Climate and Floods In Myanmar. Tin Yi (Assistant Director) DMH MYANMAR

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1 Climate and Floods In Myanmar Tin Yi (Assistant Director) DMH MYANMAR

Lat 9 30 to 28 30 N, Long - 92 10 to 101 11 E

2 Lat 9 30 to N, Long to E Neighbouring countries India, Bangladesh, China, Laos, Thailand,

3 N INDIA CHINA Department of Meteorology and Hydrology ANDARMAN SEA THAILAND LAOS Meteorological Station- 63 Hydrological station - 30 Met & Hydro station - 39 Agro-Met Stations - 18 Aviation-Met station - 8 Seismological station

5 Monsoon Onset in Northern Myanmar Areas During ( ) ( 1992) (1977) Onset Days Nothern Onset Days NORMAL 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Nothern Onset Days) Yers - Climate change impact on onset criteria appreciable shift to late.since1977 to 2008 all year shown late advanced monsoon about 7 to 12 days later than normal.

6 ANNUAL MONSOON WITHDRAWAL DATES OF SOUTHERN MYANMAR DURING ( ) y = x (1976) withdrawal days 269(1991) Southern mean Linear (Southern) 264(2000) years - Monsoon withdrawal dates are shift to early. - Since1989 to 2008 (except 1993) all year shown early withdrawal monsoon about 15 to 25 days early than normal.

7 Duration of Monsoon since Onset in Northern till Withdrawl from Southern Myanmar Areas( ) Nothern to Southen Mean 150 Linear (Nothern to Southen) (1977) Duration(days) (1979)102 (2004)100 years -The duration of monsoon seasons were shorter than normal starting from The late onset and the early withdrawal of monsoon are responsible for the shorter duration of monsoon seasons

8 Monsoon Depression in the Bay of Bengal During y = x frequency Linear (frequency) year frequency

9 ANNUAL MONSOON STRENGTH INDICES OF MYANMAR DURING y = x Monsoon Indices Linear (Monsoon Indices) 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Monsoon Indices) The years 1951, 1953,1957,1977,1979,1996 and 1998 were weak monsoon years, where the impact of EL Nino were evident in most years. YEARS

10 PERCENTAGE DEPARTURE OF ANNUAL AREA AVERAGE RAINFALLS OVER MYANMAR DURING THE PERIOD PERCENTAE DEPARTURE Percentage Departures Linear (Percentage Departures) 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Percentage Departures) WETTER PHASE 1979 DRIER PHASE YEARS A phase change of decreasing in annual rainfall occurred starting from 1977 during the period

11 ANNUAL PERCENTAGE DEPARTURES OF MONSOON RAINFALLS DURING y = x PERCENTAE DEPARTURRES MEAN Rainfall Departures Linear (Series1) 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Series1) YEARS - The monsoon rainfall showed a continuous negative anomalies in each of every year from 1981 to 1998 except in 1990.

12 ANNUAL PERCENTAGE DEPARTURES OF TIM E AND AREA AVERAGED HEAT INDICES OF MYANMAR DURING THE PERIOD COOLER PHASE WARMER PHASE DEPARTURES (% 2 0 MEAN Heat Indices 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Heat Indices) Linear (Heat Indices) YEARS Lwin.2001

13 ANNUAL DROUGHT INDICES OF MYANMAR DURING y = x DROUGHT INDEX Drought Index 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Drought Index) Linear (Drought Index) YEARS The drought anomaly also showed positives anomalies in most years of 1980s and 1990s.

(1960-1969) Mean SSTA (2000-2008) Mean SSTA www.

14 ( ) Mean SSTA ( ) Mean SSTA May -1st Dekad May -1 st Dekad

Severe Cyclonic Storms in Bay of Bengal(2006-2009) Severe Cyclonic Storm

Global warming is forcing ocean temperatures to rise, which is causing

- Higher ocean temperatures in the top couple of hundred feet of the

15 Severe Cyclonic Storms in Bay of Bengal( ) Severe Cyclonic Storm MALA, April, 2006 Severe Cyclonic Storm AKASH, 2-15 May, Global warming is forcing ocean temperatures to rise, which is causing storms, including cyclones and hurricanes, to intensify. - Higher ocean temperatures in the top couple of hundred feet of the ocean, which drives convection energy and moisture into these storms and makes them more powerful. Severe Cyclonic Storm NARGIS, 27 April 3 May, 2008 Cyclonic Storm AILA, May, Strong correlation between intense storms and global warming.

16 Climate change in Myanmar The annual onset dates of monsoon into Myanmar during indicates that monsoon onsets were late starting from Starting from1989 ( except 1993), the withdrawal of monsoon from Myanmar were early than normal. The duration of monsoon seasons were shorter than normal starting from 1989 The late onset and the early withdrawal of monsoon are responsible for the shorter duration of monsoon seasons. The trend analysis of Monsoon depression ( )is the falling trend. The annual frequency of monsoon depressions becomes significantly less in 1980s and 1990s. After 2003, the frequency becomes more. The monsoon strength were weak in 1951, 1953,1957,1977,1979,1996 and 1998, where the impact of EL Nino were evident in most years. The normal monsoon breaks were disappeared in almost every years during The break situation returned again in 1998, it however disappeared again from 1999 to 2006 and returned again in 2007 and The monsoon rainfall showed a continuous negative anomalies in each of every year from 1981 to 1998 except in The drought anomaly also showed positives anomalies in most years of 1980s and 1990s. Sea surface temperature rise, which is causing storms, including cyclones and hurricanes, to intensify.

Myanmar Average Annual Water Resources Potential by River Basin River Basin Number Name of the Principal River Basin Drainage Area (Thousand sq-km) Surface Water (Km 3 /annum) Ground water (Km 3

17 Myanmar Average Annual Water Resources Potential by River Basin River Basin Number Name of the Principal River Basin Drainage Area (Thousand sq-km) Surface Water (Km 3 /annum) Ground water (Km 3 /annum) 1 Chindwin Upper Ayeyarwady Lower Ayeyarwady Sittoung Rakhine Taninthayi Thanlwin Mekong Total

Station Mawlaik Kalewa Monywa Hsipaw Sagaing Mandalay Myitnge Nyaung U Chauk Minbu Magway Aunglan

18 N River Forecasting Stations Ayeyarwady - 12 Stations Hkamti Myitkyina Homalin Katha Bhamo Chindwin - 5 Stations Thanlwin - 1 Station Sittoung - 2 Stations Shwegyin - 1 Station Bago - 1 Station Mawlaik Kalewa Monywa Hsipaw Sagaing Mandalay Myitnge Nyaung U Chauk Minbu Magway Aunglan Pyay Taungoo Henzada Madauk Shwegyin Zaungtu Bago Hpa-an Dokehtawady - 2 Station ANDARMAN SEA

Ayeyarwady and Chindwin - Intense heavy rain due to pronounced monsoon trough persisting for at least 3 days over Northern Myanmar areas - Heavy rainfall due to cyclonic storm crossing Myanmar and

19 Ayeyarwady and Chindwin - Intense heavy rain due to pronounced monsoon trough persisting for at least 3 days over Northern Myanmar areas - Heavy rainfall due to cyclonic storm crossing Myanmar and Bangladesh coasts during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon Sittaung and Thanlwin - Mostly due to rainfall associated with low pressure waves (the remnants of typhoons and tropical storms of South China Sea) moving from east to west across the country Small rivers channels Streams in mountainous regions - Coastal Floods (Storm Surges) - Small River Floods (Flash Floods)

20 Severe Flood Years (Since 1966 ) River Highest Water Level Recorded at Year Total Stations above Danger Level Chindwin Homalin stations Ayeyarwady Chauk, Minbu, Aunglan, Pyay stations Chindwin Mawlaik stations Ayeyarwady Myitkyina, Katha stations Chindwin Hkamti stations Sittoung Shwegyin Chindwin Thanlwin Ayeyarwady Madauk Shwegyin Kalewa, Monywa Hpa-an Bhamo, Sagaing, Mandalay, Nyaung Oo, Magway stations stations stations

21 Flood Record in Myanmar (since 1966) Stations DangerLevel (cm) Max. WL (cm) Flood Duration above DL (m) Year Ayeyarwady Myitkyina days 12 Hrs Bhamo days 2 Hrs Katha days 6 Hrs Mandalay Days Sagaing Days 6 Hrs Nyaung Oo Days 12 Hrs Chauk Days 12 Hrs Minbu Days 12 Hrs Aunglan Days Pyay Days Hinthada Days 12 Hrs Chindwin Hkamti Days 6 Hrs Homalin Days 6 Hrs Mawlaik Days 12 Hrs Kalewa Day 12 Hrs Monywa Days 6 Hrs

22 Stations Flood Record in Myanmar (since 1966) DangerLevel (cm) Max. WL (cm) Flood Duration above DL (m) Year Sittoung Toungoo Days 18 Hrs Madauk Days Dokhtawady Hsipaw Hrs Myitnge Days 6 Hrs Shwegyin Shwegyin Days 12 Hrs Bago Bago Days 6 Hrs Thanlwin Hpaan Days

23 Percentage of Occurrence of Floods in Months and Flood Frequency along Ayeyarwady River Stations Monthly Flood Frequency(%) June July August Sept Oct Period Flood Frequency Flood Year Myitkyina 1(14%) 5(57%) 0 1(15%) 1(14%) in 43 yrs 7 in 43 yrs Bhamo 1(6%) 11(60%) 2(11%) 3(17%) 1(16%) in 41 yrs 13 in 41 yrs Katha 3(8%) 21(62%) 6(18%) 2(6%) 2(6%) in 43 yrs 22 in 43 yrs Mandalay 0 5(63%) 0 1(12%) 2(25%) in 33 yrs 6 in 33 yrs Sagaing 0 7(28%) 8(32%) 7(28%) 3(12%) in 43 yrs 20 in 43 yrs Nyaung Oo 0 14(33%) 13(31%) 10(24%) 5(12%) in 43 yrs 29 in 43 yrs Chauk 0 3(34%) 3(33%) 2(22%) 1(11%) in 36 yrs 9 in 36 yrs Minbu 0 9(24%) 15(38%) 11(28%) 4(10%) in 43 yrs 26 in 43 yrs Magway 0 7(37%) 5(26%) 5((26%) 2(11%) in 19 yrs 10 in 19 yrs Aunglan 0 3(21%) 5(36%) 6(43%) in 36 yrs 11 in 36 yrs Pyay 0 5(29%) 4(24%) 7(41%) 1(6%) in 43 yrs 15 in 43 yrs Hinthada 0 12(25%) 21(44%) 12(25%) 3(6%) in 42 yrs 26 in 42 yrs

24 Percentage of Occurrence of Floods in Months and Flood Frequency along Chindwin and other Rivers Stations Monthly Flood Frequency(%) June July August Sept Oct Chindwin River Period Flood Frequency Flood Year Hkamti 3(7%) 26(57%) 12(26%) 5(10%) in 42 yrs 29 in 42 yrs Homalin 4(7%) 28(50%) 15(27%) 7(13%) 2(3%) in 41 yrs 32 in 41 yrs Mawlaik 1(2%) 23(40%) 17(30%) 11(9%) 5(9%) in 44 yrs 32 in 44 yrs Kalewa 1(2%) 23(40%) 17(30%) 12(21%) 4(7%) in 43 yrs 33 in 43 yrs Monywa 0 16(38%) 14(34%) 9(21%) 3(7%) in 43 yrs 29 in 43 yrs Dokehtawady River Myitnge 1(2%) 15(25%) 19(32%) 17(29%) 7(12%) in 37 yrs 31 in 37 yrs Sittoung River Toungoo 0 9(14%) 37(59%) 12(19%) 5(8%) in 43 yrs 34 in 43 yrs Madauk 2(2%) 23(27%) 50(58%) 10(11%) 2(2%) in 43 yrs 40 in 43 yrs Shwegyin River Shwegyin 2(5%) 9(23%) 27(69%) 1(3%) in 44 yrs 24 in 44 yrs Bago River Bago 1(6%) 5(31%) 10(63%) in 44 yrs 13 in 44 yrs Thanlwin River Hpaan 2(2%) 33(36%) 45(49%) 11(12%) 1(1%) in 43 yrs 38 in 43 yrs

25 Annual Flood Occurrence Percentage in Myanmar ( ) year More than 50 % - 23 yrs Equal to 50 % - 3 yrs Less than 50 % - 17 yrs Annual Flood Occurrence %

26 Annual Maximum Water Levels at Myitkyina Station (Ayeyarwady)( ) Year Annual Maximum Water Levels at Nyaung U Station (Ayeyarwady)( ) Water Level (cm) Year Annual Maximum Water Levels at Hinthada Station (Ayeyarwady)( ) Water Level (cm) Annual Maximum Water Levels at Katha Station (Ayeyarwady)( ) Year Water Level (cm) Year Water Level (cm)

27 Annual Maximum Water Levels at Hkamti Station (Chindwin)( ) Year Annual Maximum Water Levels at Mawlaik Station (Chindwin)( ) Water Level (cm) Year Water Level (cm) Annual Maximum Water Levels at Monywa Station (Chindwin)( ) Year Annual Maximum Water Levels at Myitnge Station (Dokehtawady)( ) Water Level (cm ) Year Water Level (cm)

28 Annual Maximum Water Levels at Madauk Station (Sittoung)( ) Year Annual Maximum Water Levels at Shwegyin Station (Shwegyin)( ) Water Level (cm) Year Water Level (cm) Annual Maximum Water Levels at Hpa-an Station (Thanlwin)( ) Year Annual Maximum Water Levels at Bago Station (Bago)( ) Water Level (cm) Year Water Level (cm)

29 Conclusion Impacts of climate change also occur in Myanmar DMH is only one service issuing warnings for hydrological, Meteorological and seismological disasters. The relevant depts. in Myanmar are implementing the projects, workshops and meetings related to the climate change, also climate change assessment and adaptation cooperating with international organizations. DMH is also doing the analysis of the climate change trends and also develop the scenario for climate data. DMH is very actively contributing in the projects, workshops and meetings related with climate change assessment and adaptation.

Myanmar Climate Report

METreport No. 9/2017 ISSN 2387-4201 Climate Myanmar Climate Report Dr Lai Lai Aung 1, Mrs Ei Ei Zin 1, Ms Pwint Theingi 1, Ms Naw Elvera 1, Ms Phyu Phyu Aung 1, Ms Thu Thu Han 1, Ms Yamin Oo 1, and Dr