U.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "U.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas"

Transcription

1 U.S. Economic Activity Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2019

2 Contents 1 Economic Activity 2 Wages and Prices 3 Financial Activity

3 Economic Activity

4 Economic Activity Index 160 Consumer Confidence and Sentiment Confidence (Index = 100 in 1985) Date Last Modified: 3/26/19 Last Data Point: March = Sentiment (Index = 100 in 1964): Date Last Modified: 4/12/19 Last Data Point: April = 96.9 NOTE: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. SOURCES: The Conference Board; Survey of Consumers; Survey Research Center; U. of Michigan.

5 Economic Activity Initial Claims for Unemployment and Unemployment Rate 4 Week MA: Thousands Percent Unemployment Initial Claims - 4 Week MA: (Left Side) Date Last Modified: 4/11/19 Last Data Point: 4/6/19 = 207 NOTE: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Department of Labor. Unemployment Rate: (Right Side) Date Last Modified: 4/5/19 Last Data Point: March = 3.8

6 Economic Activity New Orders for Durable Goods Billions of Dollars Durable Goods Date Last Modified: 4/8/19 Last Data Point: February = 250 NOTE: Grey shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. SOURCE: Census Bureau. Excl. Transportation: Date Last Modified: 4/8/19 Last Data Point: February = 164

7 Economic Activity Thousands of Jobs 600 Change in Nonfarm Employment Change in Nonfarm Employment Date Last Modified: 4/5/19 Last Data Point: March = Year Average SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Author's calculations.

8 Economic Activity Index 70 ISM Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing ISM Nonmanufacturing Date Last Modified: 4/3/19 Last Data Point: March = 56.1 ISM Manufacturing Date Last Modified: 4/1/19 Last Data Point: March = 55.3 NOTES: Grey shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. Measurements above 50 indicate expanding activity; measurements below 50 indicate falling activity. SOURCE: Institute for Supply Management.

9 Economic Activity Index, March 1973 = Real Value of the Dollar Exchange Value of the US $ Date Last Modified: 4/1/19 Last Data Point: March = NOTES: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. *Euro Area, Canada, Japan, UK, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board. US $ vs. Major Currencies* Date Last Modified: 4/1/19 Last Data Point: March =

10 Economic Activity 1-month % change 4 Retail Sales Retail Sales Date Last Modified: 4/1/19 Last Data Point: February = Year Average SOURCES: Census Bureau; Author's calculations.

11 Economic Activity 1 month % change 1.0 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Real PCE Date Last Modified: 3/29/19 Last Data Point: January =.12 3 Year Average SOURCES: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Author's calculations.

12 Economic Activity Thousands 2,500 Housing Starts and Permits 2,000 1,500 1, Housing Starts Date Last Modified: 3/26/19 Last Data Point: February = 1162 NOTE: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. SOURCE: Census Bureau. Permits Date Last Modified: 3/29/19 Last Data Point: February = 1291

13 Economic Activity 1 quarter % change annualized 6 Real GDP Real GDP Date Last Modified: 3/28/19 Last Data Point: 2018 Q4 = Year Average SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

14 Economic Activity 1 month % change 2 Industrial Production Industrial Production Date Last Modified: 3/27/19 Last Data Point: February = 0 3 Year Average SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board.

15 Wages and Prices

16 Wages and Prices 1 month % change 1.0 Core Producer Price Index Core PPI Date Last Modified: 4/11/19 Last Data Point: March =.1 3 Year Average SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

17 Wages and Prices 1 month % change 4 Producer Price Index PPI Date Last Modified: 4/11/19 Last Data Point: March = Year Average SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

18 Wages and Prices Headline and Core Consumer Price Index 12-month % change Headline CPI Date Last Modified: 4/10/19 Last Data Point: March = 1.9 NOTE: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Core CPI Date Last Modified: 4/10/19 Last Data Point: March = 2

19 Wages and Prices 1 month % change 0.6 Average Hourly Earnings Average Hourly Earnings Date Last Modified: 4/5/19 Last Data Point: March =.26 3 Year Average SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

20 Wages and Prices 1967 = 100, End of Period 1,200 Commodity Prices 1, KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Metals Date Last Modified: 3/31/19 Last Data Point: March = 896 NOTE: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. KR-CRB stands for Knight-Ridder Commodity Research Bureau. SOURCE: Commodity Research Bureau. KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Raw Materials Date Last Modified: 3/31/19 Last Data Point: March = 495

21 Wages and Prices 12-month % change 5 PCE Price Index Headline PCE Date Last Modified: 3/29/19 Last Data Point: January = 1.4 NOTES: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. Dashed line indicates Fed target inflation rate of 2 percent. SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Core PCE Date Last Modified: 3/29/19 Last Data Point: January = 1.8 Trimmed Mean PCE Date Last Modified: 3/29/19 Last Data Point: January = 1.8

22 Wages and Prices 1 quarter % change 1.0 Employment Cost Index Employment Cost Index Date Last Modified: 1/31/19 Last Data Point: 2018 Q4 =.7 3 Year Average SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

23 Financial Activity

24 Financial Activity Percent Real Federal Funds Rate -6 Target Fed Funds Rate less U. Michigan Expected Inflation Date Last Modified: 4/12/19 Last Data Point: April = -.13 Target Fed Funds Rate less SPF Expected Inflation Date Last Modified: 11/13/18 Last Data Point: =.025 SOURCES: Federal Reserve Board; FRB Philadelphia; Survey of Consumers; Survey Research Center; U. of Michigan.

25 Financial Activity Short-Term Interest Rates Percent SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board. 3-Month LIBOR Date Last Modified: 4/14/19 Last Data Point: 4/12/19 = 2.6 Discount Window Primary Credit Rate Date Last Modified: 4/12/19 Last Data Point: 4/11/19 = 3 3-Month T-Bill Rate Date Last Modified: 4/12/19 Last Data Point: 4/12/19 = 2.44 Target Fed Fund Rate Date Last Modified: 4/12/19 Last Data Point: 4/12/19 = 2.375

26 Financial Activity Percent 7 Long-Term Interest Rates SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board. Mortgage Rate Date Last Modified: Week of 4/11/19 Last Data Point: 4/11/19 = year T-Bond Date Last Modified: Week of 4/8/19 Last Data Point: 4/5/19 = 2.5

U.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

U.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas U.S. Economic Activity Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2019 Contents 1 Economic Activity 2 Wages and Prices 3 Financial Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity Index 160 Consumer Confidence and Sentiment

More information

U.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

U.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas U.S. Economic Activity Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2019 Contents 1 Economic Activity 2 Wages and Prices 3 Financial Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity New Orders for Durable Goods Billions

More information

The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum

The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Chief Economist Monetary Policy Analytics October 5, 2017 What s Driving the Global

More information

Alternative Measures of Economic Activity. Jan J. J. Groen, Officer Research and Statistics Group

Alternative Measures of Economic Activity. Jan J. J. Groen, Officer Research and Statistics Group Alternative Measures of Economic Activity Jan J. J. Groen, Officer Research and Statistics Group High School Fed Challenge Student Orientation: February 1 and 2, 217 Outline Alternative indicators: data

More information

Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States?

Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist Dale Orr Canadian Macroeconomic Services Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.

More information

Charting a Path to Lift Off? Understanding the Shifting Economic Winds

Charting a Path to Lift Off? Understanding the Shifting Economic Winds Charting a Path to Lift Off? Understanding the Shifting Economic Winds Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Assistant Vice President and Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Government Finance Officers Arlington,

More information

U.S. Economy in a Snapshot

U.S. Economy in a Snapshot U.S. Economy in a Snapshot Economic Press Briefing: May 19, 2016 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or

More information

Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack

Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum Canada leading the pack Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com September 2017 Brighter global outlook gains traction

More information

MAINTAINING MOMENTUM:

MAINTAINING MOMENTUM: MAINTAINING MOMENTUM: 2018 National Economic Update September 12, 2018 noun mo men tum \ mō-ˈmen-təm, mə- \ 1 b : the strength or force that allows something to continue or to grow stronger or faster as

More information

More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different?

More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different? More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different? C2ER Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Chief Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations June 14, 2017 Real GDP

More information

The ABA Advantage: Economic Issues Update & ABA Resources

The ABA Advantage: Economic Issues Update & ABA Resources The ABA Advantage: Economic Issues Update & ABA Resources aba.com 1-800-BANKERS Meet the team Jim Chessen Chief Economist Curtis Dubay Senior Economist Brittany Kleinpaste Vice President of Economic Policy

More information

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management)

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management) The Economic Roller Coaster: Where Have We Been? And Where Are We Going? Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Senior Economist and Director of Economic Outreach Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Summit Dallas

More information

President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economics

President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economics The U.S. Economic Outlook Chartspresented by WilliamC Dudley Charts presented by William C. Dudley President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H.

More information

The Fed and the Economic Outlook

The Fed and the Economic Outlook The Fed and the Economic Outlook Mark L. J. Wright Research Director Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis March 28, 2018 Disclaimer The views expressed are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal

More information

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real

More information

The U.S. Economic Outlook

The U.S. Economic Outlook The U.S. Economic Outlook Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist, IHS Global Insight FTA Revenue Estimation & Tax Research Conference Charleston, West Virginia October 17, 2011 What Has Happened to the Recovery?

More information

RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins

RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins CICA/RBC Q4 2011 Business Monitor Economic Results Overview Business and Economic Optimism Begin to Stablize 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % National Optimism

More information

National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business

National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business October 24, 2018 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute

More information

The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia Economic Outlook Survey Results

The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia Economic Outlook Survey Results The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia Economic Outlook Survey Results January 19, 2018 Elif Sen Senior Economic Analyst FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA * The views expressed today are my

More information

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013 Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends September 10, 2013 The Freight Economy Washington continues to be a headwind on economic

More information

U.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013

U.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 U.S. Overview Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 Uneven global economic recovery Annual real GDP growth projections (%) Projections 2013 2014 World 3.1 3.1 3.8 United States 2.2 1.7 2.7 Euro Area

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview Intermountain Credit Education League May 10, 2018 Dow Tops 26,000 Up 48% Since 2016 Election Jan 26, 2018 26,616 Oct 30, 2016 17,888 Source: Wall Street Journal Dow Around

More information

Muhlenkamp & Company. Webinar December 1, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President

Muhlenkamp & Company. Webinar December 1, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company Webinar December 1, 2016 Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management

More information

The United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies. Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight

The United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies. Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight The United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight Subdued Recovery: Tailwinds Battling Headwinds The U.S. Recovery: Tailwinds More sectors

More information

ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee

ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee Commercial Real Estate Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly January 16, 2019 Rob Strand Senior Economist American Bankers Association aba.com 1-800-BANKERS

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview Kenworth National Dealers Conference November 8, 2018 1 National Economic Conditions 2 Volatility Returns to the Stock Market 27,000 Dow Jones Industrial Average October 10,

More information

The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services

The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services Growth Is Cooling; But a Soft Landing Is Likely (Real GDP, annualized rate of growth)

More information

Economic Overview. Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017

Economic Overview. Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017 Economic Overview Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017 TTX Overview TTX functions as the industry s railcar cooperative, operating under pooling authority granted by the Surface Transportation

More information

2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End?

2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End? 2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End? Advantage Bank Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations November 15 th, 2018

More information

2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy

2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy 2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah Bankruptcy Lawyers Forum March 20, 2018 National Economic Conditions When Good News is Bad News Is Good News?? Dow Tops 26,000 Up 44% Since 2016 Election Source: Wall

More information

ECONOMIC CALENDAR 2010

ECONOMIC CALENDAR 2010 J.P. Morgan ECONOMIC CALENDAR 2010 Release dates for US economic indicators and Treasury auctions J.P. Morgan ECONOMIC CALENDAR 2010 Release dates for US economic indicators and Treasury auctions This

More information

Economy On The Rebound

Economy On The Rebound Economy On The Rebound Robert Johnson Associate Director of Economic Analysis November 17, 2009 robert.johnson@morningstar.com (312) 696-6103 2009, Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Executive

More information

Larry Kessler, Ph.D. Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research University of Tennessee

Larry Kessler, Ph.D. Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research University of Tennessee Larry Kessler, Ph.D. Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research University of Tennessee The U.S. economy has now enjoyed 7 years of economic growth since the Great Recession Real GDP grew by 1.2% in

More information

Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond

Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Wednesday, April 28, 2010; 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator: Maria Bartiromo, Anchor, CNBC's Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo Speakers: Nick Calamos, President

More information

Current Hawaii Economic Conditions. Eugene Tian

Current Hawaii Economic Conditions. Eugene Tian Current Hawaii Economic Conditions Eugene Tian Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism At the PATA/TTRA 2016 Annual Outlook & Economic Forecast Forum February 3, 2016 Positive Signs in the

More information

Economic Growth in the Trump Economy

Economic Growth in the Trump Economy Economic Growth in the Trump Economy Presented to State Data Center Conference William F. Fox, Director November 18, 2016 GDP Grows, Though Slowly 10.0 8.0 Percentage Change, Previous Qtr, SAAR 6.0 4.0

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview Veteran Owned Business Conference May 11, 2018 Dow Tops 26,000 Up 48% Since 2016 Election Jan 26, 2018 26,616 Oct 30, 2016 17,888 Source: Wall Street Journal Dow Around Correction

More information

How Much Wind Is in the Sails?

How Much Wind Is in the Sails? How Much Wind Is in the Sails? Erie Chamber of Commerce Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations September 20, 2017 Real GDP Growth

More information

East Bay Financial Planners Association Conference

East Bay Financial Planners Association Conference East Bay Financial Planners Association Conference Is The New Normal Here to Stay? January 10, 2018 Rich Taylor Vice President Client Portfolio Manager Percent Change (%) Subpar Economic Growth Real GDP

More information

The Auction Market In 2015 & 2016 Review & Forecast. Dr. Ira Silver NAAA Economist

The Auction Market In 2015 & 2016 Review & Forecast. Dr. Ira Silver NAAA Economist The Auction Market In 2015 & 2016 Review & Forecast Dr. Ira Silver NAAA Economist silver@naaa.com Agenda Economic conditions Economic outlook Light vehicle sales Light vehicle sales outlook NAAA 2015 Annual

More information

11 th Annual Oregon Economic Forum!

11 th Annual Oregon Economic Forum! 11 th Annual Oregon Economic Forum! (almost) Beyond! Macroeconomics Portland, OR! October 16, 2014! Expansion Continues! Five Years and More!! Recession Indicators Nonfarm Payrolls Real Personal Income

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview West Point Economic Summit. March 30, 2017

Zions Bank Economic Overview West Point Economic Summit. March 30, 2017 Zions Bank Economic Overview West Point Economic Summit March 30, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow 20,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source: Wall Street

More information

Big Changes, Unknown Impacts

Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Boulder Economic Forecast Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January 17, 2018 Real GDP Growth

More information

10 County Conference. Richard Wobbekind. Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business

10 County Conference. Richard Wobbekind. Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business 10 County Conference Richard Wobbekind Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business Hmm... (http://myfallsemester.blogspot.com) Real GDP Growth Percent

More information

Real Estate: Investing for the Future. Sponsored By:

Real Estate: Investing for the Future. Sponsored By: Real Estate: Investing for the Future Sponsored By: Percent Change, Year Ago 6 5 4 3 2 1 Real GDP Growth United States, 2000 Prices 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 U.S. Employment

More information

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half Full

More information

The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch January 2017

The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch January 2017 The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch January 2017 Image from http://peoplesguidetohouston.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/

More information

OPENING KEYNOTE SPEAKER

OPENING KEYNOTE SPEAKER NIT LEAGUE TRANSPORTATION SUMMIT OPENING KEYNOTE SPEAKER Derek J. Leathers President and CEO Werner Enterprises Founded in 1956; grown from one-truck operation to a $2 billion company Among five largest

More information

From Recession to Recovery

From Recession to Recovery From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator Michael Klowden, President and CEO, Milken Institute Speakers Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Pacific

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah Government Finance Officers Assoc. April 21, 2017

Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah Government Finance Officers Assoc. April 21, 2017 Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah Government Finance Officers Assoc. April 21, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow 20,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source:

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview Logan Rotary Club. March 16, 2017

Zions Bank Economic Overview Logan Rotary Club. March 16, 2017 Zions Bank Economic Overview Logan Rotary Club March 16, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow 20,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source: Wall Street Journal

More information

Muhlenkamp & Company. Webcast August 30, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President

Muhlenkamp & Company. Webcast August 30, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company Webcast August 30, 2018 Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management

More information

Economic Recovery Has Stalled, Recession in the Cards by Year End

Economic Recovery Has Stalled, Recession in the Cards by Year End Economic Indicators to Watch for Signs of Recovery Economic Recovery Has Stalled, Recession in the Cards by Year End New York, NY Monday, June 27, 2011 Richard Yamarone Author of The Trader s Guide to

More information

ORLANDO MSA MARKET OVERVIEW LAST UPDATED: MAY 2018

ORLANDO MSA MARKET OVERVIEW LAST UPDATED: MAY 2018 ORLANDO MSA MARKET OVERVIEW LAST UPDATED: MAY 2018 Orlando MSA Market Overview Labor Market Payroll Employment Commercial Real Estate Residential Real Estate Consumer Spending Visitor Industry Labor Market

More information

Real gross domestic growth

Real gross domestic growth Real gross domestic growth United States, 2000 prices Compound annual growth rate 10 5 0-5 -10 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 Sources: BEA, Global Insight. Consumer sentiment University of Michigan,

More information

Economic Forecast to Professional Republican Women Association. January 5, 2017

Economic Forecast to Professional Republican Women Association. January 5, 2017 Economic Forecast to Professional Republican Women Association January 5, 2017 Economic Headwinds National and international uncertainty Continued low energy prices Depressed business investment Unstable

More information

As Good as it Gets. The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International

As Good as it Gets. The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International As Good as it Gets The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International #NMHCstudent @ApartmentWire Ten Years After: A Full if Imperfect

More information

What s Ahead for The Colorado Economy?

What s Ahead for The Colorado Economy? What s Ahead for The Colorado Economy? Colorado Counties Inc. Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations November 28, 2017 Real GDP

More information

Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook

Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook 2016-17 Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Sr. VP/Chief Economist, LAEDC February 17, 2016 Outline U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy

More information

Your Texas Economy. Current through: Tuesday, Nov 20, 2018

Your Texas Economy. Current through: Tuesday, Nov 20, 2018 Your Texas Economy Current through: Tuesday, Nov 20, 2018 Overview of Texas Economy The Texas economy is growing robustly in 2018 2018 job growth through October is 2.9 percent annualized compared to 2.1

More information

Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook

Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs 2019 Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook 1/10/2019 2 U.S. ECONOMY 1/10/2019 3 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview WIB Education Summit September 19, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow Breaks 22,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source: Federal

More information

A comment on recent events, and...

A comment on recent events, and... A comment on recent events, and... where we are in the current economic cycle November 15, 2016 Mark Schniepp Director Likely Trump Policies $4 to $5 Trillion in tax cuts over 10 years to corporations,

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview Cache Valley Home Builders Association. April 12, 2017

Zions Bank Economic Overview Cache Valley Home Builders Association. April 12, 2017 Zions Bank Economic Overview Cache Valley Home Builders Association April 12, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow 20,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source:

More information

Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed

Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed March 3, 2016 Riverside, Iowa David Oppedahl Senior Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org Federal Reserve System Twelve District

More information

Outlook 2008/09 Life In the Aftermath of the Great Global Credit Crisis. May 8 th, Presented by:

Outlook 2008/09 Life In the Aftermath of the Great Global Credit Crisis. May 8 th, Presented by: Outlook 2008/09 Life In the Aftermath of the Great Global Credit Crisis May 8 th, 2008 Presented by: Patricia Croft, Vice President & Chief Economist Phillips, Hager & North Investment Management Limited

More information

U.S. and Colorado Economic Outlook National Association of Industrial and Office Parks. Business Research Division Leeds School of Business

U.S. and Colorado Economic Outlook National Association of Industrial and Office Parks. Business Research Division Leeds School of Business U.S. and Colorado Economic Outlook National Association of Industrial and Office Parks Presented by the Business Research Division Leeds School of Business University of Colorado at Boulder U.S. Economic

More information

Canada s economy on track for a solid 2018 although policy uncertainty lingers

Canada s economy on track for a solid 2018 although policy uncertainty lingers Canada s economy on track for a solid 2018 although policy uncertainty lingers Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com March 2018 Canada is facing a challenging

More information

Economic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits

Economic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Economic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits Presentation to the Responsible Distribution Canada 32 nd Annual General Meeting May 29, 2018 Paul Ferley (Assistant

More information

Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder

Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder Member FDIC VectraBank.com Economic Outlook 2015 Richard

More information

Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Chart Collection for Morning Briefing Chart Collection for Morning Briefing September 11, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 4-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box 4.6 4.4 4.2

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview Logan Rotary Club June 28, 2018 Dow Tops 26,000 Up 48% Since 2016 Election Jan 26, 2018 26,616 Oct 30, 2016 17,888 Source: Wall Street Journal Dow Around Correction Territory

More information

2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE

2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE 2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE January 14, 2019 Scott Colbert, CFA Executive Vice President Director of Fixed Income & Chief Economist scott.colbert@commercebank.com GLOBAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS

More information

Southwest Ohio Regional Economy in Context. Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group

Southwest Ohio Regional Economy in Context. Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group Southwest Ohio Regional Economy in Context Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group State of the Metro Area (in January Each Year) Total Employment has slowly increased in the last three years after

More information

The Economy: A View from the (Atlanta) Fed (Staff)

The Economy: A View from the (Atlanta) Fed (Staff) The Economy: A View from the (Atlanta) Fed (Staff) 2018 Alabama Economic Outlook Montgomery, AL January 11, 2018 2 The new supply-side economics? In their discussion of monetary policy, participants saw

More information

Economic Outlook. Peter Rupert Professor and Chair Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project

Economic Outlook. Peter Rupert Professor and Chair Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project Economic Outlook Peter Rupert Professor and Chair Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project League of California Cities Monterey, CA December 3, 2014 Economic Update economic

More information

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six plus years of moderate growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half

More information

Transitions: 2019 Economic Forecast for Metro Denver February 6, 2019

Transitions: 2019 Economic Forecast for Metro Denver February 6, 2019 Transitions: 2019 Economic Forecast for Metro Denver February 6, 2019 Prepared by: Can Stock Photo / jkirsh In Partnership with: Consumer Changes and Influences Slowing population growth Aging of the population

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview UAFS & NAIB Convention September 14, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow Breaks 22,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source:

More information

Business Cycles. Chris Edmond NYU Stern. Spring 2007

Business Cycles. Chris Edmond NYU Stern. Spring 2007 Business Cycles Chris Edmond NYU Stern Spring 2007 1 Overview Business cycle properties GDP does not grow smoothly: booms and recessions categorize other variables relative to GDP look at correlation,

More information

Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons. John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009

Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons. John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009 Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009 The U.S. Recession Is Bottoming Out This recession has been the most severe of the postwar

More information

Economic Outlook: fear over fundamentals

Economic Outlook: fear over fundamentals ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Economic Outlook: fear over fundamentals April 2016 Craig Wright (SVP & Chief Economist) (416) 974-7457 craig.wright@rbc.com Volatility index Market volatility index, (VIX) 90 80 70

More information

Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty. Canada headed for another year of solid growth

Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty. Canada headed for another year of solid growth ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty Canada headed for another year of solid growth Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919

More information

Economic & Financial Market Outlook

Economic & Financial Market Outlook Economic & Financial Market Outlook BC Pension Forum March 1, 2013 Chris Lawless, Chief Economist Overview Global forces Recent economic performance ~ US, Europe, Japan, China ~ Other emerging markets

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview National Assoc of Credit Managers Member Seminar December 12, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow Breaks 24,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential

More information

Economic and Real Estate Outlook

Economic and Real Estate Outlook Economic and Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS Presentation at Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS October 13, 2016 1990 1991 1992 1993

More information

2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook. Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC October 8, 2014

2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook. Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC October 8, 2014 2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist,, LAEDC October 8, 2014 Outline U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy & Industries Five-Year Outlook

More information

WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS)

WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS) AUGUST 2018 WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS) 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 900,000 Labor Force Employment 1,152,626 1,116,938 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 2016 to 2017: 35957 (3.1%)

More information

Market Insights. March 29, 2019

Market Insights. March 29, 2019 March 29, 2019 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.2% 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.4% 2.3%

More information

The Great Economic Reset

The Great Economic Reset The Great Economic Reset CMTA Annual Conference Squaw Creek Lake Tahoe April 13, 2016 Presented by Douglas C. Robinson, RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC SEC Registered Investment Advisory Firm Advisory

More information

Recent Developments in the U.S. Manufacturing Industry

Recent Developments in the U.S. Manufacturing Industry REGIONAL ECONOMIC BRIEFING Recent Developments in the U.S. Manufacturing Industry Kevin L. Kliesen Business Economist and Research Officer September 7, 2017 1 Disclaimer The views we will express today

More information

Market Insights. June 30, 2018

Market Insights. June 30, 2018 June 30, 2018 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.7% 1.2% 1.3% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.3%

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah Bankers Association Emerging Bank Leaders Conference. November 9, 2017

Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah Bankers Association Emerging Bank Leaders Conference. November 9, 2017 Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah Bankers Association Emerging Bank Leaders Conference November 9, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow Breaks 23,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S.

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah Valley University Business and Economic Forum May 18, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow 20,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election

More information

Small Business Dynamics and Job Creation. Small Business Numbers, Pretty Pictures and Not So Pretty Pictures

Small Business Dynamics and Job Creation. Small Business Numbers, Pretty Pictures and Not So Pretty Pictures Small Business Dynamics and Job Creation Or Small Business Numbers, Pretty Pictures and Not So Pretty Pictures Brian Headd Office of Advocacy U.S. Small Business Administration Employers 8,000,000 7,500,000

More information

www.colorado.edu/leeds/brd CAREER ADVANCING DEGREES FROM LEEDS EVENING MBA PROGRAM FOR WORKING PROFESSIONALS #1 PART-TIME MBA Program in Colorado according to U.S. News & World Report Engage in a collaborative

More information

2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy

2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy 2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview. December 5, 2017

Zions Bank Economic Overview. December 5, 2017 Zions Bank Economic Overview December 5, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow Breaks 24,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source: Federal Reserve Bank of

More information

Economic Update and Prospects for 2019 Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business

Economic Update and Prospects for 2019 Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business Economic Update and Prospects for 2019 Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business January 3, 2019 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute

More information