Economic Update and Outlook

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1 Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter November 15, 2012 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union

2 Outline: Global, U.S., and Canadian economic conditions Canada economic and interest rate forecasts Metro Vancouver economic conditions and trends Metro Vancouver economic and housing forecasts

3 Manufacturing slowdown eases in October, but activity still contracting Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Balance of opinion (%) 30 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: JP Morgan, Markit. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct-12

4 Europe s economy in recession Euro Area Economic Growth Per cent change at annual rate in real GDP Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Source: Eurostat. Latest: Q2-12

5 Europe s contraction continued in Q = Euro Area Industrial Production, Manufacturing Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: ECB. Note: Seasonally and working day adjusted. Latest: Sep-12

6 China's economic growth slows to soft landing China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Balance of opinion (%) Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: China NBS. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct-12

7 Low to moderate growth since 2010 Per cent change at annual rate in real GDP U.S. Economic Growth, Quarterly Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Latest : Q3-12

8 Modest job growth, employment well below pre-recession level U.S. Payroll Employment, Total and Monthly Change Persons - millions Change (R) Total (L) Persons - thousands Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: U.S. BLS. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct

9 Key consumer spending sectors reviving 16 U.S. New Vehicle Sales Units - millions Units - millions 1.2 U.S. Housing Starts Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Source: U.S. BEA. Note: Seasonally adjusted at annual rate. Latest: Sep-12

10 U.S. home sales no longer declining Units - millions Source: NAR. Annually Monthly Units millions, saar Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Latest: Sep-12

11 U.S. home prices at cycle bottom Dollars - thousands Annually Source: NAR. Note: Median sale price. Dollars thousands Monthly Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Latest: Sep-12

12 No recession likely in next three to six months 1992= U.S. Leading Economic Index, Weekly Jan-11 Apr-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Source: ECRI. Latest: Nov. 2, 2012.

13 Debt approaches ceiling limit in early 2013 Dollars - trillions 17 Debt ceiling = $ trillion 16 U.S. Treasury Debt Outstanding Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Source: U.S. Treasury, C1CU. Note: At month end. Latest: Oct-12

14 U.S. fiscal cliff impact - calendar 2013 Fiscal policy $ B % of GDP Bush-era tax cut (below $250k), EITC, CTC, AOTC Payroll tax holiday Alternative Minimum Tax patch Spending cuts (sequestration) Bush-era tax cut (above $250k), cap gains, etc Emergency unemployment insurance Other - Affordable Care Act, Medicare, etc Total Source: Moody s Analytics

15 No recession expected in 2013; moderate growth most likely 6 U.S. Economic Growth, Quarterly Per cent change at annual rate in real GDP Actual High Median Low Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Source: U.S. BEA, WSJ Oct Survey. Latest actual: Q3-12. Forecast: Q4-12 to Q4-13

16 Cyclical upturn in U.S. growth expected in 2014 U.S. Economic Growth, Actual and Forecast Per cent change in real GDP 6 Actual IMF Forecast Consensus Source: IMF July 2012, Consensus October Latest actual: Forecast:

17 Moderate growth in most recent quarters 9 6 Canada Economic Growth, Quarterly Per cent change at annual rate in real GDP GDP FDD Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Source: Statistics Canada. Latest: Q2-12

18 Canada s growth slowed in third quarter Industry GDP Canada, Monthly Billions of chained 2002 dollars Per cent change at annual rate 1, , ,240 1,200 1,160 GDP (L) % change (R) ,120 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12-6 Source: Statistics Canada. Note: Seasonally adjusted at annual rate. Latest: Aug-12

19 No job growth in October 2012 Canada Employment, Total and Monthly Change Persons- millions Persons - thousands Change (R) Employment (L) Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan Source: Statistics Canada. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct-12

20 Recent growth trend to continue; central bank more optimistic in near term Canada Economic Growth, Quarterly Per cent change at annual rate in real GDP Actual -6 BoC -9 Consensus C1 Economics -12 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Source: Statistics Canada. Latest actual: Q2-12. Forecast: Q3-12 to Q4-14

21 Central bank sees output gap closing end of 2013 Canada s Output Gap, Actual and Forecast Per cent of potential GDP 3 2 Actual Forecast Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Source: Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report - October Latest actual Q3-12

22 Market expects no central bank rate change until Sept Per cent month Bankers Acceptance Futures Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Source: Montreal Exchange. Note: As of Nov. 14, 2012

23 Low interest rates ahead, first BoC rate increase early 2014 Per cent Interest Rate Forecasts, Quarterly y mortgage Prime 5y GIC Target 1 0 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Source: Bank of Canada, C1CU. Note: Averages. Latest actual: Q3-12

24 Growth upturn expected in Per cent change in real GDP Canada Annual Economic Growth Actual IMF C1 Economics Source: Statistics Canada, IMF July Latest actual: Forecast:

25 Interest rates rise gradually in 2014, near normal levels in 2017 Per cent Canada Interest Rate Forecast Long-term bond 3-mo. T-bill Source: Bank of Canada, C1 Economics. Note: Annual average. Latest actual: 2011.

26 Population growth hovers around 1% Per cent change at annual rate 2.0 B.C. Population Growth, Quarterly Q1-04 Q1-06 Q1-08 Q1-10 Q1-12 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Latest: Q2-12

27 Thousands Net interprovincial remains negative Persons - thousands 16 B.C. Net Migration by Type, Quarterly Net international Net interprovincial 0-4 Q1-04 Q1-06 Q1-08 Q1-10 Q1-12 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Note: seasonally adjusted. Latest: Q2-12

28 Temporary decline in Metro population growth Per cent 3.0 Metro Vancouver Population Growth, Annually /97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Note: as of July 1. Latest: 2011

29 International dives on fewer NPRs Metro Vancouver Population Growth Components Persons - thousands Net International Net natural Net Interprovincial Net intraprovincial /97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Note: As of July 1. Latest are preliminary.

30 No job growth since May 2012 Metro Vancouver Employment, Total and Monthly Change Persons- millions Persons - thousands Change (R) 40 Employment (L) Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan Source: Statistics Canada. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct-12

31 Metro employment rises in most years Metro Vancouver Employment, Total and Yearly Change Persons - millions Per cent % Change (R) Employment (L) Source: Statistics Canada. Latest: Year-to-date Oct-12

32 Sluggish growth since 2008 Persons - thousands Metro Vancouver Office Employment Proxy Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Latest: 2012 to Oct.

33 Down last two years 210 Metro Vancouver Retail and Wholesale Trade Employment Persons - thousands Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Latest: 2012 to Oct.

34 Little growth since 2010 rebound Number of businesses 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 Metro Vancouver Business Incorporations 10, Source: B.C. Ministry of Finance. Latest: 12 months ending Sep.

35 Metro Vancouver retail sales up about 4% this year, X-Auto 3% Dollar - billions Total Retail Sales Sales X-Autos and related Dollars - billions Source: Statistics Canada. Latest: 12 months ending Aug-12

36 Private non-residential building construction turning up in Metro Vancouver Dollar - millions Commercial Q1-08 Q1-10 Q1-12 Dollars - millions Industrial 70 Current $ 2007 $ Q1-08 Q1-10 Q1-12 Source: Statistics Canada. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Q3-12

37 Metro Vancouver commercial investment up sharply Commercial Building Permits Dollars - millions 300 Actual Trend Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Industrial Building Permits Dollars - millions Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Latest: Sep-12

38 No decline in housing sales past two months Units - thousands 6 MLS Residential Sales, Lower Mainland Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: CREA, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct-12

39 Supply at high level and rising Units - thousands MLS Residential Active Listings, Lower Mainland Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: CREA, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct-12

40 Market is oversupplied, downward pressure on prices in near term Per cent 35 Sales-to-active Listings Ratio, Lower Mainland Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: CREA, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct-12

41 Prices sliding lower, average price misleading Home Price Index and Average Sale Price, Lower Mainland Jan. 2005=100 Dollars - thousands HPI (L) Ave. Price (R) Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan Source: CREA, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct-12

42 Housing starts beginning to turn down Units - thousands 3.0 Housing Starts, Metro Vancouver Seas. Adj. Trend Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: CMHC, C1CU. Latest: Oct-12

43 Metro Vancouver Economic Outlook Indicator f 2013f 2014f Employment, % change Unemployment rate, % Population, % change CPI, % change Retail sales, % change Commercial permits, % chg Industrial permits, % change Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU, forecast.

44 Metro Vancouver Housing Outlook Indicator f 2013f 2014f Housing sales, units 47,663 39,400 41,300 46,200 % change HPI, % change Average sale price, $ 694, , , ,000 % change Housing starts, units 17,867 19,300 16,900 18,400 % change Rental vacancy rate*, % Source: CREA, CMHC, C1CU forecast.

45 Thank you

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