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1 Real gross domestic growth United States, 2000 prices Compound annual growth rate Sources: BEA, Global Insight.
2 Consumer sentiment University of Michigan, diffusion index Index (1966Q1=100) Sources: University of Michigan, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
3 Real consumer spending United States Percent change, year ago Sources: BEA, Global Insight.
4 Real fixed non-residential domestic investment United States, 2000 prices Percent change, year ago Sources: BEA, Global Insight.
5 Computer and peripheral equipment Private fixed investment US$ billions, SAAR 105 Percent change, year ago Investment level (L) Change (R) Sources: BEA, Global Insight.
6 Software Private fixed investment US$ billions, SAAR Sources: BEA, Global Insight Investment level (L) Change (R) Percent change, year ago
7 Electronic components Change in value of orders Percent change, year ago New orders Unfilled orders Sources: U.S. Census, Global Insight.
8 Nondefense capital spending (excluding aircraft) Change in value of new orders Percent change, year ago Sources: U.S. Census, Global Insight.
9 National defense spending Expenditures and gross investment Percent change, year ago Sources: BEA, Global Insight.
10 Oil consumption United States Barrels per $100K of real GDP Sources: Energy Information Administration, Global Insight, Milken Institute.
11 Real consumer spending on durable goods United States Percent change, year ago Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Global Insight.
12 Retail sales Excluding motor vehicles Percent change, year ago Sources: U.S. Census, Global Insight.
13 Manufacturing managers diffusion index Institute for Supply Management Index Sources: Institute for Supply Management, Global Insight.
14 Crude oil spot price West Texas Intermediate Dollars per barrel Sources: Wall Street Journal, Global Insight.
15 Retail gasoline prices Regular grade US$ per gallon Sources: Wall Street Journal, Global Insight.
16 Corporate profits Profits before tax (without IVA and CCadj.) Percent change, year ago Sources: BEA, Global Insight.
17 Corporate spread Moody s corporate Aaa minus 10-yr treasury bond Percentage Points Sources: Federal Reserve, Moody s Economy.com, Milken Institute.
18 Interest rates Fed funds rate vs. rate of long-term government bonds Percent Government bonds Fed funds rate Sources: Federal Reserve, Global Insight
19 Yield curve 10-year government bond minus fed funds rate Percent Sources: Federal Reserve, Milken Institute.
20 S&P 500 composite Dividend yield Ratio Sources: Standard & Poor s, Milken Institute.
21 Foreign direct investment Direct investment inflows US$ billions Sources: IMF, Global Insight.
22 Foreign purchases of U.S. securities Net foreign purchases US$ billions Sources: BEA, Global Insight.
23 Real estate investment trusts (REIT) sector Net acquisition of financial assets US$ billions Sources: Federal Reserve, Milken Institute.
24 Household savings Percent of disposable personal income Percent Sources: Federal Reserve, Milken Institute.
25 Federal expenditures As percent of GDP Percent Sources: BEA, Global Insight.
26 Federal budget deficit SAAR US$ billions Sources: BEA, Global Insight.
27 Federal budget deficit As percent of GDP Percent Sources: BEA, Global Insight.
28 Employment picture United States Percent Unemployment rate (L) Percent change, year ago Employment change (R) Sources: BLS, Global Insight.
29 Construction vs. total non-farm employment United States Percent change, year ago Construction Total non-farm Sources: U.S. Census, Moody s Economy.com.
30 Wages and unemployment United States Percent Unemployment rate (L) Percent change, year ago Real wages (R) Sources: BLS, Global Insight.
31 Civilian unemployment rate United States Percent Sources: BLS, Global Insight.
32 Construction-put-in-place United States Percent change, year ago 30 Non-residential Residential Sources: U.S. Census, Moody s Economy.com.
33 Housing affordability index United States Base= Sources: NAR, Global Insight.
34 Consumer inflation rate Consumer prices and wages Percent change, year ago Real wages Core CPI Sources: BLS, Global Insight.
35 Consumer price index Food and energy Percent change, year ago Energy 10 0 Food Sources: BLS, Global Insight.
36 Dollar at record lows Major currencies index (in real terms) Index (March 1973=100) Sources: Federal Reserve, Moody s Economy.com.
37 Euros per dollar Exchange rate Euros per dollar Sources: BLS, Global Insight.
38 Official reserves Total reserves minus gold US$ billions Reserves minus gold (L) As % of GDP (R) Percent Sources: IMF, Global Insight.
39 U.S. international trade Exports vs. imports (goods and services) Percent change, year ago Exports 10 0 Imports Sources: U.S. Census, Global Insight.
40 Trade balance Merchandise exports and imports US$ billions Imports Exports Trade balance Sources: U.S. Census, Global Insight.
41 Exports to G-8 Merchandise exports Percent change, year ago Canada U.K Japan Sources: U.S. Census, Global Insight.
42 Exports to newly industrialized countries and China Merchandise exports Percent change, year ago China Newly industrialized countries Sources: U.S. Census, Global Insight.
43 Exports to NAFTA Merchandise exports Percent change, year ago Canada Mexico Sources: U.S. Census, Global Insight.
44 Single-family home sales United States Millions, SAAR 6.5 Millions, SAAR New homes (R) Existing homes (L) Sources: U.S. Census, National Association of Realtors, Moody s Economy.com.
45 Median existing single-family home price United States US$ thousands Sources: National Association of Realtors, Moody s Economy.com.
46 Median existing single-family home price United States Percent change, year ago Sources: National Association of Realtors, Moody s Economy.com.
47 Single-family housing starts United States Percent change, year ago Sources: U.S. Census, Global Insight.
48 Homes sit longer on the market United States Millions 4.0 Months Homes available for sale (L) Months supply (R) Sources: National Association of Realtors, Moody s Economy.com.
49 Mortgage rates United States Percent yr fixed yr ARM Sources: Mortgage Banker s Association, Moody s Economy.com.
50 Mortgage originations United States US$ trillions, SAAR Total originations Refinance originations Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Moody s Economy.com.
51 Growing share of subprime loans in foreclosure United States Millions of loans 7 Percent Percent in foreclosure (R) Loans serviced (L) Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.
52 Commercial and industrial loans Commercial banks assets US$ billions Sources: Federal Reserved Board, Moody s Economy.com, Milken Institute.
53 Flow of commercial mortgages All sectors US$ billions, SAAR Sources: Federal Reserve, Global Insight.
54 U.S. competitive advantages Global Competitiveness Report, Category Rank/131 University/industry research collaboration 1 Technological Readiness 1 Utility patents 1 Venture capital availability 1 Brain drain 1 Quality of scientific research institutions 2 Company spending on R&D 2 Local avail. of specialized research & training serv. 2 Firm-level tech absorption 4 Availability of latest technologies 6 Source: The Global Competitiveness Report 07-08
55 U.S. competitive disadvantages Global Competitiveness Report, Category Rank/131 Business costs of terrorism 124 National savings rate 107 Government surplus/deficit 91 Government debt 89 Primary enrollment 69 Wastefulness of government spending 53 Quality of math and science ed. 45 Education expenditure 43 Secondary enrollment 42 Burden on government regulation 40 Source: The Global Competitiveness Report 07-08
56 Quality of math and science education (1 = Lag s far behind most countries, 7 = Among best in the world) Score Mean = India Korea,Rep. Japan Russian Fed. Canada Germany U.K. U.S. Mexico China Source: The Global Competitiveness Report 07-08
57 Value chain breadth (1 = Companies primarily involved in production, 7 = Do more than just produce) Score Mean = Japan Germany Korea, Rep. U.K. U.S. India Canada Russian Fed. Mexico China Source: The Global Competitiveness Report 07-08
58 Availability of scientists and engineers (1 = Nonexistent or rare, 7 = Widely available) Score Mean = Japan India Canada U.S. Germany Russian Fed. Mexico Korea, Rep. U.K. China Source: The Global Competitiveness Report 07-08
59 Capacity for innovation (1 = Low, 7 = High) Score Mean = Japan U.S. Germany Korea, Rep. U.K. Canada India China Mexico Russian Fed. Source: The Global Competitiveness Report 07-08
60 Consumer credit debt United States US$ billions Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Moody s Economy.com.
61 Household properties with foreclosure activity United States, 2007 Thousands Sources: Realty Trac, Wikipedia. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
62 Delinquency rates At all commercial banks Percent Residential real estate loans Commercial loans Sources: Federal Reserved Board, Moody s Economy.com.
63 Mortgage loan frauds reported United States Thousands Source: Financial Crimes Enforcement Network.
64 Subprime crisis overview December current S&P 500 Index Dec. 06 Ownit Mortgage, a subprime lender, files for bankruptcy Feb. 07 HSBC says it set aside $10.6b for bad loans, incl. subprime 12/06 Apr. 07 New Century, a mortgage broker, files for bankruptcy Jul. 07 Two Bear Stearns hedge funds file for bankruptcy Aug. 07 Fed cuts discount rate to 5.75% Sources: BusinessWeek (March 31, 2008), Standard & Poor s, Global Insight. Jan. 11, 08 BofA agrees to buy Countrywide Oct. 07 Merrill announces $7.9b in subprime write-downs, surpassing Citi s $6.5b Jan. 30, 08 Fed cuts discount rate to 3.5% 07Q1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4 Mar. 11, 08 Fed offers troubled banks as much as $200b Mar. 16, 08 JP Morgan offers to buy Bear Mar. 18, 08 Fed cuts discount rate to 2.4%; Fed funds rate to 2.25% 08Q1
65 Subprime write-downs MBS and CDOs Note: As of April 21, 2008, financial institutions had recognized subprimerelated losses or write-downs exceeding U.S. $245 billion. Sources: The Banker (March 2008), Wikipedia. Loss Rank Company (US$ billions) 1 Citigroup $ UBS $ Merrill Lynch $29.1 4HSBC $ Morgan Stanley $11.5 6AIG $ Bank of America $8.0 8 Deutsche Bank $7.0 9 JP Morgan Chase $ Wachovia $5.0
66 Bond insurance losses Stemming from subprime debt US$ billions 20 $19.0* $2.5 $ *Projected, Sources: Bloomberg Markets (March 2008).
67 Federal Spending Under CBO s Alternative Fiscal Scenario 40 Percentage of Gross Domestic Product Actual Projected Medicare and Medicaid 10 Social Security Other Spending (Excluding debt service)
68 Sources of Growth in Projected Federal Spending on Medicare and Medicaid Percentage of GDP Effect of Excess Cost Growth Interaction of Aging and Excess Cost Growth 5 Effect of Aging of Population
69 Medicare Spending per Beneficiary in the United States By Hospital Referral Region, 2005
70 S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index and Implied Values from Futures Prices Percentage Change from a Year Ago
71 Mortgage Delinquencies Percentage of Loans
72 Mortgage Foreclosures Initiated Percentage of Loans
73 Rates on 30-Year Mortgages Percent
74 Popular Adjustable-Rate-Mortgage Indexes Percent
75 Inferred Prices of Subprime Mortgage Tranches Cents, 100 Is Par
76 Yields on 10-Year Bonds Percent
77 Spread Between the Three-Month Libor Rate and the Expected Federal Funds Rate Percentage Points
78 Human Capital Nobel Prize winning economist Gary Becker estimates that human capital comprises approximately 75% of the assets of the U.S Human Capital $238 Trillion Market 2005 U.S. Balance Sheet $62 Trillion Market Human & Social Capital 74% U.S. Financial Assets 26% Non- Corporate Equities 10% Pension Fund Reserves 17% Other Financial 5% Corp. Equities & Mutual Funds 16% Bonds Deposits 4% 10% Other Tangible 6% Real Estate 32% Sources: Gary Becker. Source: U.S. Federal Reserve.
79 Return on Human Capital Investment R e t u r n Preschool Programs School Opportunity Cost of Funds The rate of return to a dollar investment made while a person is young is higher than the rate of return to the same dollar made at a later age. Nobel Prize Economist James Heckman Job Training Age Source: James Heckman, University of Chicago.
80 Per Capita GDP $30,000 $25,000 $28,939 15x $20,000 $15,000 Singapore Jamaica $10,000 $5,000 $0 Source: IFS, WEO; in 2006 USD. $1,899 $1, $3,929 3x
81 Wages and Unemployment United States Percent Unemployment rate (L) Percent change, year ago Real wages (R) Sources: BLS, Global Insight.
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85 If the President s tax cuts are not extended, taxes will soon far exceed their historical level. Federal Receipts Projections Percent of GDP Current law 19.0 Extend tax cuts year historical average = Source: Congressional Budget Office, Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2008 to 2018.
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