Issues in the Long-Term Economic Outlook for Canada

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Issues in the Long-Term Economic Outlook for Canada"

Transcription

1 Policy and Economic Analysis Program Rotman School of Management University of Toronto Issues in the Long-Term Economic Outlook for Canada Office of the Chief Actuary Canada Pension Plan Seminar September 28, 2012 Peter Dungan and Steve Murphy

2 Issues in the Long-Term Outlook A. Demographics Labour Force Growth B. Labour Productivity C. Real Wage Growth D. Real Returns and Inflation E. Projections for Government and the CPP/QPP F. What Can a Post-Mortem from a Long-Term Outlook of 1992 Tell Us?

3 Some Background: The Policy and Economic Analysis Program (PEAP) at the University of Toronto has been developing longer-term projections for the Canadian and Ontario economies since the late 1970s. At present these are developed/revised quarterly a year (and published twice a year) with a horizon to Projections are based on 1) A demographic model 2) A macro-econometric model 3) (Much) judgment and external analysis

4 A. Demographics Labour-Force Growth 1) Issues in the Demographic Projection. Fertility important to examine the generational shift in desired age of child bearing Total Period Fertility (TPF) could still rise over next decade or two. Mortality mortality reductions of last several decades may be starting to lessen but more may be living past 100. Immigration will the.75% target be maintained and when, if ever, will it drop? How productive will new immigrants be relative to settled population?

5 Birth Rates by Age for Selected Years

6 2.0 TPF and Crude Birth Rate TPF Crude Birth Rate

7 Total Period Fertility and Crude Birth Rates in Selected Years: TPF Crude Birth Rate

8 12 10 Death Rates by 10-Yr Groups (%) M F M F70-79 M F Death Rates by 10-Yr Groups (%) F M M F

9 Immigration/Emigration - % of Population Immigration Emigration 0.0 Returning Canadians

10 80,000,000 Total Population - PEAP Projections - Long-Term 70,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 30,000,000 20,000, Population projections in the very long term can vary significantly with alternative data and assumptions

11 Immigration, Emigration and Returning Canadians as Per Cent of Population in 2040: Immigrants: 0.75 % Emigrants: 0.14 % Returning Canadians 0.07%

12 A. Demographics Labour-Force Growth 2) Labour-Force Participation. Clearly, and 65+ cohorts will increase participation in next decade or two; OAS changes will further encourage higher part rate.. But how high? presumably bounded by the part rate of the next lower cohort and by history cohort part rate will drop when boomers reach well into their 70s and their low part rate reduces the average of the cohort.

13 Percent 100 Participation Rates By Age Group and Gender Female - 20 to 24 Female - 25 to Total - Male and Female Female - 15 to 19 Female - 55 to Female - 65 & over

14 Percent Total - Male and Female Participation Rates By Age Group and Gender Male - 55 to 64 Male - 25 to 54 Male - 20 to Male - 15 to Male - 65 & over

15 Participation Rates by Age and Gender: Age: Male (%) Female (%) Total Male + Female

16 A. Demographics Labour-Force Growth 3) Labour-Force Full-Employment Unemployment Rate (or NAIRU). Long-run NAIRU is projected to be about 6.0%, but our forecast uses 6.2% allowing for some labourmarket slack.. The actual level of the NAIRU has relatively little impact on the long-term GDP growth rate.

17 B. Labour Productivity Labour productivity growth together with employment at full employment drives long-run GDP projection but productivity is far more difficult to project The term we use is GDP / employee hours data in our view need a bit of caution. Some history for growth in GDP/Employed: % % % Projection: %

18 5 GDP / Employee - Growth Rate History and Projected

19 B. Labour Productivity Real Wage Growth Why could labour productivity rebound to earlier growth rates in the coming decades?. Ageing, more-experienced and better-educated work force.. Labour markets tighter on average more incentive to economize on labour. Higher capital accumulation tax environment more conducive to investment attraction of Canada for foreign investment. While natural resource productivity falls with resources that are more difficult to extract, natural resources are more valuable this should be captured by Chain-Fisher inflation adjustment. Catch-up with US

20 5 4 3 GDP / Employee Canada and US US Canada

21 B. Labour Productivity Why could labour productivity NOT rebound to earlier growth rates in the coming decades?. Loss of experienced baby-boom cohort even if they retire later. Greater reliance on immigration to add to labour force, and they are not as productive due to difficulties of integration into labour market. Significant capital devoted to GHG or other environmental cleanup, leaving less to increase GDP as currently measured hence lower apparent productivity. Some of the US productivity growth may be only statistical due to use of hedonic pricing, especially in IT sector

22 Expenditure Shares of Nominal GDP Percent Consumption Exports 40 Imports 30 Government Investment

23 B. Labour Productivity Using a production function approach with the customary weights (70% labour, 30% capital) we can see the contribution of capital accumulation to growth in the projection. The implicit growth in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is well within historical ranges (0.5% - 1.0%)

24 Percent 7 Components of Potential Growth (Unweighted) 6 5 Capital Labour

25 Percent Potential and Projected Growth 8 6 Potential GDP Growth with: 4 TFP = 1.0% 2 TFP = 0.5% 0-2 Actual/Projected GDP Growth

26 C. Real Wage Growth The term we use is Wages, Salaries and Supplementary Labour Income per Employed person for compatibility with National Accounts concepts. Real Wage Growth largely follows labour productivity

27 C. Real Wage Growth But we have some real wage growth in excess of productivity growth over the next 20 years. Some catch-up as return to full employment. Some extra bargaining power of labour due to boomer retirements some skills become more scarce However there is no force returning labour s share of GDP to some long-term or underlying value Also the effect of boomer retirements works to reduce the average wage as in progress-through-the-ranks establishments a large number of the higher-paid employed steadily leave the mix.

28 Percent 6 Real Wage Gains and Productivity Growth Productivity Real Wage

29 Percent 20 Income Shares of GDP Wages and Salaries (RHS Axis) Percent Corporate Profits (Before Tax) Indirect Taxes Interest & Misc. Investment Income

30 D. Real Rates We project real rates (Canada and world) to rise relatively quickly once full recovery is closer;. Central banks will be aggressive in trying to cut off the next bubble. Long-run level is above that of recent decade, lower than in the late-80s/early-90s and in the range of the 1960s.

31 10 Real Yield on Gov't of Canada 10 Yr and Over Bonds (CPI Inflation Rate)

32 Percent Inflation (CPI) and Unemployment Unemployment Rate 4 2 Inflation (CPI) Long-run inflation projection is Bank s 2% target to be maintained with just under 2% achieved on average.

33 D. Real Rates Why the generally high real rate? again this is largely a world phenomenon not Canada-specific Demand for long-term loanable funds is high:. Strong investment by emerging economies (perhaps no higher in China but stronger elsewhere). High demand from many governments in deficit Supply of loanable funds is lower:. East Asian savings lower China, ageing, transition to greater consumption. Ageing population in developed lower saving

34 E. Projections for Governments and the CPP/QPP We project the government sector as a whole to return to rough balance on a National Accounts basis by a bit before The National Accounts portrayal of the CPP/QPP is incomplete in some respects but the projection using this basis shows the joint plan is sustainable with current contribution and payout rates.

35 Percent 80 Federal Debt as a Share of GDP

36 Percent 30 Provincial Debt as a Share of GDP

37 Percent 100 Government Debt as a Share of GDP Total Federal

38 Percent 4 CPP/QPP Plans as a Share of GDP Revenues 3 Expenditures 2 1 Balance

39 Percent 4 CPP/QPP Revenues as a Share of GDP Total Revenues 3 Premium Revenues 2 1 Investment Revenues

40 Percent 8 6 Net Saving Shares as a Percent of GDP Net Domestic Saving (S-I) 4 2 Net Foreign Saving (M-X) Net Government Saving (T-G) While government is balanced, foreign borrowing finances investment beyond domestic saving.

41 F. Post-Mortem on a 1992 Long-Term Projection Compare history for with a projection we prepared in August, 1992.

42 6 5 Real GDP Growth Rate 1992 Forecast and Actual 1992 Forecast Actual

43 1,500 Real GDP ($ 2002 Bill) 1992 Forecast and Actual 1,400 1,300 1, Forecast 1,100 Actual 1, forecast growth applied to 1991 actual

44 19,000 Labour Force ('000) 1992 Forecast and Actual 18,000 17, Forecast 16,000 Actual 15,000 14, forecast growth applied to 1991 actual

45 18,000 Employment ('000) 1992 Forecast and Actual 17,000 16,000 15, Forecast Actual 14,000 13,000 12, forecast growth applied to 1991 actual

46 90 GDP/Employee ($2002 '000) 1992 Forecast and Actual Forecast Actual

47 4 Real Wage Growth Rate 1992 Forecast and Actual Forecast 0 Actual

48 70 Federal Debt/GDP Ratios: 1992 Forecast and Actual 60 Actual Forecast forecast used different federal debt (and GDP) definitions

49 10 Real Industrial Bond Rates: 1992 Forecast and Actual 9 8 Actual Forecast MYW Industrial Bond Rate minus CPI Inflation Rate

50 5 CPI Inflation Rate 1992 Forecast and Actual Forecast Actual

51 F. Post-Mortem on a 1992 Long-Term Projection Some possible lessons?. Some comfort in getting general trends correct. The Canadian productivity slowdown after 2000 is a definite surprise as are low real rates. Should long-term projections include at least one major recession? Is this better than using average growth rates deemed to be prudent?. The Bank of Canada means what it says.

52

Government finances A long term assessment. Presented by Edwina Matos Pereira

Government finances A long term assessment. Presented by Edwina Matos Pereira Government finances A long term assessment Presented by Edwina Matos Pereira Walter Mosher June 22, 2010 Structure 1. Aruba s current fiscal landscape 2. Long term outlook & scenarios 3. Aruba s GDP volatility

More information

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six plus years of moderate growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half

More information

RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins

RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins CICA/RBC Q4 2011 Business Monitor Economic Results Overview Business and Economic Optimism Begin to Stablize 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % National Optimism

More information

32 nd Annual CanaData Construction Forecasts Conference

32 nd Annual CanaData Construction Forecasts Conference 32 nd Annual CanaData Construction Forecasts Conference Economic Intelligence September 21 st, 2017 Toronto Peter Norman, VP & Chief Economist, Economic Consulting Our Company Structure at a Glance ARGUS

More information

Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty. Canada headed for another year of solid growth

Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty. Canada headed for another year of solid growth ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty Canada headed for another year of solid growth Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919

More information

The U.S. Economic Outlook

The U.S. Economic Outlook The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September 29 2006 Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service 781-301-9125 patrick.newport@globalinsight.com

More information

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half Full

More information

Big Changes, Unknown Impacts

Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Boulder Economic Forecast Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January 17, 2018 Real GDP Growth

More information

Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017

Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017 Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: How have the decline in oil prices and a weaker Canadian dollar affected Canada s economy? www.statcan.gc.ca Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards

More information

2017 PNG Economic Survey. Rohan Fox (ANU), Stephen Howes (ANU), Nelson Atip Nema (UPNG), Marcel Schröder (UPNG and ANU)

2017 PNG Economic Survey. Rohan Fox (ANU), Stephen Howes (ANU), Nelson Atip Nema (UPNG), Marcel Schröder (UPNG and ANU) 2017 PNG Economic Survey Rohan Fox (ANU), Stephen Howes (ANU), Nelson Atip Nema (UPNG), Marcel Schröder (UPNG and ANU) Introduction New government, new plan Short-term challenges: recession, falling government

More information

Outline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook

Outline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook 2017 International Economic Outlook Everett Grant Research Economist Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas October 2017 The views expressed are those of the author and

More information

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real

More information

Abel M. Mateus Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Abel M. Mateus Universidade Nova de Lisboa Abel M. Mateus Universidade Nova de Lisboa It is widely known the success of Asian Tigers But is less known that Portugal was one of the few countries, similar to the Asian Tigers, that changed from a

More information

FIVE GREAT STAGNATIONS

FIVE GREAT STAGNATIONS FIVE GREAT STAGNATIONS Paper to Treasury Seminar: 26 July, 2011 Brian Easton Economic and Social Trust On New Zealand Introduction Definitions Beginnings Stagnation 1: The Long Depression Stagnation 2:

More information

Retrenchment or Stagnation: Lessons from Japan s Lost Decades. Andrew Smithers. UK-Japan 21 st Century Group Conference 3 rd May, 2013

Retrenchment or Stagnation: Lessons from Japan s Lost Decades. Andrew Smithers. UK-Japan 21 st Century Group Conference 3 rd May, 2013 Retrenchment or Stagnation: Lessons from Japan s Lost Decades. Andrew Smithers UK-Japan 21 st Century Group Conference 3 rd May, 2013 Slide 1. The Conventional Wisdom. Japan has suffered from two lost

More information

The TRUTH IN NUMBERS Rennie Group 1 November 2017 Andrew Ramlo, VP Market Intelligence

The TRUTH IN NUMBERS Rennie Group 1 November 2017 Andrew Ramlo, VP Market Intelligence The TRUTH IN NUMBERS Rennie Group 1 November 2017 Andrew Ramlo, VP Market Intelligence aramlo@rennie.com Ryan Berlin, Senior Economist rberlin@rennie.com Demographic 2016 The People Growth & Change 100

More information

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management)

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management) The Economic Roller Coaster: Where Have We Been? And Where Are We Going? Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Senior Economist and Director of Economic Outreach Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Summit Dallas

More information

The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D.

The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D. The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D. Weak Recovery? It s no secret that the U.S. economy has still not fully recovered from the financial crisis and

More information

Understanding the interest-rate growth differential: its importance in long-term debt projections and for policy

Understanding the interest-rate growth differential: its importance in long-term debt projections and for policy Understanding the interest-rate growth differential: its importance in long-term debt projections and for policy David Turner, OECD UN DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World Economy, LINK Project October

More information

URBAN LAND INSTITUTE

URBAN LAND INSTITUTE URBAN LAND INSTITUTE 2012 ULI FALL MEETING (Denver, 18 October 2012) The Global Economic Outlook Dark clouds on the horizon Andrea Boltho Magdalen College University of Oxford Oxford Economics and REAG

More information

The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum

The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Chief Economist Monetary Policy Analytics October 5, 2017 What s Driving the Global

More information

Overview of the Philippines Action Plan for AEC Emmanuel F. Esguerra Deputy Director-General National Economic and Development Authority

Overview of the Philippines Action Plan for AEC Emmanuel F. Esguerra Deputy Director-General National Economic and Development Authority Overview of the Philippines Action Plan for AEC 2015 Emmanuel F. Esguerra Deputy Director-General National Economic and Development Authority Marriot Hotel, Newport City 8 October 2014 Outline AEC 2015

More information

Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Estimates for the United States

Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Estimates for the United States Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Estimates for the United States Thomas Piketty (PSE) Emmanuel Saez (UC Berkeley) Gabriel Zucman (UC Berkeley) November 2016 There is a large disconnect today

More information

THE ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION FROM HORSES

THE ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION FROM HORSES THE ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION FROM HORSES ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION FROM HORSES HIGHLIGHTS The horse industry contributes more than $19 billion annually to the Canadian economy On-farm activities with horses generate

More information

The Great Economic Reset

The Great Economic Reset The Great Economic Reset CMTA Annual Conference Squaw Creek Lake Tahoe April 13, 2016 Presented by Douglas C. Robinson, RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC SEC Registered Investment Advisory Firm Advisory

More information

The Shifts and the Shocks Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times

The Shifts and the Shocks Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times The Shifts and the Shocks Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times Peterson Institute for International Economics 9 th October 2014 Washington DC The Shifts and the

More information

Economic Outlook. Peter Rupert Professor and Chair Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project

Economic Outlook. Peter Rupert Professor and Chair Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project Economic Outlook Peter Rupert Professor and Chair Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project League of California Cities Monterey, CA December 3, 2014 Economic Update economic

More information

Puget Sound Regional Forecast Chris Mefford Community Attributes

Puget Sound Regional Forecast Chris Mefford Community Attributes 2015 Puget Sound Regional Forecast Chris Mefford Community Attributes 3 1,000s The Regional Economy has added jobs consistently for nearly 5 full years. In a few months, this will be the longest streak

More information

What s Ahead for The Colorado Economy?

What s Ahead for The Colorado Economy? What s Ahead for The Colorado Economy? Colorado Counties Inc. Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations November 28, 2017 Real GDP

More information

Multidimensional Analysis

Multidimensional Analysis Multidimensional Analysis of Macro Sustainability of Russia: New Methods for Measuring Progress Dr Stanislav Shmelev, Senior Research Fellow, Oxford University, UK E-mail: s.shmelev@ouce.ox.ac.uk Tel:

More information

Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons. John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009

Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons. John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009 Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009 The U.S. Recession Is Bottoming Out This recession has been the most severe of the postwar

More information

sector: recent developments VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO

sector: recent developments VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO The economy and the banking sector: recent developments VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO January 2006 Recent performance of the economy and prospects Factors behind the period of slow growth Challenges to the Banking

More information

Wealth Inequality in the United States since 1913

Wealth Inequality in the United States since 1913 Wealth Inequality in the United States since 1913 Emmanuel Saez (UC Berkeley) Gabriel Zucman (LSE) JRCPPF 4 th Annual Conference 19 February 2015 Is rising inequality in the United States only a labor

More information

BBL Seminar. Handout. September 12, CAI Fang. China s Demographic Change and Implications for Rest of the World"

BBL Seminar. Handout. September 12, CAI Fang. China s Demographic Change and Implications for Rest of the World Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) BBL Seminar Handout September 12, 2011 China s Demographic Change and Implications for Rest of the World" CAI Fang http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/index.html

More information

First Lecture Capitalism: A Brief History

First Lecture Capitalism: A Brief History Nitzan / 3270 GPE I I. Capitalism: A Brief History / 1 First Lecture Capitalism: A Brief History Definition Economic system? Private ownership / profit motive / wage labour Beginnings 16 th century: Feudal

More information

The Rise of China and Breaking out the Middle- Income Trap in Latin America and the Caribbean countries: A New Structural Economics Approach

The Rise of China and Breaking out the Middle- Income Trap in Latin America and the Caribbean countries: A New Structural Economics Approach The Rise of China and Breaking out the Middle- Income Trap in Latin America and the Caribbean countries: A New Structural Economics Approach Justin Yifu Lin Senior Vice President and Chief Economist The

More information

Faroe Islands and Greenland. Faroe Islands. Syssel -border. Municipal border. Danish Geodata Agency

Faroe Islands and Greenland. Faroe Islands. Syssel -border. Municipal border. Danish Geodata Agency Faroe Islands Syssel -border Municipal border Danish Geodata Agency (does not belong to a municipality) Municipal border Danish Geodata Agency Faroe Islands and The populations The economy The populations

More information

Current Hawaii Economic Conditions. Eugene Tian

Current Hawaii Economic Conditions. Eugene Tian Current Hawaii Economic Conditions Eugene Tian Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism At the PATA/TTRA 2016 Annual Outlook & Economic Forecast Forum February 3, 2016 Positive Signs in the

More information

Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast. May 13, 2014

Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast. May 13, 2014 Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast May 13, 2014 Outline for Today Myths and Realities of this Recovery Positive Economic Signs Negative Economic Signs Outlook for 2014 The Employment Picture

More information

Demographic Projection in Russian Interindustrial Model. Vadim Potapenko Institute of Economic Forecasting Russian Academy of Sciences

Demographic Projection in Russian Interindustrial Model. Vadim Potapenko Institute of Economic Forecasting Russian Academy of Sciences Demographic Projection in Russian Interindustrial Model Vadim Potapenko Russian population on 1 st January, million people 150 145 140 148.5 143.7 146.4 135 130 125 120 115 110 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

More information

Airlines, the economy and air transport demand

Airlines, the economy and air transport demand Airlines, the economy and air transport demand Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1 Returns for airlines investors lower this year;

More information

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY: Recent Performance and Long-Term Outlook. Undersecretary Rolando G. Tungpalan 17 February 2016

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY: Recent Performance and Long-Term Outlook. Undersecretary Rolando G. Tungpalan 17 February 2016 THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY: Recent Performance and Long-Term Outlook Undersecretary Rolando G. Tungpalan 17 February 2016 Favorable Macroeconomic Trends The Philippines has been on a higher growth trajectory

More information

2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy

2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy 2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,

More information

Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip?

Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip? Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip? Ross DeVol Chief Research Officer (310) 570 4615 rdevol@milkeninstitute.org www.milkeninstitute.org Presentation

More information

THE FUTURE OF SALES TAX REVENUE

THE FUTURE OF SALES TAX REVENUE THE FUTURE OF SALES TAX REVENUE Presented by Adam Fulton, Senior Economic Associate The Outlook for Sales Taxes State governments rely on state sales taxes for more than a fifth of their revenue Economic

More information

Demographics, Debt, Dollar and Deflation Is the next Great Reset coming?

Demographics, Debt, Dollar and Deflation Is the next Great Reset coming? Demographics, Debt, Dollar and Deflation Is the next Great Reset coming? CMTA Advanced Investment Workshop January 28, 20145 Presented by Douglas C. Robinson RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC SEC Registered

More information

Macro-economic risk and the outlook for aviation

Macro-economic risk and the outlook for aviation Macro-economic risk and the outlook for aviation 25 th January 2018, Dublin Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Macro matters 24% 20% Global GDP and RPK growth 12% 10% 16% 12% 8%

More information

Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century Project

Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century Project Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century Project Timothy J. Kehoe and Edward C. Prescott www.greatdepressionsbook.com Cole and Ohanian, The Great Depression in the United States from a Neoclassical Perspective,

More information

Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modelling and Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) presented by

Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modelling and Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) presented by Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modelling and Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) presented by Peter B. Dixon Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University to the Cost Benefit Analysis Forum Sydney July 17,

More information

Farm Sector Income & Finances 2016 Outlook. By Ryan Kuhns and Kevin Patrick March 16, 2016

Farm Sector Income & Finances 2016 Outlook. By Ryan Kuhns and Kevin Patrick March 16, 2016 Farm Sector Income & Finances 2016 Outlook By Ryan Kuhns and Kevin Patrick March 16, 2016 Background The Economic Research Service forecasts the farm sector s income statement and balance sheet Last released

More information

Nevada County Population Projections 2015 to 2034

Nevada County Population Projections 2015 to 2034 Nevada County Population Projections 2015 to 2034 Prepared By: Jeff Hardcastle, AICP Nevada State Demographer Nevada Department of Taxation Reno Office: 4600 Kietzke Lane, Building L Suite 235 Reno, NV

More information

U.S Cement Outlook IEEE. Ed Sullivan Group VP, Chief Economist

U.S Cement Outlook IEEE. Ed Sullivan Group VP, Chief Economist U.S Cement Outlook IEEE Ed Sullivan Group VP, Chief Economist 1 Construction Activity Billion Real $ 1,400 1,200 1,000 2014 = 2.5% 2015 = 5.6% 800 600 400 200 0 12 Year Peak-to- Peak Recovery 1998 2000

More information

Susan J. Adams, PhD IMF-PFTAC Coordinator

Susan J. Adams, PhD IMF-PFTAC Coordinator A MACROECONOMIC PORTRAIT OF THE PACIFIC: A Presentation for PEGASeS August 16, 2007 Susan J. Adams, PhD IMF-PFTAC Coordinator Compiled by the IMF Asia and Pacific Department Edited by PFTAC OUTLINE OF

More information

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer LECTURE 2 OVERVIEW OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION January 22, 2018 I. THE 1920S A. GDP growth and inflation B.

More information

Will 2016 Be the Last Hurrah for Commercial Real Estate? Presented By: John Chang First Vice-President Marcus & Millichap Research Services

Will 2016 Be the Last Hurrah for Commercial Real Estate? Presented By: John Chang First Vice-President Marcus & Millichap Research Services Will 2016 Be the Last Hurrah for Commercial Real Estate? Presented By: John Chang First Vice-President Marcus & Millichap Research Services Rising Uncertainty Creating Headwinds for Commercial Real Estate

More information

Energy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union

Energy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union Energy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union GTSP Annual Meeting May 29, 2008 Presented by M. Evans Looking back Overview Economic and demographic trends Energy trends and energy intensity Toward

More information

2005/06 BUDGET DIGEST

2005/06 BUDGET DIGEST 2005/06 BUDGET DIGEST Ministry of Finance United Republic of Tanzania TABLE OF CONTENTS No. List of Charts/Tables Page No. 1 Annual Growth in Real GDP 1 2 Trend in Real Agricultural Output 1 3 Trend in

More information

5. Golf Industry Trends and Developments in the US 6. The US Macro Economy Factors and Impact over Golf Industry

5. Golf Industry Trends and Developments in the US 6. The US Macro Economy Factors and Impact over Golf Industry TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Golf Industry Performance Worldwide 1.1. Overview 1.2. Global Golf Equipment Demand and Economy 2. The US Golf Industry Overview 2.1. Industry Segmentation 3. Industry Performance

More information

Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies

Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Marine Terminal Management Training Program October 15, 2007 Long Beach, CA Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. 1 Agenda Economic

More information

MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors

MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors INTRODUCTION The U.S. economy continues to grow at a gradual but also erratic pace The current recovery is one of the slowest in the post-wwii U.S. history.

More information

Fishing Industry in Prince Edward Island January 2009

Fishing Industry in Prince Edward Island January 2009 Fishing Industry in Prince Edward Island January 2009 INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS Did you know??? There are two lobster seasons in PEI: the Spring season and the Fall fishery. There were 22.9 million pounds of

More information

Kevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley

Kevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley Kevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley Economic & Commercial Real Estate Outlook Kevin Thorpe, Chief Economist 2012 Another Year Of Modest Improvement 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1

More information

OHRIA Ontario Horse Racing Industry Association

OHRIA Ontario Horse Racing Industry Association OHRIA Ontario Horse Racing Industry Association P.O. Box 456, Stn. B, Toronto, ON M9W 5L4 Tel: 416-679-0741 Fax: 416-679-9114 Email: ohria@ohria.com Submission to the Standing Committee of Finance and

More information

Growth Strategies and Dynamics in Developing Countries. Michael Spence Hamilton Project/CGD Forum Washington D.C. April 14, 2008

Growth Strategies and Dynamics in Developing Countries. Michael Spence Hamilton Project/CGD Forum Washington D.C. April 14, 2008 Growth Strategies and Dynamics in Developing Countries Michael Spence Hamilton Project/CGD Forum Washington D.C. April 14, 2008 1 The Focus The subject is sustained high inclusive growth and the policies,

More information

Your Texas Economy. Last updated: January 30, 2018

Your Texas Economy. Last updated: January 30, 2018 Your Texas Economy Last updated: January 30, 2018 Texas economy strong in 2017 2017 job growth was 2.4% Overview 2015/2016 job growth was much weaker due to the oil bust (1.3% and 1.2%, respectively) 2014

More information

Chapter 4: Changing Economic Structures of the Asian Economies

Chapter 4: Changing Economic Structures of the Asian Economies FINALLY REVISED August, 2008 Chapter 4: Changing Economic Structures of the Asian Economies Chapter 4: Changing Economic Structures of the Asian Economies 4.1 Selected Structural Parameters of the Asian

More information

Southwest Ohio Regional Economy in Context. Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group

Southwest Ohio Regional Economy in Context. Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group Southwest Ohio Regional Economy in Context Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group State of the Metro Area (in January Each Year) Total Employment has slowly increased in the last three years after

More information

Macro and Agricultural Economic Outlook FCL 2017 Annual Meeting. Tanner Ehmke, Manager Knowledge Exchange Division

Macro and Agricultural Economic Outlook FCL 2017 Annual Meeting. Tanner Ehmke, Manager Knowledge Exchange Division Macro and Agricultural Economic Outlook FCL 2017 Annual Meeting Tanner Ehmke, Manager Knowledge Exchange Division Today s presentation Macro Economy Agricultural Economy 2 The Market Cycle (we ve been

More information

East London Neighbourhood Profile

East London Neighbourhood Profile East London Neighbourhood Profile For further information contact: John-Paul Sousa Planning Research Analyst Direct: (519) 661-2500 ext. 5989 I email: jpsousa@london.ca Page 1 Page 2 Population Characteristics

More information

Outlook for the North American Softwood Lumber Industry

Outlook for the North American Softwood Lumber Industry Outlook for the North American Softwood Lumber Industry North American Conference October 2017 David Fortin Director, Wood Products Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information Quick Bio Master s

More information

The NAPM-Chicago Business Survey. Jack L Bishop Jr, PhD President, Kingsbury International Ltd

The NAPM-Chicago Business Survey. Jack L Bishop Jr, PhD President, Kingsbury International Ltd The NAPM-Chicago Business Survey Jack L Bishop Jr, PhD President, Kingsbury International Ltd 1 WHY ECONOMICS? THE REASON FOR STUDYING ECONOMICS IS TO AVOID BEING DECEIVED BY ECONOMISTS Joan Robinson,

More information

Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges. Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1

Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges. Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1 Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1 World GDP Growth Other Economies are Outpacing the U.S. Other, 7996.16, 11% Africa, 3962.51, 6% Latin

More information

What Can We Learn From the Current Crisis in Argentina?

What Can We Learn From the Current Crisis in Argentina? What Can We Learn From the Current Crisis in Argentina? Timothy J. Kehoe University of Minnesota and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis June 2003 www.econ.umn.edu/~tkehoe The economy of Argentina finds

More information

Farmland Booms and Busts: Will the Cycle be Broken?

Farmland Booms and Busts: Will the Cycle be Broken? Farmland Booms and Busts: Will the Cycle be Broken? Kansas Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers Salina, KS February 23 rd, 2012 Brian C. Briggeman Associate Professor and Director of the Arthur

More information

GROWING INEQUALITY AND ITS IMPACTS: Bulgaria and Romania

GROWING INEQUALITY AND ITS IMPACTS: Bulgaria and Romania GROWING INEQUALITY AND ITS IMPACTS: Bulgaria and Romania Vassil Tsanov Economic Research Institute of BAS Concluding Conference, Amsterdam, 4-5 Jun 2013 INCOME INEQUALITY DEVELOPMENT 1. Similarities: -

More information

How Capitalism Was Built

How Capitalism Was Built How Capitalism Was Built The Transformation of Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia Anders Åslund Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Washington, DC, September

More information

Index, nominal terms, 2010 = Energy. Agriculture Metals

Index, nominal terms, 2010 = Energy. Agriculture Metals Outline Broad commodity price trends Index, nominal terms, 2010 = 100 180 150 Energy 120 90 60 Agriculture Metals 30 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source:

More information

U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium. Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015

U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium. Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015 U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015 NORTH AMERICA INDUSTRY VOLUME SUMMARY 13.1 Total North America* (Mils.)

More information

The outlook: what we know, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns

The outlook: what we know, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns The outlook: what we know, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns 24 April 2017 Seoul Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1

More information

Central London Neighbourhood Profile

Central London Neighbourhood Profile Central London Neighbourhood Profile For further information contact: John-Paul Sousa Planning Research Analyst Direct: (519) 661-2500 ext. 5989 I email: jpsousa@london.ca Page 1 Page 2 Population Characteristics

More information

Perspectives on the long-term outlook for iron ore

Perspectives on the long-term outlook for iron ore Perspectives on the long-term outlook for iron ore John Barkas john.barkas@metalytics.com.au Iron Ore 2015 Perth WA, 13 July 2015 Disclaimer Metalytics is a consultancy based in Sydney, Australia that

More information

economic and financial outlook

economic and financial outlook Centre de référence en agriculture et agroalimentaire du Québec April 21, 2015 2015 2016 economic and financial outlook François Dupuis Vice-President and Chief Economist Desjardins Group Cooperating in

More information

colorado.edu/business/brd

colorado.edu/business/brd colorado.edu/business/brd Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Southwest Business Forum Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January

More information

The U.S. & World Economy: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

The U.S. & World Economy: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly The U.S. & World Economy: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Michael Strauss Chief Economist and Chief Investment Strategist Commonfund October 16, 2012 The U.S. & World Economy: The Good, the Bad, and the

More information

Business Outlook Report 2017

Business Outlook Report 2017 Business Outlook Report 217 Adam Davey Market Intelligence Manager Sponsored By: 7.3.217 Agenda 1 Oil and Gas Markets 2 Supply Chain Outlook - Revenues - Share Price 3 Upstream Outlook - Capex - Opex -

More information

2010 TRAVEL TIME REPORT

2010 TRAVEL TIME REPORT CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY EDUCATION POLICY COMMITTEE 2010 TRAVEL TIME REPORT BIENNIAL REPORT TO THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS ON TRAVEL TIME STATISTICS FOR CANDIDATES OF THE CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY June 2011

More information

Recent Developments in the U.S. Manufacturing Industry

Recent Developments in the U.S. Manufacturing Industry REGIONAL ECONOMIC BRIEFING Recent Developments in the U.S. Manufacturing Industry Kevin L. Kliesen Business Economist and Research Officer September 7, 2017 1 Disclaimer The views we will express today

More information

EFFECTS OF EXTENDING AND EXPANDING ENERGY-EFFICIENCY TAX DEDUCTION FOR COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS

EFFECTS OF EXTENDING AND EXPANDING ENERGY-EFFICIENCY TAX DEDUCTION FOR COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS EFFECTS OF EXTENDING AND EXPANDING ENERGY-EFFICIENCY TAX DEDUCTION FOR COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS Prepared by Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) Agenda Overview of 179D tax provision Energy efficiency and

More information

Final Report, October 19, Socioeconomic characteristics of reef users

Final Report, October 19, Socioeconomic characteristics of reef users Socioeconomic Study of Reefs in Southeast Florida - Executive Summary By Hazen and Sawyer in association with Florida State University and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, October 19, 2001

More information

Introduction to Topics in Macroeconomics 2

Introduction to Topics in Macroeconomics 2 to Topics in Macroeconomics 2 Chapter 1 Topics in Macroeconomics 2 Economics Division University of Southampton February 7 & 8, 2008 Chapter 1 1/33 Topics in Macroeconomics Course Outline Topics in Macroeconomics

More information

Economy-wide (general equilibrium) analysis of Philippines mitigation potential

Economy-wide (general equilibrium) analysis of Philippines mitigation potential Global Trade Analysis Project Economy-wide (general equilibrium) analysis of Philippines mitigation potential Erwin Corong Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University Crowne Plaza Hotel, Manila

More information

China s Industrial Capabilities and Trade

China s Industrial Capabilities and Trade China s Industrial Capabilities and Trade Loren Brandt Thomas Rawski June 16, 2005 Key Facts: China, 2003 Population: 1.3 billion (1 st ) GNP: $US 1.4 trillion (3 rd ) Foreign Trade: $US 850.1 (3rd) GNP

More information

Steel Market Outlook. AM/NS Calvert

Steel Market Outlook. AM/NS Calvert Steel Market Outlook AM/NS Calvert Agenda Economic indicators Key steel consuming markets and forecasted demand Steel consumptions trends Global steel markets and raw materials Comments on trade 1 U.S.

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview Coldwell Banker Commercial Group. November 6, 2017

Zions Bank Economic Overview Coldwell Banker Commercial Group. November 6, 2017 Zions Bank Economic Overview Coldwell Banker Commercial Group November 6, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow Breaks 23,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election

More information

An early warning system to predict house price bubbles

An early warning system to predict house price bubbles An early warning system to predict house price bubbles Christian Dreger, Konstantin Kholodilin DIW Berlin Why is the topic relevant? Bubbles in housing prices can impede the real economic evolution Prices

More information

RED DEER HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

RED DEER HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK RED DEER - JUNE 3, 2009 RED DEER HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK Regine durand Market Analyst - CMHC Prairie and Territories 50,000 48,000 46,000 44,000 42,000 40,000 38,000 36,000 34,000 32,000 30,000 28,000 Red

More information

Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle

Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle Michael Swanson Ph.D. Wells Fargo October 2017 Everything is connected we just don t see how. Connection corollary: Nothing natural moves in a straight

More information

Petrochemical Industry in China

Petrochemical Industry in China Petrochemical Industry in China - Growing Demand and Supply in the Future by Qu Guangdong Director, SRI Consulting Beijing Office 1 Chemical Industry In China Contents Macro Economic Situation in China

More information

The Great Convergence: China, India and the new global economy. Mark Thirlwell Program Director, International Economy July 2006

The Great Convergence: China, India and the new global economy. Mark Thirlwell Program Director, International Economy July 2006 The Great Convergence: China, India and the new global economy Mark Thirlwell Program Director, International Economy July 2006 India Two views of the largest economies in 2005 Top 12 economies by GDP,

More information

U.S. Economic and Apartment Market Overview and Outlook. July 15, 2014

U.S. Economic and Apartment Market Overview and Outlook. July 15, 2014 2014 U.S. Economic and Apartment Market Overview and Outlook July 15, 2014 U.S. Economic Overview U.S. GDP Growth Persistent Despite 1Q Polar Vortex Annualized Quarterly Percent Change 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%

More information