North American Timber Outlook: The Supply Overhang
|
|
- John Webster
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 North American Timber Outlook: The Supply Overhang October 2016 Peter Barynin Principal Economist, Timber Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
2 Presentation Outline Sawtimber 1. Price Forecast Highlights 2. Supply Risk Assessment Pulpwood 1. Price Forecast Highlights 2. Supply Risk Assessment Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 2
3 US Timber Outlook Through 2018 Sawtimber and pulpwood prices are expected to increase Sustained economic growth Further recovery in US housing Strong growth in mill output Improving profitability for lumber and plywood Canadian mountain pine beetle Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 3
4 US Dollars per MBF, Quarterly Gains in PNW Prices Prove Difficult to Maintain $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 Delivered Sawtimber Prices Compared West Coast Whitewood Southern Pine (Delivered) Southern Pine (Stumpage) $ * Assumes 7.5 tons per MBF Scribner for southern prices*. Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 4
5 Future Increases in Sawlog Prices Will Be Restrained Timber inventory is not a constraint to North American production US South US West Expanding growing stock inventories Weak Canadian dollar will unleash Eastern Canada Harvest demand will not fully recover Harvesting capacity concerns are fading No super surge in log exports from the South expected Sawtimber diverted back into domestic markets US West now a high-cost region for softwood lumber Declining share of US markets Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 5
6 Sawtimber Will See Some Revival $70 Southern Pine Stumpage US Dollars per Ton Nominal $900 Douglas-fir Delivered Logs US Dollars per MBF $60 Inflation-Adjusted (2015$) $800 $50 $700 $600 $40 $500 $30 $400 $ $ Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 8
7 Softwood Sawtimber Demand is Unlikely to Fully Recover Billion Board Feet 25 US South 14 US West (Inland and Coast) Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 7
8 US Sawtimber Supply/Demand Snapshot South and West Combined, BBF Int l ¼-inch 550 Operable Inventory 40 Harvest Demand Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 8
9 Age-Class Dynamics Will Change the Supply Potential SYP Managed Forests Five-Year Age Classes Million Acres, Matures in next five years! Becoming overmature Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 13
10 Harvest Ready Timber Keeps Ahead of Demand US SOUTH PINE SUPPLY (Cumulative for ) Roundwood from Pine Plantations (1) Acreage Stand Age Years 3.0 Acreage Maturing within 5 years Million Acres Roundwood Yield at Final Harvest 97 Tons per Acre Total 880 Million Tons Roundwood from Other Sources Thinnings 225 Natural Stands Million Tons Roundwood from All Sources 1430 Million Tons Roundwood from All Sources per Year 286 Million Tons Averages 73% utilization Note: Data includes all wood fiber sourced from forests (1) RISI estimate of area available for commercial production 50 0 Annual Supply Annual Demand Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 13
11 Potential for Global Sawlog Production to Increase Softwood Sawlog Production, Million Cubic Meters per Year 400 North America 160 Western Europe 90 Russia 30 New Zealand Source: RISI Global Wood Fiber Database Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 11
12 US Dollars per Cubic Meter Global Softwood Sawlog Prices are the Lowest in 30 Years $95 $90 $85 $80 $75 $70 $65 $60 $55 Nominal Real (2015$) $ Note: Global average price calculated as weighted average of all softwood sawlog production and delivered prices. Real prices calculated using the US producer price deflator. Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 12
13 Real Stumpage Price (2015$/Ton) US South Sawtimber Supply Curve with Forecast $65 $60 $55 $50 $45 Resistance 2000 to 2007 $40 $ to 2015 Support $30 $25 $20 Forecast ( ) Stumpage Removals (Million GST) Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
14 Pulpwood Prices: Renewed Harvest Demand and New Supply Dynamics Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 14
15 US Dollars per Ton US South Pulpwood Prices Are Ratcheting Up $12 $11 Softwood Stumpage Three-year average $10 $9 $8 $7 $ e Note: 2016 average of first and second quarter Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 15
16 Pulpwood, US Dollars per Ton Sawtimber, US Dollars per MBF US South Hardwood Stumpage Has Broken From Trend $13 $12 $11 $10 $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $ $300 $280 $260 $240 $220 $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 16
17 US South Log Price Spreads: A Return to the 1980s 2.75 Ratio: Delivered Sawtimber over Pulpwood Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved. 17
18 Pulpwood Prices Feel the Pressure of Escalating Demand Harvests will surpass record levels Factors in expanding chip production OSB output recovers within next two years Wood pellet capacity start-ups Supplies expand, but at a slow rate Boost from come-along wood Declining areas available for thinning Contracting hardwood resource Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 5 Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 18
19 US South Pulpwood Prices Dollars per Ton $12 Stumpage $21 Harvest and Delivery Costs $11 Hardwood Softwood $20 Softwood $10 $19 $9 $18 $8 $17 $7 $16 $ $ Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 19
20 Million Tons US South Pine Pulpwood Production Bioenergy OSB Pulp Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 20
21 Age-Class Area Dynamics Subtract from Thinnings 7.0 SYP Managed Forests Five-Year Age Classes Million Acres, Now nearly thinned out? Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 21
22 Million m³ per Year SYP Pulpwood Thinning Supplies Are Unlikely to Be Sustained 60 US South Plantation Pulpwood Thinning Volumes Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 22
23 Billion Short Tons A 27% Decline in Hardwood Demand Was Not Enough to Stabilize Hardwood Inventories 6.0 US Operable Hardwood Growing Stock Inventory Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 23
24 US South Pulpwood Heat Map Copyright 2015 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 5 Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 24
25 Dollars per Ton Dollars per Ton US Delivered Pulpwood by Region $55 $50 $45 Softwood Softwood North Central Northeast $55 $50 $45 Hardwood $40 $35 $30 $25 $ $40 $35 $30 $25 $ Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 25
26 US Dollars per Bone Dry Ton We Never Expected the West Coast Chip Rally to Be Maintained $160 US West Coast Chip Export Prices $140 $120 $100 $80 $ Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved. 26
27 Timber Take Home Points Wood costs are rising Timber inventory is not a constraint to North American softwood lumber production Pulpwood prices maintain gains achieved since 2011 Downside risk to the timber price forecast Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 27
28 Recently Released Timber Products Southern Pulpwood Study World Wood Fiber and Forest Product Database February 2016 North American Timber Forecast Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 36
Outlook for the North American Softwood Lumber Industry
Outlook for the North American Softwood Lumber Industry North American Conference October 2017 David Fortin Director, Wood Products Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information Quick Bio Master s
More informationImpending Shortage of NA Lumber Capacity: Implications for U.S. Southern Industry
Impending Shortage of NA Lumber Capacity: Implications for U.S. Southern Industry Alabama Forest Owners Association Webinar Dr. Lynn O. Michaelis, Partner January 15, 2014 2 Purpose of Today s Presentation
More information2014 Public Stumpage Price Review and Price Indices
May 1, 2015 M I N N E S O T A 2014 Public Stumpage Price Review and Price Indices Download from Minnesota DNR Forestry at URL: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/timbersales/stumpage.html Highlights In
More information2016 Minnesota Public Stumpage Price Review and Price Indices
2016 Minnesota Public Stumpage Price Review and Price Indices June 6, 2017 Download at: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/timbersales/stumpage.html Highlights In 2016, all species and products stumpage
More informationOverview of market trends through 2005 Forecasts for 2006 and 2007
Overview of market trends through 2005 Forecasts for 2006 and 2007 Ed Pepke, Ph.D. Forest Products Marketing Specialist Food and Agricultural Organization & UN Economic Commission for Europe Geneva, Switzerland
More information2008 Public Stumpage Price Review and Price Indexes
March 11, 2009 M I N N E S O T A 2008 Public Stumpage Price Review and Price Indexes Highlights In 2008, a total 1.85 million cords of pulpwood and bolts were sold by Minnesota s public agencies including
More informationOutlook for Global Recovered Paper Markets
Outlook for Global Recovered Paper Markets Latin American Conference August 2016 Kurt Schaefer VP, Fiber Hannah Zhao Senior Economist, Recovered Paper Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
More informationGulf Container Trade Outlook for 2017 and Beyond
Gulf Container Trade Outlook for 2017 and Beyond Houston, May 15, 2017 Mario.Moreno@ihsmarkit.com Agenda Gulf coast imports: top sourcing regions, fastest growing commodities, demand drivers and outlook.
More informationMarket Situation and Outlook Trämarknaden i Karlstad,
Market Situation and Outlook Trämarknaden i Karlstad, 2016-11-17 Magnus Niklasson, Swedish Forest Industries Federation Last years message: We were worried about China and Egypt and believed the US and
More informationParticleboard, MDF and EWP
Particleboard, MDF and EWP North American Market Updates for 2018 RISI North American Conference October 10, 2018 Steven Honeyman Economist, Wood Products Overview Particleboard Will new capacity create
More informationGlobal Containerboard Outlook
Global Containerboard Outlook With a focus on the Asian market RISI Asian Conference May 2017 Ken Waghorne VP, Global Packaging Ken Waghorne VP Global Packaging kwaghorne@risi.com One of the original Resource
More informationEconomic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits
ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Economic Outlook for Canada: Economy Confronting Capacity Limits Presentation to the Responsible Distribution Canada 32 nd Annual General Meeting May 29, 2018 Paul Ferley (Assistant
More informationGlobal Boxboard Market Review
Global Boxboard Market Review Sailing In A World Of Volatility And Uncertainty European Conference March 2018 Alejandro Mata Senior Economist, European Forest Products Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary
More informationVermont Economic Conference:
Vermont Economic Conference: Mapping Our Economic Future Michael Dolega Director & Senior Economist TD Economics January 5 2018 Summary Global economy gathering speed, leading to another upgrade in outlook.
More informationFinland s sawmilling industry
Finland s sawmilling industry Howard Sidney-Wilmot Stora Enso - Sales Director UK, Ireland & Benelux September 2015 Stora Enso Wood Products 13/10/2015 1 Finland s forest products 19bn total value 11bn
More informationCanadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States?
Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist Dale Orr Canadian Macroeconomic Services Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.
More informationOutlook for the World Paper Grade Pulp Market
Outlook for the World Paper Grade Pulp Market Amsterdam, Netherlands March 2017 Kurt Schaefer Vice President, Fiber For Further Details and Analysis: World Pulp & Recovered Paper 5-Year and 15-Year Forecasts
More informationGlobal economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack
Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum Canada leading the pack Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com September 2017 Brighter global outlook gains traction
More informationSteel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons. John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009
Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009 The U.S. Recession Is Bottoming Out This recession has been the most severe of the postwar
More informationAgriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed
Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed March 3, 2016 Riverside, Iowa David Oppedahl Senior Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org Federal Reserve System Twelve District
More informationExports of Roundwood and Sawnwood from Russia and Effects on Market Competition
Exports of Roundwood and Sawnwood from Russia and Effects on Market Competition Finnish Forest Research Institute: Antti Mutanen, Jari Viitanen & Riitta Hänninen Pellervo Economic Research Institute: Ritva
More informationThe Auction Market In 2015 & 2016 Review & Forecast. Dr. Ira Silver NAAA Economist
The Auction Market In 2015 & 2016 Review & Forecast Dr. Ira Silver NAAA Economist silver@naaa.com Agenda Economic conditions Economic outlook Light vehicle sales Light vehicle sales outlook NAAA 2015 Annual
More informationGlobal Containerboard Outlook
Global Containerboard Outlook European Conference March 2018 Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper Packaging Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper
More informationRISI LATIN AMERICAN CONFERENCE. (São Paulo, 16 August 2016) The Latin American Economy: Some Successes, Many Disappointments
RISI LATIN AMERICAN CONFERENCE (São Paulo, 16 August 2016) The Latin American Economy: Some Successes, Many Disappointments Andrea Boltho Magdalen College University of Oxford and Oxford Economics GDP
More informationBC Pension Forum. Economic Outlook. Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager
BC Pension Forum Economic Outlook Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager 1694 1704 1713 1723 1732 1741 1751 1760 1770 1779 1788 1798 1807 1817 1826 1836 1845 1854 1864 1873 1883 1892 1901 1911
More informationGlobal Graphic Paper Outlook
Global Graphic Paper Outlook Declining Demand and Strong Dollar Spark Trade Issues Latin American Conference Renaissance Hotel, São Paulo August 14 17, 2017 John Maine Vice President, World Graphic Paper
More informationGlobal Containerboard Outlook
Global Containerboard Outlook With a focus on the European market RISI European Conference March 2017 Gleb Sinavskis Associate Economist, European Paper Packaging Gleb Sinavskis Associate Economist, European
More informationAgriculture Outlook. Rich Pottorff Doane Advisory Services
Agriculture Outlook Rich Pottorff Doane Advisory Services General Outline An overview of U.S. crop markets Corn, soybeans, wheat & cotton Some factors shaping the outlook World Ag Situation Conclusions
More informationTrade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies
Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Marine Terminal Management Training Program October 15, 2007 Long Beach, CA Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. 1 Agenda Economic
More informationGlobal economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty. Canada headed for another year of solid growth
ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty Canada headed for another year of solid growth Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919
More informationRebalancing Global Crude Flows
Rebalancing Global Crude Flows John R. Auers Executive Vice President AIChE Dallas Chapter April Section Meeting April 28, 2015 Page 1 TM&C North American Crude & Condensate Outlook TM&C began publishing
More informationU.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013
U.S. Overview Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 Uneven global economic recovery Annual real GDP growth projections (%) Projections 2013 2014 World 3.1 3.1 3.8 United States 2.2 1.7 2.7 Euro Area
More informationLivestock and Dairy Market Outlook
Livestock and Dairy Market Outlook August 9, 2018 Missouri Farm Bureau Commodity Conference Dr. Scott Brown Agricultural Markets and Policy Division of Applied Social Sciences brownsc@missouri.edu http://amap.missouri.edu
More informationThe Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies
The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist, PAGI Group, JLL (Port, Airport & Global Infrastructure) Agenda Where are we in the cycle? What are the barriers
More informationThe World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review
The World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review Michael Keenan Harbor Planning and Economic Analyst Port of Los Angeles October 5, 2009 Review of 2007 Container Trade
More informationSulphur Market Outlook
Sulphur Market Outlook Meena Chauhan Head of Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Integer Research The Fertilizer Institute Outlook and Technology conference Fort Lauderdale, Florida Founded in 2002, Integer Research
More informationAn Agricultural Update
An Agricultural Update May 22, 2018 Indianapolis, IN David Oppedahl Senior Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org Personal consumption shares 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1950 1960 1970 1980
More informationCorn Outlook. December, 2017
Corn Outlook December, 2017 Corn Outlook December, 2017 Historical Price Reference Fundamental Backdrop Seasonal Tendency Summary Commodity & Ingredient Hedging 2 Historical Price Reference Where are Corn
More informationAgricultural Outlook: Rebalancing U.S. Agriculture
Agricultural Outlook: Rebalancing U.S. Agriculture Michael J. Swanson Ph.D. Agricultural Economist January 2018 2018 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use. The U.S. Ag Sector renormalizes!
More informationBob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013
Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends September 10, 2013 The Freight Economy Washington continues to be a headwind on economic
More informationEconomic performance of the airline industry end-2017 update
Economic performance of the airline industry end-2017 update December 2017 Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1 City-pair connections
More information2017/18 Corn Outlook
217/18 Corn Outlook 217 Ag Econ In service Training Dr. S. Aaron Smith, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee https://ag.tennessee.edu/arec/pages/cropeconomics.aspx
More informationRebalancing Global Crude Flows
Rebalancing Global Crude Flows John Mayes Director of Special Studies AFPM Annual Meeting San Antonio, Texas March 24, 2015 TM&C North American Crude & Condensate Outlook TM&C publishes North American
More informationCorn Outlook. February, 2018
Corn Outlook February, 2018 Corn Outlook February 2018 Historical Price Reference Fundamental Backdrop Seasonal Tendency Summary 2 Historical Price Reference Where are Corn Prices Currently, And Where
More informationBrisbane Hotel Performance
Global Hospitality Consulting 1 Brisbane Hotel Performance We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them (Albert Einstein) If we keep doing what we're doing, we're
More informationFuture Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013
1 Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 June 2012 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist Summary Higher economic growth in 2013, possible
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September 29 2006 Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service 781-301-9125 patrick.newport@globalinsight.com
More informationGlobal Graphic Paper Outlook
Global Graphic Paper Outlook Declining Demand and Strong Dollar Spark Trade Issues North American Conference Seaport Hotel, Boston October 16 18, 2017 John Maine Vice President, World Graphic Paper John
More informationWeather, Supply and the Turkish Flour Miller - The Outlook for World Wheat Prices 2018/19
Weather, Supply and the Turkish Flour Miller - The Outlook for World Wheat Prices 2018/19 v Daniel W Basse President AgResource Chicago, IL January 2016 Daniel W Basse Daniel Basse Daniel President W Basse
More informationCargo outlook Brian Pearce Chief Economist. 13 December 2018
Cargo outlook 2019 Brian Pearce Chief Economist 13 December 2018 1 Cargo revenue contribution stabilizing 2 % total revenues 82% 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 64% 62% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
More informationTelling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017
Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: How have the decline in oil prices and a weaker Canadian dollar affected Canada s economy? www.statcan.gc.ca Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards
More informationMIDDLE EAST ENERGY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK IRAQ ENERGY FORUM 2017
MIDDLE EAST ENERGY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK IRAQ ENERGY FORUM 2017 2017 1 OVERVIEW OF GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS 2 Energy exports/imports (million tonnes) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
More informationAlaska s Natural Resource Commodities: A 10-Year Outlook
Alaska Resources Development Council November 14-15, 2018 Alaska s Natural Resource Commodities: A 10-Year Outlook David R. Hammond, Ph.D. Principal Mineral Economist Hammond International Group Commodities
More informationPaul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009
Economic Outlook and Ports Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009 The Outlook for Trade Depends on Goods Demand Integrated international supply-chains offer efficiencies
More informationThe Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division
The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six plus years of moderate growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half
More informationFriday, May 22, NAR Convention
NAR Convention 5-14-09 NAR Convention 5-14-09 Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist NAR Marketing Tips!Provide Market Data to buyers!forbes Buyer Survey: Now good time to buy home!best Banner Ads: 1. Has Market
More informationFutureMetrics. Global Pellet Market Outlook
FutureMetrics Global Pellet Market Outlook Canadian Bioeconomy Conference June 7, 2018 Seth Walker sethwalker@futuremetrics.com www.futuremetrics.com @Bioeconomist FutureMetrics Intelligent Analysis, Market
More informationTexas Economic Outlook: Recovery in 2010 Keith Phillips Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas San Antonio Office
Texas Economic Outlook: Recovery in 2010 Keith Phillips Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas San Antonio Office The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the author and do not necessarily
More informationOutlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2012 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA
Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2012 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington, D.C. February 24, 2012 Situation Facing Livestock
More informationOutlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2011
Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2011 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington, D.C. February 25, 2011 Situation Facing Livestock
More informationA Primer on Factors Affecting Farmland Values
A Primer on Factors Affecting Farmland Values Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago David Oppedahl Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org The economy hit bottom in June 2009, with hesitant
More informationEconomic Update and Outlook
Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter November 15, 2012 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: Global, U.S., and Canadian economic conditions Canada economic and
More informationSoybean, Corn, & Wheat Outlook Middle Tennessee Grain Conference
Soybean, Corn, & Wheat Outlook Middle Tennessee Grain Conference S. Aaron Smith, Crop Marketing Specialist, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee
More informationSoybean, Corn, & Wheat Outlook Middle Tennessee Grain Conference
Soybean, Corn, & Wheat Outlook Middle Tennessee Grain Conference S. Aaron Smith, Crop Marketing Specialist, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee
More informationThe Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch January 2017
The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch January 2017 Image from http://peoplesguidetohouston.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/
More informationRaymond James Institutional Investors Conference March 8, 2016
Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference March 8, 2016 Notices Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.
More informationMarket Report Series Oil 2017
Market Report Series Oil 2017 Neil Atkinson, Head Oil Industry & Markets Division, IEA International Institute for Strategic Studies, Bahrain, 17 September 2017 Oil demand continues to grow but at a slower
More informationSteel Market Outlook. AM/NS Calvert
Steel Market Outlook AM/NS Calvert Agenda Economic indicators Key steel consuming markets and forecasted demand Steel consumptions trends Global steel markets and raw materials Comments on trade 1 U.S.
More information2018 Soybean, Corn, & Wheat Outlook KY and TN Grain Conference
2018 Soybean, Corn, & Wheat Outlook KY and TN Grain Conference S. Aaron Smith, Crop Marketing Specialist, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee
More informationFishery. Harvesting. Snow Crab Professional Fish Harvesters Certification Board
Fishery T he Newfoundland and Labrador fishery faced several challenges in 8, including continued competition from low-cost producers, as well as high fuel costs and unfavourable exchange rates for most
More informationINSTITUTIONAL PRESENTATION
INSTITUTIONAL PRESENTATION 2Q16 KLBN11 DEZEMBRO DE 2015 KLBN11 / KLBAY DISCLAIMER The statements contained in this presentation related to the business outlook, operating and financial projections, and
More informationUS Economic Activity
US Economic Activity GDP has been in positive territory for seven consecutive quarters, and the advance estimate shows the US economy grew at a 1.0% rate in the fourth quarter 2015. US Economic Activity
More informationCargo outlook Brian Pearce Chief Economist. 13 December 2018
Cargo outlook 2019 Brian Pearce Chief Economist 13 December 2018 % total revenues % total revenues Cargo revenue contribution stabilizing 2 82% 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 64% 62% Share of airlines'
More information2016 Grains & Oilseeds Outlook. The global outlook remains positive. 12/7/2015. Matthew C. Roberts
12/7/215 216 Grains & Oilseeds Outlook Matthew C. Roberts Roberts.628@osu.edu The global outlook remains positive. www.matthewcroberts.com 2 www.matthewcroberts.com 3 www.matthewcroberts.com 4 www.matthewcroberts.com
More informationCalifornia Agriculture and Global Challenges: Resources Prices and Prospects 2012 California Ag Summit January 27, 2012
California Agriculture and Global Challenges: Resources Prices and Prospects 2012 California Ag Summit uary 27, 2012 Daniel A. Sumner University of California Agricultural Issues Center Outline and Main
More informationNorth American Forging Shipment Forecast (Using FIA bookings information through December 2013)
North American Forging Shipment Forecast 2014-2018 (Using FIA bookings information through December 2013) Percent Change Year Ago Best leading indicator combination for impression die bookings used to
More informationNYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference
NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference Industry Update: The Statistical Reality Presented by Randy Smith, Chairman and Founder, STR Global Lodging Performance Global Regions Occupancy
More informationOil Markets. Kevin Lindemer Executive Managing Director, Energy Markets Group
Oil Markets Kevin Lindemer Executive Managing Director, Energy Markets Group 2008 Outlook Downside risks in demand are increasing due to weaker economic outlook Upside supply risks still present but balance
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Mark A. Wynne Vice President & Associate Director of Research Director, Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Presentation to Vistas Conference
More informationGlobal Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle
Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle Michael Swanson Ph.D. Wells Fargo October 2017 Everything is connected we just don t see how. Connection corollary: Nothing natural moves in a straight
More informationThe Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch June 2016
The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch June 2016 Image from http://peoplesguidetohouston.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/
More informationOutline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook
2017 International Economic Outlook Everett Grant Research Economist Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas October 2017 The views expressed are those of the author and
More informationMontana Manufacturing: 2015 Outlook. Todd A. Morgan, CF
Montana Manufacturing: 2015 Outlook Todd A. Morgan, CF Montana & U.S. Manufacturing Employment 1990-2014 MT workers 28,000 US workers 21,000,000 24,000 18,000,000 20,000 15,000,000 Montana U.S. 16,000
More informationTrade and Economic Trends
Trade and Economic Trends Marine Terminal Management Training Program Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Commerce & Transportation IHS Global Insight Long Beach, CA September 21, 2009 The Global Recession
More informationShifting International Trade Routes A National Economic Outlook. February 1, 2011
Shifting International Trade Routes A National Economic Outlook February 1, 2011 Today s Objectives Endeavor to provide a broad context for today s program by briefly touching on: Some good news Some not
More informationCurves On The Road Ahead
Curves On The Road Ahead Light Vehicle Market Outlook November 2018 Charles Chesbrough Senior Economist A g e n d a Economic Outlook and New Vehicle Sales Affordability Threat and the Used Vehicle Market
More informationIssues Driving the Outlook for Specialty Crops December 3, 2012
Issues Driving the Outlook for Specialty Crops December 3, 2012 Daniel A. Sumner University of California Agricultural Issues Center, and UC Davis Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics Core
More informationCanada s economy on track for a solid 2018 although policy uncertainty lingers
Canada s economy on track for a solid 2018 although policy uncertainty lingers Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com March 2018 Canada is facing a challenging
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist, IHS Global Insight FTA Revenue Estimation & Tax Research Conference Charleston, West Virginia October 17, 2011 What Has Happened to the Recovery?
More information2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE
2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE January 14, 2019 Scott Colbert, CFA Executive Vice President Director of Fixed Income & Chief Economist scott.colbert@commercebank.com GLOBAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS
More informationAs Good as it Gets. The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International
As Good as it Gets The Aging Expansion Powers On... but for How Much Longer? Andrew J. Nelson Chief Economist USA, Colliers International #NMHCstudent @ApartmentWire Ten Years After: A Full if Imperfect
More informationOutlook for airline markets and industry performance
Outlook for airline markets and industry performance June 2016 Brian Pearce Chief Economist International Air Transport Association % change over previous year Confidence index. 50 = no change The already
More informationImpacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel. 29 June 2007 John Walker
Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel 29 June 2007 John Walker jwalker@oxfordeconomics.com Oxford Economics Founded in 1981 Over 300 clients including blue chip companies and government
More informationCommodity Market Outlook: Corn, Forage, Wheat & Cattle
Commodity Market Outlook: Corn, Forage, Wheat & Cattle Stephen R. Koontz Professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado State University Stephen.Koontz@ColoState.Edu
More informationThe Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division
The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half Full
More informationReading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond
Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Wednesday, April 28, 2010; 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator: Maria Bartiromo, Anchor, CNBC's Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo Speakers: Nick Calamos, President
More information2019 Global Travel Forecast: Air, Hotel and Ground Prices
2019 Global Travel Forecast: Air, Hotel and Ground Prices Methodology 28 countries and 10 US cities Airlines, Hotel, Rental Car Forecast in USD, guidelines on currency exchange forecast Forecast projections
More informationYear Trend Cycle Seasonal Random Actual
Department Of Economics, University Of Ghana Level 300, Econs 305: Applied Statistics for Economist Lecturer: Dr. D. K. Twerefou Problem Set 3: Time series analysis 1. The table below provides the components
More informationBob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update.
Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update February 26, 2013 The Worst Recession Since the Great Depression 0% Loss from Peak
More informationUSDA Grains & Oilseeds Outlook
USDA Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 3 rd Ukrainian Grain Congress 2012 Edward W. Allen U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service 202-694-5288 ewallen@ers.usda.gov U.S. Producer Prices Are High
More information