Kevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley

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1 Kevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley

2 Economic & Commercial Real Estate Outlook Kevin Thorpe, Chief Economist

3 2012 Another Year Of Modest Improvement 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 Real GDP, Trillions $13.8 $13.6 Pre-recession Peak: $13.3 tril. Current: $13.6 tril. $13.4 $13.2 $13.0 $12.8 $12.6 Real GDP Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

4 2013 Should Be No Worse Real GDP, Annualized Growth % 3% 1.9% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% Year-ago Today Trend 2% 1% 0% -1% -0.3% 1.8% Business Profits, tril $1.83 $1.93 Consumer Spending, tril $9.441 $9.662 Consumer Credit, tril $2.60 $2.75 Banks Net Income, bil $32.7 $34.7-2% Equity Markets (DOW) 12,623 13,878-3% -4% -3.1% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); U.S. Census Bureau (BOC); U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC); S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC

5 Housing Creates An Upward Bias Housing Starts, Millions Forecast Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC)

6 Many Positive Developments Technology Energy Manufacturing Other Venture capital in tech is up 50% U.S. production of oil and natural gas is booming 500,000 Manufacturing jobs created in recovery Hot sauce is hot Source: Cassidy Turley Research

7 CRE Demand Metrics U.S. Net Absorption in 2012 vs. Pre-recession Averages Absorption Pre-recession Average Retail (msf) Office (msf) Industrial (msf) Apartment (000's) Source: Cassidy Turley Research

8 Fiscal Policy Biggest Wild Card

9 Federal Deficit Federal Debt Held by Public as a % of Real GDP 180% 160% Goal is to bring deficit spending down by $4 trillion over the next 10 years 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% Sustainable Path Do Nothing Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO)

10 Deficit Progress So Far Reduce the Deficit by $4 Trillion Over the Next 10 Years? Taxes $730 billion Discretionary $1 trillion Source: Cassidy Turley Research

11 Gov t Spending, Not The Issue Percent of GDP Discretionary & Other Spending Revenue 0 Source: Congressional Budget Office (The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook)

12 Entitlements Will Bankrupt The U.S. Percent of GDP 40 Discretionary & Other Spending Entitlement Programs Revenue Source: Congressional Budget Office (The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook)

13 What is Sequestration? Discretionary Spending, $Billions $1,400 $1,350 $1,300 $1,250 $1,200 $1,150 $1,100 $1,077 $1,050 $1,000 $950 $900 $ No Sequestration Sequestration Source: Congressional Budget Office (The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook); Cassidy Turley

14 Exposure To Sequestration 2010 Federal Spending as % of GDP 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Washington, DC Sacramento, CA Baltimore, MD St. Louis, MO Tampa, FL 23.5% Riverside, CA 22.4% Louisville, KY 22.0% San Diego, CA 21.7% Los Angeles, CA 21.3% Columbus, OH 19.5% Nashville, TN 18.8% Phoenix, AZ 17.6% Cincinnati, OH 17.3% Indianapolis, IN 15.9% San Francisco, CA 15.2% Atlanta, GA 14.9% Milwaukee, WI 14.6% Denver, CO 14.3% Minneapolis, MN 12.2% Santa Ana, CA 10.0% San Jose, CA 9.6% Houston, TX 9.4% Charlotte, NC 8.1% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); Consolidated Federal Funds Report, % 26.5% 34.9% 39.9%

15 Columbus

16 Job Losses From Recession Selected Metros, 000 s -39,000 Nashville, TN Dayton, OH Columbus, OH Baltimore, MD Indianapolis, IN Charlotte, NC Cincinnati, OH St. Louis, MO Cleveland, OH New York, NY Las Vegas, NV Atlanta, GA Phoenix, AZ Chicago, IL Los Angeles, CA Source: BLS

17 Columbus Is Making Progress Job Growth/Losses, 000 s Source: BLS

18 Jan 2000 Jun 2000 Nov 2000 Apr 2001 Sep 2001 Feb 2002 Jul 2002 Dec 2002 May 2003 Oct 2003 Mar 2004 Aug 2004 Jan 2005 Jun 2005 Nov 2005 Apr 2006 Sep 2006 Feb 2007 Jul 2007 Dec 2007 May 2008 Oct 2008 Mar 2009 Aug 2009 Jan 2010 Jun 2010 Nov 2010 Apr 2011 Sep 2011 Feb 2012 Jul 2012 Dec 2012 Unemployment Trending Well Unemployment Rate, % Columbus U.S. Source: BLS

19 Ohio Comparison Growth in Employment Since % 3.5% 3.0% 3.5% 3.1% 2.9% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 2.2% 1.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Columbus Cincinnati U.S. Dayton Akron Cleveland 0.6% Job Growth, 2012 vs 2010 % chg. Source: BLS

20 Employment By Sector Columbus Job Growth/Losses Since 2011 Education & Health 14,000 Prof. & Bus. Services 6,000 Leisure & Hospitality Retail Trade Financial Activities 3,900 3,900 3,200 Information 0 Manufacturing Federal Government -1,200-1,200 Job Growth/Losses, 000's State & Local Gov't -5,300-10,000-5, ,000 10,000 15,000 Source: BLS

21 Financial Services Coming Back Columbus: Financial Services Employment, 000 s Financial Services & Insurance Source: BLS; Cassidy Turley Research

22 Demand For Space Is Subpar Columbus Office Sector 800, , , , , , , % 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% -800,000 Absorption Vacancy 0.0% Source: Cassidy Turley Research

23 Getting More Space Efficient U.S. Office space per worker, average square feet Office space per worker, sf Source: NAIOP, CoreNet Global

24 Class A Office Rents Moving Up Columbus: Average Asking Rents $22 $21 $20.93 $20 $19 $18 $17 $16 $16.60 $15 $ Class A Class B Source: Cassidy Turley Research

25 Industrial Record Years Columbus Industrial Sector 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 Record Year 3 rd Highest 13% 12% 11% 1,500,000 10% 1,000, ,000 9% 0-500,000-1,000, % 7% -1,500,000 Absorption Vacancy 6% Source: Cassidy Turley Research

26 Highly Educated Key Strength Population > 25 years old with bachelor s degree, %, 2011 Columbus Cincinnati U.S. Cleveland Dayton Ohio Toledo Source: Moody s Analytics

27 Columbus Forecast 2013* Replay of last year 14,000 net new jobs Below-average growth in office Above-average growth in industrial Source: Cassidy Turley Research 2014 Recovery firms up 20,000 net new jobs Average growth in office Above-average growth in industrial Spec development will occur

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