The Baltic economies: Current situation and future trends, possibilities and pitfalls

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1 The Baltic economies: Current situation and future trends, possibilities and pitfalls Riga, 15 October 2015 Morten Hansen Head of Economics Department, Stockholm School of Economics in Riga Member of the Fiscal Discipline Council of Latvia

2 Outline Background: Where do we have the Baltics today? Short-term domestic issues Being in the Eurozone was it a wise choice? Fiscal policy and the Eurozone Competitiveness Banking External threats Grexit will Greece leave the Eurozone? Russia impact on the Baltics China slowdown. Which impact? Long run issues Employment Convergence Structural weaknesses

3 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 Economic growth in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and EU28 10,0 5,0 0,0-5,0 EU28 Estonia Latvia Lithuania -10,0-15,0

4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 Economic growth in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and EU28 10,0 5,0 0,0-5,0 EU28 Estonia Latvia Lithuania -10,0-15,0 Significant slowdown and mainly due to: &

5 Growth ranking in EU28, Estonia Latvia Lithuania Only now a more normal development

6 Ireland Netherlands Austria Denmark Germany Sweden Belgium Finland United Kingdom France Italy Spain Cyprus Malta Czech Republic Slovenia Portugal Slovakia Lithuania Estonia Greece Hungary Poland Latvia Croatia Romania Bulgaria GDP per capita, PPS, 2014, EU28 = 100 Luxembourg excluded Still a long way to go

7 GDP flexibility GDP change during the financial crisis ( ), 1 st axis against recovery period ( ), 2 nd axis

8 EU28 GDP change during the financial crisis ( ), 1 st axis against recovery period ( ), 2 nd axis 25 Baltics Poland Greece Cyprus

9 Do the Baltic countries belong in EMU? Yes and better than many existing members Very flexible labour markets In terms of wages In terms of labour migration Very open economies EEK, LVL, LTL not as credible as DKK or SEK Was always the goal what is the alternative? No more talk about possible devaluation Highly euroized before joining Hands tied may be a good approach for Latvia and Lithuania

10 Another way to see this: Coping with fiscal policy in the Eurozone Maastricht criteria: Max. 3% budget deficit, max. 60% debt to GDP Gross debt as % of GDP Budget balance as % of GDP

11 Estonia

12 Estonia Star pupil!!! 100 Maastricht criteria

13 Latvia

14 Latvia Budget consolidation ( austerity )

15 Lithuania

16 Lithuania

17 ???

18 Germany

19 Greece

20

21

22 Indeed! No short-term imbalances in the Baltic economies VERY unlike 2007.

23 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 Real Effective Exchange Rate, Baltics and EU = ,00 160,00 External competitiveness 140,00 120,00 100,00 EU28 Estonia Latvia Lithuania 80,00 60,00

24 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 Real Effective Exchange Rate, Baltics and EU = ,00 160,00 Losing competitiveness again? 140,00 120,00 100,00 EU28 Estonia Latvia Lithuania 80,00 60,00

25 Cyprus Croatia Ireland Greece Slovenia Luxembourg Spain Portugal Belgium Czech Republic Romania Bulgaria United Kingdom Netherlands Poland Finland Malta Sweden Denmark Italy France Hungary Germany Austria Slovakia Lithuania Estonia Latvia Increase in unit labour costs,

26 Cyprus Croatia Ireland Greece Slovenia Luxembourg Spain Portugal Belgium Czech Republic Romania Bulgaria United Kingdom Netherlands Poland Finland Malta Sweden Denmark Italy France Hungary Germany Austria Slovakia Lithuania Estonia Latvia Increase in unit labour costs, Too reminiscent of 2007

27 30 Banking sector loans, Latvia Bill. EUR One of the leftovers from the financial crisis

28 External threats Grexit a Greek exit from the Eurozone???

29 No Grexit. The EU and Eurozone is like James Bond

30 Russia Recession Oil prices Sanctions Impact on the Baltics?

31 Growth rates, Baltics and Russia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Russia

32 Growth rates, Baltics and Russia Zooming in Estonia Latvia Lithuania Russia

33 Growth rates, Baltics and Russia Zooming in It is recession in Russia that mainly affects the Baltics, not so much sanctions Estonia Latvia Lithuania Russia

34 Slowdown in China what to expect? Impact on GDP and trade Impact on financial markets

35 Five largest economies in the world Bill. USD, 2014, market exchange rates , , ,00 About 15% of world GDP , , , , , , ,00 0,00 USA China Japan Germany UK

36 Some back-of-the-envelope calculations China s imports: app. 3% of rest-of-world GDP If, say, China s GDP drops 5%, its imports are likely to drop by about 10% - but that is just 0.3% of rest-of-world GDP China is just not that important..

37 Much more important might be the following: Impact on exchange rates: Exporters of raw materials to China may see pressure on their exchange rates Possible contagion a la the Asian financial crisis 1997

38 Employment, 1000s, Baltics, ,0 Long-run issues 1 400, , ,0 800,0 600,0 Estonia Latvia Lithuania 400,0 200,0 0,

39 Employment, 1000s, Baltics, Index, 2000 = Estonia Latvia Lithuania The impact of bad demographics and migration

40 Unemployment rates, Baltics 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 Estonia Latvia Lithuania 5,0 0,

41 Unemployment rates in the EU March

42 Population projection, Baltics Estonia Latvia Lithuania

43 EU28 Slovakia Slovenia Czech Republic Sweden Netherlands Finland Belgium Austria Denmark Malta Hungary Germany Ireland France United Kingdom Luxembourg Poland Croatia Cyprus Italy Estonia Spain Romania Portugal Greece Lithuania Latvia Bulgaria Inequality: Gini coefficient, 2013*, EU *2014 data available for only some of the countries

44 Inequality: Material deprivation, EU28, 2013

45 Catching-up GDP per capita, Baltics and Greece, Italy and Portugal, , , , , , , ,00 Estonia Greece Italy Latvia Lithuania Portugal 5 000,00 0,00

46 but with the wrong countries. Significant gaps still to be closed , , , , , , , , ,00 Denmark Estonia Germany Latvia Lithuania Sweden 5 000,00 0,00

47 Structural weaknesses Country capacity to retain talent: EE 97 LV 94 LT 119 Country capacity to attract talent: EE 94 LV 107 LT 129

48 EU28 Finland Sweden Denmark Germany Austria Slovenia Belgium France Netherlands Czech Republic Estonia United Kingdom Ireland Hungary Portugal Italy Spain Luxembourg Lithuania Poland Malta Slovakia Croatia Greece Bulgaria Latvia Cyprus Romania R&D spending, share of GDP, EU28, 2013 LV, LT: Pathetic. 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0

49 The Baltics in the Eurozone EZ19: Growth of GDP per capita, But one should always finish on a more positive note

50 EZ19: Growth of GDP per capita, Catching up/partial convergence The troubled southern Europe

51 Some conclusions The Baltic countries are model citizens in the Eurozone And they face no short-term imbalances (but watch out for competitiveness!!) Problems are of a long-run nature Some of which have been there for a very long time but with little policy action (brain drain) And some of them are getting more problematic (employment, labour force) And, worse still, don t have obvious solutions..

52 Thank you for your attention!

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