European Natural Gas Outlook. Andrew Ellis Global Insight
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1 European Natural Gas Outlook Andrew Ellis Global Insight
2 Agenda Key Issues Facing the Sector Short-term Outlook (to Q4 2009) Long-term Outlook (to 2025) Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 2
3 Agenda Key Issues Facing the Sector Short-term Outlook (to Q4 2009) Long-term Outlook (to 2025) Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 3
4 Key Points 20,000 18, Oil-indexed gas prices remain the benchmark Don t expect change soon Inland demand 16,000 GWh/day 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Spot markets show increased seasonality but oscillate around oilindexed prices NBP Zeebrugge TTF PSV PEGs BEB-VP CEGH Ratio of traded volumes to inland demand Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 4
5 Key Issues Price of oil Most important risk due to oil-indexation Winter premium & summer discount Seasonal premiums have grown on tight winter supply Impact of new infrastructure & volumes LNG New dimension to flexibility Arbitraging Atlantic-basin storage Speed of liberalisation German market is the key Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 5
6 Agenda Key Issues Facing the Sector Short-term Outlook (to Q4 2009) Long-term Outlook (to 2025) Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 6
7 European Border Price Development Waidhaus Velke Kapuszany Emden Dutch Border Dutch border Blaregnies Montoir LNG Baumgarten Baumgarten Tunisia Barcelona Zeebugge (LNG) Zeebrugge (Troll) 20 per MWh Jan 98 Jan 99 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. Source: Heren 7
8 European Border Gas Prices (Nominal) GI FORECAST Norwegian Troll - Zeebrugge Russian gas - German border (Waidhaus) Algerian Pipe Gas to Italy - Alg/Tunis border 20 /MWh Source: Heren and Global Insight Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 8
9 Spot Price Developments NBP Zeebrugge TTF 80 /MWh /1/2004 2/1/2005 6/1/ /1/2005 2/1/2006 6/1/ /1/2006 Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. Source: Heren and IPE 9
10 Spot Price Developments /MWh NBP Zeebrugge TTF /1/2006 7/1/2006 8/1/2006 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2006 Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. Source: Heren and IPE 10
11 Spot Volatility 25% 20% NBP Zeebrugge TTF Volatility 15% 10% 5% 0% 4Q Q Q Q Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. Source: Global Insight 11
12 European Spot Gas Prices (Nominal) GI FORECAST UK - NBP Belgium - Zeebrugge TTF - Dutch France - PEG Nord 25 /MWh Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. Source: Global Insight 12
13 UK Winter Gas Demand Probability Distribution 0.35% 0.30% 2006/7 0.25% 1/20 winter Probability 0.20% 0.15% /50 winter 0.10% 0.05% % Winter demand (bcm) * Winter demand November to March Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. Source: Global Insight 13
14 UK Winter Gas Demand Probability Distribution 0.35% 2006/7 Probability 0.30% 0.25% 0.20% 0.15% Firm supplies: Prodn NW BBL Storage TOTAL 41.8 bcm 5.7 bcm 5.0 bcm 3.8 bcm 56.3 bcm 1/20 winter 1/50 winter 0.10% 0.05% 0.00% Winter demand (bcm) * Winter demand November to March Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. Source: Global Insight 14
15 NBP v Zeebrugge Troll GI FORECAST UK - NBP Norwegian Troll - German border (Emden) 25 /MWh Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. Source: Global Insight 15
16 NBP Summer-Winter Spreads Actual Global Insight Forecast Global Insight Low 5/10/2004 7/4/ /20/2006 p/th /8 1998/ /2 2003/4 2005/6 2007/8 2009/10 Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. Source: IPE and Global Insight 16
17 TTF Summer-Winter Spreads Actual Global Insight Forecast Global Insight Low 8/31/ /1/2006 /MWh / / / / / / /2010 Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. Source: Heren and Global Insight 17
18 Wholesale Gas Prices Belgium Germany Italy Spain UK GI FORECAST 15 /MWh Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. Source: Global Insight 18
19 Agenda Key Issues Facing the Sector Short-term Outlook (to Q4 2009) Long-term Outlook (to 2025) Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 19
20 Source of Incremental European Gas Demand ( ) Europe Industry & Feedstocks 21% bcm Commercial 7% Residential 17% Other 1% Power 54% Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. Source: Global Insight 20
21 Dark Minus Spark Spreads GI FORECAST NBP v ARA Coal /MWh Spark spread Clean spread Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 15 Spark spread 5 Clean spread -5 Phase /tCO2 Phase /tCO2 /MWh GI FORECAST 2004 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 TTF v ARA Coal Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. Source: Global Insight 21
22 Full Levelised Cost Including Carbon Price (Coal V Gas) $ per MWh $ per MWh Coal levelised cost Gas levelised cost Coal levelised cost Gas levelised cost Carbon price = 20/tCO2 Carbon price = 10/tCO2 Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. Source: Global Insight 22
23 Oil Indexed World Norway Russia Key drivers Use regressions on core oil-indexed contracts for delivery in country Adjust for transportation Adjust for constraints Algeria Algeria Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 23
24 Liberalised World: Gas-to-Gas Competition LNG Russia Key drivers Marginal therm into the European pricing point Adjust for transportation away from the European pricing point Adjust for constraints allow price disconnect from rest of Europe Algeria Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 24
25 LRMC Gas Supply Curve for Europe Cumulative supplies LNG LRMC $/mbtu Import range 2.00 $ per mmbtu BCM per year Norway - Existing fields Algeria - Illizi Basin Norway - Troll Norway - Satallite North Sea Russia - Existing fields Algeria - Trias Basin Algeria - Grand Erg Tunisia - Pelagian Basin Russia - Kamennomysskoye (NPT) Kazakhstan - North Caspain Egypt - Nile Delta Egypt - Red Sea Libya - Pelagian Basin Libya - Sirte Basin Russia - Kharasaveyskoye (Yamal) Russia - Bovanenskoye (Yamal) Russia - Zapolyarnoye (NPT) Norway - Norwegian Sea Libya - Trias Basin Nigeria - Lagos Russia - Other (Yamal) Turkmenistan - Amu-Darya Qatar - Great Ghawa uplift Russia - Semakovskoye (NPT) Trinidad & Tobago - Port of Spain Iran - Zagros basin Abu Dhabi - Fahud salt basin Venezuela - Christobal Colon Russia - Leningradskoye (Kara Sea) Libya - Illizi Basin Russia - Stokomanovskoye (Barents Sea) Russia - Other (Kara Sea) Oman - Ghaba salt basin Turkmenistan - South Caspian Russia - Rusanovskoye (Kara Sea) Russia - Other (Barents Sea) Norway - Barents Sea Russia - East Siberia (Nepa) Russia - Far East Russia - East Siberia (Baykrit) Uzbeistan - North Ustyurt Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. Source: Global Insight 25
26 Evolution of Gas Market Liberalisation Share of gas market set by gas-to-gas comp 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% GI FORECAST Base Case Low High Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. Source: Global Insight 26
27 Annual Average Wholesale Gas Price GI FORECAST Germany Italy Netherlands UK /MWh (2005 prices) Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. Source: Global Insight 27
28 German Delivered Gas Prices Scenario Results Base Low High /MWh (2005 prices) Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. Source: Global Insight 28
29 Thank you! Andrew Ellis Director of European Gas
Edinburg June 26, 2013
Russia s Natural Gas Production & Export Policy Dr. Tatiana Mitrova Head of Oil and Gas Department Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences Edinburg June 26, 2013 1 GAS PRODUCTION IN
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