Brazil Baseline and Mitigation Scenarios
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1 Brazil Baseline and Mitigation Scenarios The 12 th AIM International Workshop William Wills Tsukuba, Japan 19-21, February 2007
2 CCAP (Center for Clean Air Policy): Dialogue on Future International Actions to Address Global Climate Change (FAD) Four key developing countries: Brazil, China, India, and Mexico Informal, off-the-record forum to discuss options for future international climate framework Two Phases: GHG Mitigation Options Policy and Implementation Strategy Financial support: United Kingdom s Department for International Development, the Tinker Foundation and the Hewlett Foundation For all presentations and working papers from the process, see:
3 Scenarios RP A2 A2 AP A2 Scenarios RP B2 B2 AP B2
4 Driving Forces Demography Economy International Oil Price Technology Energy Policy
5 Income Distribution in A2
6 Income Distribution in B2
7 Structure of the economy in A US$ GDP 10 6 ppp 1, , , , , , GDP/cap 10 6 ppp Agriculture 10 6 ppp Industry 10 6 ppp , Energy 10 6 ppp Services 10 6 ppp , , ,499.58
8 Structure of the economy in B US$ GDP 10 6 ppp 1, , , , , , GDP/cap 10 6 ppp Agriculture 10 6 ppp Industry 10 6 ppp Energy 10 6 ppp Services 10 6 ppp , , ,771.83
9 Methodological Tools: Economy Name IMACLIM-R Input variables / Exogenous parameters Output variables - input-output coefficients - prices - production capacities - quantities of output - saving rate - exports/imports - public policies (debt, public investment, fiscal system) - allocation and level of investments - capital intensity - income - labor productivity - final demands - growth parameters - evolution of public debt (increasing returns to scale, productivity growth, autonomous and endogenous technical change) Type of model/ Internal calculations recursive general equilibrium (including static equilibrium and dynamic relations for capital growth, technical change, demography, etc.) Level of Aggregation flexible in number of sectors and countries.
10 Methodological Tools: Energy Demand Name MAED Input variables / Exogenous parameters Output variables Type of model/ Internal calculations Level of Aggregation - social factors: demography (pop), useful energy demand parametric model useful energy: - equipments: energy efficiency, - specific use of - energy forms - thermo uses: ind, res, - prices - fuels for transport: - fuels for motors - non-energet. Use - coke
11 Methodological Tools: Energy Supply Name MESSAGE Input variables / Exogenous parameters Output variables Type of model/ Internal calculations Level of Aggregation - useful energy - consumption of resources, - inter-temporal - electricity - prices: primary energy primary, secondary, final energy, optimization model - gas and final energy, technology, imports, exports, stocks - biomass operation costs - needs for investment - coal - emissions, environmental - oil and derivates - sugar cane, - alcohol,
12 CO2 Emissions in Industry MMt CO A2 Recent Policies A2 Advanced Options B2 Recent Policies B2 Advanced Options
13 A2 and B2 Scenarios Light Vehicles Energy Consumption (PJ) Recent Policies A2 Advanced Policies A PJ NGV Ethanol Gasohol PJ NGV Ethanol Gasohol Recent Policies B2 Advanced Policies B PJ NGV Ethanol Gasohol PJ NGV Ethanol Gasohol
14 CO2 Emissions from Light Vehicles Recent Policy A2 Scenario Advanced Policies A2 Recent Policy B2 Scenario Advanced Policies B2 MMtCO2
15 A2 and B2 Scenarios Heavy Vehicles Recent Policies A2 Advanced Policies A , ,00 PJ 3.000, , , , ,00 500,00 Jet Fuel Diesel Biodiesel Eletricity Fuel Oil NGV PJ 3.000, , , , ,00 500,00 Jet Fuel Diesel Biodiesel Eletricity Fuel Oil NGV Recent Policies B2 Advanced Policies B , ,00 PJ 3.000, , , , ,00 500,00 Jet Fuel Diesel Biodiesel Eletricity Fuel Oil NGV PJ 3.000, , , , ,00 500,00 Jet Fuel Diesel Biodiesel Eletricity Fuel Oil NGV
16 CO2 Emissions from Heavy Vehicles MMtCO Recent Policies A2 Recent Policies B2 Advanced Options A2 Advanced Options B2
17 CO2 Emissions from the Services Sector MMtCO Recent Policies A2 Recent Policies B2 Advanced Options A2 Advanced Options B2
18 CO2 Emissions from Households MMt CO A2 Recent Policies A2 Advanced Options B2 Recent Policies B2 Advanced Options
19 CO2 Emissions from Power Sector MMtCO Recent Policy A2 Scenario Recent Policy B2 Scenario Advanced Policies A2 Advanced Policies B2
20 Total CO2 Emissions A2 Group of Scenarios
21 Total CO2 Emissions B2 Group of Scenarios
22 Total CO2 Emissions - Energy MMtCO Recent Policies A2 Recent Policies B2 Advanced Options A2 Advanced Options B2
23 Conclusion: Additional Policies Energy efficiency in industry and transport Natural gas in industry + residential and commercial sectors Hydropower potential to be tapped Ethanol: domestic production + exports Biodiesel in transport sector Renewable power generation in remote areas (access to electricity for rural population) No major negative impacts are expected, instead, employment generation associated to biofuels and energy efficiency are the main positive macroeconomic impacts anticipated in this scenario.
24 Thank You!
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