Hydrological Condition Report including the issues of High Flow Fluctuation in Chiang Saen

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1 Hydrological Condition Report including the issues of High Flow Fluctuation in Chiang Saen Technical Symposium for ESCIR and MRC on Social Impact Assessment in River Basin Management Sothea KHEM, HENG Suthy IKMP/TSD/MRCS 1-2 July, 2015 Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam

2 1. Overview of Seasonal Hydrological Trend in the LMB

3 Trend Analysis on Seasonal Change of Flows at the Upper Station of the Mekong Mainstream ( ) Annual Flow,[cms] Annual Flow,[cms] Pre-Dam 1995 Post-Dam Pre-Dam 1995 Post-D Trend of Annual Wet Season Flow at Chiang Sean ( ) Annual Flow R² = Trend of Annual Dry Season Flow at Chiang Sean ( ) Annual Flow R² = R² = Year R² = Year Annual Flow,[cms] Annual Flow,[cms] The Trend of Annual Wet Season Average Flow at VTE ( ) R² = R² = Dry Season Annual Flow P>0.05 P<0.05 Wet Season P<0.05 P>0.05 P<0.05 P> Year The Trend of Annual Dry Season Average Flow at VT ( ) R² = R² = Annual Flow Dry Season Year

4 Annual Flow,[cms] Pre-Dam 1995 Post-Dam The Trend of Annual Wet Season Flow at Pakse ( ) R² = Annual Flow P>0.05 R² = Year Annual Flow,[cms] Wet Season R² = Pre-Dam 1995 Post-D The Trend of Annual Wet Season Flow at Kratie ( ) Annual Flow P>0.05 R² = Year Annual Flow,[cms] The Trend of Annual Dry Season Flow at Pakse ( ) R² = Annual Flow R² = P> Year Dry Season Annual Flow,[cms] The Trend of Annual Dry Season Average Flow at Kratie ( ) R² = R² = Annual Flow P> Year

5 Annual Percentage Deviation of Rainfall at some selected Stations of the Mekong Mainstream ( ) Threshold: +12 Threshold: -12

6 Threshold: +12 Threshold: -12

7 Summary Since 1995, the flows in Wet season at Chiang Saen to Vientiane showed significantly declined comparing to the pre-dam period. While, the Dry Season flow at Chiang Saen to Vientiane showed significantly increasing. However, it is found that there is no significant change/affect to the flow regime from Pakse to Kratie during the wet and dry seasons. The rainfall found essentially varied from place to place, referred to the topographical features of the watershed catchments in the LMB The potential changes of hydrological regime at Chiang Saen to Vientiane might be influencing by the reservoir operation on Mekong-Lancang in China. However, there was no significant influent to the further downstream of Pakse and Kratie.

8 2. Water level fluctuation at Chiang Saen

9 Fluctuated Water Level at Chiang Saen Station Water level (m) Low Water Level in Dry Season at Chiang Sean, Compared with its Long Term Average (Nov-Dec 2009 and Jan-May 2010) Nov 16-Nov 1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan 30-Jan 14-Feb 1-Mar 16-Mar 31-Mar 15-Apr 30-Apr 15-May 30-May Fluctuation of WL Rainfall (mm) Average Date: 2010 River: Mekong Country: Thailand Flood Stage: 11.80m Alarm Stage: m Rainfall (24h): 0.0 mm Date: River: Mekong Country: Thailand Flood Stage: 11.80m Alarm Stage: m Water level: 3.72 m Rainfall (24h): 36.4 mm 9

10 Water Level Fluctuation at Chiang Saen in 2014 Fluctuation Precipitation (mm)

11 Hydrograph of Wet Season 2014 at Other Stations Flood Level:23 m Fluctuation: 14 m

12 Wet Season in 2014 Chaing Saen Luang Prabang Vientiane Pakse Kratie

13 Monthly distributed Rainfall in 2014 over LMB Heavy Rainfall Rain gauge Mean annual rainfall (mm) Rainfall 2014 (mm) Percentage (%) Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Vientiane Mukdahan NakhonPhanom Pakse Phnom Penh TanChau

14 Annual Accumulated Rainfall Distribution over LMB 2013 (Source: /MRC_Data/Data/ /) 2014

15 Calendar day The Onset and Offset Monsoon 2014 The start and end dates of the annual flood season at Vientiane between 1960 and Start day End day Apr Year Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Station Average Date Monsoon Onset 2014 Onset Date Average Date Monsoon Ofset 2014 Ofset Date Chiang Saen 9 th May 02 th May 8 th November 05 th November Luang Prabang 23 th May 28 th April 28 th October 04 th November Vientiane 5 th May 28 th April 14 th October 06 th November Mukdahan 9 th May 14 th May 8 th October 24 th September NakhonPhanom 6 th May 13 th May 9 th October 23 th September Pakse 9 th May 09 th June 11 th October 01 st October Phnom Penh 1 st June 09 th June 15 th November 11 th November TanChau 21 th May 15 th June 21 th November 05 th December

16 12 Hydrograph of Wet Season 2014 at Prek Kdam, Compared with its Exceedance Probability (P%): (Jun-Dec, 2014) 0 Water level (m) Precipitation (mm) 0 1-Jun 16-Jun 1-Jul 16-Jul 31-Jul 15-Aug 30-Aug 14-Sep 29-Sep 14-Oct 29-Oct 13-Nov 28-Nov 13-Dec 28-Dec Fluctuation Preci-2014 Average P10 P Water level (m) Hydrograph of Wet Season 2014 at Chau Doc, Compared with its Exceedance Probability (P%): (Jun-Dec, 2014) Precipitation (mm) Water level (m) Hydrograph of Wet Season 2014 at Tan Chau, Compared with its Exceedance Probability (P%): (Jun-Dec, ) Jun 15-Jun 29-Jun 13-Jul 27-Jul 10-Aug 24-Aug 7-Sep 21-Sep 5-Oct 19-Oct 2-Nov 16-Nov 30-Nov Fluctuation Preci-2014 Average P10 P Dec 28-Dec 1-Jun 15-Jun 29-Jun 13-Jul 27-Jul 10-Aug 24-Aug 7-Sep 21-Sep 5-Oct 19-Oct 2-Nov 16-Nov 30-Nov Fluctuation Preci-2014 Average P10 P Dec 28-Dec

17 The Flood Peak Index of Annual Flow and Food Volume at Kratie The 3 boxes explain the annua flood variables (peak and volume) above and below of mean values; 1. The dots within the inner box are considered as variation between years normally expected (average conditions) 2.The dots in the 2 nd box are considered as the years with significant flood & low-flow Mean Volume 271Km 3 3. The dots outside of the 2 nd box are considered as historically extreme flood & low-flow years 17

18 Conclusion in Wet Season From Chiang Saen to Vientiane during the 2014 wet season was characterized as significantly below the normal year (Low Flow), which could be partly attributed inflow at upstream (Hydro-power Operation.) 2. The flows at Pakse to Kratie were reached to the maximum levels during the early wet season (Jun-July) which influencing by the heavy rainfall and inflow from theirs tributaries. However, the flow was gradually decreased even below long term average from Aug till end of the wet season. 3. The inflow into the Tonle Sap Lake was high in early July, but drastically decreased from Aug onward. The volume of tonle sap lake in this wet season found lower then long term average condition. It leads to the significant low outflow. Chaing Saen Nong Khai Pakse Kratie 18

19 Dry Season in 2015 Chaing Saen Luang Prabang Vientiane Pakse Kratie

20 The Dry Season Flow Monitoring from Chiang Saen to Kratie (Nov., 2014 to May 2015) Chiang Saen Vientiane Fluctuated WL Fluctuated WL Pakse High WL cond. Kratie High WL cond.

21 Provided Information by China on the Dry Season Flow 2015 Based on a request from MRC Secretariat referred to very high frequency and critically flow fluctuation in upper part of LMB (Chiang Saen to Vientiane), China provided additional information on the upstream hydropower dam operation in Dry Season Flow 2015.

22 Monthly Accumulated Rainfall Distribution over MB May: mm (2014) : 0-60 mm (2015) The total acc. rainfall in 2015 is lower decreasing than 2014 during the Dry Season in May

23 Compared Regional Soil Moisture Condition-KBDI ( ) May 2014 May 2015 May: (2014) : (2015) The total water holding capacity of soil moisture in 2015 is higher increasing than 2014 during the Dry Season in May (Source:

24 The condition of Inflow and Outflow Flows of the Tonle Sap Lake, in 2014 and 2015 Inflow Period Low outflow Very low inflow Low Outflow Low inflow Outflow Period High inflow It is confirmed the outflow into the Mekong River downstream in 2014 was Lower than long term average. 24

25 Month Average Volume (km3) Volume flow 2014 (km3) Percentage Jan % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Very low Water Level from Nov to April 2015

26 Flow Regulation Function Flood Peak Cut by storing water in the Flood plain Flow increase in dry season by releasing water from the Lake Channel flow Without flood plain Flood Peak cut Flood Mitigation volume by flood plain Channel flow Regulated by flood plain Flow increase effect Flow increase in dry season by flood plain Wet Season Dry Season

27 Conclusion in Dry Season 1. The flows from Chiang Sean to Vientiane were significantly fluctuated higher than the long term average; even though no rainfall contribution. Chaing Saen Nong Khai 2. The flow from Pakse to Kratie in December 2014 was higher than its long term average due to unseasonal rainfall in November 2014 and the influent inflows from upstream reaches. 3. Further sharing of hydrological Information in the region a comprehensive technical study is required. The process can be assessed in detail such the impact of upstream inflow and practical management and mitigation measures at downstream Pakse Kratie 27

28 Conclusion Tonle Sap Lake and Mekong Delta 1. The Tonle Sap Lake was not filled-in extensively by inflow from Mekong River and its catchment inflows during the wet season. Thus, the volume of the great lake was lower than it therefore leads to the low outflow which influent to flow condition below Phnom Penh. 2. Based on the low outflow from the great lake, It is expected that the flow in Mekong Delta during the early dry season of 2015 will be in the low flow condition, but the flow will be raised once it effects by rainfall in the areas. Chaing Saen Luang Prabang Vientiane Pakse Kratie 28

29 3. Future Change in Hydrology 2

30 Impact of Reservoir Operation in Monthly Changes Chaing Saen Vientaine Flow, m3/s Chiang Saen2013 BL (85-93) Flow, m3/s Vietaine BL (85-93) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Pakse Flow, m3/s Pakse2013 BL (85-93) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 3

31 Comments on the Impact flows With the 2 big Dams of the cascade Xiaowan and Nuozhadu (Int l RIVERS info), operated in 2010 and 2012 the downstream impact were observed as follows: The fluctuated water levels at Chiang Saen down to Vientiane The increased in water levels in Dry Season could reduce the exposed riverbank area for river bank gardens (vegetable gardens ) at downstream part (Chiang Khong.) The decreased of water levels/flows in Wet Season (fill storage and regulation reservoirs). This can be caused the reduction of floodplain area and flow of nutrients from flood waters. The deduction of sediment be cause cased river bank erosion also ect Saline intrusion into the Mekong Delta will increase with flow regimes that decrease wet-season flows.

32 Preliminary conclusion on Future Changes The Impact of river flow hydrology depends the flow phenomenon, including the Climate Change (rainfall pattern and high temperature), Hydropower Operation bases on national regulation. The Impact of reservoir operation can be resulted in: Decreased in Flood Peak Delay of Flood Peak Increased in Dry Season Flow Shorten of Flood Season Reduced downstream of flood duration in the floodplain and the Mekong Delta Therefore apply for Hydrological and Hydraulic Modelling combine with Climate Change Model are necessary The affect of Sediment load transport and Salinity Intrusion should be including for the next analyses.

33 Thank You

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