Index, nominal terms, 2010 = Energy. Agriculture Metals

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3 Broad commodity price trends Index, nominal terms, 2010 = Energy Agriculture Metals 30 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source: World Bank Note: Last observation is August 2017.

4 Prices are still higher than the average Index, constant US$ (2010 = 100) Agriculture Changes (%) in real prices to 2016 from: Agriculture: Energy: Metals: Metals 40 Energy Source: World Bank.

5 Agriculture is an energy intensive industry Energy intensity Transmission elasticities WORLD Elasticity estimates HIGH INCOME DEVELOPING Manufacture Agriculture SSA 0.30 US Canada EU China Brazil India 0.04 Turkey Cost of energy 0.00 Non-energy Grains Oils and meals Other food Raw materials Metals Fertilizers Source: Author s calculations based on the GTAP database (2007 release) and Baffes (2007), Resources Policy, vol.32, pp Notes: Elasticity estimates are based on OLS regression of nominal prices on oil price, deflator, time trend, annual data,

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7 Old versus new oil price equilibrium US$/bbl January August 2014 Average price: $104/bbl Volatility: 2.95 December August 2017 Average price: $48/bbl Volatility: Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Source: World Bank. Note: Weekly data. Volatility is defined as standard deviation of logarithmic changes times 100. Last observation is July 7, 2017.

8 All commodity prices declined during 2011Q1-2014Q2, but oil Natural rubber Cotton Coal Silver Nickel Copper Palmoil Aluminum Coffee (arabica) Maize Rice Tin Lead Platinum Zinc Soybeans Cocoa Gold Tea Wheat Crude oil Price change from 2011Q1 to 2014Q2 (percent) Source: World Bank

9 Downward revisions to EMDE growth Percent 7 Forecast in January of previous year Forecast in January of current year Actual growth Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects Notes: EMDE denotes Emerging Markets and Developing Economies.

10 Unconventional oil production mb/d 10 US shale Canadian oil sands Biofurels Source: International Energy Agency and World Bank

11 The U.S. shale oil expansion sursprized markets mb/d Solid lines: Actual production for the year Diamonds: IEA projection for the year on the specific month J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Source: International Energy Agency and World Bank Note: U.S. oil output includes biofuels. Solid lines denote annual oil production and diamonds denote IEA projections on the specific month.

12 Surplus conditions became apparent in 2014Q2 Source: International Energy Agency and World Bank Note: Last observation 2017Q1. mb/d, cumulative changes since 2010Q4 4.5 Iran Libya Syria Yemen United States Net Change Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3 2017Q1

13 Trigger I: Geopolitical concerns dissipate 4.5 Iraq's oil production during 2014 Libya's oil production during JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Source: IEA

14 Trigger II: The U.S. dollar begins appreciating US$/bbl Index, 1973 = Oil price [left] U.S. $ [right] Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Source: World Bank and FRED. Note: Oil refers to WTI and US$ is the trade weighted U.S. dollar index against major currencies, not seasonally adjusted (DTWEXM), both daily frequency. 70

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16 mb/d 9 Iran, Iraq, and Libya added 2.6 mb/d during Jul 14-Dec 16 Mb/d Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Source: International Energy Agency

17 Oil prices in a longer term perspective US$/bbl, deflated by U.S. CPI (2014 terms) Prior to 1985/86: (i) Alaska, (ii) North Sea, and (iii) Gulf of Mexico (brought 5 mb/d in the 8 years prior to the collapse, 9% of world total). The real oil price during averaged $82/bbl. Prior to 2014/15: (i) Biofuels, (ii) Canadian oil sands, and (iii) U.S. shale oil (brought 7 mb/d in the decade prior to the collapse, 8% of world total). The real oil price during averaged $92/bbl. OPEC: Changed its policy in both 1986 and yr average (excluding the 2 spike periods): $29/bbl average: $48.32/bbl Source: World Bank Note: World Bank crude oil average. Last observation is August 2017.

18 U.S. shale oil: Slow to get out but quick to come back y-o-y monthly changes, thousand bbl 2,000 The plunge begins 1,500 1,000 IEA Forecast ,000 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Source: International Energy Agency. Notes: U.S. crude oil production. Last actual observation is August September 2017 to December 2018 is forecast.

19 It only takes 3 months for active drilling to respond Source: Baker Hughes, Bloomberg, and World Bank. Note: Weekly data, last observation is September 1, US$/bbl 150 Rig count 1, Oil price, WTI [LHS] 1, Rig count [RHS] 1, Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 0

20 There have been large productivity increases in shale oil b/d per well 1,600 1,400 Bakken Eagle Ford Niobrara Utica Permian 1,200 1, Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source: Rystad Energy NASWellCube Premium.

21 The costs of shale oil production ha gone down US$/bbl Range Average US Shale Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3 2017Q1 Source: Rystad Energy NASWellCube Premium. Note: Does not include test activity, where well was shut-down after completion. Last observation is 2017Q2.

22 Evolution of Consensus on Brent before/after December 2016 US$/bbl Red diamonds: Price forecast reported prior to the December 2016 announcement of the OPEC/non-OPEC cuts. Blue diamonds: Price forecast reported after the December 2016 announcement of the OPEC/non-OPEC cuts. Horizontal lines: Forecasts averaged over the specific year. J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M Source: Consensus Economics and World Bank. Note: Median Brent oil price forecasts reported from June 2016 through May 2017 for 2018, 2019, and 2020.

23 Evolution of Consensus on Brent before/after November 2014 US$/bbl Red diamonds: Price forecast reported prior to the November 2014 OPEC s disengagement. Blue diamonds: Price forecast reported after the November 2014 OPEC s disengagement. Horizontal lines: Forecasts averaged over the specific year (illustration purposes only). 50 Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Source: Consensus Economics and World Bank. Note: Median Brent oil price forecasts reported from February 2014 through August 2015 for 2016, 2017, and 2018.

24 U.S. oil announcements drive prices more than other events May 4 Inventory buildup May 15 Cut extension announcement May 19 Expectations of deeper cut May 22 Manchester attack May 25 OPEC meeting May 31 Surging U.S. oil imports June 1 U.S. withdraws from Paris June 3 London attack June 5 Qatar isolation June 7 Inventory buildup June 7 Iran attack June 8 UK election June 14, 21 Inventory buildup Blue bars denote increases and red bars denote declines in oil price (from the previous trading day). Arrows point to oil price changes in excess of $ 1/bbl. Source: Bloomberg, US Energy Information Administration, World Bank, and various media sources. Notes: Price refers to the World Bank average

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26 The oil price plunge brought energy prices closer together US$/mmbtu Crude oil (World Bank average) Natural gas (U.S.) Coal (Australia) 0 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is August 2017.

27 Natural gas prices follow suit US$/mmbtu Japan (LNG) 10 Europe 5 0 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is August U.S.

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29 Agricultural prices have weakened as well Index, nominal terms, 2010 = Beverages Food Raw materials 60 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is August 2017.

30 The S/U ratios have recovered relative to their lows Ratio Maize Rice Wheat Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture. Notes: Update based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture August, 2017 data release.

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32 Metals prices have picked up $/mt 10,000 Copper [LHS] Iron ore [RHS] $/mt 200 8, , , ,000 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source: World Bank Note: Last observation is August

33 China is still the key driver of metal consumption Million metric tons Rest of the world 3 2 China 1 0 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Source: World Bank and World Bureau of Metal Statistics Notes: Last observation is June 2017.

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35 Where are commodity prices heading? Index, real (2010 = 100) Agriculture 80 Metals 40 Energy Source: World Bank. Note: The period refers to forecasts, as of September 2017.

36 Commodity and global economy forecasts (nominal) F 2018F 2019F Crude oil price ($/bbl) Gold price ($/toz) 1,161 1,249 1,250 1,229 1,208 Agriculture index (2010 = 100) Metals index (2010 = 100) Global growth (%) Emerging economy growth (%) Source: World Bank Note: 2017 onwards denote forecasts.

37 Iran s emergence after sanctions: Perhaps a downside risk? mb/d 7 Consumption Net Exports Source: BP Statistical Review, International Energy Agency. Note: Production includes crude oil and liquids.

38 mb/d 4 Venezuela: The (only?) emerging upside price risk Consumption Net Exports Source: BP Statistical Review. Note: Production includes crude oil and liquids.

39 Oil consumption: History and (2005) prospects mb/d 60 OECD, actual Non-OECD, actual OECD, projected in 2005 Non-OECD, projected in Source: International Energy Agency and World Bank. Note: The projection was taken from the 2005 Outlook.

40 Energy intensity has been declining Oil intensity Energy intensity bbl/$10,000 of GDP World OECD Non-OECD bbl of oil equivalent/$10,000 of GDP World OECD Non-OECD Source: BP Statistical Review and World Bank

41 China s and India s share of global commodity consumption Source: World Bank, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, World Bureau of Metals Statistics, U.S. Department of Agriculture China India Crude oil Crude oil Coal Coal Iron ore Iron ore Base metals Base metals Grains Grains Edible oils Edible oils Population GDP Population GDP Share of world total (percent) Share of world total (percent)

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