Perspectives on the long-term outlook for iron ore

Transcription

1 Perspectives on the long-term outlook for iron ore John Barkas Iron Ore 2015 Perth WA, 13 July 2015

2 Disclaimer Metalytics is a consultancy based in Sydney, Australia that provides specialist advisory services in resource sector economics. This presentation has been prepared to provide general information for the personal use of delegates to the Iron Ore 2015 conference in Perth, July 2015, and may not be used or relied upon for any other purpose. None of the contents and conclusions contained in this presentation may be republished or redistributed in whole or in part without the prior written permission of Metalytics. Data contained, referenced or illustrated in this presentation are based on statistical and industry sources available to Metalytics that may be incomplete or inaccurate. Estimates, forecasts and analysis may incorporate assumptions that are subject to significant degrees of economic or other uncertainties, and opinions and conclusions are subject to change. Although we have exercised care in preparing this material, Metalytics makes no warranty in regard to its contents, and shall not be liable in respect of any matter arising from the use of this presentation, without limitation. Nothing in this presentation constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell commodities, shares, derivative products or other financial instruments, nor is anything herein to be construed as investment advice or advice of any other kind. Directors and employees of Metalytics may hold shares or have financial interests in companies and/or industries related to the subject matter of this presentation.

3 Platts IODEX 62% Fe index prices iron ore fines, CFR North China $200 US$/dry tonne CFR North China $175 $150 $125 $100 $75 $50 $25 $0 Source: Platts

4 World crude steel production, Million Tonnes Great Depression 58% : CAGR 5.4% : CAGR 0.8% GFC Recession 8% World ex China : CAGR 17.4% China Source: IISA/WSA, Metalytics analysis

5 World crude steel, million tonnes World GDP and steel production 1,800 World GDP (LHS) ,500 1, World GDP at constant (2010) prices, US dollar trillions Sources: World Bank, IISA/WSA, Metalytics analysis

6 The iron ore price boom in perspective $180 $160 $140 Nominal Real 2015 terms US$/dry metric tonne $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ Annual prices for Australian reference fines (62%Fe), FOB Pilbara Source: Metalytics analysis

7 Seaborne iron ore a growing market Million wet tonnes 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, other sources Canada Sth Africa India Australia Brazil Australia s market share has grown strongly currently at 57% Source: Metalytics analysis

8 World steel production 2,000 1,800 Million tonnes 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Rest of world Other Asia China Metalytics forecasts China s steel production will approach 900Mtpa by the end of the decade Source: Metalytics analysis

9 Forecast for China: diverging trends 1,400 million tonnes 1,200 1, China Steel production China Iron ore imports China s domestic iron ore production peaked in 2013 (finished grade basis) Source: Metalytics analysis

10 China s iron ore imports Australia s market share million tonnes other sources 50 Australia 0 Mar 2007 Dec 2007 Sep 2008 Jun 2009 Mar 2010 Dec 2010 Sep 2011 Jun 2012 Mar 2013 Dec 2013 Sep 2014 Jun 2015 Australia now supplies more than 60% of Chinese iron ore imports Source: China Customs data, Metalytics analysis

11 Cash cost curve outlines for world iron ore mines (ex-china) US$/dry tonne in real (2015) terms $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Cumulative millions of tonnes (wet) Source: Metalytics analysis: FOB cash costs of mines feeding world iron ore trade

12 Cash cost curve outlines : 2005 and 2015 US$/dry tonne in real (2015) terms $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Cumulative millions of tonnes (wet) Source: Metalytics analysis: FOB cash costs of mines feeding world iron ore trade

13 Between 2005 and 2012, the cost curve has extended and moved up US$/dry tonne in real (2015) terms $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Cumulative millions of tonnes (wet) Source: Metalytics analysis: FOB cash costs of mines feeding world iron ore trade

14 Post-2012, the cost curve has extended and flattened US$/dry tonne in real (2015) terms $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Cumulative millions of tonnes (wet) Source: Metalytics analysis: FOB cash costs of mines feeding world iron ore trade

15 Cost curve centiles Australian iron ore mines US$ per DMT (real 2015 terms) $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 90% 75% 50% 25% Source: Metalytics analysis: FOB cash costs of mines feeding world iron ore trade

16 Cost curve centiles world data set US$ per DMT (real 2015 terms) $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 90% 75% 50% 25% Source: Metalytics analysis: FOB cash costs of mines feeding world iron ore trade

17 Industry projections must take account of: Slower but inexorable world economic growth, but with escalating consumer demand for steel China s economic policy directed towards stable growth but without major stimulus Structural changes in production cost drivers, including lower oil prices and USD exchange rates Need to embrace growing environmental concerns in both the industrialised world and developing countries at all stages of the steel value chain

18 Metalytics current forecast $180 US$/dry metric tonne $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 Nominal Real 2015 terms Forecast $20 $ Annual prices for Australian reference fines (62%Fe), FOB Pilbara Source: Metalytics analysis

19 Metalytics Market Analysis and Economics Advisory Services in the Mining and Metals Industries Metalytics Level 12, 301 George St Sydney NSW 2000 Australia Thank You Ph Visit for information and downloads