Market Perspectives for the German and European Agricultural Machinery Industry

Transcription

1 Market Perspectives for the German and European Agricultural Machinery Industry Gerd Wiesendorfer VDMA Agricultural Machinery Association Agrievolution Economic Committee Page 1

2 Business climate of German manufacturers remains positive Question: We consider our current business to be. very good good satisfying unfavourable very unfavourable 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: CEMA Business Barometer, evaluation of companies based in Germany Agrievolution Economic Committee Page 2

3 Outstanding performance of German machinery in major markets % change 2013 for the main markets of the German agricultural machinery industry 5,0 4,5 Germany 4,0 France 3,5 Total market (full year) Total market (Jan-Jun) German exports (Jan-Jun)* 3,0 USA 2,5 Russia 2,0 1,5 United Kingdom 1,0 0,5 Poland 0, Source: VDMA, own estimations and calculations; *for Germany: national production for German market Agrievolution Economic Committee Page 3

4 German Agricultural Machinery Exports Situation for main destination markets Exports from Germany to e 1200 in Mill. Euro Source: Federal German Statistics Agency, VDMA Agrievolution Economic Committee Page 4

5 Order backlog slightly below the level of the previous year New Orders of the German ag. machinery industry nominal, index 2010=100, without seasonal adjustment Current comparison to previous year: Jul - Sep 13: -2%; Sep 13: -3% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Quelle: VDMA, figures Zahlen related bezogen to manufacturers auf Landtechnik-Hersteller in Germany in Deutschland Agrievolution Economic Committee Page 5

6 Forecast for German agricultural machinery industry 2013: +7% to new all-time-high Turnover in Bn. Euro Nominal %-change 7,5 7,0 7,7 8, ,5 4,7 5,2 6,1 5,6 5, e e Source: VDMA Agricultural Machinery Association, Production in Germany Agrievolution Economic Committee Page 6

7 Marketing challenges for farmers in 2013 due to price drop for arable crops Average future price for quality wheat - per ton (mix of various stock exchanges) % Source: finanzen.net, VDMA Agricultural Machinery Association, last value for Oct Agrievolution Economic Committee Page 7

8 but overall farming conditions remain favourable Good quantities harvested in Europe EU +10% to 298 mn tons Above average results in Germany and France Compensation of poor 2012 results in Central / South East Europe Lower commodity prices Sharp drop for all arable crops (wheat, barley, rapeseed) with recent recovery Long-term comparison: average prices Positive milk and meat prices Comparably lower input cost Still above long-term average, but slight drop compared to 2012 (feed, fertiliser, energy) No major change in European agricultural policy (CAP) Budget for : 370 bn reduction by 12% (after inflation) Major tools (direct payments) remain unchanged Some regional and sectoral impact on markets can be expected Agrievolution Economic Committee Page 8

9 The mood amongst farmers is currently at a very high level German Agrarian Business Barometer Index: zero = mean Sources: Produkt+Markt, VDMA Agrievolution Economic Committee Page 9

10 Investment planning of German farmers over the previous year s level Share of agricultural holdings in Germany with investment plans for agricultural machinery (for half year ahead) % of interviewees January April July October Source: Agrarian Business Barometer, VDMA Agrievolution Economic Committee Page 10

11 German Agricultural Machinery Market Market Volume in Bn. Euros %-change in nominal terms 5,0 5,4 5, ,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,7 2,6 2,9 4,5 3,9 3,9 3,7 3,3 4, , ,5 1,0 0, , e e Source: VDMA Agricultural Machinery Association, forecast status: July Agrievolution Economic Committee Page 11

12 The high demand for tractors underlines this thesis Tractor registrations in units France* Germany e France* Germany * excluding telescopic handlers Sources: Federal German Traffic Agency (KBA), VDMA, AXEMA, Forecast 2013: VDMA Agrievolution Economic Committee Page 12

13 German Tractor Market New Registrations of Tractors in Germany (in units, total over all hp segments*) Jan Dec 2011: +26% Jan Dec 2012: +2% Jan Oct 2013: +/-0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: KBA * excluding ATVs and telescopic handlers Forecast 2013: ca. 35,500 units Agrievolution Economic Committee Page 13

14 Agricultural Machinery Market Development: Comparison for the EU and Germany Development of the Market Volumes in Bn. Euro 5,5 +14% +3% 30 Germany EU 5,0 26 4,5 Germany 4,0 +6% -1% 22 EU 28 3,5 3,0 18 2,5 2, e Germany 2,59 2,90 3,35 3,69 4,54 3,93 3,87 4,76 5,41 5,60 EU 17,71 18,57 20,05 22,44 25,52 21,04 20,58 24,31 25,77 25,42 14 Source: VDMA Agricultural Machinery Association, Eurostat, EU calculation including Croatia starting in Agrievolution Economic Committee Page 14