Lamb Market Outlook. ASI New Orleans, TX January 25, David P. Anderson Professor and Extension Economist

Transcription

1 Lamb Market Outlook ASI New Orleans, TX January 25, 2019 David P. Anderson Professor and Extension Economist

2 Overview Usual Suspects Production Demand Prices

3 The Usual Suspects Stocks Imports Weights

4 Mil. Pounds LAMB AND MUTTON IN COLD STORAGE Frozen, End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Avg Data Source: USDA-NASS 12/21/18

5 Mil. Pounds US LAMB IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS I-N-44 12/07/18

6 $ Per Cwt. 600 AUSTRALIA vs U.S. PARTIAL LEG OF LAMB PRICES Fresh, Boneless, Weekly AU US Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

7 $ Per Cwt AUSTRALIA vs. NEW ZEALAND vs. U.S. RACK PRICES Frozen, 20 oz/up, Weekly AU NZ US Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

8 Thou. Head LAMB AND YEARLING DRESSED WEIGHT Federally Inspected, Weekly Data Not Reported During Shutdown JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS S-S-06 01/21/19

9 Production

10 Mil. Head 8 BREEDING EWES 1 YEAR & OLDER January 1, U.S., Annual Data Source: USDA-NASS S-N-04 03/23/18

11 Mil. Pounds 3.50 LAMB AND MUTTON PRODUCTION Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS M-S-20 01/21/19

12 Demand

13 Demand Thoughts Demand Usually Most Difficult to Predict Starting 2019 With: Higher wholesale cut and cutout prices than a year ago Yet, lower to no change in retail prices until late in 2018 And lower live lamb prices Suggests Some Potential Problems

14 Index 120 Domestic U.S. Consumer Sentiment Monthly, Index year 1966 = Data Source: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan 12/21/18

15 Bil. Pounds COMMERCIAL MEAT & POULTRY PRODUCTION By Type of Meat, Annual Beef Pork Lamb & Veal Chicken Turkey Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC

16 $ Per Cwt. 240 FEEDER LAMB PRICES 3-Market Average; CO, TX & SD; Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC S-P-06 01/23/19

17 $ Per Cwt. 310 SLAUGHTER LAMB PRICES National Direct, Hot Carcass, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC S-P-03 01/23/19

18 $ Per Pelt PREMIUM UNSHORN LAMB PELT PRICES FOB, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS S-P-10 01/23/19

19 $ Per Cwt. 430 BOXED LAMB SINGLE LEG PRICES Trotter Off, 5 Day Rolling Average JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS S-P-14 01/23/19

20 $ Per Cwt. 950 BOXED LAMB RACK PRICES Medium, 5 Day Rolling Average JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS S-P-16 01/23/19

21 $ Per Cwt. 395 NATIONAL LAMB CUTOUT VALUE Gross Carcass FOB, 5 Day Rolling Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS S-P-18 01/23/19

22 $ Per Head 70 LIVE TO CUTOUT PRICE SPREAD Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 1/23/2019

23 Cents Per Pound 790 RETAIL ALL LAMB FEATURE PRICE Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS 1/23/2019

24 $ Per Head CUTOUT TO RETAIL (FEATURE) LAMB PRICE SPREAD Monthly 20 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 1/23/2019

25 Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Third Quarter, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

26 Summary Expect Lamb Prices to Climb Closer to Last Couple Years Production near 2018 Questions on demand Large Cold Storage Stocks Imports Large Until Late in Year Likely Volatile Prices Remain

27 Prices for Mkt Feeder Natl. Direct Sltr Lambs I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

28 $ Per Cwt TRADITIONAL vs NON-TRADITIONAL LAMB PRICES lbs Live, Weekly 2018 APR JUL OCT Mkt (CO, SD, TX) Feeder New Holland, PA Slaughter Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

29 FI As A Percent of Commercial Lamb Slaughter