The Merits of Diversification in Portfolio Management

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1 The Merits of Diversification in Portfolio Management December 7, 2015 Hunter Meisenheimer, CFA Senior Vice President (901) Intended for Institutional Clients Only See Page 43 for Important Disclaimers & Disclosures FIXED INCOME RESEARCH Objectives Broad Understanding of Diversification Theory Implication for Public Sector Portfolio Diversification Within the Agency Sector Broader Asset Class Diversification 2 1

2 Diversification 3 Stock Portfolio 6000 Stocks Stocks Return 9.92% St Dev 15.53% MaxDD 50.95% $100 becomes $ 4, Stocks 4 2

3 Stock Portfolio 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Annual Returns Stocks 5 Bond Portfolio 3000 Bonds Bonds Return 8.04% St Dev 8.36% MaxDD 15.79% $100 becomes $ 2, Bonds 6 3

4 Bond Portfolio 50% Annual Returns 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% Bonds 7 Stocks and Bonds 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Annual Returns Stocks Bonds 8 4

5 Blended Portfolio 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Annual Returns Stocks Bonds Blend 9 Blended Portfolio Stocks Bonds 10 5

6 Blended Portfolio Stocks Stocks Bonds Bonds Blend 11 Blended Portfolio Stocks Bonds Blend Return 9.92% 8.04% 9.37% St Dev 15.53% 8.36% 9.14% MaxDD 50.95% 15.79% 23.11% $100 becomes $ 4,868 $ 2,394 $ 3,

7 Fully Diversified Stocks Bonds Blend Full Diversified T-Bills, S&P, Small Caps, Foreign Stocks, Emerging Markets, Treasuries, Corporates, Commodities, REIT, Long Treasuries, Gold, Foreign Bonds 13 Diversified Portfolio Stocks Bonds Blend Diversified Return 9.92% 8.04% 9.37% 10.36% St Dev 15.53% 8.36% 9.14% 7.98% MaxDD 50.95% 15.79% 23.11% 29.74% $100 becomes $ 4,868 $ 2,394 $ 3,961 $ 5,738 T-Bills, S&P, Small Caps, Foreign Stocks, Emerging Markets, Treasuries, Corporates, Commodities, REIT, Long Treasuries, Gold, Foreign Bonds 14 7

8 Diversification Not designed to increase returns, but sometimes that occurs. Intended to reduce volatility and drawdowns. By adding uncorrelated assets. Not by adding less risky assets, though that helps. Keep in mind, correlations are not constant. In times of crisis, correlations increase among asset classes, reducing the benefits of diversification. 15 Objectives Broad Understanding of Diversification Theory Implication for Public Sector Portfolio Diversification Within the Agency Sector Broader Asset Class Diversification 16 8

9 Simple Portfolio Comparison A vs. B 17 Portfolio A 18 9

10 Portfolio B 19 Goal of Public Sector Portfolio Diversification Fixed income products are all very correlated. Most volatility is driven by interest rate sensitivity. Lack of uncorrelated investments means you have to diversify by focusing on: Liquidity Cash Flow o Maintain enough cash flow so that you are not forced to sell securities. o Spread out maturity to reduce reinvestment risk

11 Objectives Broad Understanding of Diversification Theory Implication for Public Sector Portfolio Diversification Within the Agency Sector Broader Asset Class Diversification 21 Diversification Factors Maturity Call Date Call Type Issuer Deal Size Coupon Type (Fixed/Floating/Step) Coupon Payment Dates 22 11

12 Callable Portfolio 23 Call Type One Time (1x) or European Call Callable once after a specified lockout period. For example, a 5-year bond which is callable one-time after 2 years. Continuous or American Call Callable anytime with a specified period of notice (usually 10 or 30 days). Discrete or Bermuda Call Callable on interest payment dates only by a predetermined call schedule. Canary Call A hybrid between a Bermuda call and a European call

13 Issuer November Issuer June

14 Federal Home Loan Banks The Federal Home Loan Bank system was organized in 1932 under the Federal Home Loan Bank Act. Organized Prior to Fannie Mae (1938) or Freddie Mac (1970). The Act was designed to restore confidence in the U.S. banking system and revive the post-depression housing market. The Act also created the need for a credit system to ensure the availability of funds to finance home loans. Thus, the primary purpose of the FHLB is to lend funds in the form of collateralized advances to member institutions for making home loans. Super Lien Authority. State Tax advantage keeps demand high. 27 FHLB Debt Highlights Joint and several obligations of the system banks. Not guaranteed by the Federal Government. Typically not subject to State income taxes. Issued as senior debt. Senior debt rated AA+/Aaa. Website:

15 Farm Credit Federal Farm Credit Bank FFCB Oldest of the GSEs Co-operative Structure Over $275 Billion in Assets Debt Issuance Growing Fast Becoming Player in Daily AA+/Aaa GSE Debt Issuance Net Income of over $3.5 Billion in each year over past 5 years. Regulatory Oversight o Farm Credit Administration Executive Branch Added Protection o Farm Credit System Insurance Corp 29 Other Large U.S. GSEs Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Federal Agriculture Mortgage Corporation ( Farmer Mac ) Alternative Issuers in Agency Market Private Export Funding Corporation (PEFCO) Financing Corporation (FICO) U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) 30 15

16 TVA Tennessee Valley Authority TVA Nation s Largest Public Power Producer Wholly Owned by Federal Government o Does Not Issue Stock Sole Discretion to Set Power Rates o Directed by TVA Act to Set Rates to Cover Debt Costs Diversified Power Production o Coal-Fired Units o Operating Nuclear Units o Hydro Units o Combustion-Turbine Units o Green Power Facilities 31 TVA Table II Comparison to Two of the Largest GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac TVA Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 1938 (FNMA) Federal Charter (FHLMC) Federal Ownership Shareholders Government Financial Objective Profit Neutral For Profit Primary revenue source Electricity Sales Mortgages Explicit guarantee by the U.S. Gov. No No Rating of senior unsecured securities AA+/Aaa AA+/Aaa Business type Public Power Utility Financial Services Approximate level of outstanding debt securities $25 Billion $450 Billion each State and local income tax exemption Yes No Source: Tennessee Valley Authority, Bloomberg 32 16

17 Farmer Mac provides a secondary market for agricultural and rural utility loans through the mobilization of external capital. Created by Congress in response to the agricultural credit crisis in the mid-1980s. Farmer Mac is a Government Sponsored Enterprise (GSE) and an institution of the Farm Credit System (FCS). Farmer Mac is regulated by the Farm Credit Administration (FCA), an independent agency in the executive branch of the United States government. Farmer Mac has $1.5 billion U.S. Treasury backstop supporting guarantees

18 Other Diversification Factors Deal Size Larger deal size are more liquid. Global deals greater than $1Billion have the most liquidity. Smaller auction deals are not as liquid but offer higher yields. Coupon Type Fixed/Floating/Steps. Step alternatives to floaters currently attractive. Coupon Payment Dates Structure coupon payments months just like you would maturity and call dates to reduce reinvestment risk. 35 Objectives Broad Understanding of Diversification Theory Implication for Public Sector Portfolio Diversification Within the Agency Sector Broader Asset Class Diversification 36 18

19 Asset Class Diversification Introducing additional asset classes can boost returns and provide further diversification. Mortgages Agencies 37 Treasury vs Swaps 38 19

20 Mortgage Backed Securities Compare to 3Year NC 6Month 1.10% 3-year Avg Life, 2.48 Effective Duration 39 MBS vs Callables 40 20

21 Taxable Municipal Connecticut GO 1.481% 4/15/2017 Aa3/AA Yields 0.90%, +10bps to Agency Bullets FNMA 1.125% 4/15/ % Jacksonville FL SPL Rev 1.703% 10/01/2018 AA3/AA- Yield 1.55%, +25bps to Agency Bullets FNMA 1.125% 10/19/ % 41 Question & Answer 42 21

22 Disclaimers & Disclosures The information contained herein is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. The opinions expressed herein reflect the judgment of the author at this date and are subject to change without notice and are not a complete analysis of every material fact respecting any company, industry or security Raymond James & Associates, Inc. and affiliates and their officers, directors, shareholders and employees and members of their families may make investments in a company or securities mentioned herein before, after or concurrently with the publication of this report. Raymond James & Associates, Inc. may from time to time perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other services from any company, person or entities mentioned herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Raymond James & Associates, Inc. makes no representation as to the legal, tax, credit, or accounting treatment of any transactions mentioned herein, or any other effects such transactions may have on you and your affiliates or any other parties to such transactions and their respective affiliates. You should consult with your own advisors as to such matters

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