FINANCING THE ENERGY TRANSITION

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1 FINANCING THE ENERGY TRANSITION CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT TRENDS: HISTORY AND PROSPECTS GUY TURNER CHIEF ECONOMIST PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 1

2 CONTENTS 1. Global investment patterns to date 2. UK - historic and future investment 3. Global future investment 4. Financing PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 2

3 GLOBAL Internal Note: Includes NEW all add-ons (Corp INVESTMENT R&D, Gov R&D, SDC and adjustment IN for CLEAN re-inv equity) ENERGY BY SECTOR ($BN) $317bn $262bn $281bn $168bn $195bn $196bn Other Energy smart technologies $117bn Bioenergy $54bn $80bn Wind Solar Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D. Includes digital energy & energy storage asset investment. PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 3

4 NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY REGION Q Q ($BN) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q EMEA AMER ASOC Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate R&D, government R&D, digital energy asset investment and energy storage asset investment (only available annually) PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 4

5 NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY REGION ($BN) North America & Caribbean Europe '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Asia & Oceania '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Middle East & Africa Full year H1 only Central & South America '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 ' '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 ' '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 ' '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Note: Excludes corporate and government R&D PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 5

6 TOP 10 COUNTRIES IN TERMS OF NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY, 2012 ($BN) China 65.0 United States 36.5 Germany 19.8 Japan Italy United Kingdom India South Africa Brazil France Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D. Excludes digital energy & energy storage asset investment. Country is destination (not origin) of flows. PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 6

7 NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY ASSET CLASS Q Q ($BN) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Asset finance* Public markets VC/PE Small distributed capacity Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate R&D, government R&D, digital energy asset investment and energy storage asset investment (only available annually) PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 7

8 CONTENTS 1. Global investment patterns to date 2. UK - historic and future investment 3. Global future investment 4. Financing PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 8

9 NEW Internal Note: INVESTMENT Includes all add-ons (Corp R&D, Gov IN R&D, CLEAN SDC and adjustment ENERGY for re-inv equity) IN THE UK BY SECTOR, ($BN) $12bn $10bn $11bn $10bn Other $5bn $6bn $7bn $5bn Energy smart technologies Bioenergy Wind Solar $1bn Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D. Includes digital energy & energy storage asset investment. PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 9

10 UK RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITY (GW) 45 Historical capacity PV 10 Biomass and Waste - 5 Hydro Wind onshore PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 10

11 UK RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITY (GW) Historical capacity BNEF short-term projections Wind onshore Wind offshore Hydro PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 11

12 UK RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITY (GW) Historical capacity 2020 target = 50% of 2012 installed thermal & nuclear capacity BNEF short-term projections National RE Action Plan Submissions Wind onshore Wind onshore Wind offshore Wind offshore Hydro PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 12

13 UK RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITY (GW) Historical capacity BNEF short-term projections National RE Action Plan Submissions 35 8GW shortfall (20% of target) With no new build other than what is in the pipeline as of today Wind onshore Wind onshore Wind offshore Wind offshore Hydro PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 13

14 EU27 RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITY (GW) Historical capacity BNEF short-term projections National RE Action Plan submissions Other PV 250 PV 200 Wind onshore Wind onshore 50 Hydro Hydro PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 14

15 CONTENTS 1. Global investment patterns to date 2. UK - historic and future investment 3. Global future investment 4. Financing PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 15

16 ANNUAL INVESTMENT IN POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ($BN) NEW NORMAL SCENARIO Marine Solar thermal Small-scale PV Solar PV Offshore wind Wind EfW Biomass Geothermal Hydro Nuclear Oil Gas Coal Note: EfW is energy from waste Small-scale PV includes commercial and residential scale rooftop PV. PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 16

17 GLOBAL POWER GENERATION CAPACITY (GW) 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 Marine Solar thermal Small-scale PV Solar PV Offshore wind Wind 5,000 EfW Biomass 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Geothermal Hydro Nuclear Oil Gas 0 Coal Note: EfW is energy from waste Small-scale PV includes commercial and residential scale rooftop PV. PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 17

18 TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND TWh Mtoe 200, , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Renewable Energy (excl. hydro) Hydro Nuclear Traditional biomass Fossil IEA WEO 2012 PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 18

19 ANNUAL LARGE-SCALE PV INSTALLATIONS BY REGION - NEW NORMAL SCENARIO (GW) RoW MENA Japan Australia Brazil 20 India Europe China USA Note: large scale denotes systems larger than 1MW PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 19

20 CONTENTS 1. Global investment patterns to date 2. UK - historic and future investment 3. Global future investment 4. Financing PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 20

21 RENEWABLE ENERGY ASSET FINANCE INVESTMENT BY SOURCE, 2004 H ($BN) cross Cross-border border 72 unknown Unknown 54 domestic Domestic H Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Volumes show new build asset finance for renewable energy projects only. PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 21

22 CROSS-BORDER RENEWABLE ENERGY ASSET FINANCE INVESTMENT BY FLOW, 2004 H ($BN) 100% 90% 80% 70% X 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% H Investment Investment in the in South the South in 2011 in 2011 surpassed surpassed 25% the of 25% total mark CBI X North/South X North/South investment investment peaked peaked in 2012 in 2012 at 27% at 27% of total with $10.8bn CBI with deployed $10.8bn deployed North/South South/South South/North North/North Note: North is defined as OECD member countries, South is defined as the rest of the world. PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 22

23 THE IMPORTANCE OF COSTS $/MWh Wholesale costs US coal US CCGT EU coal + carbon EU CCGT + Carbon PV cost competitive with retail power in: Germany Australia India Italy PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 23

24 ANNOUNCED ENERGY STORAGE PROJECTS WORLDWIDE (MW AND NUMBER OF PROJECTS) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Capacity (MW) Number of projects PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 24

25 GLOBAL ENERGY STORAGE CAPACITY TO BE COMMISSIONED IN 2013 (MW) Compressed air 1MW Sodium sulphur batteries 1MW Flow batteries Flywheels Not selected Total = 164MW Others Australia 3MW Japan 4.1MW Canada Germany China Lead-based batteries US Lithium-ion batteries 44.8 By technology By country PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 25

26 COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy or whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment. PRESENTATION TITLE, DAY MONTH YEAR 26

27 FINANCING THE ENERGY TRANSITION GUY TURNER, MARKETS Renewable Energy Carbon Markets Energy Smart Technologies Renewable Energy Certificates Carbon Capture & Storage Power Water Nuclear SERVICES Insight: research, analysis & forecasting Industry Intelligence: data & analytics News & Briefing: daily, weekly & monthly Applied Research: custom research & data mining Knowledge Services: Summit, Leadership Forums, Executive Briefings & workshops Subscription-based news, data and analysis to support your decisions in clean energy, power and water and the carbon markets

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