ASIAN PETROCHEMICALS MARKETS CONFERENCE
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1 6th Annual ASIAN PETROCHEMICALS MARKETS CONFERENCE April 19-20, 2017 Shanghai Marriott Hotel Pudong East Shanghai, China RUSSIAN (CIS) PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY. MARKET OUTLOOK. Andrey Zotov, SIBUR
2 CONTENT RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW : trends, challenges and opportunities for business POLYOLEFIN INDUSTRY LANDSCAPE PP, PE POLITICS AND POLYOLEFINS HOW ARE THEY TWO RELATED IN THE CASE OF RUSSIA? NEW CIS PROJECTS IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL POLYOLEFIN MARKET 2
3 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE REGIONS General Figures Feedstock / Converter Russia Europe - LPG - Naphta Russia CAGR, Russia Consumption Growth Outlook Europe 3 Source: state
4 FEEDSTOCK LANDSCAPE Available feedstock Natural gas production Russia 18% 50% 4% 19% USA The rest of the world 5% 3% Canada Iran Norway Oil production Russia 13% Saudi Arabia 56% The rest of the world 12% 9% 5% USA 5% Iran China 4 Source: state
5 PRODUCTION AND DEMAND OF PP IN THE WORLD CIS area North America +1,9% 10,8 9,3 9,7 7,8 7,8 7,8 8,7 7, Europe 3,5 +1% 2,0 1,3 1,5 1,8 9,8 9,6 9,3 9,3 9,3 9,3 10,5 0,8 1,0 1,3 9, Africa Middle East +4,1% +4,6% 11,3 8,3 7,1 6,4 4,9 4,1 5,1 3,3 Northeast Asia +5,4% 41,5 42,3 35,3 35,1 25,0 26,6 18,0 19, South America 2,4 2,6 2,4 2,6 +1,4% 2,9 3,0 3,2 2, ,2% 2,3 1,8 1,3 0,8 1,0 1, ,8 2, India +9,1% 11,4 7,5 8,1 5,5 3,0 4,1 4,6 3,1 Southeast Asia +4,7% 8,1 6,4 6,6 7,2 4,9 5,3 3,8 4, Production Demand ,9% Demand CAGR 5 Source: IIHS, Million tons
6 PRODUCTION AND DEMAND OF PE IN THE WORLD Production Demand North America +2,1% 25,8 27,9 18,9 17,5 17,9 19,9 14,5 15, South America 4,8 5,1 3,4 3,4 +1,9% Demand CAGR +1,9% 3,3 5,5 3,8 6, Europe 7,5 +0,8% 3,4 13,5 13,5 14,4 15,1 1,9 2,3 2,6 3,0 2,0 13,3 12,8 12,2 12, Africa +4,7% 5,5 4,5 3,6 2,7 3,2 1,0 0,8 1, CIS area India +2,8% 3, Middle East +4,7% 25,8 21,3 17,5 11,6 4,7 5,8 7,4 9, ,2% 7,6 5,0 4,9 3,4 1,8 2, ,1 6, Northeast Asia +5,4% 39,5 29,6 32,6 22,2 27,3 22,3 18, Southeast Asia 48, ,7% 11,0 11,0 9,5 9,0 7,7 7,1 5,6 5, Source: IHS, Million tons
7 PP and PE PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION & GROWTH RATE 7 Source: IHS
8 RUSSIAN ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE Dynamics of GDP growth, % Index of industrial production, % 0,6 1,1 1,6-0,2-2, Interest rate, % -3, Inflation, % 12,7 10,6-8% 9,8 12,9 5,4-9% 4, Exchange rate (Rouble/EUR) 68,0 74,0-15% 62,5 Exchange rate (Rouble/USD) -12% 66,3 66,8 58, Source: Official state statistics, Central Bank, SIBUR
9 RUSSIAN PP MARKET LANDSCAPE Consumption forecast Comments Other TF Pipes Compounds NW BOPP Raffia IM +7% +2% +9% % % DRIVERS: 1.Food industry 2.Retail 3.Agriculture 4.Chemical industry 5.Household chemicals 6.Home appliances THREATS: 1. Construction industry Source: SIBUR, Strategy&
10 RUSSIAN PP MARKET LANDSCAPE (PRICING) Volume of PP total production in Russia, mt/year +199% ,035 1,227 1,378 1, Source: SIBUR, MRC, Alliance Analytics
11 IMPORT SUBSTITUTION AND ROUBLE DEVALUATION SUPPORT RUSSIAN POLYOLEFINS DEMAND GDP -3,9% -1,4% Industrial production -3,0% -1,8% Housing construction -18,0% -0,8% Retail sales -3,1% -0,2% Home appliances -5,0% -1,8% Agriculture 1,0% -1,0% Textile production -8,8% 1,0% Roads construction 3,0% 2,9% Pipes 0,9% 0,6% Cars production -39,1% -3,6% Food industry 0,3% 1,8% Impact on PE domestic market Demand for PE in Russia 2015 to 2014 was stable. In the most saturated LDPE and HDPE segments growth was slightly negative (-2%) although LLDPE has shown positive growth (+5%). Demand growth from local PE flexible and rigid packaging compensates slowdown in pipes and construction applications Impact on PP domestic market Rouble devaluation makes import of PP and PP final goods more expensive, encouraging import substitution. Growth in pipes production and especially food packaging supports PP market growth (11% in 2015) 11 Source: Official State statistics
12 RUSSIAN AND CIS POLYOLEFIN CAPACITIES 2017 Europe Karpatneftehim, Kalush HPDE: 100 Polimir, Novopolotsk HDPE: 90 / LDPE: 40 NPP Neftekhimiya, Moscow PP: 120 Kazanorgsintez, Kazan LDPE: 225 / HDPE: 500 NKNH, Nijnekamsk HD/LL: 250 / PP 215 UOS, Ufa LDPE: 100 / PP: 130 Tobolsk-Polymer, Tobolsk PP: 500 Gazprom Neftekhim, Salavat HDPE: 120 / LDPE 40 Zabsib-2, Tobolsk PP: 500/ PE: 1500 Polyom, Omsk PP: 180 Russia Tomskneftekhim, Tomsk PP: 140 / LDPE: 250 Rosneft, Angarsk LDPE: 80 Total LINIK, Luganskaya obl. PP Stavrolen, Budenovsk HDPE: 250 / PP: 120 TKNPZ, PP: 90 Azerkhimia, Sumganit, LDRE:138 Shurtan GHK, HDPE: 125 Ustyurtskiy GHK, PE: 390 / PP: 80 Neftekhim Ltd PP: 30 China 4,283 PP 1,625 HDPE 1,415 LDPE 993 HDPE/LLDPE Source: Sibur; thousand tons
13 CAPACITY EXPANSIONS IN CIS Sibur s share is 47 % on all new capacity expansions 13 Source: SIBUR, Alliance Analytics
14 CIS PP MARKET FORECAST Market Balance PP, kt Russia will become net exporter of PP in several years Production Net Import Consumption Production Net Export Consumption 287 3,5% 6,5% 6,0% The internal consumption growth is forecasted to be stable year to year PPH PPC PPR 14 Source: SIBUR, Alliance Analytics, Russian official statistics
15 CIS PE MARKET FORECAST Market Balance PE, kt ,9% 5,4% 0,6% Russia will become net exporter of PE in several years. The internal consumption growth will continue after Production Net Import Consumption Production Net Export Consumption HDPE LLDPE LDPE 15 Source: SIBUR Alliance Analytics, Russian official statistics
16 OUR NEW PROJECT ZAPSIBNEFTEHIM (start in 2020) Location: Product: Capacity: Product: Capacity: Tobolsk Polypropylene (homo + random + block) tones a year Polyethylene (LLDPE + HDPE) tones a year Russia 16
17 ZAPSIBNEFTEKHIM: EXPANSION OF POLYOLEFINS PRODUCTION IN TOBOLSK Unique growth opportunities 1,400 1,200 1, (USD per tonne) Light olefins (2019) NA avg. WE avg. Tomskneftekhim Tobolsk-Polymer ZapSibNeftekhim ME avg. / NA ethane Project Overview Greenfield construction of ethylene cracking unit and polyolefin production complex in Tobolsk within the SIBUR s Tobolsk petrochemical hub Configuration: Cracking unit: 1.5 mtpa of ethylene, 500 ktpa of propylene, 100 ktpa of crude C 4 (LINDE AG, Germany) PE production units: 1.5 mtpa of PE (INEOS, the UK) PP production unit: 0.5 mtpa of PP (LyondellBasell, the Netherlands) Russian State support for the project expected through investment agreements with the Tobolsk regional Government and City Administration Strong Position on the Global Cost Curve (1) China coal-to-olefins NEA avg. ME Middle East NA North America NEA Northeast Asia WE Western Europe 000 tonnes Ethane 300 t Propane t N-Butane t 1,500 t Ethylene cracking unit (ECU) Production Scheme Ethylene 1,500 Propylene 525 HDPE 350 t Ineos Innoven S HDPE 350 t Ineos Innoven S LLDPE / HDPE 400 t Ineos Innovene G LLDPE / HDPE 400 t Ineos Innovene G PP 500 t LBI Spheripol , , , , ,000 Cumulative capacity ( 000 tonnes) 17 Source: SIBUR, Alliance Analytics, November 2014
18 General View of Construction Site Winter
19 Construction of steam cracker Spring
20 Construction of PP unit and rail-road transportation infrastructure Winter
21 ZAPSIBNEFTEKHIM (ZAPSIB-2): MAJOR EXPANSION OF POLYOLEFINS PRODUCTION IN TOBOLSK 21
22 SIBUR S TOBOLSK PETROCHEMICAL HUB IS STRATEGICALLY LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FEEDSTOCK BASE TOBOLSK Founded in 1587 Population 98,3 th people Average temperature January -17 o C March -7 o C July +18 o C October +2 o C Western Siberia 48 bln bbl 22 tcm Western Europe SIBUR s petrochemical hub in Tobolsk Largest oil & gas reserves region in Russia China and Northeast Asia Source: IEA 22 SIBUR s production assets Feedstock & Energy segment Petrochemicals segment Saudi Arabia Jeddah port Production sites with joint operations of Feedstock & Energy and Petrochemicals segments SIBUR s JVs
23 ZapSibNeftekhim is in top five biggest petrochemical projects in the world Country Company Location/ proj. name Project rating Capacity, KT Start-up year Projects geography 1 China Hanbang PC Jiangyin PTA China Yizheng/Oriental JV Yangzhou PTA Russia SIBUR Amur GCC Ethylene beyond 1500, PE USA SASOL Lake Charles Ethylene 1550, PE Russia SIBUR ZapSibNeftekhim Ethylene 1500, PE 1500, PP USA ExxonMobil Baytown Ethylene1500, PE Saudi Arabia Sadara Chemical Al Jubail Ethylene1500, PE USA Here Chevron is Phillips where SIBUR s Cedar Bayou projects for Ethylene1500, PE USA Dow would have Freeport been Ethylene1500, PE Taiwan Oriental PC Taiwan Kuan Yin PTA India Reliance Industries Jamnagar Ethylene1350, PE 950, PP 135, MEG China Yangzijiang PC Zhangjiagang Propylene (propane dehydration) , China Fujian Meide PC Fuzhou Propylene (propane dehydration) , China Baota PC Yinchuan PTA China Zhuhai Biyang Zhuhai PTA India JBF Industries ltd. Mangalore PTA Russia TAIF НКНХ Ethylene1200, PE 900, PP , China Jiaxing PC Jiaxing PTA USA Mossi & Ghisolfi Corpus Christi PTA 1200, PET China Xinjiang Zhongtai Urumqi PTA USA Ascend Choc. Bayou Propylene (propane dehydration) USA FPC USA Point Comfort Ethylene1150, PE 800, PP 450, MEG India Reliance Industries Dahej PTA 1150, PET India OPAL Dahej Ethylene1100, PE 1040, PP Oman Oman Oil/LG Intl JV Sohar PTA 1100, PET Vietnam Long Son PC Co. Ba Ria-Vung Tau Ethylene 1050, PE 950, PP Mexico Braskem-Idesa JV Ethylene XXI Ethylene 1000, PE Malasia Petronas RAPID Ethylene 1000, PP 900, MEG China CNOOC Huizhou Ethylene 1000, PE 720, PP China Sinopec Hainan R&C Hainan Ethylene 1000, PE 600, PP Iran Kavyan PC Bandar Assaluyeh Ethylene China Sinopec Guandong Ethylene 1000, derivatives China China Chengda Eng. Chengdu PTA 1000, PET China Henan Longyu Kaifeng PTA Kazakhstan LG Chem/KPI Atyrau Ethylene 840, PE UAE TAKREER Ruwais Propylene (propane dehydration) USA Enterprise Mont Belvieu Propylene (propane dehydration) India Indian Oil Paradip Propylene (propane dehydration) 700, PP China Sinopec Zhongtian Ordos CTO (Ethylene670, Propylene 700), PE, PP USA Lotte Chemical Lake Charles PCC: MEG China Ningbo Fuji Ningbo Propylene (propane dehydration) 660, PP China Shenhua Group Yuling CTO (Ethylene610, Propylene 610) China CPI/Total JV Ordos CTO (Ethylene400, Propylene 600), PE, PP China Shanghai PC Jinshan Ethylene 600, PE 300, PP Юж.Корея SK Advanced Ulsan Propylene (propane dehydration) China Zhejiang Satellite PC Pinghu Propylene (propane dehydration) China Jilin Bohai Biochem Jilin Bio-EO USA Oxy/Mexichem JV Ingleside Ethylene Canada Williams Company Redwater Propylene USA Indorama (Alpha PET) Decatur PET Sources: CapitalIQ, Alliance Analytics, company reports, specialty mass media, commodity markets analysis
24 RUSSIAN POLYOLEFIN EXPANSION FORECAST RUSSIA Europe South America Africa China South Asia 24
25 SUMMARY I. Russian polyolefin industry is still growing despite all the negative economic trends II. New CIS projects are on stream and push the global polyolefin industry a lot. III. SIBUR s long-term globalization strategy is based on taking full advantage of its leading feedstock position to produce the lowest comparative cost products. IV. Russian export will be focused on CIS, Europe, China and developing countries. 25
26 Thank you!
27 Disclaimer The information contained herein pertaining to SIBUR (the Company ) has been provided by the Company solely for information purposes. By reading this document, you agree to be bound by the limitations set out below. The material contained in this document is presented solely for information purposes and is not to be construed as providing investment advice. As such, it has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. It should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. There may be material variances between estimated data set forth in this document and actual results, and between the data set forth in this document and corresponding data previously published by or on behalf of the Company. This document contains forward-looking statements, including (without limitation) statements, based on the current expectations and projections of the Company about future events and are subject to change without notice. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, contained herein are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, such that future events and actual results may differ materially from those set forth in, contemplated by or underlying such forwardlooking statements. The Company may not actually achieve or realize its plans, intentions or expectations. There can be no assurance that the Company s actual results will not differ materially from the expectations set forth in such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ from such expectations include, but are not limited to, the state of the global economy, the ability of the petrochemical sector to maintain levels of growth and development, risks related to petrochemical prices and regional political and security concerns. The above is not an exhaustive list of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations set forth in such forward-looking statements. The Company and its Affiliates are under no obligation to update the information, opinions or forward-looking statements in this document. 27
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