Economic Outlook. Peter Rupert Professor and Chair Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project

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1 Economic Outlook Peter Rupert Professor and Chair Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project League of California Cities Monterey, CA December 3, 2014

2 Economic Update economic data providing mixed signals but they always do!!! important to take a long-run view

3 Real GDP Logged Billions of 2009$, Seasonally Adjusted Economic Forecast Project Source: BEA

4 Real Per Capita GDP Log, 1990 int. GK$ Economic Forecast Project Source: Angus Maddison

5 Real GDP Logged Billions of 2009$, Seasonally Adjusted Linear Trend Economic Forecast Project Source: BEA

6 GDP Growth During an Expansion Average, annualized rate of change Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 Economic Forecast Project Trough Date Source: BEA

7 Forward Guidance for Today s Talk describe current conditions globally, nationally and locally discuss Fed policy reactions QE3...gone but not forgotten CA outlook

8 Real GDP Growth Annualized percent change from last quarter quarterly change at an annual rate year over year change 2014 Q3 annualized growth rate Economic Forecast Project Source: BEA

9 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Annualized percent change from last quarter Economic Forecast Project Source: BEA

10 S&P 500 Index 2000= Economic Forecast Project Source: BLS

11 Why Are You Spending so Little? uncertainty? already have everything? other issues out there in the world...

12 How Does the U.S. Compare? U.S. and some trading partners doing well...and some not...

13

14

15 How Bad was Japan s Lost Decade

16 How Bad was Japan s Lost Decade Europe wishes it were Japan!!!

17 Real Gross Domestic Product United States (2007Q4=100) Japan (1991Q2=100) Europe (2008Q1=100) Cooley Rupert European Economic Snapshot; Source: Eurostat Quarters from Peak

18 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures United States (2007Q4=100) Japan (1991Q2=100) Europe (2008Q1=100) Cooley Rupert European Economic Snapshot; Source: Eurostat Quarters from Peak

19 Real Gross Fixed Capital Formation United States (2007Q4=100) Japan (1991Q2=100) Europe (2008Q1=100) Cooley Rupert European Economic Snapshot; Source: Eurostat Quarters from Peak

20 Financial Landscape households deleveraging portfolio rebalance

21 Household Leverage Liabilities to Income Economic Forecast Project Source: Flow of Funds, Federal Reserve

22 Checkable Deposits and Currency, Households Percent of GDP Economic Forecast Project Source: Flow of Funds, Federal Reserve

23 Household Net Worth (Assets Liabilities) Ratio to GDP Economic Forecast Project Source: Flow of Funds, Federal Reserve

24 Household s Summary...so far household net worth up consumption growth slow deleveraging

25 Financial Landscape business sector net worth still about 10% below peak cash holdings up

26 Net Worth, Nonfinancial Corporate Business Percent of GDP Economic Forecast Project Source: Flow of Funds, Federal Reserve

27 Checkable Deposits and Currency, NFCB Percent of GDP Economic Forecast Project Source: Flow of Funds, Federal Reserve

28 Banks Awash in Cash Too

29 Reserves Billions of Dollars Excess Reserves Required Reserves Total Reserves Cash Assets Economic Forecast Project Source: FRB St. Louis

30 And How About California s Finances? getting better...

31

32

33 Making Sense of Policy? to what does the Fed respond? two key elements inflation labor market

34 To What Does the Fed Respond? inflation Inflation has continued to run below the Committee s longer-run objective. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined somewhat; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. (FOMC statement, October 29, 2014)

35 PCE, Chain type Price Index Percent change from last year Economic Forecast Project Source: BEA

36 5 Year Inflation Expectations Percent Economic Forecast Project Source: FRB St. Louis

37 To What Does the Fed Respond?...and wage growth is subdued

38 Hourly Earnings, Production and Salary Workers Percent change from a year ago Economic Forecast Project Source: BLS

39 The Point? no inflationary pressures...now or later

40 The Labor Market On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing. (FOMC statement, October 29, 2014)

41 Unemployment Rate Percent Economic Forecast Project Source: BEA

42 Labor Force Participation Rate Percent All Age Age 55 and over Economic Forecast Project Source: BLS

43 Employment to Population Ratio Percent Economic Forecast Project Source: BLS

44 The Taylor Rule and Monetary Policy Measures how the Fed responds (historically)

45 Taylor Rule FF =.5*(6.0 URATE) INF +.5*(INF 2) Implied Taylor Rule Effective Fed Funds Rate Economic Forecast Project Source: BLS, BEA

46

47 A California Perspective employment diffusion index up...a quick aside

48 Unemployment Rate in Monterey County, Unadjusted 20 Percent (%) Source: California Employment Development Department Year

49 Unemployment Rate, Monterey County 20 Original Seasonally Adjusted Percent (%) Source: California Employment Development Department Year

50 Unemployment Rate in Santa Clara County, Unadjusted 12 Percent (%) Source: California Employment Development Department Year

51 Unemployment Rate, Santa Clara County 12 Original Seasonally Adjusted Percent (%) Source: California Employment Development Department Year

52 ...A California Perspective now back to the program

53

54

55 Housing a large decline prices rising...how fast? how far?

56 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) Index (100 = Max Value) California [ $ 538,300 ] United States [ $ 196,400 ] efp.com Source: Zillow Research Data Note: Maximum value in brackets.

57 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), by County Index (100 = Pre 2012 Max Value) San Francisco [ $ 822,500 ] Los Angeles [ $ 568,500 ] California [ $ 538,300 ] Santa Barbara [ $ 692,400 ] Monterey [ $ 685,600 ] San Joaquin [ $ 415,100 ] efp.com Source: Zillow Research Data Note: Pre 2012 Max Value value in brackets.

58 0 Peak to Trough Percentage Change, by County Bottom Six Counties Top Six Counties San Joaquin Stanislaus Solano Colusa Yuba Lake California Orange Humboldt San Mateo Santa Clara Marin San Francisco

59 Peak to Current Value Percentage Change, by County Bottom Six Counties Top Six Counties Lake Lassen San Joaquin Madera Colusa Stanislaus California Siskiyou Alameda Marin San Mateo Santa Clara San Francisco

60 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) YoY Growth Rate (%) Santa Barbara, CA California United States efp.com Source: Zillow Research Data

61 Final Thoughts Although mixed signals, on net, positive signs QE3...gone but not forgotten Fed has created room to bring back QE if necessary tighten sooner rather than later CA rebounding on most fronts

62 Thank You

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