Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
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1 Chart Collection for Morning Briefing September 11, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box
2 Figure 1. REAL GDP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION DEFLATOR, & FEDERAL FUNDS TARGET RATE Real GDP* (2.2) PCED* (1.4) Federal Funds Rate (1.1) Q2 Jul * Yearly percent change. Source: Federal Reserve Board and Bureau of Economic Analysis Figure 2. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & BUSINESS CYCLES (percent) Aug Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 3 / September 11, 2017 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
3 Figure 3. US TREASURY 10-YEAR BOND & TIPS YIELDS (percent, daily) 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield (6) TIPS Yield (0.25) Source: Federal Reserve Board. -.5 Figure 4. EXPECTED INFLATION IN 10-YEAR TIPS* (percent, daily) Expected Inflation (1.81) * Nominal minus TIPS yield. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 4 / September 11, 2017 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
4 3 Figure 5. COPPER FUTURES PRICE & US TREASURY 10-YEAR BOND YIELD Copper Futures Price* (cents per pound) Year Yield (percent) * Nearby futures contract. Source: Haver Analytics. 700 Figure 6. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & COPPER FUTURES PRICE Spot Price Index* (1967=) Copper Futures Price** (cents per pound) * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures contract. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. Page 5 / September 11, 2017 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
5 Figure 7. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEXES (1967=) Spot Price Index (517.2) Metals Component* (893.1) * Includes scrap copper, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc. Source: Haver Analytics. Figure 8. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Spot Price Index* (1967=) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan. Page 6 / September 11, 2017 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
6 Figure 9. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Spot Price Index: Metals* (1967=) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan. 60 Figure 10. COPPER FUTURES PRICE & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR J P Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) 9/1 95 Copper Futures Price** (cents per pound) * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. **Nearby futures contract. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan. Page 7 / September 11, 2017 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
7 Figure 11. FUTURES PRICES* Brent Crude Futures Price (dollars per barrel) Copper Futures Price (cents per pound) * Nearby futures price. Source: Haver Analytics. 700 Figure 12. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX Spot Price Index* Brent Crude Oil Futures Price** (dollars per barrel) * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures price. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. Page 8 / September 11, 2017 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
8 85 Figure 13. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Brent Crude Oil Futures Price* (dollars per barrel) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) * Nearby futures price. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics. 700 Figure 14. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (in local currencies) & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX 00 Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (local currencies) 00 Spot Price Index* * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Commodity Research Bureau. Page 9 / September 11, 2017 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
9 700 Figure 15. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (in dollars) & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX (daily) 1 Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (in dollars) Spot Price Index* * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Commodity Research Bureau. 85 Figure 16. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (in local currencies) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley Capital International. Page 10 / September 11, 2017 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
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