Key Figures and Trends for the Agricultural Machinery Industry

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1 Key Figures and Trends for the Agricultural Machinery Industry Update: November 2015 (monthly) Contact: Philip Nonnenmacher VDMA Agricultural Machinery Association Subject to correction VDMA

2 VDMA Production, Turnover, Trade, Order Intake and Business Climate

3 Global Turnover of the Agricultural Machinery Industry according to location Production Volumes in billion Euro ,4 8,2 7,2 6,6 6,0 22,6 22,8 21,8 6,8 6,6 21,2 18,5 5,7 4,8 5,8 5,9 4,3 5,6 20,0 20,4 4,6 4,4 4,8 5,5 5,1 19,0 19,5 6,9 6,4 6,6 4,5 3,9 18,5 5,0 5,9 5,0 4,7 4,5 4,0 4,5 4,0 16,1 18,5 18,3 4,4 3,5 3,1 3,5 4,2 14,4 17,5 4,0 3,2 8,0 3,8 3,2 6,7 11,3 4,8 9,5 21,4 23,5 27,2 21,6 22,0 26,6 28,7 29,3 28,2 25, e Rest of the World South / Central America North America (NAFTA) Rest of Asia Japan India China Turkey Rest of Europe European Union Source: VDMA (estimations, status September 2015) VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 3 02/11/2015

4 Turnover of the German Agricultural Machinery Industry Turnover in Bn. Euro 8,4 24 Nominal %-change 27 5,2 6,1 7,5 5,6 5,5 7,0 7,7 7,7 7,2 6, e 2016e e 2016e Source: VDMA Agricultural Machinery Association, production in Germany, updated in November 2015 VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 4 02/11/2015

5 German Agricultural Machinery Production Quarterly % change German ag machinery industry (each compared to previous year s period) Source: VDMA Agricultural Machinery Association VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 5 02/11/2015

6 German Agricultural Machinery Production Quarterly German Turnover in million st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter Source: VDMA VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 6 02/11/2015

7 German Agricultural Machinery Production Januar September, in million Turnover /14 Change Ag Machines 3.344, , , ,7-5,5% Tractors 2.683, , , ,4-6,2% Total 6.027, , , ,1-5,8% Germany Ag Machines 989,5 990,7 1023,9 1025,6 +0,2% Tractors 727,2 852,2 721,6 644,5-10,7% Total 1.716, , , ,2-4,3% Exports Ag Machines 2.355, , , ,1-7,8% Tractors 1.956, , , ,9-4,6% Total 4.311, , , ,9-6,4% Values: Jan-Sept in each year, in million Euro Source: VDMA Agricultural Machinery Association VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 7 02/11/2015

8 Current Order Book Situation New Orders of the German ag. machinery industry nominal, index 2010=100, without seasonal adjustment Sep 15/14: -11% Jul Sep 15/14: -7% 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: VDMA, figures related to manufacturers in Germany VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 8 02/11/2015

9 Current Order Book Situation for the German market New Orders of the German ag. machinery industry for the German market nominal, index 2010=100, without seasonal adjustment Sep 15/14: -40% Jul Sep 15/14: -24% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: VDMA, figures related to manufacturers in Germany VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 9 02/11/2015

10 German Agricultural Machinery Exports 2015 year-to-date results for the top 15 destinations Tractors Pos Destination % share Change 01-08/ USA 18,8 20% 2 France 16,6-17% 3 United Kingdom 10,1-17% 4 Italy 5,9 4% 5 Poland 4,9-10% 6 Spain 4,3-5% 7 Netherlands 3,6-6% 8 Switzerland 3,2 35% 9 Austria 2,7-15% 10 Belgium 2,1 4% 11 Australia 2,0-3% 12 Norway 2,0 22% 13 Belgium 1,9-22% 14 Romania 1,8-1% 15 Sweden 1,7-20% Agricultural machines Pos Destination % share Change 01-08/ France 13,9-11% 2 USA 8,0-6% 3 Russian Federation 6,0-30% 4 Poland 5,9-1% 5 United Kingdom 5,6-15% 6 Austria 5,4 4% 7 Netherlands 4,9-1% 8 Italy 3,2 9% 9 Czech Republic 3,0 3% 10 Switzerland 2,9 16% 11 Ukraine 2,8 5% 12 Hungary 2,5-19% 13 Bulgaria 2,4 31% 14 Denmark 2,3-11% 15 China 2,1-9% Remark: Tractor exports to the USA do not seem correct a request has been placed towards the German authorities. VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 10 02/11/2015

11 German Agricultural Machinery Exports Top 20 destinations Exports from Germany to e 1200 in Mill. Euro Source: Federal German Statistics Agency, VDMA (incl. estimation July 2015) VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 11 02/11/2015

12 Business Climate in the European Agricultural Machinery Industry CEMA Business Climate Index (CBI) CEMA Business Cycle CBI Present Situation Future Expectation Balance Expectations for the next 6 months Upswing Jan-Oct 2015 Boom Source: CEMA, October Recession Downswing Evaluation of current business Balance Source: CEMA Business Barometer, each value as an average of the last two months VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 12 02/11/2015

13 Market Development VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact:

14 Global Agricultural Machinery Market Trends Agritech Business Climate Index Possible range from -100 to Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13 Apr 14 Oct 14 Apr 15 Oct World* USA Brazil Western Europe Turkey Russia India China Korea Japan Remark: low number of participants in October 2015 for Brazil and Korea that might not be representative for the entire country Source: Agritech Business Barometer Survey, Agrievolution *weighted global average VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 14 02/11/2015

15 Agricultural Machinery Market Trends in the EU Country Index Spain France Italy Romania Czech Republic + Slovakia Switzerland Other new EU member states Poland Scandinavia (DK, N, S) + FIN Netherlands Belgium UK + Ireland Austria Germany CIS countries Status October 2015 Explanatory note: Possible index scale: from -100 to +100 All single market indications given in the survey are summed up and weighted according to the extent of expected decrease/increase positive index value illustrates prevailing expectation for increasing turnover in this market over the next six months negative index value illustrates prevailing expectation for decreasing turnover in this market over the next six months Country ranking ascending from highest increase resp. lowest decrease to lowest increase resp. highest decrese. VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 15 02/11/2015

16 German Agricultural Machinery Market Market Volume in Bn. Euros %-change in nominal terms 5,0 5,4 5,6 5,5 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,3 3,0 3,7 4,5 3,9 3,9 4,8 5, ,5 3 2,0 1, ,0 0, , e e Source: VDMA Agricultural Machinery Association, status: November 2015 VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 16 02/11/2015

17 German Agricultural Machinery Market by Segments in million e % change 2014 % change 2015 Tractors % -10% Soil Working Equipment % -14% Seed Drills % -7% Precision Seed Drills % -12% Mineral Fertilizer Spreaders % -11% Plant Protection Equipment** % -15% Mowers, Tedders, Rakes % -6% Combine Harvestes % -5% Balers % -4% Forage Harvesters % -2% Milking and Cooling Equipment % -16% Groundcare equipment % -4% Others* % -12% 0 Total market volume % -10% * parts, machines for feeding and transport, other harvesting and arable equipment, irrigation, slurry and manure equipment, others. Remark to soil w orking equipment, seeding, plant protection: values as of 2012 not comparable w ith previous years ** w ithout knapsack sprayers Status November 2015 VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 17 02/11/2015

18 German Tractor Market New Registrations of Tractors in Germany (in units, total over all hp segments*) total: 34,611 units (-4.5%) Jan-Sep 2015: -10% (-14% for > 50 hp tractors) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: KBA * excluding ATVs and telescopic handlers VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 18 02/11/2015

19 German Tractor Market Development with distinction of power range Registrations of new tractors in Germany Total >50 hp Total >50 hp Sources: KBA, VDMA, since 2010 excluding telescopic handlers VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 19 02/11/2015

20 Medium- and long-term influencing factors driving demand for agricultural machinery Increasing demand and Scarcity of agricultural products due to» further growing world population» higher living standards in large emerging economies (with changing consumption habits)» new forms of use of agricultural commodities for bioenergy» higher crop risks (drought, floods) leading to greater mechanization pressure in agriculture to» increase yields per hectare» open up new areas» produce high quality food The downturn since the middle of 2014 is a temporary phenomenon after having long and strong upturns (until 2008 and from 2010 until 2014). In the long term, the demand for modern machinery remains high. Especially in emerging markets, there is still great potential. VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 20 02/11/2015

21 Selected Agricultural Information VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact:

22 Long-term Development of Global Agricultural Production Gross agricultural production in billion USD at constant prices ( ) Cereals Livestock Source: FAO VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 22 02/11/2015

23 Long-term Development of Global Agricultural Production Regional comparison Gross agricultural production in billion USD at constant prices ( ) 1400 Europe 2500 Single Continents Asia Americas Africa World World Increments Agricultural production Population Total Annual Ø Total Annual Ø World 125% 2,4% 61% 1,4% Europe 36% 0,9% -1% 0,0% Asia 184% 3,1% 67% 1,5% Americas 103% 2,1% 57% 1,3% Africa 228% 3,6% 132% 2,5% 0 0 Source: FAO VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 23 02/11/2015

24 Agricultural Commodity Price Development Global price indices for different agrarian products (FAO) Deflated index basis = Meat Dairy Products Cereals Sugar Source: Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), last indicated month: September 2015 VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 24 02/11/2015

25 Continuous Decline on the Milk Market Average price paid to German farmers for 1 kg of milk (standard fat and protein values) Source: AMI, last value for September 2015 VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 25 02/11/2015

26 How do German farmers evaluate their economic situation? Evaluation of the main drivers Prices / harvest Policy Input cost Grains* (sale) Milk* Cattle* Pigs* Piglets (purchase)* Feed (purchase)* Maize for biogas (purchase)* Fertilizer (purchase) Seeds (purchase) Harvest result 2015 National agricultural policy National tax policy CAP (EU ag. policy) Competition within the EU Price for land rent* Interest rate for loansl Electricity cost Fuel cost Leasing for machines ,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1 (very) negative impact (very) positive impact September Ø values; * Filter: Enterprise has... (Cows/cattle/pigs/grains/rapeseed/biogas plant/kulturanbau/pachtfläche) Source: Agrarian Business Barometer VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 26 02/11/2015

27 Business Climate of German Farmers 32,2 39,4 33,9 12,0 36,2 21,0 35,3 34,1 33,1 37,2 30,7 26,6 21,2 14,4 14, ,1 14,7 19, Source: Agrarian Business Barometer VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 27 02/11/2015

28 Livestock and forage production particularly sensitive to the continued negative price development good (2,0) (2,5) satisfactory (3,0) (3,5) unfavorable (4,0) (4,5) Arable farms (n = 395) Forage production farms (n = 309) Livestock farms (n = 89) Ø Werte; 1 = sehr gut; 3 = befriedigend; 5 = sehr ungünstig Source: Agrarian Business Barometer VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 28 02/11/2015

29 Investment Plans of German Farmers Total investments* 28% 34% Machinery and equipment Farm buildings Courtyard and stable equipment Renewable energy Besides agriculture Electronics (retrofit systems)) 14% 18% 9% 13% 4% 6% 2% 2% 2% 3% <1% 1% Okt Okt * Excluding land purchase % Businesses with investment planning incl. investment probabilities (new or used) Source: Agrarian Business Barometer VDMA Key Figures and Trends - Contact: Page 29 02/11/2015

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