Status and futures in the fishmeal industry
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1 Status and futures in the fishmeal industry By Gunn Strandheim Irish Pelagic Seminar Killybegs, Ireland 11th of November - 211
2 Global fishmeal production
3 Subject. Resource situation in the fishmeal industry Current global fishmeal production Global fishmeal/fishoil usage Future demand for fishmeal/oil Prices and price drivers Vegetable substitutes
4 1 tonnes Catch of main pelagic species for fishmeal & oil production (Peruvian anchovy, Jurel, sardines) Fishing in Peru and Chile Chile Peru
5 1 tonnes Catch of main pelagic species for fishmeal & oil production in Europe 6. Fishing of Blue Whiting, Sandeel, Sprat, Capelin Faeroe Norway Denmark Other EU Iceland
6 Raw material from direct landings to the fishmeal industry in Norway 1 tonnes Others Capelin Blue Whiting Sandeel Herring E
7 Price development for species used for fishmeal and oil production. NOK/kg 2,5 Price development pelagic species delivered to fishmeal production in Norway Source: NSSL 2 1,5 1, Jan - Oct 1 Jan - Oct 11
8 Estimated volumes of cuttings from the herring fillet industry in Norway 1 tonnes E
9 Estimate of global fishmeal By - product production in 28 Estimate of global fishmeal By - product production in 28 Producing Fishmeal Share % By- product country production By-product production Thailand % 281 Japan 23 9 % 183 Chile % 94 USA % 54 Mexico 16 5 % 53 Iceland % 45 Russia 71 5 % 36 Denmark % 32 Canada 31 1 % 31 Norway % 3 Total Others % 39 Total World % source:iffo
10 1 tonnes World fishmeal production historical development Others Chile Peru Share Peru & Chile World fishmeal production 6 % 5 % 4 % % 2 % 1 % %
11 World fishmeal production by country World fishmeal production by country Others USA UK/Ireland Norway Iceland Denmark Chile Peru E 211 E
12 1 tonnes World fishoil production Production of fishoil world wide E
13 Percentage of fishmeal usage per market 2 3 % 9 % 29 % 35 % Aquaculture Poultry Pigs Ruminants Other 24 %
14 Percentage of fishmeal usage per market 29 4 % 25 % Aquaculture 8 % 63 % Poultry Pigs Other
15 Percentage of fishoil usage per market 29 6 % 13 % Aquaculture Direct human cons. Other 81 %
16 Percentage of fishoil usage in aquaculture 29 1 % % 3 % 3 % 6 % 19 % Crustaceans Marine fish Salmon & Trout Eels Cyprinids Tilapias Other 68 %
17 Estimated growth in aquaculture production (4,5% a year) Mill tonnes 25 2 Aquaculture Catch
18 Estimated growth in aquaculture production (2% a year) Mill tonnes 2 18 Aquaculture 16 Catch
19 Factors affecting the fishmeal market and the prices. General economic situation (financial crisis etc.) Commodity market Prices on substitutes (soyameal, rapemeal etc) Supply situation
20 World largest fishmeal importers 1 tonnes Fishmeal import in main markets Japan EU China
21 World largest fishmeal exporters 1 tonnes USA Chile Peru Ireland UK Faeroe Island Norway Iceland Denmark
22 Fishmeal prices the big picture USD/tonnes Development Fishmeal prices, CIF Hamburg Jan Sep 211 EL Nino EL Nino
23 USD/tonne Development in import price China 2. Average import price fishmeal to China
24 USD/tonne Ratio Fishmeal price versus soyameal price Fishmeal and Soyameal Jan 3 - Sep 11 Fishmeal price Soyameal price Ratio FM/SBM
25 sep.6 des.6 mar.7 jun.7 sep.7 des.7 mar.8 jun.8 sep.8 des.8 mar.9 jun.9 sep.9 des.9 mar.1 jun.1 sep.1 des.1 mar.11 jun.11 sep.11 Price development wheat USD/tonne 5 Wheat
26 sep.6 des.6 mar.7 jun.7 sep.7 des.7 mar.8 jun.8 sep.8 des.8 mar.9 jun.9 sep.9 des.9 mar.1 jun.1 sep.1 des.1 mar.11 jun.11 sep.11 Price development maize USD/tonne 35 Maize (corn)
27 Quantity (1 tonnes) Price (USD/Tonne) Change in fishmeal inventories IFFO-6 countries 12 1 Fishmeal - production and exports versus price Dec 2 - Sep 11 Production less exports IFFO-6 - accumulated last 12 months Price Hamburg aug. 11 jun. 11 apr. 11 feb. 11 des. 1 okt. 1 aug. 1 jun. 1 apr. 1 feb. 1 des. 9 okt. 9 aug. 9 jun. 9 apr. 9 feb. 9 des. 8 okt. 8 aug. 8 jun. 8 apr. 8 feb. 8 des. 7 okt. 7 aug. 7 jun. 7 apr. 7 feb. 7 des. 6 okt. 6 aug. 6 jun. 6 apr. 6 feb. 6 des. 5 okt. 5 aug. 5 jun. 5 apr. 5 feb. 5 des. 4 okt. 4 aug. 4 jun. 4 apr. 4 feb. 4 des. 3 okt. 3 aug. 3 jun. 3 apr. 3 feb. 3 dec
28 1 tonnes Fishmeal inventories in China 25 Fishmeal stock - end of month Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
29 Summary Increased competition for raw material for fishmeal and fishoil production. Increased focus on cuttings from the industry Stable or slightly declining world fishmeal production Future use of fishmeal will be limited to aquaculture The fishmeal price will be less dependent of prices of substitutes. Continued high prices with ups and downs in short cycles.
30 Thank you very much!!!
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