2018 Farm Bill Update and Agricultural Outlook

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1 2018 Farm Bill Update and Agricultural Outlook August 23, 2018 Dr. Scott Brown Agricultural Markets and Policy Division of Applied Social Sciences

2 2018 Farm Bill Timing House Agriculture Committee April 18, 2018 House Floor Failed May 18, 2018 Passed June 21, 2018 ( ) Senate Ag Committee June 13, 2018 Senate Floor June 28, 2018 (86 11) House appoints conferees July 18, 2018 Senate appoints conferees August 1, 2018 Conferenced agreement before October 1, ???

3 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Current Law, Farm Bill Spending $867.2 Billion

4 ARC and PLC payment rates, period averages 4 Dollars per participating base acre Corn PLC Corn ARC Soybeans PLC Soybeans ARC Rice PLC Seed cotton PLC avg avg Source: FAPRI-MU estimates. 2014/ /17 average based on data reported by USDA. The projected average for 2019/ /24 uses the FAPRI-MU March 2018 stochastic baseline adjusted for seed cotton provisions.

5 30,000 Foot View of Senate and House Farm Bill Versions Reauthorizes many of the title 1 programs contained in the 2014 farm bill with some adjustments in each bill Most visible difference in SNAP House makes more revisions to the conservation title Crop insurance remains critical in both bills

6 House Bill - H.R. 2 Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018 Title 1 Changes Producers in severe drought areas over the period would be allowed to update yields for PLC benefits Effective Reference Price means the lesser of the following: (A) 115% of the reference price for such covered commodity; or (B) the greater of: (i) the reference price for such covered commodity; or (ii) 85% of the Olympic average of the marketing year price for the most recent 5 crop years Payment limits more extended family members eligible

7 HR 2 Title 1 Spending Change, CBO Million Dollars

8 House Bill - H.R. 2 Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018 Title 2 Changes Increases Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP) to $3 billion annually by 2023 Increases annual funding for the Agricultural Conservation Easement Program (ACEP) Eliminates the Conservation Stewardship Program (CSP) beginning 2019

9 HR 2 Title 2 Selected Conservation Spending Changes, CBO Million Dollars 1,500 1, ,000-1,500-2, EQIP ACEP CSP

10 House Bill - H.R. 2 Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018 Title 4 Changes Section 4015, Workforce Solutions Section 4006, Update to Categorical Eligibility Section 4008, Earned Income Deduction Section 4022, National Gateway Section 4010, Standard Utility Allowances Section 4011, Child Support

11 Coppess, J. and T. Kuethe. "Mapping the Fate of the Farm, 2018 House Edition." farmdoc daily (8):95, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, May 24, 2018.

12 Senate Bill - S Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018 Title 1 Changes Increases ARC benefits by adjusting the yields used in the calculation Reduces the Adjusted Gross Income limitation to $700,000

13 Title 1 Spending Changes, CBO Million Dollars HR 2 S 3042

14 Senate Bill - S Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018 Title 2 Changes CRP at 25 million acres (House 29 million acres), reduce rental rates Keeps CSP but reduces acreage to million acres

15 Title 4 Spending Changes, CBO Million Dollars HR 2 S 3042

16 Dairy and Cotton Policy Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 made changes to both programs House and Senate farm bills make additional changes Each commodity has expressed safety net concerns relative to the 2014 farm bill

17 2018 Farm Bill Summary Trade issues becoming entwined with farm bill passage this year Conference could be challenging SNAP Conservation Payment limits PLC versus ARC Mid-term elections Legislative calendar

18 U.S. Crop Acreage Million Acres Wheat Corn Soybeans

19 U.S. Crop Prices Dollars per Bushel Wheat Corn Soybeans

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23 China Tariffs for Selected Products $39,711M Value of exports since Jan 2015 (Million U.S. $) $723M $596M $239M $46M Percent Soybeans Swine offal frozen Swine cuts frozen Hams bone-in frozen April 2 increase July 6 increase current applied rate Bovine meat

24 Weekly U.S. Soybean Exports 8/20/2018 Source: USDA/FAS/Export Sales Reporting

25 U.S. Corn Yields Bushels per Acre U.S. Missouri

26 U.S. Corn Supply and Use, Aug Projected 2016/ / /19 Planted area (mil. ac.) Harvested area (mil. ac.) Yield (bu./ac.) Beginning stocks (mil.bu.) 1,737 2,293 2,027 Production 15,148 14,604 14,586 Imports Total supply 16,942 16,937 16,664 Feed 5,470 5,450 5,525 Ethanol 5,432 5,600 5,625 Food, seed, other 1,453 1,460 1,480 Exports 2,294 2,400 2,350 Total use 14,649 14,910 14,980 Ending stocks 2,293 2,027 1,684 Stocks/use ratio 15.7% 13.6% 11.2% Farm price $3.36 $3.40 $3.60

27 U.S. Corn Use 7 6 Billion bushels Feed and Residual Ethanol Exports Ending Stocks

28 Global Corn Production Million Metric Tons 1,200 1, '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 U.S. China Arg/Brz ROW

29 U.S. Soybean Yields Bushels per Acre U.S. Missouri

30 U.S. Soybean Supply & Use, Aug Projected 2016/ / /19 Planted area (mil. ac.) Harvested area (mil. ac.) Yield (bu./ac.) Beginning stocks (mil.bu.) Production 4,296 4,392 4,586 Imports Total supply 4,515 4,715 5,040 Crush 1,901 2,040 2,060 Seed, residual Total domestic use 2,047 2,176 2,196 Exports 2,166 2,110 2,060 Total use 4,214 4,286 4,256 Ending stocks Stocks/use ratio 7.2% 10.0% 18.4% Farm price $9.47 $9.35 $8.90

31 U.S. Soybean Use Billion bushels Crush Exports Ending Stocks

32 Soybean Production Million Metric Tons '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 U.S. Arg/Brz ROW

33 U.S. Meat Production Billion Pounds Beef Pork Chicken (p)

34 More Meat for U.S. Consumers Still to Come Pounds per Person Domestic Meat Availability

35 Beef Availability per U.S. Resident Percent Change vs. Year Ago fed steer price change: AVG MAX MIN 11 years with <-1% Q change 7.0% 24.7% -10.3% 9 years with -1 to 1% Q change 1.4% 7.8% - 4.2% 6 years with >1% Q change -5.7% 6.6% -18.4% (p)

36 Selected Retail Meat Prices Chicken breast, boneless Chicken legs, bone-in Ham, boneless Pork chops Bacon, sliced Sirloin steak Round steak Beef for stew Round roast Chuck roast Ground beef Jan-Jun 2018 vs. 2017: -3.5% -4.1% +4.7% -3.0% -1.7% +4.5% -1.2% N/A -0.6% -1.2% +2.8% Percent Change, 2017 vs. 2010

37 Know What to Look For Moving Forward Average profitability will struggle through 2019 Large supplies weigh on prices and limit any rallies The market will struggle to assess tariff impacts Weather and tariff news important to market movement Locking in positive profits will be difficult Trade Assistance Package International market development Direct payments soybeans, corn, hogs, dairy Domestic market purchases Missouri crop outlook different than the US

38 Questions Dr. Scott Brown University of Missouri 222 Mumford Hall Columbia, MO (573) 882 Weekly Livestock Update, Brownfield Ag News

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