United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "United Nations Conference on Trade and Development"

Transcription

1 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 11 th MULTI-YEAR EXPERT MEETING ON COMMODITIES AND DEVELOPMENT April 2019, Geneva Saudi economic growth strategy on the face of oil price uncertainty by Ms. Daniah Orkoubi Head of Economic Reports Department, Ministry of Economy and Planning, Saudi Arabia The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNCTAD.

2 Saudi Economic Growth Strategy on the face of Oil price Uncertainty By Ms. Daniah Orkoubi

3 Agenda 1 Overview 2 Oil Prices and KSA 3 Saudi Economic Strategy 3

4 Section 1 Overview 1. Oil Demand & Global GDP 2. The Future Oil Demand Dynamics 3. Demographic & Economy to drive positive growth 4. KSA : Largest Economy in the MENA & Key Player in Global Oil Sector 4

5 Oil Demand and Global GDP are positively correlated Correlation: 0.75 ( ) Global GDP & Oil Demand World Oil Demand Growth (%) World GDP Growth (%) Global GDP & Oil demand growth continues to remain positive even though at a lower pace. 5

6 The future Global Oil demand dynamics: Primary Energy Mix (%) Oil, 32.09% Oil, 32.09% Oil, 30.96% Coal, 25.48% Coal, 24.01% Coal, 20.21% Gas, 23.06% Gas, 23.60% Gas, 25.74% Biomass/Waste, 9.84% Biomass/Waste, 9.62% Nuclear, 4.85% Nuclear, 5.28% Hydro, 2.49% Hydro, 2.56% Other Renewables, 2.20% Other Renewables, 2.85% Biomass/Waste, 8.36% Nuclear, 6.76% Hydro, 2040, 2.72% Other Renewables, 5.26% Given the demand dynamics and energy poverty in developing countries, Oil will still remain as dominant fuel across the globe and contribute not only towards economic growth & equity BUT ALSO towards a smooth energy shift. 6

7 Demographic & Economy will drive positive growth Population Growth & Urbanization: Trends with more households would lead to higher Energy / Oil Demand inside & outside KSA to support modern living standard. World Population by 2040 (in billion) % KSA Population by 2040 (in Million) % More than 90% of the additional population will be in developing nations where the economic growth & improvement in standard of living are policy priority Reducing energy poverty continue to be policy priority in developing nations Rising economic activities, income and urbanization levels in emerging & developing (Non-OECD) countries Economies are expanding (albeit in a lower pace). Higher growth is positively related to energy /oil demand Global Megatrends indicate towards rapid urbanization & growth of global educated middle class Demographic dynamics would drive growth Global Real GDP growth 3.73% 3.65% 3.66% 3.64% 3.58% 3.59% 3.64% KSA Real GDP growth 2.23% 2.43% 1.91% 2.11% 2.20% 2.28% 2.19% Emerging market and developing economies Real GDP growth 4.68% 4.68% 4.93% 4.88% 4.82% 4.84% 4.81% The global economic growth will keep the oil demand up and hence positively impact KSA s economic transition Positive for KSA Economic Growth Avg Avg Avg. 7

8 KSA is the largest Economy in the MENA & Key Player in Global Oil Sector Largest Economy in the MENA Region (IMF Data) with 2nd largest oil reserves worldwide at end 2017 (BP Stat 2018) with 3rd largest oil Exporter worldwide at end 2017 (BP Stat 2018) Share of World oil reserves Share of World oil Exports 2017, Nominal GDP (PPP - Billion International dollars ) 17.9 % 15.7 % 10% 9.3% 8.8% Oil Reserves (bnof barrels) 6.3% 6 % 5.8% 23.2 % 12.7 % 12.2% 11.3 % 8.2% 6.6% 6.2 % Oil Exports (Thousand of barrels per day) 5.9% KSA UAE Egypt Iraq Algeria Qatar Kuwait Venezuela KSA Canada Iran Iraq Russia Kuwait UAE Middle East (ex KSA) Russia KSA Asia Pacific (ex Japan) US West Africa Canada S. & Cent. America 8

9 Section 2 Oil Prices and KSA 1. Oil Price Trend 2. Oil price & Government Revenue 3. Oil & Non Oil Revenue 4. KSA s Non-Oil Activities recovering 9

10 Jan-98 May-98 Sep-98 Jan-99 May-99 Sep-99 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 Oil Price Trend Monthly Oil Price-Jan 1998-Feb Oil Price (USD/Barrel) Jul-08, Jun-14, Dec-98, Jan-16, Oil price has been historically volatile and uncertain which influenced KSA economy differently at different point of time 10

11 Oil price link with Government Revenue & Expenditure Oil Price, Oil Revenue and Budget Expenditure Move Hand in Hand and are positively correlated Movement of Oil Price, Oil Revenue & Budget Expenditure Total Revenue(Million SAR) Total Expenditure (Million SAR) Oil Revenue(Million SAR) Oil Price (US$/bbl)

12 Oil & Non Oil Revenue Share of Oil & Non Oil Revenue in Total Revenue % % 63% 89% 90% 87% 89% 90% 93% 92% 90% 88% 83% 84% 85% 81% 78% 79% 73% 68% Total Revenue (SAR Million) Oil Revenue (SAR Million) Non-Oil Revenue (SAR Million) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% The share of oil-revenue has been very high indicating heavy dependence on Oil in KSA budgetary landscape However, the share of non-oil revenue is increasing albeit at a slower pace. During , the share of non-oil revenue in total revenue increased at an average of 35% indicating the progress in revenue diversification & reducing the dependence on oil revenue. However, the oil still dominates the government revenue pie Share of Oil Revenue (%) Share of Non-Oil revenue (%) 12

13 KSA s Non-Oil Activities recovering Share of Oil & Non Oil GDP in Total GDP 70% % 42% 44% 41% 42% 43% 45% 48% 49% 53% 55% 54% 54% 56% 57% 56% 56% 57% 57% 60% 50% 40% KSA Economy is regaining momentum driven by recovering Non-Oil Activities % 20% 10% The non-oil GDP is most likely to increase both in terms of absolute value and as the share of GDP ( ) Total Real GDP (Exc Imp Duty) (Million SAR) Share of Oil GDP (%) Share of Non-Oil GDP (%) 0% 13

14 Section 2 Saudi Economic Strategy 1. New Reality 2. Growing Non-oil private sector 3. Strong macroeconomic fundamentals of KSA 4. Vision & Policy Tools 14

15 New Reality REQUIRES New Remedy KSA has built up strong buffers to minimize any potential risks pain Risk reducing factors and reforms measures taken by the government are sufficiently capable to sail KSA through the transition period 15

16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Growing Non-oil private sector Economic Diversification reflected by Growing Non-oil Private Sector KSA PMI Efforts of Economic Diversification have been intensified 3.9 Saudi Non-Oil Exports Jan Dec 2018 (USD Billion) Economic Diversification reflected by Growing Non-oil exports Vibrant Consumer Sector REFLECTED BY Healthy Points of Sales Transactions & Credit Growth Pt of Sale Transactions ( USD Billion ) Average 16

17 Strong macroeconomic fundamentals Moderate Growth + Comfortable Inflation = Investment Heaven Actual Fitch 2.3 Saudi Real GDP Projection P 2020P Debt to GDP Ratio (%) Low Public Debt = Low Financial Risk & Value Creation (Est) In Billion USD * 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* Expansionary Fiscal Policy Revenues Expenditure Deficit/Surplus

18 Strong macroeconomic fundamentals - Low Budget deficit - High Forex Reserve as a emergency buffer zone Forex reserve KSA vs USA (in USD bn) Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Saudi Arabia United Satates KSA Fiscal & Current Account Balance (% of GDP) - KSA s Financial Condition remains firm 29.8% 26.3% 25.5% 22.5% 23.6% 22.4% 19.9% 18.1% 11.3% 12.6% 11.6% 11.9% 9.8% 9.2% 4.9% 4.4% 5.6% 1.5% -5.4% -3.5% -3.7% -4.6% -8.7% -9.2% -15.8% -12.9% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% Fiscal Balance (% of NGDP) Current Account Balance (% of NGDP) 18

19 KSA is all set to face the new reality under the direction of Vision 2030 by using appropriate policy tools Vision & Philosophy Basic Elements of Transition Policy Tools Vision 2030 Goals V I S I O N Economic Diversification Economic Liberalization & Globalization Structural Policy Fiscal Policy Monetary Policy A VIBRANT SOCIETY A THRIVING ECONOMY AN AMBITIOUS NATION & D I R E C T I O N Privatization Key Pillar of Economic Transition Institutional Reforms Social Reforms KSA Policy Tools Clean Environment & Sustainable Development Policy 19

20 Thank you 20

Opening address for dinner-debate

Opening address for dinner-debate Opening address for dinner-debate Mohammed Barkindo Acting for the OPEC Secretary General European Parliament Strasbourg, France 4 July 2006 1 Outline Importance of EU-OPEC Energy Dialogue Current oil

More information

DECLINE IN COMMODITY PRICES GCC OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 22 ND, 2015

DECLINE IN COMMODITY PRICES GCC OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 22 ND, 2015 DECLINE IN COMMODITY PRICES GCC OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 22 ND, 2015 1 EVERYONE HAS A PLAN UNTIL THEY GET PUNCHED IN THE FACE 2 HE WHO IS NOT COURAGEOUS ENOUGH TO TAKE RISKS WILL ACCOMPLISH NOTHING IN LIFE 3 IT

More information

Colombia: Economic Adjustment and Outlook. Andres-Mauricio Velasco Technical Deputy Minister of Finance, Republic of Colombia February 2018

Colombia: Economic Adjustment and Outlook. Andres-Mauricio Velasco Technical Deputy Minister of Finance, Republic of Colombia February 2018 Colombia: Economic Adjustment and Outlook Andres-Mauricio Velasco Technical Deputy Minister of Finance, Republic of Colombia February 2018 What is Colombian Ministry of Finance s outlook and funding strategies

More information

The Herzliya Conference The Economic Dimension Prof. Rafi Melnick Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya

The Herzliya Conference The Economic Dimension Prof. Rafi Melnick Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Herzliya Conference The Economic Dimension 2009 Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Big Issues The broken crystal ball A crisis that happens once in 100 years From a country oriented

More information

MIDDLE EAST ENERGY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK IRAQ ENERGY FORUM 2017

MIDDLE EAST ENERGY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK IRAQ ENERGY FORUM 2017 MIDDLE EAST ENERGY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK IRAQ ENERGY FORUM 2017 2017 1 OVERVIEW OF GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS 2 Energy exports/imports (million tonnes) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

More information

Market Report Series Oil 2017

Market Report Series Oil 2017 Market Report Series Oil 2017 Neil Atkinson, Head Oil Industry & Markets Division, IEA International Institute for Strategic Studies, Bahrain, 17 September 2017 Oil demand continues to grow but at a slower

More information

Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013

Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 1 Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 June 2012 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist Summary Higher economic growth in 2013, possible

More information

TABLE 1. REAL GDP AND GROWTH RATES IN THE ESCWA REGION AT CONSTANT 1995 PRICES, (Millions of US dollars and percentages) Percentage change

TABLE 1. REAL GDP AND GROWTH RATES IN THE ESCWA REGION AT CONSTANT 1995 PRICES, (Millions of US dollars and percentages) Percentage change TABLE 1. REAL GDP AND GROWTH RATES IN THE ESCWA REGION AT CONSTANT 1995 PRICES, 2001-2004 (Millions of US dollars and percentages) Percentage change Country/area 2000 2001 2002 2003 a/ 2004 b/ 2001 2002

More information

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer LECTURE 2 OVERVIEW OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION January 22, 2018 I. THE 1920S A. GDP growth and inflation B.

More information

Sulphur Market Outlook

Sulphur Market Outlook Sulphur Market Outlook Meena Chauhan Head of Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Integer Research The Fertilizer Institute Outlook and Technology conference Fort Lauderdale, Florida Founded in 2002, Integer Research

More information

Market Insights. June 30, 2018

Market Insights. June 30, 2018 June 30, 2018 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.7% 1.2% 1.3% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.3%

More information

Outline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook

Outline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook 2017 International Economic Outlook Everett Grant Research Economist Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas October 2017 The views expressed are those of the author and

More information

Market Insights. March 29, 2019

Market Insights. March 29, 2019 March 29, 2019 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.2% 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.4% 2.3%

More information

Oil Prices: Past, Present, & Future

Oil Prices: Past, Present, & Future Oil Prices: Past, Present, & Future Gulf Research Center November 23, 2005 A. F. Alhajji*, PhD Gulf Energy Program - Moderator Gulf Research Center Dubai, UAE *A. F. Alhajji, PhD is also George Patten

More information

The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference

The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Big Issues The broken crystal ball A crisis that happens once in 100 years From a country oriented

More information

MARKET AND CAPACITY UPDATE. Matthew Marsh September 2016

MARKET AND CAPACITY UPDATE. Matthew Marsh September 2016 MARKET AND CAPACITY UPDATE Matthew Marsh September 2016 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

More information

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Economic Growth 42,000.0 36,000.0 30,000.0 24,000.0 18,000.0 12,000.0 6,000.0 0.0 GDP AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 7.2% 6.2% 6.4% 4.6% 4.8% 3.4% 2.9% 2.8%

More information

Percent

Percent Outline Outline Growth is picking up Percent 6 Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies 5 4 4.9 5.0 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.7 3.7 3.7 3 2 2.0 2.3 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.7 1 1.1 1.3 0 2012 2013 2014 2015

More information

School of international and Public Affairs. Columbia University Manuel Pinho

School of international and Public Affairs. Columbia University Manuel Pinho School of international and Public Affairs Columbia University Manuel Pinho SPHERE WITH CORE What matters to China matters to the world Do not give lessons to China: Europe and the US The challenges: Growth

More information

The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies

The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist, PAGI Group, JLL (Port, Airport & Global Infrastructure) Agenda Where are we in the cycle? What are the barriers

More information

Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook Mark A. Wynne Vice President & Associate Director of Research Director, Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Presentation to Vistas Conference

More information

Global growth prospects

Global growth prospects Global growth prospects Percent 6 Advanced Economies Emerging Markets and Developing Economies 5 4.9 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.5 4 4.3 4.3 3.7 3.7 3 2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1 1.1 1.3 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

More information

Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond

Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Wednesday, April 28, 2010; 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator: Maria Bartiromo, Anchor, CNBC's Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo Speakers: Nick Calamos, President

More information

MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors

MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors INTRODUCTION The U.S. economy continues to grow at a gradual but also erratic pace The current recovery is one of the slowest in the post-wwii U.S. history.

More information

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN Macroeconomic Research and Statistics Department Vol. XVIl, No.3 March 2018 CONTENTS Preface....01 Bhutan s Key Economic Indicators..02 Table

More information

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN Department of Macroeconomic Research and Statistics Vol. XVIl, No.9 September 2018 CONTENTS Preface....01 Bhutan s Key Economic Indicators..02

More information

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN Department of Macroeconomic Research and Statistics Vol. XVIl, No.11 November 2018 CONTENTS Preface....01 Bhutan s Key Economic Indicators..02

More information

Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist recenter.tamu.edu

Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist recenter.tamu.edu Texas Uncertain Economy in a World of Uncertain Oil Prices Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist recenter.tamu.edu National Economic Recovery still Going 2 U.S. Outlook Expected GDP growth still modest:

More information

Energy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union

Energy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union Energy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union GTSP Annual Meeting May 29, 2008 Presented by M. Evans Looking back Overview Economic and demographic trends Energy trends and energy intensity Toward

More information

Economic Overview. Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017

Economic Overview. Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017 Economic Overview Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017 TTX Overview TTX functions as the industry s railcar cooperative, operating under pooling authority granted by the Surface Transportation

More information

SA economic review Kevin Lings. August 2018

SA economic review Kevin Lings. August 2018 SA economic review Kevin Lings August 2018 South Africa real GDP growth year-on-year %y/y 8 7 6 5 Ave 4.3% 4 Ave 2.5% 3 2 Ave 0.9% 1 0-1 -2-3 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2

More information

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS* COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

More information

Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast. May 13, 2014

Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast. May 13, 2014 Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast May 13, 2014 Outline for Today Myths and Realities of this Recovery Positive Economic Signs Negative Economic Signs Outlook for 2014 The Employment Picture

More information

India: Can the Tiger Economy Continue to Run?

India: Can the Tiger Economy Continue to Run? India: Can the Tiger Economy Continue to Run? India s GDP is on the rise US$ trillions Nominal GDP (left axis) GDP growth (right axis) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

More information

U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook

U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX July 2015 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria s (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself and its

More information

Market Report Series Oil SIEW 2017 launch - 28 March 2017

Market Report Series Oil SIEW 2017 launch - 28 March 2017 Market Report Series Oil 2017 SIEW 2017 launch - 28 March 2017 Oil demand continues to grow but at a slower pace 2.0 Global oil demand growth 2014-2022 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

More information

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real

More information

National and Regional Economic Outlook. Central Southern CAA Conference

National and Regional Economic Outlook. Central Southern CAA Conference National and Regional Economic Outlook Central Southern CAA Conference Dr. Mira Farka & Dr. Adrian R. Fleissig California State University, Fullerton April 13, 2011 The Painfully Slow Recovery The Painfully

More information

Cargo outlook Brian Pearce Chief Economist. 13 December 2018

Cargo outlook Brian Pearce Chief Economist. 13 December 2018 Cargo outlook 2019 Brian Pearce Chief Economist 13 December 2018 1 Cargo revenue contribution stabilizing 2 % total revenues 82% 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 64% 62% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

More information

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES DURING THE NEXT RECESSION

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES DURING THE NEXT RECESSION OXYGEN EVENTS CONFERENCE GALA PERFORMANCE 2017 MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES DURING THE NEXT RECESSION - THE CASE OF ROMANIA - Ph.D. Andrei RĂDULESCU Senior Economist, Banca Transilvania Researcher, Institute

More information

Global Containerboard Outlook

Global Containerboard Outlook Global Containerboard Outlook European Conference March 2018 Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper Packaging Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper

More information

The US Economic Outlook

The US Economic Outlook IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook The US Economic Outlook November 2014 ihs.com Rafael Amiel, Director latin America Economics +1 215 789 7405, rafael.amiel.ihs.com 2014 IHS The US economy is gaining momentum Growth

More information

The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services

The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services Growth Is Cooling; But a Soft Landing Is Likely (Real GDP, annualized rate of growth)

More information

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW BOB WELLS SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, CORPORATE COMMUNICATIONS & PUBLIC AFFAIRS FINANCIAL COMMUNITY PRESENTATION OCTOBER 3, 2017

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW BOB WELLS SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, CORPORATE COMMUNICATIONS & PUBLIC AFFAIRS FINANCIAL COMMUNITY PRESENTATION OCTOBER 3, 2017 INDUSTRY OVERVIEW BOB WELLS SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, CORPORATE COMMUNICATIONS & PUBLIC AFFAIRS Forward Looking Statement The presentations today will contain certain forward looking statements," as defined

More information

Global growth forecasts Key countries/regions,

Global growth forecasts Key countries/regions, Global growth forecasts Key countries/regions, 2014-2018 Percent 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Developing Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean United States Euro area

More information

Short and Medium-Term Oil Market Outlook. 13 th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum - 25 May 2016

Short and Medium-Term Oil Market Outlook. 13 th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum - 25 May 2016 Short and Medium-Term Oil Market Outlook 13 th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum - 25 May 2016 Oil world changed on Nov. 27 th 2014 $/bbl 120 Brent crude oil 100 80 60 40 Copyright 2016 Argus Media 20

More information

Forecast evaluation report Robert Chote Chairman

Forecast evaluation report Robert Chote Chairman Forecast evaluation report 2017 Robert Chote Chairman Background to the FER The FER is an annual report looking at the performance of past EFO forecasts against the latest outturn data Rationale Accountability

More information

PROVINCE OF SASKATCHEWAN INVESTOR PRESENTATION

PROVINCE OF SASKATCHEWAN INVESTOR PRESENTATION PROVINCE OF SASKATCHEWAN INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2018 THE SASKATCHEWAN DIFFERENCE Economic Stability Diversified economy balances cyclicality of resources Growing population Majority government with

More information

Japanese Market Potential

Japanese Market Potential Growth Strategy (announced on 14 June 2013) : Japan is BACK. Overall Target: 2% Real GDP Growth in the next 10 years JPY1.5 million Increase of GNI/capita after 10 years Unleash the Potential of Private

More information

Global Economic & Truck-Market Overview: The Next Five Years

Global Economic & Truck-Market Overview: The Next Five Years AUTOMOTIVE Global Economic & Truck-Market Overview: The Next Five Years 22 September 2016 Hannover, Germany Andrej Divis, Director, IHS Automotive +1 703 346 2331, Andrej.Divis@ihsmarkit.com 2 Index, over

More information

Economic & Financial Market Outlook

Economic & Financial Market Outlook Economic & Financial Market Outlook BC Pension Forum March 1, 2013 Chris Lawless, Chief Economist Overview Global forces Recent economic performance ~ US, Europe, Japan, China ~ Other emerging markets

More information

Rebalancing Global Crude Flows

Rebalancing Global Crude Flows Rebalancing Global Crude Flows John Mayes Director of Special Studies AFPM Annual Meeting San Antonio, Texas March 24, 2015 TM&C North American Crude & Condensate Outlook TM&C publishes North American

More information

Rebalancing Global Crude Flows

Rebalancing Global Crude Flows Rebalancing Global Crude Flows John R. Auers Executive Vice President AIChE Dallas Chapter April Section Meeting April 28, 2015 Page 1 TM&C North American Crude & Condensate Outlook TM&C began publishing

More information

Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States?

Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist Dale Orr Canadian Macroeconomic Services Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.

More information

Mexico Stands to Benefit From. With Relative Ease. Jesus Cañas Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Laredo, Texas May 2014

Mexico Stands to Benefit From. With Relative Ease. Jesus Cañas Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Laredo, Texas May 2014 Mexico Stands to Benefit From With Relative Ease Jesus Cañas Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Laredo, Texas May 2014 Outline 2013 worst than expected Economy back on growth track in 2014 Why we care about

More information

The U.S. Economic Outlook

The U.S. Economic Outlook The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September 29 2006 Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service 781-301-9125 patrick.newport@globalinsight.com

More information

Grasshoppers, Ants and Locusts: the future of the world economy

Grasshoppers, Ants and Locusts: the future of the world economy Ralph Miliband Series on the Restructuring of World Power Grasshoppers, Ants and Locusts: the future of the world economy Martin Wolf Associate editor and chief economics commentator, Financial Times Professor

More information

THE ICELANDIC ECONOMY AN IMPRESSIVE RECOVERY BUT WHAT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD?

THE ICELANDIC ECONOMY AN IMPRESSIVE RECOVERY BUT WHAT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD? THE ICELANDIC ECONOMY AN IMPRESSIVE RECOVERY BUT WHAT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD? FROM BUST TO BOOM. AN EPIC BUST After 16 years of growth with a short pause for breath in 2002, the Icelandic economy entered

More information

US Economic Activity

US Economic Activity US Economic Activity GDP has been in positive territory for seven consecutive quarters, and the advance estimate shows the US economy grew at a 1.0% rate in the fourth quarter 2015. US Economic Activity

More information

Dry Bulk Shipping in Indonesia Opportunities & Outlook

Dry Bulk Shipping in Indonesia Opportunities & Outlook Dry Bulk Shipping in Indonesia Opportunities & Outlook Mare Forum, Jakarta 27 Peter Malpas 29 th November 27 Introduction Indonesia Key Facts Land Area 1,919,44 km2 = World s s 16 th Largest Population

More information

A comment on recent events, and...

A comment on recent events, and... A comment on recent events, and... where we are in the current economic cycle November 15, 2016 Mark Schniepp Director Likely Trump Policies $4 to $5 Trillion in tax cuts over 10 years to corporations,

More information

Utility Debt Securitization Authority 2013 T/TE Billed Revenues Tracking Report

Utility Debt Securitization Authority 2013 T/TE Billed Revenues Tracking Report Utility Debt Securitization Authority 2013 T/TE Billed Revenues Tracking Report Billing Budgeted Billed Dollar Percent Month Revenues Revenues Variance Variance Jan 2018 11,943,180.68 12,697,662.47 754,481.79

More information

Houston and Tomball Economic and. Housing Outlook. recenter.tamu.edu. Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist

Houston and Tomball Economic and. Housing Outlook. recenter.tamu.edu. Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist Houston and Tomball Economic and Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist Housing Outlook recenter.tamu.edu THE CURRENT SITUATION The Future Just Ain t What It Used to Be! Yogi Berra National Economic Recovery

More information

Global Economic Outlook. Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics September 2011

Global Economic Outlook. Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics September 2011 Kellie Maske, Sr. Economics Fellow FedEx Corporate Economics U.S. Outlook: Moderate Growth Overall 6 4 US Real GDP Growth 2 % Change 0 (2) (4) Forecast (6) (8) Bars = QOQ% Annualized Line = YOY% (10) 2005

More information

Further Opening Up and Reform of China s Capital Market

Further Opening Up and Reform of China s Capital Market Further Opening Up and Reform of China s Capital Market Haizhou Huang January 7, 2016 China economy and capital market: Finding new normal 1 Macro: We expect China GDP to grow 6.9% in 2015 and 6.8% in

More information

How Global Trade Is Driving Demand For Ports

How Global Trade Is Driving Demand For Ports How Global Trade Is Driving Demand For Ports 17 April, 2018 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Strategist JLL Ports Airports and Global Infrastructure JLL Ports Airports and Global Infrastructure Capital Markets

More information

The United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies. Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight

The United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies. Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight The United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight Subdued Recovery: Tailwinds Battling Headwinds The U.S. Recovery: Tailwinds More sectors

More information

The Cairns Economy Recent Trends and Prospects

The Cairns Economy Recent Trends and Prospects MINING, AGRICULTURE, TOURISM, TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, DEFENCE, EDUCATION, ADMINISTRATION, SERVICES The Cairns Economy Recent Trends and Prospects WS (Bill) Cummings PRESENTATION TO Ref:

More information

4 th IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks. Riyadh, 22 January 2014

4 th IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks. Riyadh, 22 January 2014 4 th IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks Riyadh, 22 January 2014 Spare or stranded?* mb/d 7.0 Medium-Term Oil Market Balance 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

More information

Connecting local enterprises to Global Market: Vietnam. Nguyen Tu Anh At Geneva, 8 October 2014

Connecting local enterprises to Global Market: Vietnam. Nguyen Tu Anh At Geneva, 8 October 2014 Connecting local enterprises to Global Market: Vietnam Nguyen Tu Anh At Geneva, 8 October 2014 Outline The openness of the economy Where to connect The dominant player in connecting Recent moves Policy

More information

RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins

RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins CICA/RBC Q4 2011 Business Monitor Economic Results Overview Business and Economic Optimism Begin to Stablize 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % National Optimism

More information

Monitoring of graduating and graduated countries: Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Maldives, Samoa, and Vanuatu

Monitoring of graduating and graduated countries: Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Maldives, Samoa, and Vanuatu Monitoring of graduating and graduated countries: Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Maldives, Samoa, and Vanuatu Namsuk Kim CDP Secretariat CDP 20 th plenary meeting 12 16 March 2018 Monitoring timeline Date

More information

The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum

The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Chief Economist Monetary Policy Analytics October 5, 2017 What s Driving the Global

More information

RISI LATIN AMERICAN CONFERENCE. (São Paulo, 16 August 2016) The Latin American Economy: Some Successes, Many Disappointments

RISI LATIN AMERICAN CONFERENCE. (São Paulo, 16 August 2016) The Latin American Economy: Some Successes, Many Disappointments RISI LATIN AMERICAN CONFERENCE (São Paulo, 16 August 2016) The Latin American Economy: Some Successes, Many Disappointments Andrea Boltho Magdalen College University of Oxford and Oxford Economics GDP

More information

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half Full

More information

Current Hawaii Economic Conditions. Eugene Tian

Current Hawaii Economic Conditions. Eugene Tian Current Hawaii Economic Conditions Eugene Tian Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism At the PATA/TTRA 2016 Annual Outlook & Economic Forecast Forum February 3, 2016 Positive Signs in the

More information

Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle

Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle Michael Swanson Ph.D. Wells Fargo October 2017 Everything is connected we just don t see how. Connection corollary: Nothing natural moves in a straight

More information

OIL MARKET OUTLOOK, MAIN UNCERTAINTY FACTORS & PRICE INDICATIONS TO Symposium Energieinnovation

OIL MARKET OUTLOOK, MAIN UNCERTAINTY FACTORS & PRICE INDICATIONS TO Symposium Energieinnovation OIL MARKET OUTLOOK, MAIN UNCERTAINTY FACTORS & PRICE INDICATIONS TO 2020 11. Symposium Energieinnovation 23 February 2010 Johannes Benigni JBC Energy GmbH 10. Februar 2010 Research Energy Studies Consulting

More information

Lost in Translation: (In)Coherence Between Agricultural and Development Policy

Lost in Translation: (In)Coherence Between Agricultural and Development Policy Lost in Translation: (In)Coherence Between Agricultural and Development Policy Eugenio Díaz-Bonilla Agricultural Trade Policy in the U.S. Can reform advance domestic policy objectives and sustainable development?

More information

Three-speed economic recovery

Three-speed economic recovery Three-speed economic recovery Projection after 2012 GDP growth, percent 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 Euro area -4-6 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Source: IMF WEO, April 2013. Emerging market and developing economies

More information

Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook

Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook 2016-17 Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Sr. VP/Chief Economist, LAEDC February 17, 2016 Outline U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy

More information

2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE

2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE 2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE January 14, 2019 Scott Colbert, CFA Executive Vice President Director of Fixed Income & Chief Economist scott.colbert@commercebank.com GLOBAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS

More information

Airline industry outlook 2019

Airline industry outlook 2019 Airline industry outlook 2019 Brian Pearce Chief Economist 12 December 2018 Million barrels a day US$ per barrel Are the markets signalling recession ahead? 60 55 Business confidence (left scale) FTSE

More information

5. Golf Industry Trends and Developments in the US 6. The US Macro Economy Factors and Impact over Golf Industry

5. Golf Industry Trends and Developments in the US 6. The US Macro Economy Factors and Impact over Golf Industry TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Golf Industry Performance Worldwide 1.1. Overview 1.2. Global Golf Equipment Demand and Economy 2. The US Golf Industry Overview 2.1. Industry Segmentation 3. Industry Performance

More information

The transition to sustainable energy

The transition to sustainable energy ATSE Symposium The transition to sustainable energy Peter Littlewood 8 Nov 2016 The changing world economy Index 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 Economies less energy intensive Electricity less

More information

Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies

Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Marine Terminal Management Training Program October 15, 2007 Long Beach, CA Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. 1 Agenda Economic

More information

Analyzing the Energy Economy Michael Plante Senior Research Economist

Analyzing the Energy Economy Michael Plante Senior Research Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Analyzing the Energy Economy Michael Plante Senior Research Economist Disclaimer Disclaimer: The statements in this presentation do not represent the official views of the

More information

Index, nominal terms, 2010 = Energy. Agriculture Metals

Index, nominal terms, 2010 = Energy. Agriculture Metals Outline Broad commodity price trends Index, nominal terms, 2010 = 100 180 150 Energy 120 90 60 Agriculture Metals 30 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source:

More information

Economic Update and Outlook

Economic Update and Outlook Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter November 15, 2012 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: Global, U.S., and Canadian economic conditions Canada economic and

More information

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six plus years of moderate growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half

More information

UK Energy Futures. Richard Smith Head of Energy Strategy & Policy

UK Energy Futures. Richard Smith Head of Energy Strategy & Policy UK Energy Futures Richard Smith Head of Energy Strategy & Policy September 2012 Our 2012 scenario development Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Stakeholder workshops (London &

More information

Car Production. Brazil Mexico. Production in thousands. Source: AMIA Asociacion Mexicana de la industria automotriz.

Car Production. Brazil Mexico. Production in thousands. Source: AMIA Asociacion Mexicana de la industria automotriz. Car Production Production in thousands 4000 3000 2000 1000 Brazil Mexico 0 2013 2014 2015 Source: AMIA Asociacion Mexicana de la industria automotriz. Mexico s Expanding Middle Class Percent of population

More information

18 th May Global Steel Industry Trends: Is the perception the reality?

18 th May Global Steel Industry Trends: Is the perception the reality? 18 th May 2004 Global Steel Industry Trends: Is the perception the reality? Investors have perceived the steel industry negatively Poor returns over the long term, high volatility, relatively small size

More information

Global economic cycle has slowed

Global economic cycle has slowed Year-on-year % change Confidence index, 50= no change Global economic cycle has slowed 25% 70 20% International trade growth 65 15% 10% Industrial production growth 60 5% 55 0% 50-5% Business confidence

More information

GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST

GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST BREXIT TRUMPISM EURO-TRUMPISM 4 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 LET S GET GEOPOLITICS IN PERSPECTIVE

More information

2017/18 Corn Outlook

2017/18 Corn Outlook 217/18 Corn Outlook 217 Ag Econ In service Training Dr. S. Aaron Smith, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee https://ag.tennessee.edu/arec/pages/cropeconomics.aspx

More information

Will 2016 Be the Last Hurrah for Commercial Real Estate? Presented By: John Chang First Vice-President Marcus & Millichap Research Services

Will 2016 Be the Last Hurrah for Commercial Real Estate? Presented By: John Chang First Vice-President Marcus & Millichap Research Services Will 2016 Be the Last Hurrah for Commercial Real Estate? Presented By: John Chang First Vice-President Marcus & Millichap Research Services Rising Uncertainty Creating Headwinds for Commercial Real Estate

More information

Table of Contents. Acknowledgements... vii Abbreviations and Acronyms... ix Overview... xi

Table of Contents. Acknowledgements... vii Abbreviations and Acronyms... ix Overview... xi Table of Contents Acknowledgements... vii Abbreviations and Acronyms... ix Overview... xi Chapter 1. 2008 A Year of Wild Fluctuations in the Global Economy...1 Introduction...1 The Triple Crisis Fuel-Food-Financial...1

More information

HotelBenchmark Survey and assessment of European hotel performance trends

HotelBenchmark Survey and assessment of European hotel performance trends A HotelBenchmark Survey and assessment of European hotel performance trends Launch of the HotelBenchmark Survey for Belgium and The Netherlands Julia Felton Executive Director HotelBenchmark HotelBenchmark

More information

Susan J. Adams, PhD IMF-PFTAC Coordinator

Susan J. Adams, PhD IMF-PFTAC Coordinator A MACROECONOMIC PORTRAIT OF THE PACIFIC: A Presentation for PEGASeS August 16, 2007 Susan J. Adams, PhD IMF-PFTAC Coordinator Compiled by the IMF Asia and Pacific Department Edited by PFTAC OUTLINE OF

More information