained Employment in Thousands 2,630 2,620 2,610 PBS Financial TTU MFG Other Info Mining ,600 2,590 Govt EHS Total jobs lost: 4,400 2,580 2,570 2,560 Const L&H Total jobs gained: 76,000 Net change: 71,600 2, ,540 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (SA).
20 Employment Recovery National, State, and Local Percent 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% Number of Months Since Peak Greeley Ft. Collins-Loveland Denver Colorado Boulder Pueblo National Colorado Springs Grand Junction Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
21 Photo Source: USDA,Forest Service, Routt County
22 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Routt County Employment 18,000 16,000 Peak: February 14,000 12,000 10,000 Trough: May 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.
23 Routt Employment and Education Educational Attainment Accomm and Food Adults over age 25 with a bachelor s degree or higher Other Construction Routt 48.7% Colorado 37.5% U.S. 29.3% Real Estate Adults over age 25 with a high school diploma or higher Health PST Govt Retail Routt 96.5% Colorado 90.4% U.S. 86.3% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IMPLAN, and U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2014 ACS 5-Year Estimates.
24 Per Capita Personal Income Routt County $70,000 $60,000 Routt National Colorado Routt $63,613 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 Routt: 38% > Nation 30% > Colorado $ Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
25 Average Annual Pay, 2015 $60,000 $50,000 Colorado $54,182 Routt $43,699 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Garfield Mesa Moffat Rio Blanco Routt Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
26 Colorado Taxable Sales Routt County $ Million $ % in 5 Years $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $ Source: Colorado Department of Revenue.
27 Colorado Taxable Retail Sales Indexed Growth Routt County Colorado Region Source: Colorado Department of Revenue.
28 Colorado Taxable Retail Sales Indexed Growth Routt County Colorado Region Source: Colorado Department of Revenue.
29 Assessed Property Values $ Millions $1,600 Routt County(L-Axis) $12,000 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 Region 11 (R-Axis) Routt County: $1.1B Region 11: $8B $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $600 $4,000 $400 $200 $2,000 $ $0 Source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs, Division of Property Taxation.
30 Assessed Property Values Colorado, Routt County, and Region 11 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Colorado Routt County Region 11 10% 0% Vacant Residential Commercial Industrial Ag Nat. Res. Mines O&G State Asses. Source: Colorado Department of Revenue.
31 Routt County Assessed Value 2004, 2009, % 50% % 30% 20% 10% 0% Vacant Residential Commercial Industrial Ag Nat. Res. Mines O&G State Asses. Source: Colorado Department of Revenue.
32 Photo Courtesy of Jill Lambert. Rural Economic Growth
33 Nonmetropolitan County Population Growth Average Annual Growth, Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Note: Gray shading represents metropolitan counties.
34 Nonmetropolitan County Employment Growth Average Annual Growth, Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
35 Average Annual Employment Growth Colorado Nonmetro Employment and Prime Working Age Population 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% -1.0% Prime Working Age Population Share Sources: State Demography Office and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
36 Percentage of Population over age 25 with HS Diploma or Equivalent Percentage of Population over age 25 with Bachelor's Degree or Higher Education and Employment Growth 100.0% High School Diploma 60.0% Bachelor s Degree 95.0% 50.0% 90.0% 40.0% 85.0% 30.0% 80.0% 20.0% 75.0% 10.0% 70.0% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% Average Annual Employment Growth, % -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% Average Annual Employment Growth, Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
37 Average Annual Employment Growth, Colorado Total Employment Growth and Agriculture Share of Value added 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Agriculture Share of Value Added, 2014 Data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
38 Average Annual Employment Growth, Colorado Total Employment Growth and Private Services Share of Value Added 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Private Services Share of Value Added, 2014 Data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
39 Routt County Population 10 th largest in population 9 th fastest growing from Top Quartile Nationally (top 100) 16 th lowest standard deviation 4 th for prime working age population (30-64) Employment 7 th largest 12 th fastest growing Top Quartile Nationally (top 100) 21 st lowest standard deviation Goods industries: Farm, Construction, Mining Services industries Real Estate, PST, AER, Accommodations and Food Services Other Assets 10 th most bank branches 6 th highest deposits 6 th highest retail per capita Energy and Mining Ski Resort Hot Springs Recreation Assets Amenities Colorado Mountain College State Highways Airport: 7 th busiest in the state
40 Conclusions Assets Demographics Economic diversity Education Leadership
41 Thank you
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