Dick Vos Senior Manager Research & Strategy
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1 Dick Vos Senior Manager Research & Strategy!
2 House prices now falling at fastest rate since early 1990s House prices will fall 7% in 'uncertain' market IMF warns on global house prices House prices Through the floor House prices post record fall Traders predict house prices will fall by 50% in four years House prices: Market sliding faster than in the 1990s recession
3 2008 Q2 Annual % Growth Consumers Developers Investors Spain -0,3% Germany -2.5% Ireland -8.1% Denmark -9.6% Lithuania -9.9% UK -14,8% Estonia -16% United States -16.8% Latvia -24.1%? Local Authorities
4 Housing markets comparable to the excesses in stock prices? DOW 5/ 08-10/08-37% IT DOW 05/ 01-10/ 02-33% Credit Crunch IT AEX 05/ 01-10/ 02-66% Credit Crunch AEX 05/ 08-10/ 08-52% IT FTSE 12/ 00-3/ 03-50% Credit Crunch NIKKEI 07/ 08-10/ 08-47%
5 Sub prime; how it all began
6 ! I made a mistake
7 #$$%!& " (Lehman) (Citibank) Hypotheken Event 2006: WelQom hypotheek beste hypotheek van het jaar (DSB)
8 () * Average Price UK House Prices. Period Q Q Source: Nationwide Q Nov Reduction -14.8% Mortgages 6,1% in Q32007 to 6.0% in Q Average Price Q Q ' Reduction -20.1% Mortgages 12.9% in 88 via 14.9% in 90 to 6.9% in 92 Average Price Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q New Houses Modern Houses Older Houses Q Reduction -2.0%
9 () * UK. "All Houses" Annual House Price Change in % Q Q Source: Nationwide % change Q Correction until 11/2008 : -14.8% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Correction until Q : -2.0% Total correction: -20.9% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q % Q Q4 1952
10 , +3.8% p.a. About 3x +2,5% p.a () * UK House Prices, Retail Prices and Earnings since 1952 Indices 1952=100 Sources: Nationwide and Measuring Worth House Price Index Retail Price Index Average Nominal Earnings Index
11 ()- *./0 UK. First Time Buyer Gross House Price to Earnings Ratios Period Q Q Source: Nationwide 6,0 5,0 4,0 Q ,9 Q2-Q ,4 4,7 3,0 3,2 2,0 1,0 0, Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1! "#$$% & ' ( ) * + & ', '(
12 () *1234/45* UK. FTB Mortgage payments as a percentage of take home pay. Period Q Q Source: Nationwide 160,0 140,0 1989: : ,0 100,0 80,0 60,0 40,0 20,0 0,0 Affordability is measured relative to the average in 1985 (=100) higher index values indicate worsening affordability Correction Q2 2008: Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1
13 16$5*,,"7,' 8,,' #*09:84,,' 2003/04-June % +21.6% +78.3%! +76.9%! +22.9% +29.4% +87.4%! +44.7% -15.1%!
14 #;+'+<;++;,,"< GDP 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% -1,0% -2,0% UK. Gross Domestic Product and House Prices. Percentage change on previous year ,00% 30,00% 25,00% 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% -5,00% -10,00% -15,00% House Prices Unemployment Rate 11,00% 10,00% 9,00% 8,00% 7,00% 6,00% 5,00% UK. Unemployment Rates and House Prices ,00% 25,00% 22,00% 19,00% 16,00% 13,00% 10,00% 7,00% 4,00% 1,00% -2,00% -5,00% -8,00% -11,00% House Price Changes House Prices House Prices UK. Average Nominal Earnings and House Prices. Percentage change on previous year. UK. Consumer Spending and House Prices. Percentage change on previous year. 10,00% 35,00% 10,00% 35,00% Earnings 9,00% 8,00% 7,00% 6,00% 5,00% 4,00% 3,00% 2,00% ,00% 25,00% 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% -5,00% -10,00% -15,00% House Prices Volume in consumer spending 8,00% 6,00% 4,00% 2,00% 0,00% -2,00% -4,00% ,00% 25,00% 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% -5,00% -10,00% -15,00% House Prices House Prices House Prices
15 #;+'+<;++;,,"< Consumer Confidence Indicator /2005 apr-89 jul-89 okt-89 jan /2006 jul-90 okt-90 jan-91 apr /2007 okt-91 jan-92 apr-92 jul /2008 jan-93 apr-93 jul-93 okt-93 jan-94 apr-94 jul-94 okt-94 jan-95 apr-95 jul-95 okt-95 jan-96 apr-96 jul-96 okt-96 jan-97 apr-97 jul-97 okt Industrial Confidence Indicator /2004 apr-89 jul-89 okt /2005 apr-90 jul-90 okt /2006 apr-91 jul-91 okt /2007 apr-92 jul-92 okt /2008 apr-93 jul jan-94 apr-94 jul-94 okt-94 jan Retail Trade Confidence Indicator /2004 apr-89 jul-89 okt-89 jan /2005 jul-90 okt-90 jan-91 apr /2006 okt-91 jan-92 apr-92 jul /2007 jan-93 apr-93 jul /2008 jan-94 apr-94 jul-94 okt-94 jan-95 apr-95 jul-95 okt-95 jan-96 apr-96 jul-96 okt-96 jan-97 apr-97 jul-97 okt
16 () *= 1* () ***>* UK House Prices, Retail Prices and Earnings since 1952 Indices 1952=100 Sources: Nationwide and Measuring Worth October 2007 November 2008: -14,8% /2012: -19% % p.a About 3x +2,5% p.a House Price Index Retail Price Index Average Nominal Earnings Index
17 *0*4 " 0**.? #$ 0$4 ($4
18 10,00% *?#$ 8,00% UK. Development House Prices versus Volume Growth Consumer Spending. Period ,00% 4,00% 2,00% 0,00% -2,00% -4,00% 25,00% 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% -5,00% -10,00% -15,00% ' Consumer Spending House Prices Consumer Spending House Prices
19 ?#$0**. + share U.K. Development share of consumer spending in total GDP and real growth rates consumer spending and GDP. Period growth 64,0% 62,0% 60,0% 58,0% 56,0% 54,0% 52,0% ,0% 7,0% 5,0% 3,0% 1,0% -1,0% -3,0% Share Consumer Spending GDP
20 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 0**. ($4 UK. Relationship growth GDP and growth Unemployment. Period ,0 0,0-1,0-2,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0-2,0-3,0, GDP Unemployment 2,4% GDP Hurdle Rate Unemployment Rate
21 ($45* UK. Relation Unemployment Rate and the development of the Compensation Rate in the Private Sector. Period ,00% 18,00% Correlation negative 0,50 16,00% 14,00% 12,00% 10,00% 8,00% 6,00% 4,00% 2,00% 0,00% Unemployment rate Compensation rate private sector
22 "#$#
23 2 A * The Netherlands. House Prices. Period Q Q Sources: CBS and NVM Mortgage Rate 5,8% Q Mortgage Rate 7,7% Q Mortgage Rate 11,6% Q Mortgage Rate 10,1% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Euro Mortgage Rate 8,2% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 1970
24 50,00% 2 A * 40,00% The Netherlands. "All Houses" Annual House Price Change in % Period Q Q Source: CBS and NVM 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% -10,00% -20,00% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q % Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 1971
25 2 A * The Netherlands House Prices, Retail Prices and Earnings since Indices 1970=100 Sources: CBS and NVM Mortgage Rate Mortgage 5,8% Rate 3,7% +7,0% pa ,9x Mortgage Rate 8,2% Mortgage Rate 9,0% Mortgage Rate 7,7% Mortgage Rate 10,1% Mortgage Rate 8,1% ,1% pa +3,7% pa 1,4x Mortgage Rate 11,6% House Prices Consumer Price Earnings
26 2 A - *AA5* The Netherlands. First Time Buyer Nominal House Price to Nominal Net Income ratios. Period Source: BIS 9,00 8,00 7,00 6,00 5,00 4, : 6,1 1983: 3,4 5,0% Mortgage Rates 5,5% 4,9% 5,8% 7,2% 3,7% 2008: 7,7 5,6% Long-term average 4,9 Average 70-00: 4,3 3,00 2,00 1,00 0,
27 2 A *4 " Number of new loans and Interest Payments as % of disposable income. Period Source: CBS : 47,5% 1975: 33,9% 1981: 50,9% 1986: 22,0% 2002: 38,4% 60,0% 50,0% 40,0% 2008: 47,7% ,0% 2005: 28,8% ,0% 10,0% Number % 0,0%
28 /45B ' Affordability = ( R M I ) T R = average mortgage rate on new mortgages M = average mortgage T = average tax shield on interest I = (net) disposable income
29 220,00 210,00 200,00 190,00 180,00 170,00 160,00 150,00 140,00 130,00 120,00 110,00 100,00 90,00 80,00 70,00 /45B + The Netherlands. Affordability Index. Period Q Q Base year 1985=100 Q2 1978: 209,94 Q2 1980: 210,85 Q2 2008: 198,60 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 1970
30 0**#+"<+'++'<, The Netherlands. GDP versus GDP Sources: CBS and Consensus Forecasts 6,00% 5,00% 4,00% 3,00% 2,00% 1,00% 0,00% -1,00% -2,00%, Correlation positive 0,
31 A **C* The Netherlands House Prices, Retail Prices and Earnings since Indices 1970=100 Sources: CBS and NVM Scenario : -42,5% ,0% pa ,5% pa House Prices Consumer Price Earnings
32 *??* The Netherlands. Relationship House Prices and Consumer Confidence Indicator. Period ,00% 25 18,00% 20 16,00% Conficence Indicator November ,00% 12,00% 10,00% 8,00% 6,00% 4,00% 2,00% Growth House Prices -20 0,00% Consumer Confidence Indicator House Prices
33 6,00% *?#$ 5,00% The Netherlands. Nominal development House Prices versus Volume Growth Consumer Spending. Period ,00% 3,00% 2,00% 1,00% 0,00% -1,00% -2,00% -3,00% -4,00% 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% -5,00% -10,00% -15,00% -20,00% Consumer Spending House Prices Consumer Spending House Prices
34 ?#$0**. Growth 6,00% 5,00% 4,00% The Netherlands. Development share of Consumer Spending in total GDP and Real Growth Rates Consumer Spending and GDP. Period ,1% 46,3% Share 60,00% 50,00% 3,00% 2,00% 40,00% 1,00% 30,00% 0,00% -1,00% ,00% -2,00% 10,00% -3,00% -4,00% 0,00% Consumer Spending GDP Share Period : Correlation Consumer Spending and GDP rates positive 0,80
35 0**. ($4 The Netherlands. Relationship GDP and Unemployment. Period Growth GDP 5,00% 4,50% 4,00% 3,50% 3,00% 2,50% 2,00% 1,50% 1,00% 0,50% 0,00% 8,00% 7,00% 6,00% 5,00% 4,00% 3,00% 2,00% 1,00% 0,00% Unemployment Rate GDP Unemployment Period 1988-August Correlation House Prices and Unemployment Rates negative 0,32
36 ($46$5* The Netherlands. Relationship Unemployment Rates and Annual Growth Rates Disposable National Income. Period ,00% 16,00% Period Correlation Growth Rates Disposable National Income and Unemployment Rates negative 0,73 14,00% 12,00% 10,00% 8,00% 6,00% 4,00% 2,00% 0,00% Unemployment Rate Disposable Income
37 ?* 0**4$ " We have to avoid this "
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