Energy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Energy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union"

Transcription

1 Energy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union GTSP Annual Meeting May 29, 2008 Presented by M. Evans

2 Looking back Overview Economic and demographic trends Energy trends and energy intensity Toward the future Economic projections Energy strategies of Russia and Ukraine Economic growth and energy prices 2

3 Looking Back: Historical Data 3

4 GDP trends in FSU Economic growth since 1998 crisis has regularly exceeded estimates Wages and real consumption up: 82% wage increase in Russia FSU has grown despite relatively small investments in capital stock using old, inefficient stock Link between growth and oil revenue Billion 2000 USD (PPP) Change in GDP (PPP) % 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% 4

5 Wealth is growing Per Capita GDP (2000 $ PPP) Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan 5

6 Population (thousands) Population declining since FSU Population Trends Uzbekistan Ukraine Turkmenistan Tadjikistan Russia Moldova Lithuania Latvia Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan Georgia Estonia Belarus Azerbaijan Ukraine lost almost 10% of its population in 15 years Russia will see an average annual population decline of 1% through 2050 (UN estimate) Central Asia states will see increase 6

7 Turning to Energy 7

8 Reserves: Russia and Energy Largest natural gas reserves in world 2 nd largest coal reserves 8 th largest oil reserves Exports: Largest natural gas exporter 2 nd largest oil exporter Historically, Russia has never grown more than 5.5% w/o an increase in oil prices Consumption: 3 rd largest energy consumer in world 8

9 Energy Trends: TPES ktoe FSU Russia Ukraine Russia + Ukraine TPES per capita dropped sharply and is now increasing more gradually. 9

10 Fuel Mix in Russian Energy Balance Share of Fuels in Russian TPES 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Other Oil Coal Gas Russia 0% -20% Coal s use is declining. Gas is increasing. Oil demand dropped but is now increasing 10

11 Gas Demand Natural Gas in TPES Mtoe Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Russian gas demand growing faster than expected 11

12 bcm Decline in Natural Gas Production: A Looming Supply Gap Growing gas supply gap Call on Russian and Central Asian gas Russian production + Imports from Central Asia Russian domestic demand Shortages could make Russia switch to other fuels Are expectations of gas supply to China realistic? May also affect price and demand in Europe

13 Energy Intensity Declining but still very high OECD average: 0.2 in Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus 13

14 Power Production in Russia Russian Electricity Generation by Fuel TWh Renewables Petroleum Products Nuclear Hydro Coal Natural Gas Surprisingly stable fuel mix. Oil s share dropped, nuclear and coal grown slightly. 14

15 Heat is also very important in FSU Over 1/3 of Russian energy use is for heat (without counting most of industry) District heating supplies 70% of residential heating in Russia Russia uses almost as much gas for heating as it exports (150 bcm vs. 180 bcm) In rest of FSU, heat demand has started to grow again. ktoe Russian Heat Production by Fuel, 2005 Russian Heat Demand Gas Coal Oil Waste Biomass Nuclear Agriculture/Forestry Commercial and Public Services Residential Industry Sector 15

16 Emission Trends: FSU and Poland CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Mt of CO Former USSR Russia Ukraine Poland Kazakhstan

17 Looking Forward: Future Trends 17

18 Population Projections Russian Population (millions) Rest of FSU Population Russia s Share of FSU Total % % Key Message: Rest of FSU will likely see stronger emissions growth than Russia. Starting from a weaker economic base. 18

19 Russia s s Energy Strategy Production Export Russian demand Optimistic/baseline scenarios Exports stable Demand grows Production grows But is it realistic? Based on policy goals. Production growth seems challenging Demand growth: to date, exceeded projections 19

20 Energy Strategy: Change in GDP and Energy Intensity Change in Intensity: Baseline Scenario GDP as % of 2000, Optimistic Scenario Change in Intensity: Optimistic Scenario GDP as % of 2000, Baseline Scenario 20

21 Energy efficiency: a bargain in Ukraine Mtoe Billion $ Mtoe Bill. $ Power+Coal Energy Efficiency 21

22 Subsidies in FSU Russian natural gas prices: just a fraction of European netback levels, though above Russian production costs Electricity: 2.7 and 2.8 for residential and industrial customers risen in recent years In 1992: FSU $151 B in energy subsidies; today less than ¼ of this, if you ignore the rising external price of natural gas In 2005: $8 billion in Russia for electricity and natural gas; more for heat 22

23 Threats to Growth Energy intensity Rapid shifts in oil prices (up hurts most smaller states, down hurts Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan) Decline in natural gas production 23

24 Dutch Disease: How Vulnerable is Russia s s Economy to the Price of Oil World Bank study showing 25% of Russian GDP from oil and gas; 30% of government revenue Russian data show smaller % Energy s share of GDP has probably grown with the price of oil Also affects Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan If the price of oil drops Russia s economic stabilization fund at over $160B 24

25 Concluding Thoughts Are current energy growth levels sustainable without improvements in energy intensity? Exports of natural gas to China may be less than anticipated The rest of the FSU: Will the poorer FSU states start to see rapid economic growth? What impact will desire to diversity energy supplies have on emissions? Influence of state on energy and emissions trajectories 25

How Capitalism Was Built

How Capitalism Was Built How Capitalism Was Built The Transformation of Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia Anders Åslund Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Washington, DC, September

More information

Multidimensional Analysis

Multidimensional Analysis Multidimensional Analysis of Macro Sustainability of Russia: New Methods for Measuring Progress Dr Stanislav Shmelev, Senior Research Fellow, Oxford University, UK E-mail: s.shmelev@ouce.ox.ac.uk Tel:

More information

The transition to sustainable energy

The transition to sustainable energy ATSE Symposium The transition to sustainable energy Peter Littlewood 8 Nov 2016 The changing world economy Index 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 Economies less energy intensive Electricity less

More information

ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS FOR THE 2030 AGENDA IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS FOR THE 2030 AGENDA IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS FOR THE 2030 AGENDA IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC Mr Hongpeng Liu Director, Energy Division, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific Objectives and progress of the

More information

What s the Opportunity in Russia and Eastern Europe for Chile? 25 th October 2011

What s the Opportunity in Russia and Eastern Europe for Chile? 25 th October 2011 What s the Opportunity in Russia and Eastern Europe for Chile? 25 th October 2011 1 Contents Who Is Talking Global Grape Imports Russian and East European Imports The Top 3 Markets Some Conclusions 2 Who

More information

Effects of Common Economic Space Creation

Effects of Common Economic Space Creation Effects of Common Economic Space Creation Институт Institute of народнохозяйственного Economic Forecasting прогнозирования Florence September, 2012 20 years of independent economic development 1990 1991

More information

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 11 th MULTI-YEAR EXPERT MEETING ON COMMODITIES AND DEVELOPMENT 15-16 April 2019, Geneva Saudi economic growth strategy on the face of oil price uncertainty

More information

The Demographic Factor

The Demographic Factor AGEING A CHALLENGE AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE COUNTRIES OF EASTERN EUROPE, CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA Chisinau, March 2007 The Demographic Factor Dimiter Philipov Vienna Institute of Demography 1 CONTENTS

More information

Dr Neil J. Bristow. 8 th WSD Steel Success Strategies European Steel Conference London, 30 th November H & W Worldwide Consulting

Dr Neil J. Bristow. 8 th WSD Steel Success Strategies European Steel Conference London, 30 th November H & W Worldwide Consulting Dr Neil J. Bristow 8 th WSD Steel Success Strategies European Steel Conference London, 30 th November 2010 neil.j.bristow@hwworldwideconsult.com +61240286268 H & W Worldwide Consulting 1. Brief comparison

More information

ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS FOR THE 2030 AGENDA IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS FOR THE 2030 AGENDA IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS FOR THE 2030 AGENDA IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC Hongpeng Liu Director, Energy Division, UNESCAP Objectives and progress of Energy Transition Asia-Pacific policy-makers face three

More information

Nations in Transit 2013: Overall Democracy Scores

Nations in Transit 2013: Overall Democracy Scores Slovenia Estonia Latvia Czech Republic Poland Lithuania Slovakia Hungary Bulgaria Romania Croatia Serbia Montenegro Macedonia Albania Bosnia-Herzegovina Georgia Moldova Ukraine Kosovo Armenia Kyrgyzstan

More information

The Chinese Economy: Boom or Bust?

The Chinese Economy: Boom or Bust? The Chinese Economy: Boom or Bust? Lawrence J. Lau Ralph and Claire Landau Professor of Economics, The Chinese Univ. of Hong Kong and Kwoh-Ting Li Professor in Economic Development, Emeritus, Stanford

More information

Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle

Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle Michael Swanson Ph.D. Wells Fargo October 2017 Everything is connected we just don t see how. Connection corollary: Nothing natural moves in a straight

More information

Brazil Baseline and Mitigation Scenarios

Brazil Baseline and Mitigation Scenarios Brazil Baseline and Mitigation Scenarios The 12 th AIM International Workshop William Wills ww@ufrj.br Tsukuba, Japan 19-21, February 2007 CCAP (Center for Clean Air Policy): Dialogue on Future International

More information

UK Energy Futures. Richard Smith Head of Energy Strategy & Policy

UK Energy Futures. Richard Smith Head of Energy Strategy & Policy UK Energy Futures Richard Smith Head of Energy Strategy & Policy September 2012 Our 2012 scenario development Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Stakeholder workshops (London &

More information

Resource use in the World Economy A preliminary assessment

Resource use in the World Economy A preliminary assessment Resource use in the World Economy 196-25 A preliminary assessment Marina Fischer-Kowalski, Nina Eisenmenger, Fridolin Krausmann Institute of Social Ecology, Vienna Now for the first time it is possible

More information

Export market challenges and opportunities for southern grain producers. Ross Kingwell

Export market challenges and opportunities for southern grain producers. Ross Kingwell Export market challenges and opportunities for southern grain producers Ross Kingwell Take Home Messages In wheat, face up to even more export competition. Find sources of additional value within or outside

More information

Sulphur Market Outlook

Sulphur Market Outlook Sulphur Market Outlook Meena Chauhan Head of Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Integer Research The Fertilizer Institute Outlook and Technology conference Fort Lauderdale, Florida Founded in 2002, Integer Research

More information

US imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly

US imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly US imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly Ratio to GDP (current dollars) 0.07 US merchandise imports, 1978 2008 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 Industrial Non-OPEC other 0.01 0 OPEC = Organization

More information

Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies

Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Marine Terminal Management Training Program October 15, 2007 Long Beach, CA Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. 1 Agenda Economic

More information

Pacific Rim Coal Marketing

Pacific Rim Coal Marketing Wyoming Infrastructure Authority Spring Energy Conference June 11-12, 2015 Cheyanne Pacific Rim Coal Marketing Michael Mewing MC2 Company Pty Limited Pacific Rim Coal Marketing * Asia s reliance on coal

More information

Agricultural Outlook: Rebalancing U.S. Agriculture

Agricultural Outlook: Rebalancing U.S. Agriculture Agricultural Outlook: Rebalancing U.S. Agriculture Michael J. Swanson Ph.D. Agricultural Economist January 2018 2018 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use. The U.S. Ag Sector renormalizes!

More information

Car Production. Brazil Mexico. Production in thousands. Source: AMIA Asociacion Mexicana de la industria automotriz.

Car Production. Brazil Mexico. Production in thousands. Source: AMIA Asociacion Mexicana de la industria automotriz. Car Production Production in thousands 4000 3000 2000 1000 Brazil Mexico 0 2013 2014 2015 Source: AMIA Asociacion Mexicana de la industria automotriz. Mexico s Expanding Middle Class Percent of population

More information

Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges. Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1

Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges. Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1 Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1 World GDP Growth Other Economies are Outpacing the U.S. Other, 7996.16, 11% Africa, 3962.51, 6% Latin

More information

Producer - Consumer Dialogue - Rising to New Challenges -

Producer - Consumer Dialogue - Rising to New Challenges - Producer - Consumer Dialogue - Rising to New Challenges - Klaus Rehaag Head, Oil Industry & Markets Division Editor, Oil Market Report International Energy Agency Paris, France klaus.rehaag@iea.org Asia

More information

ROLE OF COPPER IN CHILEAN ECONOMY

ROLE OF COPPER IN CHILEAN ECONOMY ROLE OF COPPER IN CHILEAN ECONOMY Patricio Meller, Bernardo Lara & Gonzalo Valdés January 2010 1 Basic Data: Chile 2009 Population (millions) 17 Yn/cap (US$ PPP) 14,299 GDP (billions US$) 243 Territory

More information

KEF-2016: Reforms for Inclusive Growth November 3 4, 2016

KEF-2016: Reforms for Inclusive Growth November 3 4, 2016 KEF-2016: Reforms for Inclusive Growth November 3 4, 2016 On the verge of the new economic cycle how to set up for the failure, and how not to Andrey Movchan, Senior Associate and Director of the Economic

More information

Building on Kyoto: Towards a Realistic Global Climate Change Agreement and What Australia Should Do

Building on Kyoto: Towards a Realistic Global Climate Change Agreement and What Australia Should Do Building on Kyoto: Towards a Realistic Global Climate Change Agreement and What Australia Should Do Warwick J. McKibbin & Peter J. Wilcoxen ANU Public Lecture, 3 July 2008 Overview Climate Science Lessons

More information

Living with limits: growth, resources and climate change Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times

Living with limits: growth, resources and climate change Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times Living with limits: growth, resources and climate change Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times Grantham Institute for Climate Change Annual Lecture 2011 3 rd November

More information

Overview of market trends through 2005 Forecasts for 2006 and 2007

Overview of market trends through 2005 Forecasts for 2006 and 2007 Overview of market trends through 2005 Forecasts for 2006 and 2007 Ed Pepke, Ph.D. Forest Products Marketing Specialist Food and Agricultural Organization & UN Economic Commission for Europe Geneva, Switzerland

More information

School of international and Public Affairs. Columbia University Manuel Pinho

School of international and Public Affairs. Columbia University Manuel Pinho School of international and Public Affairs Columbia University Manuel Pinho SPHERE WITH CORE What matters to China matters to the world Do not give lessons to China: Europe and the US The challenges: Growth

More information

China s energy insecurity: strategies and future prospects

China s energy insecurity: strategies and future prospects China s energy insecurity: strategies and future prospects Philip Andrews-Speed Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of Dundee Andrews-Speed 1 Energy supply & demand 1,800.00

More information

The Power Generation Mix and 3E Consequence: The Implications for Taiwan. Yi-Hua Wu, Chia Hao Liu, Hancheng Dai and Toshihiko Masui

The Power Generation Mix and 3E Consequence: The Implications for Taiwan. Yi-Hua Wu, Chia Hao Liu, Hancheng Dai and Toshihiko Masui The Power Generation Mix and 3E Consequence: The Implications for Taiwan Yi-Hua Wu, Chia Hao Liu, Hancheng Dai and Toshihiko Masui 1 Introductions Purpose Investigate the impacts of various power generation

More information

2017 Major Projects Pipeline Report Adrian Hart, Senior Manager Infrastructure & Mining

2017 Major Projects Pipeline Report Adrian Hart, Senior Manager Infrastructure & Mining 2017 Major Projects Pipeline Report Adrian Hart, Senior Manager Infrastructure & Mining Major Projects Pipeline Report - 2017 Presentation Outline Key findings of the 2017 Pipeline Report The outlook for

More information

Market Report Series Oil 2017

Market Report Series Oil 2017 Market Report Series Oil 2017 Neil Atkinson, Head Oil Industry & Markets Division, IEA International Institute for Strategic Studies, Bahrain, 17 September 2017 Oil demand continues to grow but at a slower

More information

Comparison of urban energy use and carbon emission in Tokyo, Beijing, Seoul and Shanghai

Comparison of urban energy use and carbon emission in Tokyo, Beijing, Seoul and Shanghai International Workshop on Urban Energy and Carbon Modeling, February 5-6, 28, AIT Centre, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani, Thailand Comparison of urban energy use and carbon emission in Tokyo,

More information

Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons. John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009

Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons. John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009 Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009 The U.S. Recession Is Bottoming Out This recession has been the most severe of the postwar

More information

Oil Prices: Past, Present, & Future

Oil Prices: Past, Present, & Future Oil Prices: Past, Present, & Future Gulf Research Center November 23, 2005 A. F. Alhajji*, PhD Gulf Energy Program - Moderator Gulf Research Center Dubai, UAE *A. F. Alhajji, PhD is also George Patten

More information

The Baltic economies: Current situation and future trends, possibilities and pitfalls

The Baltic economies: Current situation and future trends, possibilities and pitfalls The Baltic economies: Current situation and future trends, possibilities and pitfalls Riga, 15 October 2015 Morten Hansen Head of Economics Department, Stockholm School of Economics in Riga Member of the

More information

Edinburg June 26, 2013

Edinburg June 26, 2013 Russia s Natural Gas Production & Export Policy Dr. Tatiana Mitrova Head of Oil and Gas Department Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences Edinburg June 26, 2013 1 GAS PRODUCTION IN

More information

Economic Transformation and Recovery in Hong Kong and Singapore

Economic Transformation and Recovery in Hong Kong and Singapore School of Economics and Finance, The University of Hong Kong Presentation given at the followings : - Zonta Club 1999 Accountancy Conference, Vocational Training Council on October 8, 1999 The Society

More information

Inland Empire International Trade Economic Forecast

Inland Empire International Trade Economic Forecast Inland Empire International Trade Economic Forecast Mira Farka Adrian Fleissig Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies Orange County / Inland Empire Regional SBDC Network California State University,

More information

International Trade Economic Forecasts An Overview of Orange County and Southern California Exports

International Trade Economic Forecasts An Overview of Orange County and Southern California Exports International Trade Economic Forecasts An Overview of Orange County and Southern California Exports Mira Farka Adrian R. Fleissig Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies Orange County / Inland

More information

SPM 9541 November 2010 Aad Correljé

SPM 9541 November 2010 Aad Correljé Gas system & actor description: The case of the Dutch gas system June 29, 2011 SPM 9541 November 2010 Aad Correljé 1 The Natural Gas Market Value chain Set up of regulatory and market system in the Netherlands

More information

Wenlin Liu, Senior Economist. Stateof Wyoming. Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 1

Wenlin Liu, Senior Economist. Stateof Wyoming. Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 1 WYOMING DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TREND LCCC LIFE Program April 7, 2012 Cheyenne, Wyoming Wenlin Liu, Senior Economist Economic Analysis Division Stateof Wyoming Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming

More information

Energy Security: Markets and Policy

Energy Security: Markets and Policy Energy Security: Markets and Policy Pierre Noël EPRG, University of Cambridge Critical Infrastructure Conference, London, 20 April 2011 Contents Global Oil and the Middle East European Gas and Russia Japan

More information

The US Economic Outlook

The US Economic Outlook IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook The US Economic Outlook November 2014 ihs.com Rafael Amiel, Director latin America Economics +1 215 789 7405, rafael.amiel.ihs.com 2014 IHS The US economy is gaining momentum Growth

More information

Economy-wide (general equilibrium) analysis of Philippines mitigation potential

Economy-wide (general equilibrium) analysis of Philippines mitigation potential Global Trade Analysis Project Economy-wide (general equilibrium) analysis of Philippines mitigation potential Erwin Corong Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University Crowne Plaza Hotel, Manila

More information

The Future of the World s International Education

The Future of the World s International Education The Future of the World s International Education long-term driving forces or trends that influence almost everything at all levels of societal development. They have great importance now, and we are relatively

More information

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia

Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Economic Growth 42,000.0 36,000.0 30,000.0 24,000.0 18,000.0 12,000.0 6,000.0 0.0 GDP AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 7.2% 6.2% 6.4% 4.6% 4.8% 3.4% 2.9% 2.8%

More information

Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017

Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017 Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: How have the decline in oil prices and a weaker Canadian dollar affected Canada s economy? www.statcan.gc.ca Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards

More information

The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies

The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist, PAGI Group, JLL (Port, Airport & Global Infrastructure) Agenda Where are we in the cycle? What are the barriers

More information

Economic benefits of healthy fisheries.

Economic benefits of healthy fisheries. Economic benefits of healthy fisheries Chris.Williams@neweconomics.org www.neweconomics.org Working towards an economy which delivers high well-being and social justice within fair ecological limits Why

More information

National Report Iceland. RINORD June 2018 Tryggvi Jónsson, Chairman of FRV

National Report Iceland. RINORD June 2018 Tryggvi Jónsson, Chairman of FRV National Report Iceland RINORD June 2018 Tryggvi Jónsson, Chairman of FRV FRV s activities and priorities 2017-2018 Annual strategy meeting set out the following priorities: Good procurement practices

More information

Global economic cycle has slowed

Global economic cycle has slowed Year-on-year % change Confidence index, 50= no change Global economic cycle has slowed 25% 70 20% International trade growth 65 15% 10% Industrial production growth 60 5% 55 0% 50-5% Business confidence

More information

Lawrence J. Lau 刘遵义. CSIS Forum Washington, D.C., 22nd May 2013

Lawrence J. Lau 刘遵义. CSIS Forum Washington, D.C., 22nd May 2013 U.S.-China Economic Relations in the Next Ten Years: Towards Deeper Engagement and Mutual Benefit Lawrence J. Lau 刘遵义 Ralph and Claire Landau Professor of Economics, The Chinese Univ. of Hong Kong and

More information

Indian Economy in Graphs. Arvind Panagariya Columbia University

Indian Economy in Graphs. Arvind Panagariya Columbia University Indian Economy in Graphs Growth in GDP and Per-capita GDP 9 8.3 8 7 6.7 6 5.8 5 4 3 2 4.1 2.2 3.2 4.6 2.2 3.7 1 0.8 0 Phase I (1951-64) Phase II (1965-81) Phase III (1981-88) Phase IV (1988-03) Phase V

More information

OCEAN2012 Fish Dependence Day - UK

OCEAN2012 Fish Dependence Day - UK OCEAN2012 Fish Dependence Day - UK Europeans are now so dependent on fish products originating from external waters that half the fish they consume are sourced outside the EU Fish dependence: The EU s

More information

Market Opportunities for Irish Dairy 2025

Market Opportunities for Irish Dairy 2025 Market Opportunities for Irish Dairy 2025 National Dairy Conference 2014 Red Cow Moran Hotel, Dublin Aidan Cotter Chief Executive Wednesday, 19 th November, 2014 AIDAN COTTER BORD BIA CHIEF EXECUTIVE 28

More information

Setting the scene The ICT landscape in BRIC countries

Setting the scene The ICT landscape in BRIC countries 1 Setting the scene The ICT landscape in BRIC countries / Disclaimer The views expressed are those of the presenter and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European

More information

FAPRI agricultural commodity outlook

FAPRI agricultural commodity outlook FAPRI agricultural commodity outlook By William H. Meyers Howard Cowden Professor of Agricultural and Applied Economics FAPRI at MU UN DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World Economy 21 October 2013 New

More information

16. Key Facts about Long Run Economic Growth

16. Key Facts about Long Run Economic Growth Fletcher School, Tufts University 16. Key Facts about Long Run Economic Growth E212 Macroeconomics Prof. George Alogoskoufis How we Measure and Compare Living Standards Living standards are usually measured

More information

The U.S. Economic Outlook

The U.S. Economic Outlook The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September 29 2006 Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service 781-301-9125 patrick.newport@globalinsight.com

More information

The Eurozone integration, des-integration and possible future developments

The Eurozone integration, des-integration and possible future developments The Eurozone integration, des-integration and possible future developments 18 th Monetary Policy Workshop at the Berlin School of Economcs and Law, 12 13 October 2017 Overview Position 1: The euro itself

More information

Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013

Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 1 Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 June 2012 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist Summary Higher economic growth in 2013, possible

More information

SUMMARY. Natural Gas In The World 2017 Edition

SUMMARY. Natural Gas In The World 2017 Edition CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas SUMMARY Natural Gas In The World 217 Edition CEDIGAZ, October 217 NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD 217 SUMMARY Worldwide proven natural gas reserves grew

More information

Session 4. Growth. The World Economy Share of Global GDP Year 2011 (PPP)

Session 4. Growth. The World Economy Share of Global GDP Year 2011 (PPP) Session 4. Growth Stylized Facts on Standards of Living across Countries Characterizing Growth over 1 Years: The US Economy Growth Dynamics of the G7 Countries and the OECD Economies Characterizing Growth

More information

18 th May Global Steel Industry Trends: Is the perception the reality?

18 th May Global Steel Industry Trends: Is the perception the reality? 18 th May 2004 Global Steel Industry Trends: Is the perception the reality? Investors have perceived the steel industry negatively Poor returns over the long term, high volatility, relatively small size

More information

Aquaculture growth potential in Azerbaijan

Aquaculture growth potential in Azerbaijan Aquaculture growth potential in Azerbaijan Policy brief for FAO TCP/AZE/372/C2 Assessment of state-owned fish farms for sustainable development of the aquaculture sector in Azerbaijan (prepared by Junning

More information

Market Report Series Oil SIEW 2017 launch - 28 March 2017

Market Report Series Oil SIEW 2017 launch - 28 March 2017 Market Report Series Oil 2017 SIEW 2017 launch - 28 March 2017 Oil demand continues to grow but at a slower pace 2.0 Global oil demand growth 2014-2022 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

More information

Table 34 Production of heat by type Terajoules

Table 34 Production of heat by type Terajoules Table 34 Production of heat by type Table Notes geo represents heat used directly for district heating, agriculture etc. without a commercial transaction taking place. represents heat used for the production

More information

Transition: Changes After Socialism* Leszek Balcerowicz

Transition: Changes After Socialism* Leszek Balcerowicz Transition: Changes After Socialism* November 2014 Leszek Balcerowicz Warsaw School of Economics *I m grateful to Magda Ciżkowicz, Aleksander Łaszek, Sonja Wap and Marek Tatała for their assistance in

More information

China s Industrial Capabilities and Trade

China s Industrial Capabilities and Trade China s Industrial Capabilities and Trade Loren Brandt Thomas Rawski June 16, 2005 Key Facts: China, 2003 Population: 1.3 billion (1 st ) GNP: $US 1.4 trillion (3 rd ) Foreign Trade: $US 850.1 (3rd) GNP

More information

International Economic Shocks and the Challenges of International Corporations

International Economic Shocks and the Challenges of International Corporations RIETI Policy Symposium International Economic Shocks and the Challenges of International Corporations Ryuhei Wakasugi Research Counselor, RIETI Professor Kyoto University and Keio University R. Wakasugi

More information

BUYERS VS SUPPLIERS: CHANGING PREFERENCES OF ONE OF THE MAIN GRAIN IMPORTERS

BUYERS VS SUPPLIERS: CHANGING PREFERENCES OF ONE OF THE MAIN GRAIN IMPORTERS BUYERS VS SUPPLIERS: CHANGING PREFERENCES OF ONE OF THE MAIN GRAIN IMPORTERS MACROECONOMICS GLOBAL GROWTH: DEVELOPED AND EMERGING MARKETS MARCH 2008 MARCH 2017 5,5 % 2 % Emerging Markets Real GDP YoY %

More information

THE ECONOMIC, CLIMATE, FISCAL, POWER, AND DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT OF A NATIONAL FEE-AND- DIVIDEND CARBON TAX

THE ECONOMIC, CLIMATE, FISCAL, POWER, AND DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT OF A NATIONAL FEE-AND- DIVIDEND CARBON TAX THE ECONOMIC, CLIMATE, FISCAL, POWER, AND DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT OF A NATIONAL FEE-AND- DIVIDEND CARBON TAX Regional Economic Models, Inc. Study Authors Scott Nystrom, M.A. Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI)

More information

DECLINE IN COMMODITY PRICES GCC OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 22 ND, 2015

DECLINE IN COMMODITY PRICES GCC OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 22 ND, 2015 DECLINE IN COMMODITY PRICES GCC OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 22 ND, 2015 1 EVERYONE HAS A PLAN UNTIL THEY GET PUNCHED IN THE FACE 2 HE WHO IS NOT COURAGEOUS ENOUGH TO TAKE RISKS WILL ACCOMPLISH NOTHING IN LIFE 3 IT

More information

Worst economic crisis since WWII and lack of funds posing internal and external barriers to internationalisation

Worst economic crisis since WWII and lack of funds posing internal and external barriers to internationalisation Hot Topics Dr Janet Ilieva International Education Intelligence Unit Setting the context Worst economic crisis since WWII and lack of funds posing internal and external barriers to internationalisation

More information

RISI LATIN AMERICAN CONFERENCE. (São Paulo, 16 August 2016) The Latin American Economy: Some Successes, Many Disappointments

RISI LATIN AMERICAN CONFERENCE. (São Paulo, 16 August 2016) The Latin American Economy: Some Successes, Many Disappointments RISI LATIN AMERICAN CONFERENCE (São Paulo, 16 August 2016) The Latin American Economy: Some Successes, Many Disappointments Andrea Boltho Magdalen College University of Oxford and Oxford Economics GDP

More information

Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry

Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry Presented to: AAPA Marine Terminal Management Training Program April 24, 2006 Charleston Riverview Hotel Charleston, SC - USA

More information

Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009

Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009 Economic Outlook and Ports Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009 The Outlook for Trade Depends on Goods Demand Integrated international supply-chains offer efficiencies

More information

Commodity Endowment Funds

Commodity Endowment Funds Commodity Endowment Funds Moscow March 9-10 Roberts L. Grava Jennifer Johnson-Calari World Bank rgrava@worldbank.org jjohnsoncalari@worldbank.org Challenges of managing commodity revenues Macro issues

More information

Mexican Light Vehicle Outlook

Mexican Light Vehicle Outlook Mexican Light Vehicle Outlook Presented to: LXXXVI Junta Automotriz 9 July 2008 Presented by: Guido Vildozo Senior Market Analyst, Latin America Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 1 Global Light Vehicle

More information

Economic potential of Agriculture and Pig production in Baltic region. Mindaugas Jurgelis, analyst 30 May, 2012

Economic potential of Agriculture and Pig production in Baltic region. Mindaugas Jurgelis, analyst 30 May, 2012 Economic potential of Agriculture and Pig production in Baltic region Mindaugas Jurgelis, analyst 30 May, 2012 1 Global tendencies of food production 2 Food prices near historical peak level FAO food price

More information

The best design acknowledges that you can't disconnect the form from the material.

The best design acknowledges that you can't disconnect the form from the material. Sir Jonathan Ive Senior Vice President of Design, Apple Inc. The best design acknowledges that you can't disconnect the form from the material. The material informs the form. The only way to make the MacBook

More information

Chlor-Alkali Market Research Report- Forecast to 2022

Chlor-Alkali Market Research Report- Forecast to 2022 Report Information More information from: https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/1966 Chlor-Alkali Market Research Report- Forecast to 2022 Report / Search Code: MRFR/CnM/1434-HCRR Publish Date:

More information

Climate Change & India

Climate Change & India Climate Change & India New Delhi How has India warmed over the past 117 years? How the temperatures have increased seasonally? How far away we are from 1.5 degree C target? Methodology 117 years (1901-1916)

More information

Montana Manufacturing: 2015 Outlook. Todd A. Morgan, CF

Montana Manufacturing: 2015 Outlook. Todd A. Morgan, CF Montana Manufacturing: 2015 Outlook Todd A. Morgan, CF Montana & U.S. Manufacturing Employment 1990-2014 MT workers 28,000 US workers 21,000,000 24,000 18,000,000 20,000 15,000,000 Montana U.S. 16,000

More information

North American Forging Shipment Forecast (Using FIA bookings information through December 2013)

North American Forging Shipment Forecast (Using FIA bookings information through December 2013) North American Forging Shipment Forecast 2014-2018 (Using FIA bookings information through December 2013) Percent Change Year Ago Best leading indicator combination for impression die bookings used to

More information

Energy, Economy and Policy: A Glimpse at the 21 st Century

Energy, Economy and Policy: A Glimpse at the 21 st Century Gas Well Deliquification Workshop Denver, Colorado February, 2009 Energy, Economy and Policy: A Glimpse at the 21 st Century Scott W. Tinker Bureau of Economic Geology Jackson School of Geosciences The

More information

Lithuanian export: is it time to prepare for changes? Aleksandr Izgorodin Expert

Lithuanian export: is it time to prepare for changes? Aleksandr Izgorodin Expert Lithuanian export: is it time to prepare for changes? Aleksandr Izgorodin Expert Export is the main locomotive behind growth in LT economy Lithuania: change in real GDP and its components, % 78,2 71,8

More information

The World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review

The World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review The World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review Michael Keenan Harbor Planning and Economic Analyst Port of Los Angeles October 5, 2009 Review of 2007 Container Trade

More information

World Vegetable Oil Themes in 2018/19

World Vegetable Oil Themes in 2018/19 World Vegetable Oil Themes in 2018/19 Ben Buckner AgResource Company World Veg Oil Themes in 2018 POLITICS Disorder, Trade Barriers (India More than China?) HUGE difference between world soybean supply

More information

TV DISTRIBUTION: 24 Hours of Le Mans June 16 17, :00 15:00 Local time Infront Sports & Media AG 0

TV DISTRIBUTION: 24 Hours of Le Mans June 16 17, :00 15:00 Local time Infront Sports & Media AG 0 TV DISTRIBUTION: 24 Hours of Le Mans 2018 June 16 17, 2018 15:00 15:00 Local time Infront Sports & Media AG 0 LE MANS 2018 BROADCAST PARTNERS Pan-Europe Pan-Europe Pan Asia- Pacific Pan Asia- Pacific French

More information

Local systems, Europe and globalisation: How to get it right?

Local systems, Europe and globalisation: How to get it right? Local systems, Europe and globalisation: How to get it right? Jean-Paul Fitoussi Professor, IEP Paris President, OFCE «Culture and Knowledge: Local Systems in a Global Context» European Colloquia Prague,

More information

Lost in Translation: (In)Coherence Between Agricultural and Development Policy

Lost in Translation: (In)Coherence Between Agricultural and Development Policy Lost in Translation: (In)Coherence Between Agricultural and Development Policy Eugenio Díaz-Bonilla Agricultural Trade Policy in the U.S. Can reform advance domestic policy objectives and sustainable development?

More information

Handelsbanken Russia Seminar

Handelsbanken Russia Seminar Handelsbanken Russia Seminar 22 May, 2015 President and CEO Ari Lehtoranta Growth in the west Russia remains challenging Nokian Tyres 2014 Nokian Tyres is the northernmost tyre manufacturer in the world,

More information

The End of Hyper growth: Political and Economic Responses to a Slowing China

The End of Hyper growth: Political and Economic Responses to a Slowing China The End of Hyper growth: Political and Economic Responses to a Slowing China Barry Naughton IR/PS, UC San Diego 5 th Annual G2 at GW Conference October 12, 2012 Conclusions (Seriously) Forces that are

More information

Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States?

Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist Dale Orr Canadian Macroeconomic Services Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.

More information

Congestion Evaluation Best Practices

Congestion Evaluation Best Practices Congestion Evaluation Best Practices Todd Litman Victoria Transport Policy Institute Presented International Transportation and Economic Development Conference 10 April 2014 Congestion Indicators Indicator

More information