Can copper mine supply keep pace with demand?
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1 Can copper mine supply keep pace with demand? Metal Bulletin Copper Conference Milan March 11 th
2 Disclaimer Wood Mackenzie Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by Wood Mackenzie. The presentation is provided to clients and its contents and conclusions are confidential and may not be disclosed to any other persons or companies without Wood Mackenzie s prior written permission. The information upon which this report is based comes from our own experience, knowledge and databases. The opinions expressed in this report are those of Wood Mackenzie. They have been arrived at following careful consideration and enquiry but we do not guarantee their fairness, completeness or accuracy. The opinions, as of this date, are subject to change. We do not accept any liability for your reliance upon them. 2
3 Are miners getting operating costs under control? Average operating cash-flow generated by primary copper mining industry Cost / Margin ($/lb) LONG TERM Mine Site Costs Indirect Costs Operating cashflow Tot. Net Revenue (after realisation costs) Source: Wood Mackenzie 3
4 Capital expenditure squeezing margins Average residual cash-flow generated by primary copper mining industry Cost / Margin ($/lb) LONG TERM Mine Site Costs Indirect Costs Sustaining Capex Expansion Capex Tot. Net Revenue (after realisation costs) Residual cashflow (pre tax) Source: Wood Mackenzie 4
5 How will the theoretical supply gap be closed Demand for additional mine production capability 28 Mt Cu Mining companies looking to reduce costs due to downward pressure on metal prices New growth markets Substitution Increased scrap usage Requirement for 6.0Mt of new mine production capability by Source Wood Mackenzie Available from base case mines plus highly probable projects Demand for mine production capability (refined metal) 5
6 Brownfield projects an important contributor to copper mine supply Demand for additional greenfield projects Mt Cu Mine life extensions Restarts Expansions Switch from oxide to sulphide ore 3.8Mt of new production capability needed from greenfield projects Source Wood Mackenzie Brownfield Contribution Available from base case mines plus highly probable projects Demand for mine production capability (refined metal) 6
7 A LT price of $3.50lb should still incentivise sufficient new capacity Risk adjusted incentive price curve 750 Risk Adjusted PIP 12% IRR (c/lb Cu) Cumulative Production (Paid kt Cu) Source: Wood Mackenzie 7
8 A shortage of imminent new greenfield projects! Greenfield projects - status, geology, incremental capacity and reserve/resource grade 8
9 Miners need to be creative to keep the project pipeline flowing Options for project developers Optimise Projects Increase size to maximise economies of scale Reduce size to minimise initial capital Staged development / modular approach Timing to take advantage of easing CAPEX escalation Use limited funds on less contentious projects Finance options Streaming deals Off-take arrangements Partnerships M&A activity Majors divesting smaller assets Miners divesting non core assets / debt reduction Chinese ownership 9
10 Summary Conclusions A long term copper price of $3.50/lb ($7700/t) should still be sufficient to incentivise enough new mining projects to keep the market in balance over the next decade. With miners scaling back project development in order to conserve costs, supply may be tight towards the end of this decade. Challenges for project developers and barriers to entry make a structural surplus for copper unlikely. 10
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