CU Real Estate Forum. The Game is Still Going. The Longest 7 th Inning Ever. Presenter: Doug Wulf. Monday, December 7, 2015

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1 CU Real Estate Forum The Game is Still Going The Longest 7 th Inning Ever Presenter: Doug Wulf Monday, December 7, 2015

2 Out! Safe!

3 Where Are We in the Cycle? Recession-Recovery Table History is not on our side Recession Recovery/Expansion Period Length of Expansion Following Recession GDP Growth During Expansion Monthly Job Growth During Expansion (000s) 1948 Q Q qtrs 7.4% Q Q qtrs 4.1% Q Q qtrs 6.7% Q Q qtrs 5.1% Q Q qtrs 5.3% Q Q qtrs 3.5% Q Q qtrs 4.4% Q Q qtrs 4.4% Q Q qtrs 3.8% Q Q qtrs 2.7% Q current 24 qtrs+ 2.2% 130 Average (48-01) 19.7 qtrs 4.8% Source: National Bureau of Economic Research

4 Investors Are Drawn to the U.S. Fundamentals Office Rent Growth: U.S. Markets vs. Other Cities Around the World 20% 17% 10% 10% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% -1% -1% -10% -20% San Francisco Chicago New York Phoenix Houston London (city) San Jose Paris (CBD) Dallas Denver San Diego Raleigh Minneapolis Boston Brussels Helsinki Berlin Sydney Beijing Frankfurt Rome Barcelona Shanghai Madrid Moscow -30% -40% Office Rent Growth, 2015 over 2014 Percent Change -35% Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

5 U.S. Fundamentals Remain STRONG HH Balance Sheets Fantastic Q1 81 Q4 84 Q3 88 Q2 92 Q1 96 Q4 99 Q3 03 Q2 07 Q1 11 Q1 15 HH Debt Service Ratio Soaring Corporate Profits Q2 01 Q4 02 Q2 04 Q4 05 Q2 07 Q4 08 Q2 10 Q4 11 Q2 13 Q1 15 Corporate Profits, $tril. Solid Bank Balance Sheets Q2 01 Q4 02 Q2 04 Q4 05 Q2 07 Q4 08 Q2 10 Q4 11 Q2 13 Q1 15 Tier 1 capital ratio Source: Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, Cushman & Wakefield Research

6 Rent Growth: Who s Hot Office Asking Rents: 2015 Q3 over 2014 Q3, % Change 18% 16% 17% 14% 12% 10% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 2% 0% San Francisco Atlanta San Jose Denver Oakland Nashville Dallas Boston Phoenix Manhattan U.S. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

7 Denver s Office Sector Outlook Job Growth Forecast Total Nonfarm ,000 37,933 32,833 24,967 17, Absorption Forecast Historical Avg. = 1.2 msf CW Moody's Oxford Average Denver Metro 28% Office-using Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

8 Denver s Stunning Growth Trajectory Total Nonfarm Employment M 1.38M 855, Nearly the size of San Francisco Today (2.2 M) Source: BLS

9 Population and Office Supply Population MSF of Office Development 3,500, Population 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , MSF of Office Development

10 Office Building Deliveries Single Tenant and Multi Tenant MSF of Office Development

11 Supply Trends: Office Sector Denver Metro: Deliveries MSF Year Historical Average = 2.2M Source: CoStar, Cushman & Wakefield Research

12 Office Vacancy Remains Tight Denver Metro Vacancy 15% 14% 13% Historical Average = 13.2% 12% 9.9% 11% 10% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 2014 Q Q Q1 Source: CoStar, Cushman & Wakefield Research

13 Denver s Office Sector Trends Demand (Net Absorption) MSF Historical Avg. = 1.2 msf Net Absorption YTD 2015 Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

14 Denver Office Rent Trends Rent Growth, Yr./Yr Q3 15 Class A 5.5% 5.0% $31 $29 $27 $25 $23 $21 $19 $17 $15 Class B 5.0% 4.8% Q1 00 Q3 00 Q1 01 Q3 01 Q1 02 Q3 02 Q1 03 Q3 03 Q1 04 Q3 04 Q1 05 Q3 05 Q1 06 Q3 06 Q1 07 Q3 07 Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 12 Q3 12 Q1 13 Q3 13 Q1 14 Q3 14 Q1 15 Q3 15 Class A Class B Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

15 Historical and Projected Rent and Vacancy Trends Southeast Denver vs. Downtown Denver 25.00% $ % $ % 10.00% $30.00 $25.00 $20.00 SES Denver Vacancy Denver CBD Vacancy SES Denver Avg Rate Denver CBD Avg Rate 5.00% $ % $10.00

16 The Rent Gap $60 $50 $40 $/SF $30 $20 $10 $0 Upper CBD & Existing Buildings New Construction CBD & Lower CBD Suburban A Buildings Suburban TOD A Buildings

17 Large Blocks of Space They Are Old Metro Denver 100,000 SF and Larger Number of Properties

18 Construction Costs Forecast Yr./Yr. Percent Change. 8% 6% 4% 3.3% 4.0% 4.5% 2% 0% Source: ENR, Cushman & Wakefield Research

19 Downtown and Southeast Denver Projected Construction Costs Southeast Denver vs. Downtown Denver

20 Denver is NOT Houston Percent of Gross Metro Product Denver 6% Houston 17% Oil & Gas Other Mild Headwinds Only 6% of economy links to energy 96% of jobs created in Denver are in non-energy 20% of CBD leased to energy tenants Only 2.3 msf of office u/c Major Headwinds 17% of economy links to energy 51% of CBD leased to energy tenants 17 msf of office u/c Source: BEA, Cushman & Wakefield Research

21 Oil and Gas Occupancy Downtown Denver Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

22 Oil and Gas Sublease Space 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, Million RSF Vacant 3,000 Jobs RSF 800, , Subleases 400,000 9 Subleases 200,000 0 Jan Dec Sublease Space Plus "Shadow Space"

23 Where Will the Market Still be Hot? RiNo LoDo and Platte Valley Cherry Creek North SoBo to Gates Southeast TOD

24 Conclusions Vibrant, TOD/Amenity rich sites will capture the majority of office tenant demand and absorption going forward The emerging rent gap will widen Projected speculative office construction deliveries of 1-2 million SF per year during for Metro Denver will NOT exceed tenant demand Limited well located sites and increasing land/construction costs will further limit new supply Energy is the wild card and 2016 will be the swing year one way or the other The game is not over, it will just be a little less exciting

25 CU Real Estate Forum The Game is Still Going The Longest 7 th Inning Ever Presenter: Doug Wulf Monday, December 7, 2015

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