Energy, Economy and Policy: A Glimpse at the 21 st Century

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1 Gas Well Deliquification Workshop Denver, Colorado February, 2009 Energy, Economy and Policy: A Glimpse at the 21 st Century Scott W. Tinker Bureau of Economic Geology Jackson School of Geosciences The University of Texas at Austin

2 What a difference a year makes

3 Concepts I. Energy is the Engine of Modern Economies II. Energy Transitions take Time III. A Glimpse at 21 st Century Policy

4 Global Energy Use Energy Use (Quadrillion Btu) Asia & Oceania United States Europe Eurasia Central & South America Middle East Canada & Mexico 87% Fossil Fuels Coal Oil Gas Nuclear All Other Africa Quadrillion Btu 1 Quad ~ 1 Exajoule ~ 1 Tcf ~ 170 mmbo (~ 33 GWY) Data: EIA, October 2007

5 Energy-Economy Economy Cycles Global oil demand pulls on supply Weak dollar (interest rates, debt, war, trade deficit) Speculators hedge; buy oil to protect against weak dollar Weak dollar, tight D/S drive, and speculation drive the dollarbased price of oil up High price dampens energy demand Mortgage and credit crisis and global interdependent reactions slam global markets Demand dampening, excess production capacity, weak economy drive oil price down Oil production cut by OPEC Lower oil prices prop up economy Global oil demand pulls on supply

6 US Economy and Oil Price Oil Price $ of the day $ GDP Growth (% points at annual rates) Nixon Ford Carter Reagan Bush Clinton W Bush Oil Domestic Wellhead Price ($) Year 0 Data: EIA February 2007 and US department of Commerce

7 Energy Underpins Economies ~3 billion people After: Koonin, 2008

8 Concepts I. Energy is the Engine of Modern Economies II. Energy Transitions take Time III. A Glimpse at 21 st Century Policy

9 Tinker, 2008 Global Energy Consumption 100 Percentage of total market H/C<1 (Wood, Coal) H/C~2 (Oil) H/C>4 (Natural Gas, Nuclear, All others) U.S. Data: Annual Energy Review 1999 (EIA, 2000) World Data: International Energy Annual 1999 (EIA, 2000) Year QAc9841c

10 Global Energy Demand Source: National Petroleum Council, 2007

11 % Total Consumption Global Energy Consumption (quads) 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Historical Data: EIA October 2007 Coal Natural Gas Hydroelectric Demand Forecast 91% 87% 80% Fossil Fuels Tinker Forecast Petroleum Biomass, Geothermal, Solar & Wind 1.25% annual demand growth Nuclear ~255Q ~415Q ~495Q Fossil Fuels

12 Global Oil Reserves & Production Global Annual Production (mbo) 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000, , $ , $90.00 $ , $ $60.00 $ $ $30.00 $ $ $0.00 Global Oil Price Reserves ($2007) (bbo) R/P World Oil Production (Thousand Barrels) Oil Price Average in $/bbl Inflation Adjusted 2007 World Oil Reserves (Billion Barrels) Source: Energy Information Administration As of January 2008 ( ), OPEC (

13 Oil Forecast Global Energy Consumption (quads) Tinker Forecast Energy Consumption (mmbod) Source: National Petroleum NPC, Council,

14 U.S. Natural Gas Production U.S. Natural Annual Gas Natural Production Gas Production (Bcf) (TCF) ,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Total Natural Gas Conventional Gas Difference Tight Gas Coalbed Methane Gas Shales Year Unconventionals Year Conventionals: EIA ( ) and NPC ( ) Unconventionals: data from GRI, Updated data from is from EIA, 2007

15 Global Energy Consumption (~TcF) ,560 TcF Resources: ~ 200 years at 150 TcF year Source: SPE Paper 68755, National Petroleum Council, 2007 Natural Gas Forecast Tinker Forecast Natural Gas (Tcf) Supply Demand Global Production Natural Gas Year Data: EIA, October 2007 R/P (yrs) 70 60

16 Coal Forecast Global Energy Consumption (quads) R/P Tinker Forecast Source: National Petroleum Council, 2007

17 Renewables Forecast Global Energy Consumption (quads) Tinker Forecast >40Q! Historical Data: EIA October 2007

18 Renewables Forecast ~5 MW Nameplate ~25% Efficiency Global Energy Consumption (quads) ~ 100 MW Nameplate ~ 25 MW Actual Tinker Forecast >40Q! Historical Data: EIA October 2007

19 Renewables Forecast We need > 40 Q Global Energy Consumption (quads) II. Energy Transitions Take Time (and engineering)

20 Concepts I. Energy is the Engine of Modern Economies II. Energy Transitions take Time III. A Glimpse at 21 st Century Policy

21 Energy Independence should not be confused with Energy Security Wise Policy will Focus on Energy Security

22 Energy End Use Electricity Hydro Uranium Transportation Imports Conventional Oil Coal U.S. Data Natural Gas Biomass Data: EIA 2007 Heat

23 Parameters for Energy Security Available Affordable Reliable Clean

24 Global Policy for Energy Security Increased Efficiency Diversify the global energy portfolio Improved energy Infrastructure Carbon Price that is transparent, economy-wide, global Strengthen global Energy Trade Dialog between Developed and Developing Nations Balance global Workforce Demographics Policy that engages Energy, Economy and Environment Build Global Bridges for Energy Security

25 Three Global Bridges Energy, Economy, Environment Developed and Developing Nations Industry, Government, Academe

26 Electricity s s Role 100 Electricity will play an ever greater role in the energy end use mix. 45Q Annual Use (Quads) 10 1 Total U. S. Energy Energy used to produce electricity After Huber and Mills, Data: EIA, Annual Review, US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the US Colonial Ties to 1970

27 Global Carbon Emissions Annual Anthropogenic CO2 (mmt) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, NA Africa Cent & SA Asia & Oceania Europe ME Eurasia Data: EIA 2007

28 +$ BEG s Gulf Coast Carbon Center EOR Stacked Sinks -$ Sequestration

29 Cost of Carbon $20-$40 per tonne Mitigate and Adapt! Source: Koonin, 2008

30 Efficiency Electricity Options Fuel, lighting, electronics, insulation Challenge: Rebound effect Natural Gas Coal Abundant, reliable, price volatility, and cleaner Challenges: Global deliverability (LNG) and Access Abundant, reliable, cheap and dirty Challenge: Sequestration (IGCC w/ccs), financing, public perception Nuclear Abundant, reliable, moderate price and cleaner Challenges: Waste disposal, security, public perception Alternatives Cleaner, less reliable and more expensive Challenge: Capacity impacts cost and reliability

31 Efficiency Electricity Options Fuel, lighting, electronics, insulation Challenge: Rebound effect Natural Gas Abundant, reliable, price volatility, and cleaner Challenges: Global deliverability (LNG) and Access Coal Abundant, reliable, cheap and dirty Challenge: Sequestration (IGCC w/ccs), financing, public perception Nuclear Abundant, reliable, moderate price and cleaner Challenges: Waste disposal, security, public perception Alternatives A Grand Challenge Electricity Storage and Transmission Cleaner, less reliable and more expensive Challenge: Capacity impacts cost and reliability

32 Bridge Energy, Economy, Environment A healthy economy requires energy and provides capacity to invest in the environment Fossil fuels are the foundation of today s economy and the bridge to an alternate energy future Electricity demand is growing The cost to reduce carbon is high and everyone must participate, or it likely will not happen Alternate energies require time, money and technology to achieve commercial scale

33 Bridge Developed and Developing Nations For major economies, industrialization brings 21 st century technological understanding and social responsibilities Developed and developing nations are interdependent As developing nations grow, we must guard 407Q against nationalism and instead seek global solutions

34 Bridge Industry, Government, Academe Complex global issues pose technological and social challenges requiring an integrated approach Each sector has different time scales for decision making, and are motivated by different opportunities Science, policy and commercialization are critical partners for the future Global Opportunities Abound!

35 Summary Concepts I. Energy is the engine of modern economies fossil fuels provide 87% of today s s energy II. Energy transitions take time fossil fuels are the stable bridge to an alternate energy future pace is limited by cost and infrastructure scale electricity is growing as an end use energy III. 21 st Century Policy Builds Global Bridges

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