NC Demographic Trends Through 2035

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1 NC Demographic Trends Through 2035 House Select Committee on Strategic Transportation Planning and Long Term Funding Solutions February 22, 2016 Rebecca Tippett, University of North Carolina

2 July 1 Population (Millions) North Carolina s Total Population (July 1), Year Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, NCOSBM Projections

3 July 1 Population (Millions) North Carolina s Total Population (July 1), Officially 9th most populous state as of Year Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

4 July 1 Population (Millions) North Carolina s Total Population (July 1), Officially 9th most populous state as of 2014 >10M in Year Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

5 July 1 Population (Millions) North Carolina s Total Population (July 1), Officially 9th most populous state as of 2014 >10M in Year Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM

6 July 1 Population (Millions) North Carolina s Total Population (July 1), M in Officially 9th most populous state as of 2014 >10M in Year Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM

7 Urbanization 50% in 1990 vs. 66% in 2010 Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

8 Population growth will be uneven across North Carolina Projected population growth, Data Source: NC OSBM

9 Nearly all of the fastest growing counties are in major metro areas Projected population growth, Data Source: NC OSBM

10 Many counties outside of major metros projected to lose population Projected population growth, Data Source: NC OSBM

11 Almost all future NC growth projected to occur in urban areas Projected share of state population growth for select North Carolina metropolitan areas Triangle 34% Charlotte 34% Triad 10% Wilmington 7% Asheville 5% All Other Metros 10% No Metro Area 1% Data Source: NC OSBM

12 Two-thirds of NC growth projected to occur in Triangle or Charlotte Projected share of state population growth for select North Carolina metropolitan areas Triangle 34% Charlotte 34% Triad 10% Wilmington 7% Asheville 5% All Other Metros 10% No Metro Area 1% Data Source: NC OSBM

13 Observed growth more uneven than projected Population growth, Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

14 Observed growth suggests Triangle may outpace projections Share of state projected vs. observed growth for select North Carolina metro areas Triangle 34% 40% Charlotte 34% 34% Triad 10% 10% Wilmington 7% 7% Asheville 5% 4% All Other Metros 7% 10% Projected ( ) No Metro Area -2% 1% Observed ( ) Data Sources: NC OSBM, U.S. Census Bureau

15 Concentration of jobs in urban centers drives population shifts Share of state employment in Mecklenburg, Wake, and Durham, Q vs. Q % 2005 (Q2) 2015 (Q2) 13.7% 12.6% 10.7% 4.4% 4.7% Data Source: QCEW, BLS Mecklenburg Wake Durham

16 More than 40% of NC workers work in these 5 counties Net commuting patterns, , , , , , , ,000 Mecklenburg Wake Guilford Durham Residents who Work Elsewhere Resident Workers Non-Resident Workers Forsyth Data Source: Year American Community Survey

17 Average commute to work: 24 minutes Data Source: 2014 American Community Survey

18 Non-car commuting (among 4.4 million workers) 209,100 work at home 54,700 public transit 91,000 bike or walk Data Source: 2014 American Community Survey

19 Half of state s 2 million new residents in next 20 years will be 65+ Projected NC population growth by age, , , , ,000 Data Source: NC OSBM Under to to

20 By 2035, more than 1 in 5 NC residents will be 65 or older Projected population share 65+, NC vs. US, Population Proportion % US NC 20% 21.4% 20.6% 15% 10% 13% 5% 0% Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM Year

21 54 counties projected to have fewer children by 2035 Counties with projected declines in child population (0-17), Data Source: NC OSBM

22 42 counties projected to have fewer young adults by 2035 Counties with projected declines in young adult population (18-34), Data Source: NC OSBM

23 53 counties projected to have fewer working age adults by 2035 Counties with projected declines in prime working age adult population (35-64), Data Source: NC OSBM

24 Only one county projected to have fewer older adults by 2035 Counties with projected declines in older adult population (65+), Data Source: NC OSBM

25 Proportion of 18+ Population Baby Boomers are currently largest adult generation in NC Generational composition of North Carolina's 18+ population, % 40% Millennial ( ) 35% Boomers ( ) 30% 25% Gen X ( ) 20% 15% Silent ( ) 10% Gen Z (2005- ) 5% Greatest ( -1927) 0% Data Source: NC OSBM Year

26 Proportion of 18+ Population Millennial adults will outnumber Boomers in NC by 2017 Generational composition of North Carolina's 18+ population, % 40% 35% Boomers ( ) 31% Millennial in 2017 Millennial ( ) 30% 25% Gen X ( ) 20% 15% Silent ( ) 10% Gen Z (2005- ) 5% Greatest ( -1927) 0% Data Source: NC OSBM Year

27 Housing Unit Demand M households +793K homeowners Source: Carolina Demography projections using ACS, CPS, and NC OSBM data

28 Increases in vacation homes also impact infrastructure demands Vacation home change by NC census tract, 2000 to 2010 Loss of 100 or more 5 to to -5-4 to to or more Data Source: Carolina Demography

29 We help organizations make data-driven decisions. DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH AND CONSULTING Contact us: (919) Learn more:

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