Boston & Cambridge OUTLOOK 2019 Revised October 2018
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1 Boston & Cambridge OUTLOOK 2019 Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC Principal, Pinnacle Advisory Group
2 Boston & Cambridge Historic Occupancy 85.0% 80.5% 81.6% 81.5% 80.9% 82.2% 80.0% 75.0% 78.5% 73.9% 74.9% 76.0% 77.0% 74.6% 76.0% 76.7% 78.2% 70.0% 69.4% 72.2% 70.2% 71.2% 65.0% 60.0%
3 Boston & Cambridge Historic ADR $280 $260 $254 $255 $258 $240 $239 $220 $200 $180 $200 $181 $165 $166 $175 $195 $209 $214 $183 $190 $199 $216 $219 $160 $154 $140 $120 $
4 Boston & Cambridge Historic RevPAR $250 $207 $206 $212 $200 $195 $150 $157 $126 $119 $108 $123 $131 $148 $161 $160 $131 $144 $152 $169 $176 $100 $
5 Boston & Cambridge RevPAR % Change 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 7.9% 13.5% 7.0% 12.7% 8.8% 10.6% 5.4% 10.8% 4.4% 10.4% 6.4% 3.0% 0.0% -0.8% -0.5% -5.0% -5.3% -10.0% -9.3% -15.0% -20.0% -19.7% -18.2% -25.0%
6 Boston & Cambridge Supply & Demand 10,000,000 8,000,000 CAGR Supply 2.3% Demand 2.5% CAGR Supply 1.4% Demand 3.2% 4.7% increase in supply in 2016, largest since 03 6,000,000 4,000,000 Supply Surge last three years: 2011 to 2014 (4yrs) : +103,000 rooms 2015 to 2017 (3yrs): +636,000 rooms 2,000, Supply Demand
7 Boston & Cambridge Supply & Demand, % Change 6.0% 4.7% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.9% 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Supply Demand
8 Boston & Cambridge YTD Performance, Sept 2018 YTD Sep 2017 YTD Sep 2018 % Change Occupancy 83.5% 84.0% +0.5% ADR $ $ % RevPAR $ $ %
9 Boston & Cambridge Future Rooms Supply Under Construction 12 Projects 3,224 Rooms Granted Approval 18 Projects 3,262 Rooms Awaiting Approval 10 Projects 2,900 Rooms 40 Projects and 9,386 Rooms in Pipeline Source: BPDA, CCDD, Compiled by Pinnacle Advisory Group Projects as of October 30, Does not include preliminary or rumored projects.
10 Boston & Cambridge New Supply 2018 Hotel Neighborhood Chain Scale Rooms Est. Opening Courtyard North Station North End / Downtown Upscale 220 Mar 2018 AC Hotel Ink Block South End Upscale 205 Mar 2018 Studio Allston Hotel Allston Indep. 117 Apr 2018 AC Hotel Cleveland Circle Brighton / Brookline Upscale 162 May 2018 Holiday Inn Express South Boston (Expansion) South Boston Upper Mid-Scale 60 Jul % Supply Increase In 2018 Hotel 1868 Cambridge Indep. 50 Dec 2018 Source: Various Sources, Compiled by Pinnacle Advisory Group
11 Boston & Cambridge New Supply 2019 Hotel Neighborhood Chain Scale Rooms Est. Opening Residence Inn West Roxbury Roxbury Upscale 135 Q1 The Revolution Hotel South End Indep. 164 Q1 Hyatt Centric Congress Square Downtown Upper Upscale 163 Q1 Four Seasons Back Bay Back Bay Luxury 211 Q1 Cambria South Boston South Boston Upscale 159 Q1 Moxy Theater District Theater District Upper Midscale (micro) 346 Q2 5.4% Supply Increase In 2019 Luxury Boutique Beacon Hill Beacon Hill Indep. 66 Q2 907 Main Cambridge Indep. 67 Q3 Source: Various Sources, Compiled by Pinnacle Advisory Group CitizenM North Station West End Upscale (micro) 269 Q4 Source: Various Sources, Compiled by Pinnacle Advisory Group
12 Boston & Cambridge Projections % Change Occupancy 82.2% 82.5% +0.4% 3.1% growth in demand! ADR $ $ % RevPAR $ $ %
13 Boston & Cambridge Projections % Change Occupancy 82.5% 82% -1.2% 3.7% growth in demand! ADR $260 $ % RevPAR $215 $ %
14 Pinnacle Advisory Group Boston New York City Newport Beach Portland Washington DC Tampa Hospitality Consulting Asset Management Real Estate Appraisal Litigation Support
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