market overview TRENDY VÝVOJE STAVEBNICTVÍ V EVROPĚ Jan Blahoňovský
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1 Construction market overview Jan Blahoňovský TRENDY VÝVOJE STAVEBNICTVÍ V EVROPĚ
2 2 France [FR] BIPE Germany [GE] Ifo The EUROCONSTRUCT Network Poland [PL] PAB-PCR&F Portugal [PT] ITIC Austria [AT] WIFO Hungary [HU] BUILDECON Slovakia [SK] ÚEOS Belgium [BE] Aquiec-Vkebi Ireland [IE] DKM Spain [ES] ITeC Czech Republic [CZ] ÚRS PRAHA Italy [IT] CRESME Sweden [SE] Prognoscentret AB Denmark [DK] CIFS Netherlands [NL] EIB Switzerland [CH] KOF ETH Finland [FI] Forecon Norway [NO] Prognosesenteret AS UROCONSTRUCT France [FR] BIPE Network Poland [PL] PAB-PCR&F United Kingdom [UK] EXPERIAN FI Germany [GE] Ifo Portugal [PT] ITIC NO O Hungary [HU] BUILDECON Slovakia [SK] ÚEOS SE uiec-vkebi Ireland [IE] DKM Spain [ES] ITeC Z] ÚRS PRAHA Italy [IT] CRESME Sweden [SE] Prognoscentret AB IFS Netherlands [NL] EIB Switzerland [CH] KOF ETH DK con Norway [NO] Prognosesenteret AS UCT Network Poland [PL] PAB-PCR&F o Portugal [PT] ITIC ILDECON Slovakia [SK] ÚEOS United Kingdom [UK] EXPERIAN NO SE IE FI UK BE NL DE CZ PL E Spain [ES] ITeC Sweden [SE] Prognoscentret AB DK FR CH AT HU SK EIB gnosesenteret AS PCR&F C Switzerland [CH] KOF IEETH United Kingdom [UK] EXPERIAN NO SE UK FR BE NL CH DE FI CZ AT PL SK HU PT ES IT DK IT ES IE UK NL PT PL
3 3 Construction output and growth rate in Euroconstruct 19 countries 1500b 1 450b 1400b 1350b 1 300b 1250b 1.9% 2.4% 2.6% 1.2% 0.0% -2.6% -5.9% % 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Y/Y changes (right scale) Output at constant 2014 price Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th conference)
4 4 Total 1341bn (%) New Construction 652bn (48.6%) Renovation 689bn (51.4%) Western Europe 605bn (.8%) Western Europe 664bn (.4%) CEE 47bn (7.2%) CEE 25bn (3.6%)
5 5 Construction output as % of GDP in % 10% EC19 Average: 9.4% 15% 10% 5% 5% 0% AUT BEL DNK FIN FRA DEU IRL ITA NLD NOR PRT ESP SWE CHE GBR CZE HUN POL SVK 0% Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th conference)
6 6 Forecast Revision: Total Construction Output Index 2014=, Warsaw (- x) refers to the previous EC forecasts 120 Euroconstruct Countries (EC-19) Warsaw (-4) Warsaw (-3) Warsaw (-2) Warsaw (-1) EC June 2015, Warsaw * Western Europe (EC-15) 120 Eastern Europe (EC-4) 120 * '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 *These graphs are not mistaken. They display each of the 5 forecasts Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th conference)
7 7 growth. Construction market structure and structure in EC countries (EC-19), 2014 billion euro at 2014 prices Euroocnstruct-19: % Big-5: 69%, Nordic-4: 10%, Small WE-6: 16% Eastern Europe-4: 5% Construction market EC-19: EUR 1341bn Construction market WE (EC-15): EUR 1269bn Construction market EE (EC-4): EUR 72bn Res. 368 (27%) Res. 246 (18%) Res. 363 (29%) Res. 235 (19%) Non-Res. 10 (14%) Res. 6 (8%) Res. 11 (15%) Non-Res. 206 (15%) Civil eng. 114 (9%) Civil eng. 184 (14%) Non-Res. 223 (17%) Non-Res. 1 (15%) Civil eng. (8%) Civil eng. 168 (13%) Non-Res. 202 (16%) Civil eng. 9 (12%) Civil eng. 15 (21%) Non-Res. 21 (30%) Renovation: EUR 688bn (51%) New: EUR 653bn (49%) Renovation: EUR 664bn (52%) New: EUR 605bn (48%) Renovation: EUR 25bn (34%) New: EUR 47bn (66%) Res.: Residential, Non-Res.: Non-residential, Civil eng.: Civil engineering Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th conference)
8 8 New and Renovation ratio in EC countries, 2014 % 80% 60% 40% renovation % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% new AUT SVK POL IRL CZE GBR PRT ESP CHE NOR SWE BEL FIN FRA NLD HUN EC19 DEU DNK ITA 20% 0% Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th conference)
9 9 Construction output growth rates year to year change in % E 2016F 2017F New Renovation Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th conference)
10 have also reduced on each occasion since the Prague 10 Residential Construction, Euroconstruct Countries (EC-19) Index 2010=, Warsaw (- x) refers to the previous EC forecasts have also reduced on each occasion since the Prague Total Warsaw (-3) Warsaw (-2) Warsaw (-1) EC June 2015, Warsaw Residential Construction, Euroconstruct Countries (EC-19) Index 2010=, Warsaw (- x) refers to the previous EC forecasts New construction Total Renovation Warsaw (-3) Warsaw (-2) Warsaw (-1) EC June 2015, Warsaw Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th Conference) Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th Conference)
11 11 Revision of non-residential construction forecast index 2010= Non-residential construction and economic growth, 19 EC countries Construction output: bill. Euro at 2014 prices, GDP: Y/Y real change in % bill euro EC November 2014, Milan EC June 2015, Warsaw Non-Residential, NEW Non-Residential, RENOVATION 150 Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th Conference) Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th Conference), Eurostat
12 12 land and considerable upward revisions too in Forecast comparison: Civil Engineering segments index 2014=, current forecast (June 2015, Warsaw) and previous (Nov 2014, Milan) Total C.E. (EC19) Total C.E. (EC19-Spain) Road (EC19) Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th conference) Railways (EC19)
13 13 80th EUROCONSTRUCT Conference 3-4 December 2015, Budapest, Hungary 80 th NEW FEATURES REGIONAL PRESENTATIONS BIGGER COVERAGE 80 th EUROCONSTRUCT Conference REGION 1 Germany Austria Switzerland REGION 2 Sweden Norway Finland Denmark REGION 3 United Kingdom Ireland REGION 4 France Netherlands Belgium REGION 5 Spain Italy Portugal REGION 6 Poland Czech Republic Hungary Slovak Republic REGION 7 Russia Turkey Ukraine REGION 8 Bulgaria Croatia Romania Serbia Slovenia 19 EUROCONSTRUCT COUNTRIES + 8 EECFA COUNTRIES SOMETHING OLD SOMETHING NEW COMMON MARKET SENTIMENT European Construction: Market Trends until 2018 ONLINE SUBMISSION OF QUESTIONS ONLINE VOTING ON FORECAST ORGANIZER: PROVIDER OF EASTERN EUROPEAN FORECAST: European Construction: Market Trends until 2018
14 DĚKUJI ZA POZORNOST
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