A Slower Global Economy with a Recession Watch in 2019

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1 A Slower Global Economy with a Recession Watch in 2019 Implications for the Semiconductor Outlook Surface Preparation and Cleaning Conference (SPCC) April 3, 2019 Chief Economist, Hilltop Economics, LLC duncan.meldrum@hilltopeconomics.com *A global outlook based on Consensus Economics, Inc. CONSENSUS FORECASTS SPCC April 3,

2 Outline Forecast with key themes: Slower growth forecast from the Consensus Higher uncertainty Rising risk of recession Recession Risk Dashboard Semiconductors: Near term risk Long term strength SPCC April 3,

3 SPCC 2019 Forecast Summary Overview: Now in the mature phase of the business cycle with decelerating growth and a rising risk of recession Healthy but more cautious consumer Investment moderating despite need Low inflation, diverging interest rates, currency unsettled Higher economic policy uncertainty: Domestic fiscal and monetary policy (China, US, EU, Japan) Trade Geopolitics Less-healthy backdrop for semiconductor industry SPCC April 3,

4 % Change MARCH 2019 Consensus: Growth Weakens to Trend in World* Real GDP Growth 2018: 3.0% 2019: 2.7% 2020: 2.7% 5 4 Consensus has lowered 2019 outlook by almost 0.5% since last year s SPCC *World: 85 major economies, Data: World Bank, Hilltop Economics, Consensus Forecasts, Mar SPCC April 3,

5 ~60% of GDP Global Consumer Healthy Unemployment rates are low below equilibrium Wages are stable to rising Inflation is low at or below policy maker targets Oil prices are not a big problem Consumer debt is under control Confidence has slipped off the peaks of 2018 SPCC April 3,

6 Percent Change ~60% of GDP World* Real Consumption % % % : 2.9% TLGR World: 45 Key Countries; Src: World Bank, National Sources, Hilltop Economics, Consensus Forecasts March SPCC April 3,

7 ~25% of GDP Investment Should Be Growing at this Point: Needed to Drive Cycle Higher The largest developed economies are growing ABOVE their potential rate of growth (i.e. above capacity) Investment typically grows more rapidly when potential is reached Revenue growth OK Real GDP growth (volume) now at 2.7% Some inflation (price) on average from ~1% - 2% Revenue now ~4 ½ % Interest rates generally remain low Modest cost pressures in most regions Profitability still positive SPCC April 3,

8 Percent Change ~25% of GDP World* Real Investment Mar % % % : 3.7% TLGR World: 45 Key Countries Src Hist: World Bank, National Sources, Fcst: Hilltop Economics, Consensus Forecasts Mar SPCC April 3,

9 Investment Should Be Growing at this Point: But Forecast to SLOW What s the Problem? Risk aversion is the problem again Economic policy uncertainty volatile and high on a global level Trade wars (shifting international institutional arrangement) US (post-stimulus fiscal policy, post-govt shutdown, monetary policy, immigration) Europe (Brexit, Italy, France, EU-wide e.g. immigration) China stimulus impact, international situations Japan tax increases Geopolitical concerns Forecasts on a downward trajectory Interest rates reflecting the uncertainty SPCC April 3,

10 Recession Watch Dashboard: Cautious (Yellow) Output momentum (Real GDP, Investment, Ind. Production) Employment momentum (Unemployment rates) Consumer confidence measures (US & majors) Equities (recovered & but still a bit volatile) Profits & Small Business Earnings (strong, but off peak) Oil Prices & Inflation (pressure eased) Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (Very high) World Consensus Forecast (weaker each month since April) U.S. Yield Curve (close to inverting) Interest Differentials (US vs EU rising) Recession watch: leading indicators that may help identify turning points that precede a downturn in the next 18 to 24 months Business of Cleans April 1,

11 Index, Mean=100.0 Uncertainty Peaked at Crisis Levels in January 2019 Global Economic Policy Uncertainty 350 Financial Crisis > Source: Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Stev en J. Dav is at w w w.policyuncertainty.com. March 2019 estimated by Hilltop Economics LLC Uncertainty over future economic policy skyrocketed back to levels high enough- in the grey zone on the graph- to dampen investment by the middle of SPCC April 3,

12 <- Low Uncertainty High-> Index Index Index Uncertainty UP Everywhere (Even U.S.) Econom ic Policy Uncertainty: U.S. & Europe Econom ic Policy Uncertainty: Japan 400 Financial Crisis > US Europe Financial Crisis > Source: Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis at Through Mar Source: Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis at Through Mar UK Economic Policy Uncertainty Econom ic Policy Uncertainty: China 1,200 1,000 1,000 Source: Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis at Through Mar Source: Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis at Through Mar SPCC April 3,

13 Percent Change for the Full Year Global Real GDP Forecasts for 2019 Lowered Eleven Months in a Row Month-by-month Real GDP Forecasts From March 2018 to March 2019 SPCC April 3,

14 Percent Yield Curve on Verge of Signaling Recession Uncertainty & fear of recession driving U.S. longer-term rates lower; Consensus (the arrows) too optimistic as of the end of March 6 5 Fed Funds Rate (Policy) 3 Month T-Bill 10 Year T-Bond Shaded area indicates recession SPCC April 3,

15 Percent U.S. Yield Curve Foreshadows Recession Seven (eight?) inversions, seven recessions in the past 50 years YIELD CURVE DAILY: 10 YR Minus 1 YR Treasuries -3-4 Shaded areas indicate recessions SPCC April 3,

16 Percent Different International Interest Rate Trends A risk to financial flows, currencies, and a contributor to uncertainty Month LIBOR - US$ 3 Month LIBOR - Euro 3 Month LIBOR - Japanese Yen SPCC April 3,

17 Summary of Semiconductor Driving Forces in 2019 Demand drivers from the economic outlook weakening Slower investment growth weakens growth in: Servers PCs Industrial applications Moderating consumer growth dampens growth in: Mobile phones PCs Autos Evidence of inventory builds Falling prices for key products & recently expanded capacity Evidence of slowing trade, declining revenue RESULT: Moderate decline in MSI in 2019 LONG-RUN STAYS VERY HEALTHY: AI/5G/ML and continued expansion of the digitalization of the economy SPCC April 3,

18 %CH VS YR AGO (Month and 12MMA) 2019 MSI Demand Outlook Retail Sales at US Electronics & Appliance Stores U.S. Consumer Spending on Tech Goods Weakening Src: Census Bureau, through Feb 2019 Shaded areas official recessions SPCC April 3,

19 Million Units 2019 MSI Demand Outlook Stable PC Outlook, Minimal Growth Estimated Global PC Sales Annual Percent Change % -2.1% -1.0% 0.8% 0.8% Estimated PC Units Forecast April Source: Hilltop Economics Shaded area indicates main period of tablet penetration SPCC April 3,

20 Millions Per Quarter 2019 MSI Demand Outlook Global Smartphones Grow Slowly Gartner IDC Outlook stabilizing around 3% - 4% average annual growth SPCC April 3,

21 %CH VS YR AGO %CH VS YR AGO Investm ent (Left Scale) Server Units (Right Scale) MSI Demand Outlook Servers Likely heading to low single-digit unit growth temporarily with the slipping in investment growth 5G, AI, ML will sustain growth after Server Units: Gartner Press Releases Shaded areas U.S. recessions SPCC April 3,

22 Inventory:Shipments Ratio (Months) Months Inventory Per Shipment (MSI) 2019 MSI Demand Outlook Hints of Inventory Building (Upstream and Downstream) 3.2 US Computers & Peripheral Devices 150 Information and Communications Electronics Equipment Inventory-Shipments Ratio (Indexed) History: US Census Bureau Shaded areas U.S. recessions Src: METI Feb 2019 prelim report (March 29, 2019) 80 IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I Japan (METI) Wafer Data Inventories Divided by Shipments Src: METI, Hilltop Economics, LLC through December SPCC April 3,

23 Million Square Inches Shipped $MM (3MMA) Billion $ 2019 MSI Demand Outlook Lots of Semiconductor Measures Turning Down Semiconductor Equipment Billing North American & Japanese Manufacturers WSTS Revenue 5, ,000 NA Billings Japan Billing Combined Billings WSTS 3MMA WSTS 3,000 2,000-32% from Peak to Most Recent , % from Peak to Most Recent 0 Src: SEMI & Semiconductor Equipment Assoc Japan Wafers From Japanese Manufacturers South Korea semi chip exports vs sample DRAM price mm 200mm 150mm 125mm SRC: METI SPCC April 3,

24 Short-term MSI Demand Outlook Weaker Final Demand Pulls MSI Down in 2019 Semiconductor MSI Outlook 3,400 3,200 March 2019 ESF Forecast SEMI MSI (History to 18Q4) Million Square Inches 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 History: Semi.org Forecasts: Hilltop Economics, LLC Annual Percent Change In MSI % 10.0% 7.9% -1.5% 2.9% SPCC April 3,

25 Million Square Inches Semiconductors beyond the cycle BN 2010 US$ Semiconductors VS. World Real GDP 4,000 3,200 2,400 2,000 1,600 SEMI MSI World Real GDP 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 1,200 50, , Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions ,000 SPCC April 3,

26 MSI PER UNIT REAL GDP Semiconductors beyond the cycle Semiconductor Penetration of the Global Economy A (too) simplistic forecasting tool: the slope equates MSI to ~2 X real GDP growth QTR at annual rates, 12QMA Shaded areas US recessions Penetration: the number of semiconductors (MSI wafers) used to produce a unit of real GDP that is, GDP measured without inflation, a volume concept SPCC April 3,

27 MSI PER UNIT REAL GDP Semiconductors beyond the cycle Semiconductor Penetration of the Global Economy AI / 5G / ADAS Keeps MSI at a long term trend that is ~1½ to 2 times real GDP growth QTR at annual rates, 12QMA Shaded areas US recessions Penetration: the number of semiconductors (MSI wafers) used to produe a unit of real GDP that is, GDP measured without inflation, a volume concept SPCC April 3,

28 SPCC 2019 Forecast Summary: The world economy has moved into a decelerating phase of the business cycle. Consensus expects slightly below-trend growth in key final demand measures that drive semiconductors (investment, consumption). Recession risks rising (economic policy uncertainty). Semiconductors slide in 2019, but surge back to a healthy trend (1.5 to 2 times real GDP growth) once past the down cycle. Growth Rates: Annual % Change World Real GDP Investment Consumption SEMI MSI (1.5) 2.9 SPCC April 3,

29 Chief Economist Hilltop Economics, LLC SPCC April 3,

30 Percent of Labor Forece Jobs Markets Support Consumption 9 8 EU Japan US - Headline Rate Unemployment Rates % Unemp Japan So. Korea Taiwan Germany Eurozone UK US Sources: US NBER Recession Shading, US BLS, OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), Mar 26, SPCC April 3,

31 Consumer Confidence Indexes Are High But off the 2018 peaks, with the exception of China USA (to March 2019) Peak CHINA (to December 18) OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", (Accessed on 3/27/19) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission EUROZONE GREAT BRITAIN JAPAN (to February 2019) OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", (Accessed on 3/27/19) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", (Accessed on 3/27/19) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission SPCC April 3,

32 CPI Inflation Weakens in 2019 Despite tightness in labor markets and closed output gaps CPI % Change China Japan (0.1) South Korea Taiwan Germany France Italy (0.1) UK US Hilltop Economics, Based on Consensus Forecasts, March actual vs. forecast: China: -0.2, Germany: +0.1, US & Japan no error SPCC April 3,

33 $/BBL - Brent Oil Price Oil Prices Source: NBER - Recession dating, EIA, St Louis Federal Reserv e Economic Database Fcst: Hilltop Economics from Consensus Forecasts Mar SPCC April 3,

34 S&P 500 Index Equity Prices Well Above December Lows as of End- March, but Volatility Unsettling 3,200 2,800 2,400 2,000 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300 II III IV I II III IV I II ,600 1, Shaded areas indicate recessions SPCC April 3,

35 Percent of GDP ("Margin") Consensus: Profits Grow in Line with Revenue At Least Through 2020 Before Tax Profit (ZCPROFIT/GDP) After Tax Profit (ZCPAT/GDP) Src: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Hilltop Economics forecast based on Consensus Mar SPCC April 3,

36 Currency Per US$, Indexed 2008M1=100.0 Dollar Strengthened, Trade War an Issue CHN RMB JPN Yen KOR Won TWN NT$ Euro SPCC April 3,

37 Metrics Real GDP: Gross Domestic Product (final real or volume demand for goods and services, in the largest 85 countries measured in Billions of 2010 US$ - that is, with inflation removed) Real consumer spending (for key 45 countries in Consensus Economics) Real business investment (for key 45 countries in Consensus Economics) WHY Real GDP and its final demand components? Semiconductors have become so ubiquitous, used in almost every product and in support of almost every service, that broad final demand measures best explain MSI trends. Million Square Inches (MSI) of silicon wafers shipped to semiconductor manufacturers (Source: SEMI.ORG) WHY MSI? Best volume measure of semiconductors, to relate to the volume of demand as measured by real GDP and other units of products WSTS semiconductor revenue (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics) - $000 sales by major region reported by WSTS.ORG Semiconductor Equipment Billings (~90% of worldwide semiconductor equipment sales) Reported for North America by SEMI.ORG Reported for Japan by SEAJ.ORG SPCC April 3,

38 Semiconductor Data Concerns Disconnect between MSI and WSTS revenue U.S. Government shutdown METI discontinuing monthly wafers (?) MSI quarter-to-quarter distortions due to increases in long-term contracts (?) SPCC April 3,

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