North American Timber Outlook: The Supply Overhang

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1 North American Timber Outlook: The Supply Overhang October 2016 Peter Barynin Principal Economist, Timber Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information

2 Presentation Outline Sawtimber 1. Price Forecast Highlights 2. Supply Risk Assessment Pulpwood 1. Price Forecast Highlights 2. Supply Risk Assessment Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 2

3 US Timber Outlook Through 2018 Sawtimber and pulpwood prices are expected to increase Sustained economic growth Further recovery in US housing Strong growth in mill output Improving profitability for lumber and plywood Canadian mountain pine beetle Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 3

4 US Dollars per MBF, Quarterly Gains in PNW Prices Prove Difficult to Maintain $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 Delivered Sawtimber Prices Compared West Coast Whitewood Southern Pine (Delivered) Southern Pine (Stumpage) $ * Assumes 7.5 tons per MBF Scribner for southern prices*. Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 4

5 Future Increases in Sawlog Prices Will Be Restrained Timber inventory is not a constraint to North American production US South US West Expanding growing stock inventories Weak Canadian dollar will unleash Eastern Canada Harvest demand will not fully recover Harvesting capacity concerns are fading No super surge in log exports from the South expected Sawtimber diverted back into domestic markets US West now a high-cost region for softwood lumber Declining share of US markets Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 5

6 Sawtimber Will See Some Revival $70 Southern Pine Stumpage US Dollars per Ton Nominal $900 Douglas-fir Delivered Logs US Dollars per MBF $60 Inflation-Adjusted (2015$) $800 $50 $700 $600 $40 $500 $30 $400 $ $ Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 8

7 Softwood Sawtimber Demand is Unlikely to Fully Recover Billion Board Feet 25 US South 14 US West (Inland and Coast) Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 7

8 US Sawtimber Supply/Demand Snapshot South and West Combined, BBF Int l ¼-inch 550 Operable Inventory 40 Harvest Demand Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 8

9 Age-Class Dynamics Will Change the Supply Potential SYP Managed Forests Five-Year Age Classes Million Acres, Matures in next five years! Becoming overmature Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 13

10 Harvest Ready Timber Keeps Ahead of Demand US SOUTH PINE SUPPLY (Cumulative for ) Roundwood from Pine Plantations (1) Acreage Stand Age Years 3.0 Acreage Maturing within 5 years Million Acres Roundwood Yield at Final Harvest 97 Tons per Acre Total 880 Million Tons Roundwood from Other Sources Thinnings 225 Natural Stands Million Tons Roundwood from All Sources 1430 Million Tons Roundwood from All Sources per Year 286 Million Tons Averages 73% utilization Note: Data includes all wood fiber sourced from forests (1) RISI estimate of area available for commercial production 50 0 Annual Supply Annual Demand Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 13

11 Potential for Global Sawlog Production to Increase Softwood Sawlog Production, Million Cubic Meters per Year 400 North America 160 Western Europe 90 Russia 30 New Zealand Source: RISI Global Wood Fiber Database Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 11

12 US Dollars per Cubic Meter Global Softwood Sawlog Prices are the Lowest in 30 Years $95 $90 $85 $80 $75 $70 $65 $60 $55 Nominal Real (2015$) $ Note: Global average price calculated as weighted average of all softwood sawlog production and delivered prices. Real prices calculated using the US producer price deflator. Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 12

13 Real Stumpage Price (2015$/Ton) US South Sawtimber Supply Curve with Forecast $65 $60 $55 $50 $45 Resistance 2000 to 2007 $40 $ to 2015 Support $30 $25 $20 Forecast ( ) Stumpage Removals (Million GST) Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information

14 Pulpwood Prices: Renewed Harvest Demand and New Supply Dynamics Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 14

15 US Dollars per Ton US South Pulpwood Prices Are Ratcheting Up $12 $11 Softwood Stumpage Three-year average $10 $9 $8 $7 $ e Note: 2016 average of first and second quarter Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 15

16 Pulpwood, US Dollars per Ton Sawtimber, US Dollars per MBF US South Hardwood Stumpage Has Broken From Trend $13 $12 $11 $10 $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $ $300 $280 $260 $240 $220 $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 16

17 US South Log Price Spreads: A Return to the 1980s 2.75 Ratio: Delivered Sawtimber over Pulpwood Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved. 17

18 Pulpwood Prices Feel the Pressure of Escalating Demand Harvests will surpass record levels Factors in expanding chip production OSB output recovers within next two years Wood pellet capacity start-ups Supplies expand, but at a slow rate Boost from come-along wood Declining areas available for thinning Contracting hardwood resource Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 5 Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 18

19 US South Pulpwood Prices Dollars per Ton $12 Stumpage $21 Harvest and Delivery Costs $11 Hardwood Softwood $20 Softwood $10 $19 $9 $18 $8 $17 $7 $16 $ $ Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 19

20 Million Tons US South Pine Pulpwood Production Bioenergy OSB Pulp Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 20

21 Age-Class Area Dynamics Subtract from Thinnings 7.0 SYP Managed Forests Five-Year Age Classes Million Acres, Now nearly thinned out? Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 21

22 Million m³ per Year SYP Pulpwood Thinning Supplies Are Unlikely to Be Sustained 60 US South Plantation Pulpwood Thinning Volumes Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 22

23 Billion Short Tons A 27% Decline in Hardwood Demand Was Not Enough to Stabilize Hardwood Inventories 6.0 US Operable Hardwood Growing Stock Inventory Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 23

24 US South Pulpwood Heat Map Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 5 Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 24

25 Dollars per Ton Dollars per Ton US Delivered Pulpwood by Region $55 $50 $45 Softwood Softwood North Central Northeast $55 $50 $45 Hardwood $40 $35 $30 $25 $ $40 $35 $30 $25 $ Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 25

26 US Dollars per Bone Dry Ton We Never Expected the West Coast Chip Rally to Be Maintained $160 US West Coast Chip Export Prices $140 $120 $100 $80 $ Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved. 26

27 Timber Take Home Points Wood costs are rising Timber inventory is not a constraint to North American softwood lumber production Pulpwood prices maintain gains achieved since 2011 Downside risk to the timber price forecast Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 27

28 Recently Released Timber Products Southern Pulpwood Study World Wood Fiber and Forest Product Database February 2016 North American Timber Forecast Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 36

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