OIL MARKET OUTLOOK, MAIN UNCERTAINTY FACTORS & PRICE INDICATIONS TO Symposium Energieinnovation
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1 OIL MARKET OUTLOOK, MAIN UNCERTAINTY FACTORS & PRICE INDICATIONS TO Symposium Energieinnovation 23 February 2010 Johannes Benigni JBC Energy GmbH 10. Februar 2010 Research Energy Studies Consulting Training
2 Disclaimer All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements (including those depicted in graphical form) are statements of future expectations that are based on JBC Energy s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things statements expressing JBC Energy s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as anticipate, believe, could, estimate, expect, intend, may, plan, objectives, outlook, probably, project, will, forecast, predict, think, seek, target, risks, goals, should and similar terms and phrases. All forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers/audience should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation. Neither JBC Energy nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation. Any persons acting on information contained in this presentation does so solely at their own risk. JBC Energy is not responsible for the accuracy of data collected from external sources and will not be held liable for any errors or omissions in facts or analysis contained in this presentation. 23 February 2010 Slide 2
3 Preise Nymex WTl & US Dollar Vs Euro [$/bbl, USD] WTI Nymex - left scale Dollar / Euro Exchange Rate - right scale Source: Nymex & ECB Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan February 2010 Slide 3
4 Preise - Volumen 2003 Daily Average Of Volumes ICE Brent Traded On ICE ICE Brent Sources: ICE February 2010 Slide 4
5 Preise Crude Oil Price and Influence of Managed Money [$/bbl] Weekly Average of NYMEX WTI Frontline Prediction based on Managed Money Long Positions Data on managed money long positions improves the naïve forecast considerably 0 Aug 06 Nov 06 Feb 07 May 07 Aug 07 Nov 07 Feb 08 May 08 Aug 08 Nov 08 Feb 09 May 09 Aug 09 Nov 09 Feb February 2010 Slide 5
6 Preise 60 Estimated Oil in Floating Storage as of end-january million barrels of middle distillates 2-4 million barrels crude million barrels crude 5-10 million barrels of middle distillates EUROPE USGC 3.5 million barrels Gasoline PG Asia/Pacific Floating Storage [mbbls] Crude Gas Oil/Jet/Kero WAF end-mar ' million end-apr ' barrels crude 10 end-may' end-jun ' end-jul ' end-aug ' end-sep ' end-oct ' Source: Floating JBC Energy estimate based end-jan on end-feb end-mar end-apr end-may end-june end-nov end-july'09 end-aug end-sept end-oct info from Storage SSY, Platts, Charles R. Weber, end-dec ' Argus, [mbbls] WSJ, Gibson, Thomson Reuters end-jan ' February 2010 Slide 6
7 Preise - Gas Russia Natural Gas Title Production [unit] [bcm; $/MMBtu] Average Production Production German Border Gas Price - right scale Source: Federal State Statistics Service Russia, JBC Energy Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec February 2010 Slide 7
8 Preise - Gas 35 European Price Comparison [$ per MMBtu] NWE Gas Oil 0.1% FOB NWE 1% FOB German Border Nat Gas Price JBC View 0.1% Gas Oil JBC View LSFO JBC View German Border Price Dec 04 Jun 05 Dec 05 Jun 06 Dec 06 Jun 07 Dec 07 Jun 08 Dec 08 Jun 09 Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun February 2010 Slide 8
9 Angebot Gas Reserven 50 Proved Natural Gas Reserves 2008 [trillion cubic metres] Source: Oil & Gas Journal Russia Iran Qatar Saudi A. UAE USA Nigeria 23 February 2010 Slide 9
10 Angebot Gas Natural Gas Production Growth in Selected Countries [bcm] Qatar Iran China Algeria Saudi Arabia Australia Turkmenistan Indonesia UAE Norway Trinidad and Tobago Egypt Oman Iraq Malaysia Yemen Uzbekistan Mexico Russia Netherlands Canada United States UK February 2010 Slide 10
11 Angebot Öl Reserven OPEC/Non-OPEC Oil Reserves (2009) OPEC holds 70% of world reserves but produces only 40% of global oil production at the moment!!! Non-OPEC Oil Reserves: ~ 407 billion barrels as of January % 70% OPEC Oil Reserves: ~ 935 billion barrels as of January 2009 World Proven Oil & Gas Reserves by Type of Company [%] Super Majors 3% Source: OGJ 2009 Other Private Companies Russian State-Controlled Companies National Iranian Oil Company 25% Private companies = 28% Kuwait Petroleum Company Saudi Aramco 25% Pemex (Mexico) Iraqi Oil Companies Other NOCs The proportion would be more in favour of NOCs if only oil was accounted for! 6% 1% 9% NOCs = 72% 13% Source: IEA WEO % 13% 23 February 2010 Slide 11
12 Angebot Nicht-OPEC-Staaten Oil Supply Growth of Selected Non-OPEC Countries ['000 b/d] Brazil Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Canada Colombia Congo Indonesia China Vietnam 2010 N. Zealand 2011 Russia Australia 2012 Sudan 2013 Oman Malaysia Yemen Syria US UK Mexico Norway -1, ,000 1, February 2010 Slide 12
13 Angebot Nicht-OPEC-Staaten Non-OPEC Supply Growth by Source [mbpd] Processing Gains Other Liquids NGLs Crude Total Supply Growth February 2010 Slide 13
14 Angebot OPEC OPEC Crude Output (Historic Members) and OPEC Share in World Crude Supply [mbpd;%] OPEC Crude Production - left scale Share of OPEC in World Crude Output - right scale New High (absolute) in 2008: 32 mbpd High (absolute) in 1977: 31.6 mbpd 60% 55% 50% 45% 25 40% OPEC cuts and Indonesia leaving the organisation result in lower output in % 10 30% % 23 February 2010 Slide 14
15 Angebot Szenarien Iraqi Crude Production Capacity - Various Scenarios [mbpd] Rumaila West Qurna Zubair West Qurna Phase 2 Majnoon Halfaya Gharaf Badrah Qayara Najmah Other Fields JBC Energy Base Case JBC Energy - Optimistic Scenario Source: JBC Energy, Iraqi Oil Ministry February 2010 Slide 15
16 Angebot Szenarien 6.4 Iranian Crude Production [mbpd] Iranian Crude Output - Base Case Scenario Iranian Crude Output - Worst Case Scenario Iranian Crude Output - Smooth Regime Change Scenario Production levels would be close to lows during the early 1980s and close to current crude intake into refineries February 2010 Slide 16
17 Angebot Szenarien Change in OPEC Oil Output by Historic Member Countries (Basis 1979) ['000 b/d] Iran Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia Venezuela Qatar Libya Indonesia UAE Algeria Nigeria Ecuador Gabon Source: OPEC, BP, JBC Energy February 2010 Slide 17
18 Angebot Szenarien 14 OPEC Available Spare Capacity [mbpd] Spare Capacity Base Case Optimistic Scenario - Iraq Best Case Scenario - Iraq Worst Case Scenario - Iran 8 6 Avg. spare capacity February 2010 Slide 18
19 Angebot Szenarien OPEC Available Spare Capacity [mbpd] Additional Global Demand Increase Additional Non-OPEC Supply Decline New Spare Capacity - Optimistic Scenario Iraq February 2010 Slide 19
20 Nachfrage World Oil Demand Growth vs. GDP Growth (Y-o-Y) [mbpd, %] % % % % % % World Oil Demand Growth OECD Oil Demand Growth Non-OECD Oil Demand Growth World GDP Growth - right scale -1.0% -2.0% -3.0 Source: JBC Energy, Global Insight % 23 February 2010 Slide 20
21 Nachfrage 900 Passenger Car Ownership and per Capita GDP Passenger cars per 1000 people China India United States Germany Japan South Korea per capita GDP (based on purchasing power parity, '000 USD) Source: UN, IMF 23 February 2010 Slide 21
22 Nachfrage China & India Demand Scenarios Based On Per Capita Consumption [mbpd] China Oil Demand China Oil Demand at double per capita growth India Oil Demand - right scale India Oil Demand at double per capita growth - right scale Per Capita Oil Demand [bbl/year/capita] China D/C Average growth in C hinese D/C 3.2% China D/C double growth speed India D/C Average growth in Indian D/C 1.7% India D/C double growth s peed J apanes e D/C US D/C China: +15 mbpd India: +2.6 mbpd February 2010 Slide 22
23 Preisausblick 160 Oil Price Forecast [$/bbl] February 2010 Slide 23
24 Thank You! Consulting Research - Training 23 February 2010 Slide 24
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