MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook

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1 MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook MBA of Alabama Annual Conference June 7, 2017 Presented by Lynn Fisher Mortgage Bankers Association 1

2 Summary of the MBA Outlook GDP Growth 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% Inflation 1.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% Unemployment 4.9% 4.4% 4.3% 4.4% Fed Funds 0.625% 1.375% 2.375% 3.125% 10-year Treasury 1.8% 2.6% 3.1% 3.5% 30-year Mortgage 3.6% 4.3% 5.0% 5.4% New home sales (000s) Existing home sales (000s) 5,440 5,779 6,020 6,104 Purchase originations ($B) 990 1,081 1,178 1,245 Refi originations ($ B) Total originations ($B) 1,891 1,596 1,588 1,640 Mortgage debt outstanding ($B) 9,670 10,041 10,437 10,806 Source: MBA Forecast May

3 Thousands of jobs Job Growth Starting Off Strong in Average Monthly Payroll Growth (100) (42) (200) (144) (300) (297) (400) (500) Jan (422) Feb Mar Apr Mar Source: BLS 3 3

4 Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Alabama s Unemployment Rate Remains Above US 12 US and AL Unemployment Rates (%) AL US Source: BLS 4

5 Steady Increase in Recent Wage Growth Percent 6.0 Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker Overall Prime-age Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 5 5

6 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Inflation Near 2 Percent Threshold 4.0 CPI and Selected Components Year over year percent change (1.0) (10.0) (2.0) (20.0) (3.0) (30.0) (4.0) (40.0) Motor Fuel (right axis) All Items (left axis) All Items exc Food & Energy (left axis) Source: BLS 6 6

7 Changes to Fed s Balance Sheet Are Coming Source: Federal Reserve, Wall Street Journal 7

8 Rates Expected to Increase Source: Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac, MBA 8 8

9 Index Rate Refinance Activity Has Declined Sharply Refinance Index and 30 Yr Fixed Mortgage Rate yr Fixed Rate Refinance Index 0.00 Refi Index (left axis) 30 Yr Fixed rate (right axis) Source: MBA Weekly Applications Survey 9 9

10 IMB Volume, Profits Down in Q1 Source: MBA s Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report, 10

11 Millions The Millennial Progression 26 Population Projections by 5-Year Age Group Source: Census 2014 National Population Projections 11 11

12 Growth in Owner-Occupier Households Picking Up 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,000 Chart of the Week - June 2, 2017 Annual Change in Owner-Occupied and Renter Households Q1 Homeowner (thous.) Renter (thous.) Homeownership Rate (%) 70% 69% 68% 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% 60% Source: Census 12

13 Jan 1999 Jun 1999 Nov 1999 Apr 2000 Sep 2000 Feb 2001 Jul 2001 Dec 2001 May 2002 Oct 2002 Mar 2003 Aug 2003 Jan 2004 Jun 2004 Nov 2004 Apr 2005 Sep 2005 Feb 2006 Jul 2006 Dec 2006 May 2007 Oct 2007 Mar 2008 Aug 2008 Jan 2009 Jun 2009 Nov 2009 Apr 2010 Sep 2010 Feb 2011 Jul 2011 Dec 2011 May 2012 Oct 2012 Mar 2013 Aug 2013 Jan 2014 Jun 2014 Nov 2014 Apr 2015 Sep 2015 Feb 2016 Jul 2016 Dec 2016 Low Inventories of Existing Homes for Sale Months 12 Existing Home Sales, Inventory and Months Supply Ths. 8, ,000 6,000 5, , ,000 2,000 1, Months supply of existing homes on market (Months, SA) Existing Home Sales (Ths., SAAR) Number of homes available for sale (Ths., SA) Source: NAR 13

14 Q1-91 Q4-91 Q3-92 Q2-93 Q1-94 Q4-94 Q3-95 Q2-96 Q1-97 Q4-97 Q3-98 Q2-99 Q1-00 Q4-00 Q3-01 Q2-02 Q1-03 Q4-03 Q3-04 Q2-05 Q1-06 Q4-06 Q3-07 Q2-08 Q1-09 Q4-09 Q3-10 Q2-11 Q1-12 Q4-12 Q3-13 Q2-14 Q1-15 Q4-15 Q3-16 Continued Strong House Price Growth FHFA Expanded HPI (quarterly, SA, 1991Q1 = 100) US Alabama Source: FHFA 14 14

15 Single Family Starts Still Recovering 2000 Single and Multi Family Housing Starts SAAR, 000s of units Housing Starts: 1 Unit (SAAR, Thous.Units) Housing Starts: Total Multifamily (SAAR, Thous.Units) Source: Census 15 15

16 The Supply of Non-Jumbo Mortgage Credit 110 Conforming Index (NSA, 3/2012=73.5) 500 Government Index (NSA, 3/2012=183.5) Source: Mortgage Bankers Association; Powered by AllRegs Market Clarity Source: Mortgage Bankers Association; Powered by AllRegs Market Clarity 16 16

17 Purchase Apps Running Slightly Ahead of Purchase Mortgage Applications Index (by week of the year, NSA) Week of the Year Source: MBA Weekly Applications Survey 17 17

18 Purchase Applications Increasing in AL Purchase Mortgage Applications Index - AL (by week of the year, NSA) Week of Year Source: MBA Weekly Applications Survey 18

19 17-Jan Mar May Jul Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Aug Oct Dec Feb-17 Apr Jan Mar May Jul Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Aug Oct Dec Feb-17 Government Share of Purchase Mortgage Applications and Average Loan Size FHA Purchase Share and Avg Loan Size VA Purchase Share and Avg Loan Size Average Loan Size (Thous. $, right axis) Share of Purchase Loan Applications (%, left axis) 50 5 Average Loan Size (Thous. $, right axis) Share of Purchase Loan Applications (%, left axis) Source: MBA Weekly Applications Survey 19

20 Declining Credit Scores as FHA Returns to Mission Chart of the Week February 10, 2017 FHA Average Credit Scores on New Endorsements Fully underwritten only, excludes streamlines Home Purchase Conventional to FHA Refi FHA to FHA Refi Source: HUD 20 20

21 ARM Share of Applications Increasing 9.0% ARM Loans as Share of All Applications NSA, based on loan count 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1 Yr ARM 3/1 ARM 5/1 ARM 7/1 ARM 10/1 ARM Other ARM Source: MBA Weekly Applications Survey 21

22 Billions of dollars in originations MBA Originations Forecast $4,000 Mortgage Originations: $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1, $1,000 $ ,245 1,178 1,081 $ Purchase Refi Source: MBA Forecast May

23 Contact Information & MBA Resources Lynn Fisher, Ph.D. Vice President & Executive Director of RIHA Research and Economics MBA Research: RIHA:

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