Developing Regional Solutions In Southeast Michigan

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1 Developing Regional Solutions In Southeast Michigan Presentation to Metropolitan Detroit Medical Library Group March 15, 2018

2

3 Membership Map 171 Total Members Including education members: Livingston Educational Service Agency Macomb Community College Macomb Intermediate School District Monroe County Community College Monroe County Intermediate School District Oakland Schools Schoolcraft College Washtenaw Community College Washtenaw Intermediate School District Wayne County Community College District Wayne County Regional Education Service Agency

4 Population History Southeast Michigan, ,000,000 5,000,000 4,181,354 4,736,008 4,682,726 4,590,468 4,833,368 4,704,809 4,000,000 3,344,793 3,000,000 2,613,844 2,382,195 2,000,000 1,467,964 1,000, , ,

5 Population Will Grow Modestly Southeast Michigan, ,400,000 5,200,000 Return to 2001 peak ,104,936 5,000,000 4,800,000 4,600,000 4,400, ,593, ,849, ,699, ,739, ,851,089 4,200,000 4,000,

6 Components of Population Change International Birth Death Migration Domestic

7 Population Change by Component Southeast Michigan, = 1,000 Persons Birth: 54,604 Death: 44,408 Natural Growth: 10,196 Immigration: 14,822 Domestic Migration: -20,186 Net Migration: -5,364 Residuals: -1,073 Total Change: 3,759 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

8 Change of Population Components Annual Average, Southeast Michigan 40, ,000 20,000 10, , = = = = - + = - + = 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Natural increase (births deaths) Domestic Migration International Migration Total Change Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

9 Rate of Natural Change Counties in Michigan, Rate of Natural Change (Births Deaths) (Natural Change per 1,000 People) -8.0 to (Deaths much higher than Births) -1.0 to -7.9 (Deaths higher than Births) -0.9 to +0.9 (Deaths approaching Births) 1.0 to 4.9 (Births higher than Deaths) 5.0 to 7.0 (Births much higher than Deaths)

10 Rate of Net Domestic Migration Counties in Michigan, Rate on Net Domestic Migration (Net Domestic Migration per 1,000 people) -8.0 to (High Net Out-Migration) -3.0 to -7.9 (Moderate Net Out-Migration) 0 to -2.9 (Low Net Out-Migration) 0.1 to 2.9 (Low Net In-Migration) 3.0 to 7.9 (Moderate Net In-Migration) 8.0 to 12.0 (High Net In-Migration)

11 Rate of International Immigration Counties in Michigan, Rate of International Immigration (Immigrants per 1,000 people) Less than to to to 6.9

12 Aging Population As baby boomers entering senior age Age % Age 65+ Baby Boomers Echo Boomers Age % , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 Male 2015 Female Male 2045 Female

13 Rapid Growth of Senior Population Southeast Michigan, ,400,000 1,200,000 Age 65+ 1,160,417 1,000, , , , , ,000 99,688 Age ,

14 Declining School Age Population Age 5-17, Southeast Michigan, ,000, , : 935,000 School Age Population, Ages 5 to 17 yrs 900, , , , : 893, ,000 (-25%) 2045: 730, , : 765, , , : 699, , ,

15 Population Change by Age Group Age under 30: 124,000, or 7% Age 65 and older: +463,000, or +67% -60,000-40,000-20, ,000 40,000 60,000 80, , , ,000

16 School Redeveloped to Senior Housing Starr Elementary School, Royal Oak, MI

17 Declining Prime Working Age Population Age 25-54, Southeast Michigan, ,300,000 2,200, ,176,606 2,100,000 2,000,000 1,900, ,996, ,000 or -15% ,946,415 1,800, ,848,192 1,700,000 1,600,

18 Modest Employment Growth Constrained by Labor Force 3,200,000 3,000,000 2,800, ,844,540 Return to 2000 peak ,846, ,958,724 2,600,000 2,400,000 2,200, ,413, ,490,379 2,000,

19 More People Will Be Working Particularly people of older age groups 70.0% 60.0% 59.5% 61.4% % 45.8% 40.0% 32.8% 30.0% 20.0% 17.2% 10.0% 7.7% 0.0% All age 16+ Age Age 75+

20 Jobs by Major Sector Southeast Michigan, , , , , , ,000 Government 200,000 Retail Trade 100,000 0

21 Higher Productivity with Technology But fewer jobs in some industries

22 Alternative Demographic Forecast 5,200,000 5,100,000 Baseline 5,000,000 4,900,000 4,800,000 Immigration Down 4,700,000 4,600,000 4,500,000 No Immigration 4,400,000 4,300,

23 1,400, Regional Development Forecast Population Trends by Large Area, ,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 0 Detroit Wayne, excluding Detroit Oakland Macomb Washtenaw Livingston St. Clair Monroe

24 Information on 1. Data and Maps Community Profiles Map Gallery 2. Forecast Interactive map 3. Performance Measures 4. Publications Annual population estimates

25 Contact Information Xuan Liu, Ph.D. Manager of Research, Data Analysis (313) Southeast Michigan Council of Governments 1001 Woodward Ave., Suite 1400 Detroit, MI

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