PREVISIONS PUBLICITAIRES MONDIALES

Transcription

1 PREVISIONS PUBLICITAIRES MONDIALES

2 ABOUT MAGNA Leader in advertising market research, since Connected to hundreds of media buyers worldwide. 40 reports a year on net ad sales spend, ad costs, media consumption and ad tech (programmatic). 70 countries, 15+ standardized media categories. Used by 35+ media/tech firms, Bloomberg and Wall Street.

3 AGENDA ABOUT MAGNA GLOBAL AD REVENUE TRENDS FOCUS ON THE US

4 GLOBAL MARKET: $550 BILLION THIS YEAR / Source: MAGNA June 2018 Global Forecast Update

5 AS GROWTH REACCELERATES 6.4% 4.5% 4.0% / Source: MAGNA June 2018 Global Forecast Update

6 .MOSTLY DUE TO CYCLICAL DRIVERS Impact of Incremental Cyclical Spend ($ Billions) % +5.5% % +4.9% 572 Global Growth Excluding Cyclical Spend 5.5% 5.5% 5.2% 4.9% Core Global Spend Incremental Cyclical Spend 6 / Source: MAGNA June 2018 Global Forecast Update

7 LONG TERM: AD REVENUES TO GROW BY +4.3% PER YEAR 6.4% 4.0% 4.9% 3.5% 4.6% / Source: MAGNA June 2018 Global Forecast Update

8 AD SPEND GROWTH ACROSS REGIONS % 6.4% 5.3% 6.3% 6.9% 6.0% 7.5% 4.0% 4.0% 2.1% Global EMEA N. America APAC LATAM 8 / Source: MAGNA June 2018 Global Forecast Update

9 MEDIA MIX: DIGITAL AD SALES REACH HALF OF TOTAL BUDGETS BY % 6% 6% 5% 6% 4% 37% 42% 45% 49% 52% 55% 57% Print OOH Radio Internet Television 37% 35% 34% 32% 31% 29% 28% / Source: MAGNA June 2018 Global Forecast Update

10 2018 FORECAST +5.0% +6.9% +5.6% W. Europe +4.1% +6.1% +2.5% +2.9% +5.5% +2.6% +17.3% +12.5% +12.0% +10.3% +2.8% +12.6% YOY growth including Cyclical Events Less than 0% +3.0% 0% to 5% 5% to 10% Greater than 10% GLOBAL: +6.4% 1 country < 0% 69 countries >0% 10 / Source: MAGNA June 2018 Global Forecast Update

11 2019 FORECAST +3.5% +2.3% +5.1% W. Europe +2.8% +3.3% +2.4% +2.3% +4.7% +0.8% +17.5% +13.2% +6.2% +8.0% +2.0% +8.8% YOY growth including Cyclical Events Less than 0% +3.7% 0% to 5% 5% to 10% Greater than 10% GLOBAL: +4.0% 0 countries < 0% 70 countries >0% 11 / Source: MAGNA June 2018 Global Forecast Update

12 2019 Growth (%) TOP 10 MARKETS 16% 14% 12% India 10% 8% China Brazil 6% UK Australia Canada 4% Germany 2% France US Japan 0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 12 / Source: MAGNA June 2018 Global Forecast Update 2018 Growth (%)

13 2018 ADVERTISING REVENUES: DIGITAL +16%, OFFLINE FLAT 17.8% 15.5% -0.2% 4.5% 6.4% -3.3% Offline Media Digital Total / Source: MAGNA June 2018 Global Forecast Update

14 TV AND RADIO STAGNATING, PRINT IN DECLINE 15.5% 12.3% 3.0% Newspapers Magazines Radio 3.4% 2.7% 6.4% 4.0% -1.8% -1.7% -1.6% Grand Total Television Digital -9.3% -10.4% -11.1% -12.2% Out of Home / Source: MAGNA June 2018 Global Forecast Update Note: TV, print and radio advertising revenues exclude the online or mobile ad sales generated TV and radio broadcasters and publishers.

15 SEARCH, SOCIAL, AND VIDEO DRIVE DIGITAL AD SPEND 27% 31% 30% % 22% 22% 14% 12% 15% 12% Display -3% -5% DIGITAL TOTAL Search Video Social Mobile 15 / Source: MAGNA June 2018 Global Forecast Update

16 LONG-TERM TREND BY FORMAT (CAGR ) 18% 17% 17% 13% 10% 4% 2% All Media 0% -2% -7% -10% -13% 16 / Source: MAGNA June 2018 Global Forecast Update; CAGR averages growth rates between (4 years of growth)

17 300 DIGITAL VIDEO: 26% OF VIDEO ADVERTISING BY % Linear Television Digital Video (Excluding Social) 17 / Source: MAGNA December 2017 Global Forecast Update

18 AGENDA ABOUT MAGNA GLOBAL AD REVENUE TRENDS FOCUS ON THE US

19 All-Media NAR growth (excl. DM, CE) US AD MARKET: STRONG FIRST HALF 7.5% % 6.4% 5.1% 4.8% 5.3% 6.0% 6.5% 5.8% 4.4% 4.1% 3.4% 19 / 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Source: MAGNA (Sept 2018)

20 NAR growth (excl. DM, CE) US AD MARKET: +6.9% THIS YEAR (+5.2% EXCL. CYCLICAL) 16% Television Local TV (incl. CE) 9% 12% 1% 3% 2% 5% 4% -1% -1% National TV (excl. CE) -4% -5% Local TV (excl. CE) -3% National TV (incl. CE) -5% -5% All Media -16% -17% -18% 20 / Source: MAGNA (Sept 2018)

21 NAR Growth (excl. DM, CE) LONG TERM FORECAST: +3% TO +4% PER YEAR IN NEXT 5 YEARS 6.2% 5.4% 5.6% 4.9% 5.2% 4.0% 3.2% 3.1% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 1.8% / Source: MAGNA (Sept 2018)

22 Ratings Growth/Decline (yoy) RATINGS DECLINE CONTINUE 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18-6% -10% -10% -9% -9% -10% -10% -8% -12% -11% -8% -11% 22 / -18% Source: Nielsen (A 18-49, incl. sports) Broadcast Cable Spanish -19% -16% National TV ratings declines are now routinely in double-digits. English-speaking b cast networks did a little better in 1Q, mostly due to winter Olympics.

23 ADVANCED TV ADVERTISING REACHING SCALE ADRESSABLE Global Advertising Forecast Spring 2018 Update OTT 52 million households (40%) Ad Campaigns: $800m (+25%) Ad Campaigns: $2bn (+30%) 23 / Source: MAGNA / Public Information

24 2018 NAR Growth (excl. CE) DIGITAL AD SALES ARE NOT OFFSETTING THE DECLINE OF LINEAR 12.0% 7.0% 4.7% -0.9% -0.4% -4.7% -3.2% -10.4% -17.2% 24 / Print Digital Total Bcast Digital Total Linear Digital* Total PUBLISHING AUDIO NATIONAL TV * Hulu and Full Episode Players Source: MAGNA (Sept 2018), *Includes only FEPs & Hulu

25 SUMMARY 2018: +6.4% + Excl. cyclical: +5.5%. Strongest growth since A $550 billion market (all-time high) + Digital +16%, Offline -0.2% + TV +3% + US +6.4%. Digital reaches 50%. Mobile reaches 60% of digital AGENDA 2019: +4.0% + Excl. CE: +4.9% Long Term ( ) + All-media CAGR +4.3%. Free linear TV CAGR -0.8%. + Digital market share to reach 50% in 2020.

26 QUESTIONS?