The 2019 Economic Outlook Forum The Outlook for MS

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1 The 2019 Economic Outlook Forum The Outlook for MS February 2019 Mississippi University Research Center Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning Darrin Webb, State Economist (601) To subscribe to our publications, Janna Taylor at Visit our website for state and county level economic data Follow URC on

2 Quick Overview of National Economy After a robust 3.4% growth in the 3 rd quarter, the economy cooled in the fourth quarter (IHS Markit says 2.4%) Despite the late-year slowdown, 2018 Growth was at or near 3.0% While the US economy remains fundamentally sound, a variety of forces will drive growth slower in 2019 (IHS Markit says 2.1%) February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 2

3 Millions of 2012 $ Annual Growth: % % % % % % % % % % $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 Annual MS Real GDP 12% 10% 8% 6% Annualized Quarterly Growth $60,000 4% 2% $40,000 $20,000 $0 Very little upward momentum since the recession. 0% -2% -4% -6% Positive growth in 6 of the last 7 quarters. Growth in the first half of 2018 was notably stronger. -8% February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 3

4 Real GDP Growth Private Sector VS Government 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Contractions in government had a notable dampening effect on GDP growth in 2010, 2012 and Roughly 83% of MS GDP comes from the private sector Private Government Total February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 4

5 Index 2004=100 MS Index of Coincident Indicators Improvement in the MSCI has been generally steady. March, April and May were essentially flat. Growth improved in the last half of Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 The Mississippi Index of Leading Indicators reflects economic conditions expected for the coming months. The index is constructed by the University Research Center and indexed to There are 7 components of the Index: MS Initial Unemployment Claims; MS Income Tax Withholdings; MS Value of Residential Building Permits; MS MFG Employment Intensity Index; ISM Index of US MFG Activity; US Consumer Expectations Index and US Retail Sales. February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 5

6 Index 2004=100 MS Index of Leading Indicators The MSLI has been relatively flat for some time and weakened in the closing months of The trend is not strong enough or long enough to suggest any real change in the economy in the shortterm. In other words, the MSLI points to continued modest improvement, but nothing more. 80 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 The Mississippi Index of Leading Indicators reflects economic conditions expected for the coming months. The index is constructed by the University Research Center and indexed to There are 7 components of the Index: MS Initial Unemployment Claims; MS Income Tax Withholdings; MS Value of Residential Building Permits; MS MFG Employment Intensity Index; ISM Index of US MFG Activity; US Consumer Expectations Index and US Retail Sales. February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 6

7 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 MS Unemployment Rate The unemployment rate is at an historically low level. 4.7% in December. 0.0 February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 7

8 Iowa Hawaii New Hampshire Vermont Minnesota Nebraska North Dakota South Dakota Virginia Idaho Wisconsin Missouri Colorado Utah Kansas Massachusetts Oklahoma Indiana Maine South Carolina Tennessee Florida Montana Arkansas Delaware North Carolina Texas United States Alabama Georgia Connecticut Michigan New York Oregon Rhode Island California Illinois Maryland New Jersey Wyoming Pennsylvania Kentucky Washington Nevada Ohio Arizona New Mexico Mississippi Louisiana West Virginia Alaska Unemployment Rate 2018 Average 14% 12% MS annual average unemployment rate for 2018 was 4.8%. There was very little variation across states for reported unemployment rates. The real unemployment rate in MS was 8.7%. This was more than 2% below the rate 2 years ago. The real unemployment rate adds discouraged and other marginally attached workers and those working part time for economic reasons. 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Unemployment Rate as commonly reported Additions to Reported Unemployed The real unemployment rate combines the two series in the chart. February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 8

9 MS Initial Unemployment Claims 25,000 Annual Average 9,000 3-Month Moving Average Seasonally Adjusted 20,000 8,000 7,000 15,000 6,000 5,000 10,000 4,000 3,000 5,000 - Claims have trended down and are at historically low levels. 2,000 1,000 0 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 9

10 Iowa Nebraska South Dakota Wisconsin Minnesota New Hampshire North Dakota District of Columbia Vermont Colorado Maryland Connecticut Massachusetts Delaware Kansas Wyoming Maine Missouri Rhode Island Pennsylvania Indiana New Jersey Montana Virginia Idaho Oregon Illinois Nevada Washington Ohio United States Michigan Georgia Utah Hawaii Florida North Carolina Texas New York California Alaska Arizona South Carolina Tennessee Kentucky Louisiana Oklahoma Mississippi New Mexico Arkansas Alabama West Virginia 88.3% 88.0% 87.8% 87.8% 87.7% 87.7% 86.8% 86.6% 86.4% 86.0% 85.6% 85.5% 85.3% 84.6% 84.6% 84.6% 84.5% 84.4% 84.3% 84.0% 83.9% 83.5% 83.3% 83.2% 82.9% 82.8% 82.7% 82.4% 82.3% 82.1% 82.1% 81.9% 81.7% 81.7% 81.2% 81.1% 81.1% 81.1% 80.9% 80.5% 80.4% 80.3% 79.6% 79.5% 79.4% 78.9% 78.8% 78.2% 77.6% 77.5% 76.6% 75.2% Prime Working-Age Labor Force Participation 90% Percentage of the Population between the ages of 25 & 54 years old that are either employed or actively looking for a job. Preliminary Annual Average for % 80% 75% 70% 65% February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 10

11 Workforce Participation by Age Group 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 64.2% 70.2% 71.1% 80.6% 80.6% 82.5% 82.9% 81.8% 79.1% 80.8% 78.9% 74.6% 52.1% 65.0% 61.9% 40.0% 35.1% 32.7% 30.0% 25.4% 19.6% 20.0% 18.6% 14.2% 10.0% 0.0% Total, 16 to 19 years Total, 20 to 24 years Total, 25 to 34 years Total, 35 to 44 years Total, 45 to 54 years Total, 55 to 64 years Total, 65 years and over MS SE (excl. MS) US February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 11

12 Thousands Nonfarm Employment in MS 1,180 1,170 1,160 Pre-Recession Peak Employment Level 1,150 1,140 1,130 1,120 1,110 1,100 1,090 Employment improved remarkably in the last half of 2017, with improvement being broad based. This surge allowed us to finally exceed the pre-recession peak. Growth in 2018 was a fairly robust 1.3%. Slightly ahead of 2015 and ,080 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 12

13 FL NC SC TN AL GA KY MS US FL AR OK TX LA AL AR GA KY MS NC SC TN US AL AR GA FL LA NC MS OK TN SC US AL LA OK AR LA KY TX MS AR GA FL LA KY NC SC OK US AR AL LA OK KY MS OK GA FL KY MS LA NC SC OK TN US AL GA FL KY MS LA OK NC TN SC US AR KY LA LA AR AL MS AL AL AR KY MS TX AR AL OK KY LA OK KY MS TN TX US AR US NC TN GA FL TX NC TN SC US TX AL GA MS OK NC SC TN US FL GA SC GA NC TN SC US TX GA NC SC TN TX TX TX FL TX FL FL Average Annual Growth in Employment 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Mississippi was not hit as hard in the recession as other states. However, the state s recovery has generally been slower. MS growth in 2018 exceeded AR, KY and LA and equal to that observed in AL -8.0% February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 13

14 Utah Texas North Dakota Colorado Washington Idaho Florida California Massachusetts Oregon Georgia South Carolina Tennessee New York Nevada South Dakota North Carolina United States Arizona Montana Minnesota Nebraska New Hampshire Virginia Oklahoma Hawaii Indiana Maryland Delaware Kentucky Pennsylvania Iowa Missouri Michigan Arkansas Wisconsin Ohio Kansas New Jersey Rhode Island Illinois Louisiana Alaska Alabama Mississippi Vermont New Mexico Maine Connecticut West Virginia Employment Relative to Pre-Recession December 2018 as a Percentage Above (Below) December % 20% 15% 10% 8.5% 5% 0% 1.2% -5% February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 14

15 Annual Average Nonfarm Employment The slow recovery is unusual historically speaking. This is due in part to a shift away from lowskill manufacturing jobs which tended to be highly responsive to the business cycle. Growth in recent years has been similar to that observed in the 80s February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 15

16 Where are the Jobs by Industry? Mississippi added an average 15,267 jobs in 2018 over 2017 Professional Services Leisure & Hospitality Education & Health Services Manufacturing Financial Activities Government Trade, Transportation & Utlities Construction Other Services Mining & logging Information ,933 2,017 1, ,133-4,000-2, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 16

17 Where are the Job by County? Jobs Gained (Lost) Source: MDES Annual Averages 2/7/19 Mississippi: 15, counties saw declines 4 counties had no change 44 counties saw gains

18 MS Construction Employment 70 Annual Average 47 Monthly Seasonally Adjusted After strong growth in the 90s, employment has generally trended downward. The notable exceptions are the period following Katrina & during large projects of Construction employment has made modest improvement in 2018, though somewhat weaker in the last half of the year. 40 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 18

19 MS Residential Building Permits Number of Units 1,400 Annual 1,000 3-Month Moving Average Seasonally adjusted 1, , Between 2007 and 2011 there was a 73% decline in activity. Despite 6 years of gain, we remain low historically Permits declined in early 2018, recovered, then remained flat. 0 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Graphs may understate building activity as permits are not required in the county. February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 19

20 MS Manufacturing Employment Annual Average 148 Monthly Seasonally Adjusted MFG employment generally declined after NAFTA. Since 2010 the state has experienced modest gains After a weak beginning, manufacturing ended strong in Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 20

21 MS MFG Workweek Length Annual Average 43 3-Month Moving Average Seasonally Adjusted Workweek length has been especially strong in recent years Workweek slowed in 2018 but remains above 40 hours Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 21

22 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Two Measures of Income Growth by Qtr Y/Y Growth by Qtr, Adjusted for Inflation -4% Withholdings, DOR Wage Disbursements, BEA Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 22

23 Real Median Household Income $52,000 $51,083 $50,000 $48,751 $48,000 $46,000 $44,000 $47,261 $47,292 $46,755 $45,665 $45,082 $44,835 $46,830 $45,874 $44,916 $42,984 $43,529 $42,933 $44,694 $46,285 $45,704 $47,198 $42,000 $40,000 $38, February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 23

24 Real Sales Tax Transfers Y/Y Growth in 6 Month Moving Average 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 24

25 Bar Graph: Millions of Dollars Line Graph: Annual % CHG MS Gaming Revenue $3,500 $3, % 15.0% $2, % $2, % $1, % $1, % $ % $0-15.0% Coast River Total % CHG Total February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 25

26 Seriously Delinquent Loans as a Share of All Mortgages in MS 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 26

27 Loans in Foreclosure as a Share of All Mortgages in MS 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 27

28 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 Number of MS Households Receiving SNAP Benefits 350, , , , , ,000 50,000 0 February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 28

29 Highlights of MS Economy MS has generally underperformed US and SE especially since the recession Most data show 2018 improved over 2017 Income growth remains modest affecting sales and income tax collection Job growth in 2018 was relatively strong with most sectors seeing gains Unemployment & initial claims are at historical lows Measures of distress (late mortgage payments, foreclosures, & SNAP participation) are all improving February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 29

30 Growth In Real MS GDP Historical and University Research Center Projections 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% 4.1% 4.2% 2.6%2.7% 2.6%2.5% 2.1% 1.7% 1.1% 1.2%1.2%1.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3%0.4% 0.0% 0.1% -0.2% -1.1% -1.3% -4.7% February 2019 MS University Research Center, IHL 30

31 Mississippi University Research Center Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning Darrin Webb, State Economist (601) To subscribe to our publications, including Mississippi s Business and The Mississippi Outlook Janna Taylor at

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