Energy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union

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1 Energy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union GTSP Annual Meeting May 29, 2008 Presented by M. Evans

2 Looking back Overview Economic and demographic trends Energy trends and energy intensity Toward the future Economic projections Energy strategies of Russia and Ukraine Economic growth and energy prices 2

3 Looking Back: Historical Data 3

4 GDP trends in FSU Economic growth since 1998 crisis has regularly exceeded estimates Wages and real consumption up: 82% wage increase in Russia FSU has grown despite relatively small investments in capital stock using old, inefficient stock Link between growth and oil revenue Billion 2000 USD (PPP) Change in GDP (PPP) % 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% 4

5 Wealth is growing Per Capita GDP (2000 $ PPP) Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan 5

6 Population (thousands) Population declining since FSU Population Trends Uzbekistan Ukraine Turkmenistan Tadjikistan Russia Moldova Lithuania Latvia Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan Georgia Estonia Belarus Azerbaijan Ukraine lost almost 10% of its population in 15 years Russia will see an average annual population decline of 1% through 2050 (UN estimate) Central Asia states will see increase 6

7 Turning to Energy 7

8 Reserves: Russia and Energy Largest natural gas reserves in world 2 nd largest coal reserves 8 th largest oil reserves Exports: Largest natural gas exporter 2 nd largest oil exporter Historically, Russia has never grown more than 5.5% w/o an increase in oil prices Consumption: 3 rd largest energy consumer in world 8

9 Energy Trends: TPES ktoe FSU Russia Ukraine Russia + Ukraine TPES per capita dropped sharply and is now increasing more gradually. 9

10 Fuel Mix in Russian Energy Balance Share of Fuels in Russian TPES 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Other Oil Coal Gas Russia 0% -20% Coal s use is declining. Gas is increasing. Oil demand dropped but is now increasing 10

11 Gas Demand Natural Gas in TPES Mtoe Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Russian gas demand growing faster than expected 11

12 bcm Decline in Natural Gas Production: A Looming Supply Gap Growing gas supply gap Call on Russian and Central Asian gas Russian production + Imports from Central Asia Russian domestic demand Shortages could make Russia switch to other fuels Are expectations of gas supply to China realistic? May also affect price and demand in Europe

13 Energy Intensity Declining but still very high OECD average: 0.2 in Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus 13

14 Power Production in Russia Russian Electricity Generation by Fuel TWh Renewables Petroleum Products Nuclear Hydro Coal Natural Gas Surprisingly stable fuel mix. Oil s share dropped, nuclear and coal grown slightly. 14

15 Heat is also very important in FSU Over 1/3 of Russian energy use is for heat (without counting most of industry) District heating supplies 70% of residential heating in Russia Russia uses almost as much gas for heating as it exports (150 bcm vs. 180 bcm) In rest of FSU, heat demand has started to grow again. ktoe Russian Heat Production by Fuel, 2005 Russian Heat Demand Gas Coal Oil Waste Biomass Nuclear Agriculture/Forestry Commercial and Public Services Residential Industry Sector 15

16 Emission Trends: FSU and Poland CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Mt of CO Former USSR Russia Ukraine Poland Kazakhstan

17 Looking Forward: Future Trends 17

18 Population Projections Russian Population (millions) Rest of FSU Population Russia s Share of FSU Total % % Key Message: Rest of FSU will likely see stronger emissions growth than Russia. Starting from a weaker economic base. 18

19 Russia s s Energy Strategy Production Export Russian demand Optimistic/baseline scenarios Exports stable Demand grows Production grows But is it realistic? Based on policy goals. Production growth seems challenging Demand growth: to date, exceeded projections 19

20 Energy Strategy: Change in GDP and Energy Intensity Change in Intensity: Baseline Scenario GDP as % of 2000, Optimistic Scenario Change in Intensity: Optimistic Scenario GDP as % of 2000, Baseline Scenario 20

21 Energy efficiency: a bargain in Ukraine Mtoe Billion $ Mtoe Bill. $ Power+Coal Energy Efficiency 21

22 Subsidies in FSU Russian natural gas prices: just a fraction of European netback levels, though above Russian production costs Electricity: 2.7 and 2.8 for residential and industrial customers risen in recent years In 1992: FSU $151 B in energy subsidies; today less than ¼ of this, if you ignore the rising external price of natural gas In 2005: $8 billion in Russia for electricity and natural gas; more for heat 22

23 Threats to Growth Energy intensity Rapid shifts in oil prices (up hurts most smaller states, down hurts Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan) Decline in natural gas production 23

24 Dutch Disease: How Vulnerable is Russia s s Economy to the Price of Oil World Bank study showing 25% of Russian GDP from oil and gas; 30% of government revenue Russian data show smaller % Energy s share of GDP has probably grown with the price of oil Also affects Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan If the price of oil drops Russia s economic stabilization fund at over $160B 24

25 Concluding Thoughts Are current energy growth levels sustainable without improvements in energy intensity? Exports of natural gas to China may be less than anticipated The rest of the FSU: Will the poorer FSU states start to see rapid economic growth? What impact will desire to diversity energy supplies have on emissions? Influence of state on energy and emissions trajectories 25

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